March 2024 Weather in the PNW

[Front Ranger]

1 hour ago, the_convergence_zone said:

The dice was loaded that year but sometimes the weather ends up cooperating. The odds were against that being a low fire year.

Based on? I haven't seen much if any correlation between spring precip and the following fire season. 

[TT-SEA]

Lovely day.

[Cascadia_Wx]

Here’s only looking at average MAX, and though the 6th

[Front Ranger]

1 hour ago, Deweydog said:

They did this as far back as 2001, at least on the state level. Myself and a few others did some work up around my boss’ property at Alta Lake and there was reimbursement through DNR if I recall correctly. It went to my boss but he paid it forward. Worked out pretty well since that fire season took off like wildfire in August. All it took was one nocturnal dry lightning event that rolled up the valley and it seemed like the whole county was in flames.

Yeah, dry lightning events are probably the single largest factor in how bad a fire season gets. Almost any that occur from mid July on, even with seasonal summer weather, will likely cause major issues. 

Of course, if it's been a hot/dry summer, that makes it worse.

[Cascadia_Wx]

4 minutes ago, Front Ranger said:

Yeah, dry lightning events are probably the single largest factor in how bad a fire season gets. Almost any that occur from mid July on, even with seasonal summer weather, will likely cause major issues. 

Of course, if it's been a hot/dry summer, that makes it worse.

Great points. I was also just reading some VERY compelling research about water being wet.

Hint: Turns out it is!

Edited March 7 by Cascadia_Wx

[snow_wizard]

1 minute ago, Front Ranger said:

Yeah, dry lightning events are probably the single largest factor in how bad a fire season gets. Almost any that occur from mid July on, even with seasonal summer weather, will likely cause major issues. 

Of course, if it's been a hot/dry summer, that makes it worse.

The fire outbreak in Sept 2020 was just ridiculous though.  In that case it was sparks from Labor Day weekend campfires that resulted in much of the insanity.   That was the perfect storm of a long dry period followed by a dry Canadian front that sent humidity levels plummeting, with strong winds.

[Front Ranger]

15 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

Great points. I was also just reading some VERY compelling research about water being wet.

Have any stats that show a significant correlation between spring weather and the fire season?

[Front Ranger]

Just now, snow_wizard said:

The fire outbreak in Sept 2020 was just ridiculous though.  In that case it was sparks from Labor Day weekend campfires that resulted in much of the insanity.   That was the perfect storm of a long dry period followed by a dry Canadian front that sent humidity levels plummeting, with strong winds.

Indeed. All sorts of factors can play into it, but dry lightning and wind dwarf everything else. 

[bainbridgekid]

16 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

Great points. I was also just reading some VERY compelling research about water being wet.

Hint: Turns out it is!

There's a lot of people that would argue water isn't actually wet, but that it just makes other things wet.

https://www.sciencefocus.com/science/is-water-wet

[snow_wizard]

I ended up with a pair of 25 degree lows out of this.  Pretty respectable.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Just now, snow_wizard said:

I ended up with a pair of 25 degree lows out of this.  Pretty respectable.

What is the latest Seattle has recorded 4 inches of snow?

[TT-SEA]

In case anyone wants to see a 15-day AI version of the 12Z ECMWF... sort of goes crazy with east coast troughing.  

[SilverFallsAndrew]

6 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

In case anyone wants to see a 15-day AI version of the 12Z ECMWF... sort of goes crazy with east coast troughing.  

Hard pass

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Obviously we should all be concerned about this upcoming pattern, the encouraging news is the anomalies don’t appear to be focused over us for more than a day or two. 

[TT-SEA]

2 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Obviously we should all be concerned about this upcoming pattern, the encouraging news is the anomalies don’t appear to be focused over us for more than a day or two. 

Ridge probably only lasts a couple hours.   And passes through at night with snow again by the next morning.  

[Port Angeles Foothiller]

13 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

In case anyone wants to see a 15-day AI version of the 12Z ECMWF... sort of goes crazy with east coast troughing.  

Queue the Phil return. 

[Front Ranger]

47 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

I ended up with a pair of 25 degree lows out of this.  Pretty respectable.

OLM hit 21 and 22, tying their record lows both days.

[Rubus Leucodermis]

4 hours ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

Models are really digging their heels in for record breaking ridging starting later next week. Because when does ridging not bring record highs anymore? Could get pretty ugly. It’s a shame we couldn’t get to enjoy a typical March warm spell with some 60s to around 70. Right now upper air progs would support temps getting close to 80 at face value  

It’s not unusual for climates that have 110+ summer records to have records in the 80’s in March.

[snow_wizard]

1 hour ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

What is the latest Seattle has recorded 4 inches of snow?

Probably Dec 2021.  Just a lot of little ones since.

[snow_wizard]

33 minutes ago, Front Ranger said:

OLM hit 21 and 22, tying their record lows both days.

I think this answers the question whether their thermometer is broken or not.

[snow_wizard]

I guess you could argue we were due for a huge ridge given how easy we got off with the strong Nino this winter.  Still time for big changes in the models though.

[Front Ranger]

2 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

I think this answers the question whether their thermometer is broken or not.

Perhaps. SEA is still crushing them in the departure department so far this month.

[snow_wizard]

3 minutes ago, Front Ranger said:

Perhaps. SEA is still crushing them in the departure department so far this month.

Yeah.  It has been a really odd season in that regard.  The first half of the cold season I kicked OLM's arse for cold mins.

[LowerGarfield]

15 hours ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

I find it humorous our idiotic legislature approved permanent daylight savings a few years ago and now has approved permanent standard time…

Looks like it will be shelved until the next session.  Standard time does make more sense but it wouldn't have been wise to leave Clark Co and border counties on a different time.

[Frontal Snowsquall]

41 minutes ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

It’s not unusual for climates that have 110+ summer records to have records in the 80’s in March.

PDX hit 100 back in May 1983. I think that’s the next big heat record to fall.

[the_convergence_zone]

30 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

I guess you could argue we were due for a huge ridge given how easy we got off with the strong Nino this winter.  Still time for big changes in the models though.

I'm just glad we are nowhere near the North Atlantic.

[Cascadia_Wx]

32 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

Yeah.  It has been a really odd season in that regard.  The first half of the cold season I kicked OLM's arse for cold mins.

That’s because OLM’s sensor wasn’t working properly then.

[LowerGarfield]

7 hours ago, TT-SEA said:

Sun would rise at 3:50 a.m. and set at 7:50 p.m. there if we didn't move clocks ahead and move that hour of daylight from when you are sleeping to the evening.  

Yup. I prefer Standard but we are too far north and I am too far east to have permanent standard time. Sunrises before 4am are a no thank you. That said, sunrises at 830 or 9am in some parts of WA in Dec with permanent DST are also horrible. We need the changing of clocks here.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

34 minutes ago, Frontal Snowsquall said:

PDX hit 100 back in May 1983. I think that’s the next big heat record to fall.

God that makes me sick just to think of that heat. 80 is one thing but 100 is insane. It would be like hitting 10 degrees in April, just insane.

Edited March 7 by MR.SNOWMIZER

[SnowWillarrive]

3 minutes ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

God that makes me sick just to think of that heat. 80 is one thing but 100 is insane. It would be like hitting 10 degrees in April, just insane.

Would be nice to hit 10 degrees in April for once. 

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

5 minutes ago, SnowWillarrive said:

Would be nice to hit 10 degrees in April for once. 

I have had ten degrees at my cabin in april a few times.

[LowerGarfield]

2 hours ago, Front Ranger said:

Indeed. All sorts of factors can play into it, but dry lightning and wind dwarf everything else. 

That's what causes the wildfires in my part of SE WA. We get more convective events than the west side does. We have an early season which has the highest risk of hail damage or severe weather around May. Then in July and August we frequently get dry lightning which simmers for days or weeks before exploding with the high winds we get coming off the Blues.

[Cascadia_Wx]

21 minutes ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

God that makes me sick just to think of that heat. 80 is one thing but 100 is insane. It would be like hitting 10 degrees in April, just insane.

Some people really get off on it I guess.

[Cascadia_Wx]

18 minutes ago, SnowWillarrive said:

Would be nice to hit 10 degrees in April for once. 

That would be just as bad as hitting 95 in April IMO. Would really do a number on the plants coming to life. On the west side at least. East of the mountains or in the Cascades it’s not unheard of.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

1 minute ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

Some people really get off on it I guess.

Some people enjoy throwing a lit cigarette out the window as well.

[Sunriver Snow Zone]

44/0 day, and currently 41. Thought it would get a few degrees warmer but I'm fine with it staying cooler, it helped preserve our snow. Probably won't get nearly as cold tonight, maybe mid or upper teens if we're lucky.

[TT-SEA]

Some people are obsessed with hurricanes and tornadoes too.    People being fascinated by nature's extremes doesn't change nature in any way.    No idea why it matters.   I don't like extreme heat.   But trying to control people's feelings doesn't change the fact that it happens anyways.  

[Sunriver Snow Zone]

22 minutes ago, SnowWillarrive said:

Would be nice to hit 10 degrees in April for once. 

In the time I've lived in Central oregon, I've never seen it get to 10 degrees in April, coldest we've had is 11.5 degrees in April 2015.

[Timmy Supercell]

4 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Some people are obsessed with hurricanes and tornadoes too.    People being fascinated by nature's extremes doesn't change nature in any way.    No idea why it matters.   I don't like extreme heat.   But trying to control people's feelings doesn't change the fact that it happens anyways.  

I would be one of the storm chasers that would walk with structure photography and a lightning show at sunset. Don't need to be across the street from an EF5..

[ShawniganLake]

4 hours ago, the_convergence_zone said:

Do you have an example of one of these massive fires that we let burn? From my perusing of inciweb it seems like they always have at least some resources on them and there is always an effort to get them contained to at least some extent. I only recall seeing small ones in late season being left alone entirely. Fires like Norse Peak burned a ton of wilderness but they were still working that fire like crazy. Happy to be proven wrong on that one. 

Good to know about the controlled burns as well as the underbrush program that @MR.SNOWMIZER is describing. 

Many of the large fires in BC in recent years have been classified as “modified response” which means they are allowed to burn within pre determined boundaries.  If they reach a trigger point then resources are dispatched to try to protect values.  We messed with Mother Nature for too long and things are out of balance.  Too much underbrush and too much dead wood/ standing dead timber.  She is trying to bring things back into balance and I’m not really sure there is much we can do to stop it.