Phil Posted October 6, 2020 Report Share Posted October 6, 2020 3 hours ago, iFred said: In July, all of the seasonal forecasts were pointing a picture with a strong SE ridge, little to no blocking in Greenland, and a strong ridge the Northern Pacific that drifts east by March. On one hand, this looks like default Nina, on the other, these are some serious looking patterns. FWIW, it seams that both the CANSIPS and Euro monthlies have been halfway decent with the broad strokes. So maybe there is something to this. I’m sure someone will douse water on this emerging enthusiasm and explain how strong Ninas are only good for east of the Cascades and we’ll probably just have 50° and rain. Well, a Greenland vortex/+NAM wouldn’t bode as well for arctic air out there, at least nowadays, since it manifests as a +TNH pattern more often than not. But generally speaking, if it’s a -PNA winter, then there’s less likely to be a vortex over Greenland. And seasonal models will usually miss that teleconnection. 1 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rubus Leucodermis Posted October 6, 2020 Report Share Posted October 6, 2020 A nice sunny 65°F high this afternoon in Bellingham. Quote It's called clown range for a reason. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted October 6, 2020 Report Share Posted October 6, 2020 11 minutes ago, bainbridgekid said: Congrats. Fun number. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TigerWoodsLibido Posted October 6, 2020 Author Report Share Posted October 6, 2020 72/47. Once the clouds burned off it was a beautiful day. Quote Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats: Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024) Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024) Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024) Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024) Total snowfall: 0.0" Total ice: 2.25” Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9") Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F) Last White Christmas: 1990 Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0 Personal Stats: Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F) Last White Christmas: 2008 Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0" Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4 Venmo GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2 My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope 24 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted October 6, 2020 Report Share Posted October 6, 2020 2 hours ago, TT-SEA said: 69 here today. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted October 6, 2020 Report Share Posted October 6, 2020 20 minutes ago, bainbridgekid said: Congrats. I wonder if the 69 happened inside or outside... 1 1 1 Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TigerWoodsLibido Posted October 6, 2020 Author Report Share Posted October 6, 2020 19 minutes ago, MossMan said: I wonder if the 69 happened inside or outside... Yes 1 1 Quote Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats: Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024) Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024) Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024) Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024) Total snowfall: 0.0" Total ice: 2.25” Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9") Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F) Last White Christmas: 1990 Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0 Personal Stats: Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F) Last White Christmas: 2008 Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0" Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4 Venmo GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2 My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope 24 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted October 6, 2020 Report Share Posted October 6, 2020 Less than 69 days until the start of WINTER! 1 Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow drift Posted October 6, 2020 Report Share Posted October 6, 2020 1 hour ago, El_Nina said: I got stuck in a snow drift on a super windy day up at Meadows in January. My type of weather ....let's hope for many opportunities this winter 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted October 6, 2020 Report Share Posted October 6, 2020 1 hour ago, bainbridgekid said: Congrats. 1 Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted October 6, 2020 Report Share Posted October 6, 2020 Those EPAC waters are frigid now. Also an interesting +PMM/warm NPAC and cold-phase SPAC setting up here. Diametrically opposed. 1 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meatyorologist Posted October 6, 2020 Report Share Posted October 6, 2020 3 minutes ago, Phil said: Those EPAC waters are frigid now. Also an interesting +PMM/warm NPAC and cold-phase SPAC setting up here. Diametrically opposed. In what way could this contribute to my confirmation bias for a cold winter? 1 1 Quote Weather stats for MBY Snowfall: -Total snowfall since joining: 50.25" -2018-19: 21" -2019-20: 2.5" -2020-21: 13" -2021-22: 8.75" -2022-23: 5.75" -2023-24*: 0.25" -Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024 -Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021 -Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019 Temperatures: -Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021 -Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021 -Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted October 6, 2020 Report Share Posted October 6, 2020 00z GFS 10 Day Rainfall Totals 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted October 6, 2020 Report Share Posted October 6, 2020 Decent GFS run tonight, but still not as pretty as the recent ECMWF runs as far as chilly weather potential. The EPS has been trending consistently lower on the PNA moving forward so it strongly supports the operational. I ended up with a 68 / 48 temperature range today and currently already down to 54 under clear skies. Summer is done. Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted October 6, 2020 Report Share Posted October 6, 2020 Just now, DJ Droppin said: 00z GFS 10 Day Rainfall Totals It seems the GFS wants to go more wet and the ECMWF more chilly. It will be interesting to see how it plays out. 1 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted October 6, 2020 Report Share Posted October 6, 2020 00z GFS 10 Day Snowfall Totals 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted October 6, 2020 Report Share Posted October 6, 2020 1 hour ago, Phil said: Those EPAC waters are frigid now. Also an interesting +PMM/warm NPAC and cold-phase SPAC setting up here. Diametrically opposed. I expect that NPAC warm pool is going to undergo some big time restructuring over the next couple of weeks. Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Blob Posted October 6, 2020 Report Share Posted October 6, 2020 I'm just hoping to break PDXs cold record of -3. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted October 6, 2020 Report Share Posted October 6, 2020 Just now, snow_wizard said: It seems the GFS wants to go more wet and the ECMWF more chilly. It will be interesting to see how it plays out. I liked seeing that blocking on the 12z EURO. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted October 6, 2020 Report Share Posted October 6, 2020 00z GFS Ensembles PORTLAND SEATTLE Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GHweatherChris Posted October 6, 2020 Report Share Posted October 6, 2020 11 minutes ago, DJ Droppin said: I liked seeing that blocking on the 12z EURO. Why did you stop posting on the PDX Facebook group? 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted October 6, 2020 Report Share Posted October 6, 2020 2 minutes ago, GHweatherChris said: Why did you stop posting on the PDX Facebook group? Facebook disabled my account. No reason, no explanation, nothing. Censorship. 6z GFS in 2 hours 44 minutes 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted October 6, 2020 Report Share Posted October 6, 2020 00Z ECMWF looks very different... back to repeating a familiar pattern. 1 Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted October 6, 2020 Report Share Posted October 6, 2020 00z ECMWF 10 Day GIFs: 500mb Height Anomaly Images: 10 Day Rainfall Totals, 10 Day Snowfall Totals 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TigerWoodsLibido Posted October 6, 2020 Author Report Share Posted October 6, 2020 It's officially the night shift!! Got the playlist going! Down to 52F. Quote Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats: Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024) Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024) Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024) Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024) Total snowfall: 0.0" Total ice: 2.25” Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9") Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F) Last White Christmas: 1990 Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0 Personal Stats: Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F) Last White Christmas: 2008 Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0" Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4 Venmo GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2 My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope 24 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted October 6, 2020 Report Share Posted October 6, 2020 Ended up with morning clouds and afternoon sun. 73/52 today. 54 currently. Could fall below 50 tonight which we have not yet accomplished this month. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawniganLake Posted October 6, 2020 Report Share Posted October 6, 2020 41 minutes ago, TigerWoodsLibido said: It's officially the night shift!! Got the playlist going! Down to 52F. Euro and EPS kind of killed the night shift tonight. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted October 6, 2020 Report Share Posted October 6, 2020 9 minutes ago, ShawniganLake said: Euro and EPS kind of killed the night shift tonight. The handling of the cutoff low over the Western Gulf of Alaska in the 5 to 10 day period completely changed tonight. Obviously with such an uncertain feature subsequent runs could get better again. Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted October 6, 2020 Report Share Posted October 6, 2020 12 minutes ago, snow_wizard said: The handling of the cutoff low over the Western Gulf of Alaska in the 5 to 10 day period completely changed tonight. Obviously with such an uncertain feature subsequent runs could get better again. Quite possible. 6z GFS in 1 hour Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted October 6, 2020 Report Share Posted October 6, 2020 1:49 AM Temp: 51.8 Near West Gresham Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TigerWoodsLibido Posted October 6, 2020 Author Report Share Posted October 6, 2020 Down to 46F. Chilly, pleasant night. Quote Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats: Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024) Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024) Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024) Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024) Total snowfall: 0.0" Total ice: 2.25” Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9") Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F) Last White Christmas: 1990 Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0 Personal Stats: Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F) Last White Christmas: 2008 Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0" Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4 Venmo GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2 My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope 24 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TacomaWaWx Posted October 6, 2020 Report Share Posted October 6, 2020 Down to 53 this morning. Thick fog is back this AM. Quote Tacoma WA elevation 300’ Monthly rainfall-3.56” Warm season rainfall-11.14” Max temp-88 +80 highs-2 +85 highs-2 +90 highs-0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rubus Leucodermis Posted October 6, 2020 Report Share Posted October 6, 2020 Fog and 47°F this morning. Very October. 1 Quote It's called clown range for a reason. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Timmy Supercell Posted October 6, 2020 Report Share Posted October 6, 2020 34 and chilly. No fog though, but that will come sooner or later. Heat running now and will probably have it off in a couple hours 1 2 Quote Ashland, KY Weather '23-'24 Winter Snowfall - 5.50" First freeze: 11/1 (32) Minimum: 2 on 1/17 Measurable snows: 4 Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19) Thunders: 16 1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15 3/26, 3/30, 3/31, 4/2, 4/3, 4/8, Severe storms: 2 ------------------------------------------------------- [Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021] https://imgur.com/SuGTijl Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TigerWoodsLibido Posted October 6, 2020 Author Report Share Posted October 6, 2020 Got down to 46F. Coldest reading this season so far. 1 1 2 Quote Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats: Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024) Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024) Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024) Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024) Total snowfall: 0.0" Total ice: 2.25” Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9") Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F) Last White Christmas: 1990 Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0 Personal Stats: Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F) Last White Christmas: 2008 Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0" Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4 Venmo GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2 My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope 24 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GHweatherChris Posted October 6, 2020 Report Share Posted October 6, 2020 Night shift won't be needed until 11/20 per management. 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted October 6, 2020 Report Share Posted October 6, 2020 23 minutes ago, TigerWoodsLibido said: Got down to 46F. Coldest reading this season so far. I remember you saying you hit 45 just the other day. 2 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TigerWoodsLibido Posted October 6, 2020 Author Report Share Posted October 6, 2020 21 minutes ago, Jesse said: I remember you saying you hit 45 just the other day. I'm an idiot, coldest reading of October so far. We hit 44F on 2 occasions according to ACIS back in Sept. 2 Quote Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats: Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024) Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024) Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024) Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024) Total snowfall: 0.0" Total ice: 2.25” Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9") Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F) Last White Christmas: 1990 Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0 Personal Stats: Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F) Last White Christmas: 2008 Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0" Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4 Venmo GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2 My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope 24 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted October 6, 2020 Report Share Posted October 6, 2020 Foggy with a low of 48 here. First sub-50 low of the month to date. 52 currently. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted October 6, 2020 Report Share Posted October 6, 2020 Just now, TigerWoodsLibido said: I'm an idiot, coldest reading of October so far. We hit 44F on 2 occasions according to ACIS back in Sept. Nah. I totally see how that could be confused. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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