December 2020 Weather Observations for the PNW

[BLI snowman]

9 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Good lord the models are in the wilderness right now. We can write off the first half of January at this point. 

Seems like the PV is going to take a beating but until the Pacific and MJO cooperate it won't really matter. We're still a ways from that happening. Aleutian low sits in place until the 10th at least.

[Rubus Leucodermis]

I don’t know why so many people get down in the dumps when the long-range models are crap. Model accuracy has been crap this year. The solstice snow didn’t even show up until four or five days out. A white New Year’s Day could easily be in the cards and we just don’t know it yet.

[Timmy Supercell]

More and more behind other years here. At least '11-'12 featured some November snow events. I'd be around 7" right now that season. Well I could blame probably some major shadows that happened here last month.
I had like 9 days in Nov I observed snow falling. So something was amiss. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

5 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

Seems like the PV is going to take a beating but until the Pacific and MJO cooperate it won't really matter. We're still a ways from that happening. Aleutian low sits in place until the 10th at least.

Makes us realize how special years like

2016-17, 1992-93 really were. 

[TigerWoodsLibido]

2 minutes ago, Timmy_Supercell said:

More and more behind other years here. At least '11-'12 featured some November snow events. I'd be around 7" right now that season. Well I could blame probably some major shadows that happened here last month.
I had like 9 days in Nov I observed snow falling. So something was amiss. 

We are currently in 29th place out of my 30 so far.

[Blizzard777]

7 minutes ago, Brian_in_Leavenworth said:

Yup.  We had 5 inchesl yesterday afternoon and evening.  This snow will stick around, as the polar jet will eventually head our way and give a lot more snow to our area.  Last year it seems we got the southern jet and the systems were warm.  So it won't be bitter cold, but seasonal temps will give us lots of snow.

So many good memories there including one morning walking in 12 inch snow to the waters edge and sat.  Enjoyed the sunrise while the river was steaming away as the temp out was zero degrees. No wind so it didn’t feel that cold but the sunrise was amazing with everything else going on.  

[BLI snowman]

Just now, Rubus Leucodermis said:

I don’t know why so many people get down in the dumps when the long-range models are crap. Model accuracy has been crap this year. The solstice snow didn’t even show up until four or five days out. A white New Year’s Day could easily be in the cards and we just don’t know it yet.

The solstice storm represented a fairly minor, mesoscale event and for all intents and purposes didn't reflect a larger scale pattern change at all. It was a fun little event for the folks that got snow but it wasn't indicative of the kinds of favorable synoptic scale details that most of us really care about. Features which tend to show their hand much further out on the models.

[Timmy Supercell]

4 minutes ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

I don’t know why so many people get down in the dumps when the long-range models are crap. Model accuracy has been crap this year. The solstice snow didn’t even show up until four or five days out. A white New Year’s Day could easily be in the cards and we just don’t know it yet.

Didn't someone just share a post from late Jan 2019 yesterday, reminding us not to take long range with more than a grain of salt? 

That post was gold by the way. 

[Timmy Supercell]

5 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Makes us realize how special years like

2016-17, 1992-93 really were. 

Yeah 92-93 is a special one. Both Dec and Jan were two consecutive top-tier snowfall months. I couldn't say that with 16-17, where Jan was the only super snowy one here.

I made some notes using data from the old station; Dec 1992 was the 2nd snowiest, and Jan 1993 was 8/9th snowiest just under 1943 by like a half inch.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

7 minutes ago, Timmy_Supercell said:

Yeah 92-93 is a special one. Both Dec and Jan were two consecutive top-tier snowfall months. I couldn't say that with 16-17, where Jan was the only super snowy one here.

I made some notes using data from the old station; Dec 1992 was the 2nd snowiest, and Jan 1993 was 8/9th snowiest just under 1943 by like a half inch.

2016-17 was like the 21st century version of 1992-93. 

[Brian_in_Leavenworth]

10 minutes ago, Timmy_Supercell said:

Didn't someone just share a post from late Jan 2019 yesterday, reminding us not to take long range with more than a grain of salt? 

That post was gold by the way. 

Mossman did.  And it was the same thing in late November and early December 2008.

On the other hand, there are years where people are complaining about nothing interesting happening, and then nothing interesting happens, so they end up being right.

On another note, GFS V16 is a bit more progressive and doesn't show as strong of a block over the PNW as the regular GFS does.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

All but assured now we will not have a great January. Another year as the world turns. 

[TigerWoodsLibido]

1 minute ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

All but assured now we will not have a great January. Another year as the world turns. 

Juneuary

[Timmy Supercell]

3 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

2016-17 was like the 21st century version of 1992-93. 

I noticed Jan 1996 recorded even more snowfall than 1993, as it made #5 on the list. But overall 92-93 was a snowier winter. They both get equal points though in my book with the windstorm 12/12/1995 and various other events. And November 1995 had the highest average high temp at KLMT.

[liquidsnow]

3 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

All but assured now we will not have a great January. Another year as the world turns. 

 

It's December 26th.....

[Winterdog]

It’s looking like it may be quite a while before I will see snow here again.  I can’t get too excited about the faint possibility of a favorable SSW outcome.  If it doesn’t show up within 3 days on the GFS it’s just wishcasting.  Sitting at 45 here now looking at a dying hemlock and a dying winter.
 

[Rubus Leucodermis]

32 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

The solstice storm represented a fairly minor, mesoscale event and for all intents and purposes didn't reflect a larger scale pattern change at all. It was a fun little event for the folks that got snow but it wasn't indicative of the kinds of favorable synoptic scale details that most of us really care about. Features which tend to show their hand much further out on the models.

Snow is snow, and I wouldn’t be all that surprised to see an arctic blast materialize without more than a week’s notice, either.

[Jesse]

One bit of good news. PDX should drop out of the top 5 for record warm Decembers after today.

[Jesse]

Light rain and 45 this morning, after a low of 38.

The mountain passes and eastern Gorge are looking fantastic right now.

[Brian_in_Leavenworth]

GEFS mean is not as strong with that over us that the regular GFS showed.  Still a signal, but a bit weaker.  Also, GVS V16 is a bit more progressive, with a weaker ridge than the regular GFS.  Still, the ridge over us doesn't form on these models until after day 10, when the resolution goes down.

[luminen]

 

[Jesse]

12z Euro is looking like a great run for Cascade snow, and valley rain. Last night's Euro run was good in that regard too. It's more the GFS that has been spitting out the insipid stuff lately.

This Nina winter is likely just starting to gear up.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

3 minutes ago, Jesse said:

12z Euro is looking like a great run for Cascade snow, and valley rain. Last night's Euro run was good in that regard too. It's more the GFS that has been spitting out the insipid stuff lately.

This Nina winter is likely just starting to gear up.

I pray to the Gods you are correct. 

[Jesse]

1 minute ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

I pray to the Gods you are correct. 

ENSO lag is outside of God's jurisdiction.

[MossMan]

Like Skagit Weather posted earlier...It got quite windy early this morning, to the point where I was shocked we did not lose power. Currently breezy and 45 degrees. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

13 minutes ago, Jesse said:

ENSO lag is outside of God's jurisdiction.

Certainly in his hands now.

[Cloud]

Really hoping to avoid another 50F day today. Today and tomorrow gonna be close.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Kids are going to have a blast!! 

[rsktkr]

2 hours ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

I don’t know why so many people get down in the dumps when the long-range models are crap. Model accuracy has been crap this year. The solstice snow didn’t even show up until four or five days out. A white New Year’s Day could easily be in the cards and we just don’t know it yet.

BINGO!

[snow_wizard]

1 hour ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Makes us realize how special years like

2016-17, 1992-93 really were. 

There's still lots of time.  The ECMWF shows the SSW is complete by day 10.  Give it time.

[snow_wizard]

3 hours ago, Timmy_Supercell said:

Just a thin 1/10" layer of white this morning. Total yesterday was a Trace. Goes to show you not to expect snow on Christmas west of the cascades if it happens less than 50% of the time east of the Cascades.

A lot of places in Central WA have a White Christmas nearly every year.  That counts years where there is just snow laying on the ground with no new of course.

[Cloud]

This is OT  but does anyone have any electronics stuff they want to buy from Newegg? Looks like I have a $10 gift card from them that is set to expired soon-ish, but I'm not really interested in buying anything currently. If any of you have any interest, shoot me a DM and I'll send the gift card ID and Security code, rather than lose it.

First person gets it. 

Happy holidays. 

EDIT: GONE. 

[Brian_in_Leavenworth]

9 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

A lot of places in Central WA have a White Christmas nearly every year.  That counts years where there is just snow laying on the ground with no new of course.

Maybe he is talking about Oregon.  In Leavenworth, we have a white Christmas about 90% of the time.  And places north like Okanogan and Winthrop probably 90% or more.  But when you get south, like Walla Walla, Moses Lake, etc, it is less.

 

Here is a map of the historic probability of a white Christmas courtesy of the NWS in Spokane.  This covers Washington and most of Oregon.

[Brian_in_Leavenworth]

In the 10-15 day period, the GFS builds a huge ridge over us.  GEFS had a weaker signal for that.  GFS V16, the new one that will take over soon, had ridging like the GFS, but a bit weaker, allowing for a bit of a progressive flow.  Also had a bit more ridging in the Gulf of Alaska.  The Canadian ensembles, as has been the cast for the last week or two, also has some ridging over us in that range. 

But the EPS disagrees.  Of course it is not the pattern that those of you west of the mountains want, but at least it is not an inversion pattern.  Actually a pattern that would bury my area in snow.   Looks like La Nina.  Here is the latest EPS:

 

 

 

[Blizzard777]

10 minutes ago, Brian_in_Leavenworth said:

Maybe he is talking about Oregon.  In Leavenworth, we have a white Christmas about 90% of the time.  And places north like Okanogan and Winthrop probably 90% or more.  But when you get south, like Walla Walla, Moses Lake, etc, it is less.

 

Here is a map of the historic probability of a white Christmas courtesy of the NWS in Spokane.  This covers Washington and most of Oregon.

Why on earth would they build city’s where it doesn’t snow on Christmas!?!?!    
 

46* and winds increasing here 

[Timmy Supercell]

8 minutes ago, Brian_in_Leavenworth said:

Maybe he is talking about Oregon.  In Leavenworth, we have a white Christmas about 90% of the time.  And places north like Okanogan and Winthrop probably 90% or more.  But when you get south, like Walla Walla, Moses Lake, etc, it is less.

 

Here is a map of the historic probability of a white Christmas courtesy of the NWS in Spokane.  This covers Washington and most of Oregon.

I bet places up 97 a little probably see one most years. Chiloquin and Chemult especially. When we were driving the uHaul down 97 on 11/30/2010 we stopped at Chemult for a quick bite. They had 2-3x times more leftover pack from snow than K-Falls at that time, and icicles reaching the ground. 

[AbbyJr]

 

[Timmy Supercell]

2 minutes ago, AbbyJr said:

 

[Cloud]

9 minutes ago, AbbyJr said:

 

Obviously I'm pretty noobish with the SSW stuff. SSW is gonna happen! But for us, do we want the SPV to split or nah? 

[MossMan]

It’s interesting that in January 2019 on the forum there did not seem to be much of any talk about the SSW...Though I didn’t go back and look at the entire Jan 2019 thread. Seems to be all the rage on the December 2020 thread however.