Cascadia_Wx Posted March 15 Report Share Posted March 15 Looks like the GFS is getting back on board with the quicker crash idea. Could stay cool for a bit after that. 3 1 1 Quote Summer grows while Winter goes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted March 15 Report Share Posted March 15 (edited) Only made it down to 35 due to some low scud clouds. Edited March 15 by MossMan 1 Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cascadia_Wx Posted March 15 Report Share Posted March 15 4 minutes ago, Front Ranger said: Orange man bad. Orange oceans worse. Coral reefs and fisheries are dying off. LOL!!! 1 Quote Summer grows while Winter goes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
westcoastexpat Posted March 15 Report Share Posted March 15 10 hours ago, snow_wizard said: The GEM and GFS both bring chilly north winds to the Puget Sound area early in week two. Love this type of stuff. I thought temperatures between 35-45 with clouds and rain was your least favourite weather - surprised you're rooting for it? 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RaleighHillsRunner Posted March 15 Report Share Posted March 15 48 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said: Looks like the GFS is getting back on board with the quicker crash idea. Could stay cool for a bit after that. Making the most of the next 5 days for sure, gonna be an epic St. Patrick’s Day Bummer my only week off will be cold and soggy but them’s the breaks. Still better than working 1 Quote Portland | Raleigh Hills/West Sylvan | 350’ ”All models are wrong, some are useful.” -G. Box Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlTahoe Posted March 15 Report Share Posted March 15 12 hours ago, Sunriver Snow Zone said: "Only 31inches" You constantly remind your wife that 2" is giant, but now your standards have changed? Lol I say only because the models and the Nws were talking about a top 5 all time snow storm and possibly breaking the 24 hour record at the snow lab on Donner summit. Reality was like 50% of the forecast. My total was 31" which is no big deal over 3 days. I had 6 different days last winter that dropped more snow than any day during this storm. So even with a good accumulation it was a bit of a bust. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the_convergence_zone Posted March 15 Report Share Posted March 15 Fortunately the absurd current global SST anomalies probably have a big natural variability component that is dominating over some of the other Tonga/ship aerosol theories, but it's still bad when the SSTs in the Atlantic MDR are already at their June normals in March. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted March 15 Report Share Posted March 15 Looks like we are heading back to deep troughing next weekend regardless of how the ridge breaks down. 1 1 Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Slushy Inch Posted March 15 Report Share Posted March 15 16 minutes ago, TT-SEA said: Looks like we are heading back to deep troughing next weekend regardless of how the ridge breaks down. Was about to post about gem Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted March 15 Report Share Posted March 15 1 minute ago, Slushy Inch said: Was about to post about gem GEM even shows lowland snow by days 9 and 10. GFS is not quite there... yet. 3 2 1 Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted March 15 Report Share Posted March 15 Pretty historic looking GEM run. If the 500mb setup shown were to verify this could easily happen. Big if of course. 2 1 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phishy Wx Posted March 15 Report Share Posted March 15 34 minutes ago, the_convergence_zone said: Fortunately the absurd current global SST anomalies probably have a big natural variability component that is dominating over some of the other Tonga/ship aerosol theories, but it's still bad when the SSTs in the Atlantic MDR are already at their June normals in March. it's terrible. and terrible for corals 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted March 15 Report Share Posted March 15 3 minutes ago, Phishy Wx said: Tony the Tiger really says some dense shiit sometimes did you fall on your head dude? Oceanic heat waves are worse than terrestrial heat waves any day of the week figured you were a Trumper, thanks for confirming Totally uncalled for. 3 1 1 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted March 15 Report Share Posted March 15 2 hours ago, MossMan said: Only made it down to 35 due to some low scud clouds. D**n scud! Dropped to 32 here. Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Port Angeles Foothiller Posted March 15 Report Share Posted March 15 9 minutes ago, TT-SEA said: GEM even shows lowland snow by days 9 and 10. GFS is not quite there... yet. I can't vomit on this enough, especially if this weekend causes some of my orchard to bloom. 2 3 Quote PWS: https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KWAPORTA220 2023-2024 Snow Total: 18" (6 events) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted March 15 Report Share Posted March 15 1 hour ago, westcoastexpat said: I thought temperatures between 35-45 with clouds and rain was your least favourite weather - surprised you're rooting for it? I was commenting on the fact many models were showing a Canadian cold front dropping through the area. Usually those clear it out. 2 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted March 15 Report Share Posted March 15 Just now, Port Angeles Foothiller said: I can't vomit on this enough, especially if this weekend causes some of my orchard to bloom. Definitely expect late frost this season. 2 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sunriver Snow Zone Posted March 15 Report Share Posted March 15 10 minutes ago, snow_wizard said: Pretty historic looking GEM run. If the 500mb setup shown were to verify this could easily happen. Big if of course. Gives me only a trace of snow, and gives some plsved in the Puget Sound 4+", wow! Quote Coldest temp this winter: -7 Jan 13th Snow depth at Mount Bachelor (last updated April 29th) 88" Snow depth at my home (updated April 29th) late season 1"! 23-24 seasonal snowfall at home (updated April 29th) 92"!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cascadia_Wx Posted March 15 Report Share Posted March 15 3 minutes ago, snow_wizard said: Definitely expect late frost this season. Moving to an area notorious for late frosts then complaining bitterly about it every year seems rational. 1 1 Quote Summer grows while Winter goes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sunriver Snow Zone Posted March 15 Report Share Posted March 15 36 at my station, low of 24. Today is unfortunately the last safe(ish) day in the backcountry with this amazing weather, Avalanche danger is gonna be super high this weekend because of all of the fresh snow from the last few weeks, ontop of a rock solid layer of snow from January. The top layer of snow will soften up and could easily break off. What a waste of such nice weather. 1 Quote Coldest temp this winter: -7 Jan 13th Snow depth at Mount Bachelor (last updated April 29th) 88" Snow depth at my home (updated April 29th) late season 1"! 23-24 seasonal snowfall at home (updated April 29th) 92"!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Port Angeles Foothiller Posted March 15 Report Share Posted March 15 19 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said: Moving to an area notorious for late frosts then complaining bitterly about it every year seems rational. Late frost is fine. Not with active blooms. Also, I don't really care about your opinion. 1 1 2 1 2 Quote PWS: https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KWAPORTA220 2023-2024 Snow Total: 18" (6 events) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cascadia_Wx Posted March 15 Report Share Posted March 15 Just now, Port Angeles Foothiller said: Late frost is fine. Not with active blooms. Also, I don't really care about your opinion. That’s cool. It’s your right not to care. I respect that. But my opinion is you shoulda moved somewhere warmer. Even 1,000’ lower in elevation would probably make a big difference up there. #liveandlearn 1 Quote Summer grows while Winter goes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawniganLake Posted March 15 Report Share Posted March 15 2 hours ago, MossMan said: Only made it down to 35 due to some low scud clouds. We had some frost this morning. It was sadly already melted by 9am. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cascadia_Wx Posted March 15 Report Share Posted March 15 Looking really good: 1 Quote Summer grows while Winter goes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted March 15 Report Share Posted March 15 4 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said: Looking really good: Starting to feel I may not have had my last snowfall. 2 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TigerWoodsLibido Posted March 15 Author Report Share Posted March 15 Are we really gonna get cold again? Lol. 1 Quote Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats: Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024) Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024) Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024) Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024) Total snowfall: 0.0" Total ice: 2.25” Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9") Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F) Last White Christmas: 1990 Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0 Personal Stats: Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F) Last White Christmas: 2008 Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0" Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4 Venmo GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2 My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope 24 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Port Angeles Foothiller Posted March 15 Report Share Posted March 15 16 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said: That’s cool. It’s your right not to care. I respect that. But my opinion is you shoulda moved somewhere warmer. Even 1,000’ lower in elevation would probably make a big difference up there. #liveandlearn I love where I live. That's what you don't understand. Its normal as an orchard grower to be unhappy about an early bloom busted by cold. If i'm lucky some of the early bloomers (cherry/plum/peach) will won't bust their nut this weekend. I have hardy varieties, so even if they do some snow cover could protect them. Might just be an off year due to lack of pollinators at this time. It happens about 50/50, but still a bummer. Cost of doing business on my plot. 5 1 Quote PWS: https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KWAPORTA220 2023-2024 Snow Total: 18" (6 events) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted March 15 Report Share Posted March 15 5 minutes ago, TigerWoodsLibido said: Are we really gonna get cold again? Lol. My wife GUARANTEES it. She’s having a lot of fun with her recent acronym-free long range prowess. 1 1 1 Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted March 15 Report Share Posted March 15 7 minutes ago, TigerWoodsLibido said: Are we really gonna get cold again? Lol. Money back or else. 1 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted March 15 Report Share Posted March 15 12Z ECMWF looks like it wants to turn more wet than cold... compared to other models. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Port Angeles Foothiller Posted March 15 Report Share Posted March 15 2 minutes ago, TT-SEA said: 12Z ECMWF looks like it wants to turn more wet than cold... compared to other models. I wonder how close to the event it will take for all models to agree. This has been a difficult evolution. 1 Quote PWS: https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KWAPORTA220 2023-2024 Snow Total: 18" (6 events) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawniganLake Posted March 15 Report Share Posted March 15 21 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said: Starting to feel I may not have had my last snowfall. The only question is how much? You’re in the heart of prime snow season down there. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted March 15 Report Share Posted March 15 3 hours ago, Cascadia_Wx said: Coral reefs and fisheries are dying off. LOL!!! Just a silly color joke. And not the racial kind. My avatar character is also orange. 1 Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cascadia_Wx Posted March 15 Report Share Posted March 15 11 minutes ago, Front Ranger said: Just a silly color joke. And not the racial kind. My avatar character is also orange. So is the weenie react 1 Quote Summer grows while Winter goes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted March 15 Report Share Posted March 15 1 hour ago, Phishy Wx said: Tony the Tiger really says some dense shiit sometimes did you fall on your head dude? Oceanic heat waves are worse than terrestrial heat waves any day of the week figured you were a Trumper, thanks for confirming Never been a Trumper, never will be. 2 1 Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cascadia_Wx Posted March 15 Report Share Posted March 15 Looks like all the 39s at PDX this morning were fakes. Low of 40 there. VUO fell to 36 though. #betterstation 1 Quote Summer grows while Winter goes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Omegaraptor Posted March 15 Report Share Posted March 15 31 minutes ago, Port Angeles Foothiller said: I wonder how close to the event it will take for all models to agree. This has been a difficult evolution. This always seems to be a rough time of year for model accuracy. 2 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the_convergence_zone Posted March 15 Report Share Posted March 15 48 minutes ago, Port Angeles Foothiller said: I love where I live. That's what you don't understand. Its normal as an orchard grower to be unhappy about an early bloom busted by cold. If i'm lucky some of the early bloomers (cherry/plum/peach) will won't bust their nut this weekend. I have hardy varieties, so even if they do some snow cover could protect them. Might just be an off year due to lack of pollinators at this time. It happens about 50/50, but still a bummer. Cost of doing business on my plot. Yep, basically every fruit grower in central/eastern Washington is on edge this time of year. A cold snap after a warm spell can be disastrous. 5 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted March 15 Report Share Posted March 15 12Z EPS keeps the really cold air to the east. Might not get that cold... particularly if it turns wet. 2 Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Port Angeles Foothiller Posted March 15 Report Share Posted March 15 7 minutes ago, the_convergence_zone said: Yep, basically every fruit grower in central/eastern Washington is on edge this time of year. A cold snap after a warm spell can be disastrous. I guess they should all move. #liveandlearn 1 1 Quote PWS: https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KWAPORTA220 2023-2024 Snow Total: 18" (6 events) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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