AbbyJr Posted January 3, 2021 Report Share Posted January 3, 2021 Just now, SilverFallsAndrew said: Later in the year for one. Then I think the ridge moved overhead. Yup, the ridge moved overhead. Did so pretty quick. I'm wondering what caused it to do so so fast rather staying amplified or reamplifying? February 2019 lasted a lot longer too but it wasn't as intense of course. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bainbridgekid Posted January 3, 2021 Report Share Posted January 3, 2021 7 minutes ago, AbbyJr said: Yup, the ridge moved overhead. Did so pretty quick. I'm wondering what caused it to do so so fast rather staying amplified or reamplifying? February 2019 lasted a lot longer too but it wasn't as intense of course. A lot of times our midwinter blasts seem to last much longer because an inversion sets up after the ridge moves over us. Don't have the benefit of that in February. Once you lose the upper level support, temps rebound quickly. Quote Everett Snowfall (510 feet elevation) Snow since February 2019: 91" 2023-24: 6" 2022-23: 17.5" 2021-22: 17.75" 2020-21: 14.5” 2019-20: 10.5" 2018-19: 24.75" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BLI snowman Posted January 3, 2021 Report Share Posted January 3, 2021 17 minutes ago, AbbyJr said: Question: Why was the February 1989 arctic blasts so brief? The main cold was really only a few days in early February. Whereas, other cold patterns have persisted much longer such as January 1954, 1969, 1996, December 1990, 1996, 2008, and 2016 etc... What was the difference in the pattern in those years to 1989? It wasn't an ideal setup for an inversion to develop, especially being later in the season with enough dry air advection to keep things solidly mixed for the most part. It really wasn't that short lived of a cold period at all, though. This was the initial push of cold from the NW on 1/31 http://www.meteo.psu.edu/fxg1/NARR/1989/us0131.php And then over a week later, 850mb temps were still well below average with the antecedent airmass still largely in place http://www.meteo.psu.edu/fxg1/NARR/1989/us0208.php And the next four weeks stayed cold with the PV hanging out close, there was a backdoor/Fraser River event at mid month http://www.meteo.psu.edu/fxg1/NARR/1989/us0216.php And then of course the big event at the start of March, the last really major March event for Portland and Seattle http://www.meteo.psu.edu/fxg1/NARR/1989/us0302.php 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Swamp Posted January 3, 2021 Report Share Posted January 3, 2021 It's coming. No one can stop it. You think the 18Z is an outlier. Maybe it is today. In the next few days the goods will show up on all the models. We'll be buried in snow up and down the I-5. I'm predicting 20.21" of snow in the swamp before it's all said and done. Book it Dano! It's coming and we are OVER due. 5 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FroYoBro Posted January 3, 2021 Report Share Posted January 3, 2021 Raining here. Upper 40’s. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rubus Leucodermis Posted January 3, 2021 Report Share Posted January 3, 2021 1 minute ago, BLI snowman said: And then of course the big event at the start of March, the last really major March event for Portland and Seattle http://www.meteo.psu.edu/fxg1/NARR/1989/us0302.php I remember that March event. Got about 8" of snow then a day of ice in Prosser. The latter was caused by cold air that got trapped and lingered in the Yakima Valley. The Tri-Cities moderated quickly and just got rain that day. 1 Quote It's called clown range for a reason. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Art_Digbee Posted January 3, 2021 Report Share Posted January 3, 2021 38 minutes ago, MossMan said: Up to .07” on the day here. .33” for the month! Just cracked an inch for the day here on Orcas. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cloud Posted January 3, 2021 Report Share Posted January 3, 2021 3 minutes ago, BLI snowman said: It wasn't an ideal setup for an inversion to develop, especially being later in the season with enough dry air advection to keep things solidly mixed for the most part. It really wasn't that short lived of a cold period at all, though. This was the initial push of cold from the NW on 1/31 http://www.meteo.psu.edu/fxg1/NARR/1989/us0131.php And then over a week later, 850mb temps were still well below average with the antecedent airmass still largely in place http://www.meteo.psu.edu/fxg1/NARR/1989/us0208.php And the next four weeks stayed cold with the PV hanging out close, there was a backdoor/Fraser River event at mid month http://www.meteo.psu.edu/fxg1/NARR/1989/us0216.php And then of course the big event at the start of March, the last really major March event for Portland and Seattle http://www.meteo.psu.edu/fxg1/NARR/1989/us0302.php Wow. Great research! I love how these are being archived to look back on. This is why I have no objections to people posting every runs on here @Meatyorologist@DJ Droppin etc... great to look back. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted January 3, 2021 Report Share Posted January 3, 2021 1 hour ago, DJ Droppin said: More encouraging news! The 18z GEFS continues the trend with retrogression and the NPAC jet retracting. Timing has sped up a bit too. This run also builds heights over the Southeast US. Nice! C'MON!!!! Ba-dum......ba-dum.....ba-dum...ba-dum 1 1 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rubus Leucodermis Posted January 3, 2021 Report Share Posted January 3, 2021 4 minutes ago, Cloud said: This is why I have no objections to people posting every runs on here @Meatyorologist@DJ Droppin etc... great to look back. I don’t know why people object. Heaven forbid that someone post weather forecasting model output on a weather forum! 4 Quote It's called clown range for a reason. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted January 3, 2021 Report Share Posted January 3, 2021 3 minutes ago, Phil said: Ba-dum......ba-dum.....ba-dum...ba-dum Yep! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted January 3, 2021 Report Share Posted January 3, 2021 3 minutes ago, Rubus Leucodermis said: I don’t know why people object. Heaven forbid that someone post weather forecasting model output on a weather forum! True, but I will admit, taking a small break last night with posting the 10 Day Re-caps and not posting Day 1-10 maps with 4 run trends was very relaxing. 00z GFS in 1 hour 47 minutes 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BLI snowman Posted January 3, 2021 Report Share Posted January 3, 2021 7 minutes ago, Cloud said: Wow. Great research! I love how these are being archived to look back on. This is why I have no objections to people posting every runs on here @Meatyorologist@DJ Droppin etc... great to look back. Yeah, here's the link to the map site in case anyone ever wants to play around with dates. They have it archived from 1979 to 2014. http://www.meteo.psu.edu/fxg1/NARR/1979.html Prettiest dates are probably going to be these two. What'd I'd give for even a GFS run that looks like these! http://www.meteo.psu.edu/fxg1/NARR/1989/us0203.php http://www.meteo.psu.edu/fxg1/NARR/1990/us1220.php 5 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Swamp Posted January 3, 2021 Report Share Posted January 3, 2021 It would really suck if the ridging we've been wanting all winter long ends up right on top of us with no retrograde in sight. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cloud Posted January 3, 2021 Report Share Posted January 3, 2021 4 minutes ago, Rubus Leucodermis said: I don’t know why people object. Heaven forbid that someone post weather forecasting model output on a weather forum! I don’t know. Some have said it’s “not necessary” to post models beyond 10 days since it’s not showing anything interesting. But hey, if something epic comes up down the pipe, 20 years from now (if this forums still exist) we can look back at the runs we archived and look at the shitty pattern we’re in right now leading up to something fun. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawniganLake Posted January 3, 2021 Report Share Posted January 3, 2021 50 minutes ago, bainbridgekid said: You mentioned a few days ago you had like 34" in 2020 and that was below your average. I would have thought you averaged 40+ inches up there. Vancouver Island shadowing must effect you more than I thought? Hmm. I don’t recall that. Shawnigan lake averages about 50” per year. Maybe 34” of snow? Or was that perhaps Vancouverislandsouth that had 34” ? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rubus Leucodermis Posted January 3, 2021 Report Share Posted January 3, 2021 Just now, Cloud said: I don’t know. Some have said it’s “not necessary” to post models beyond 10 days since it’s not showing anything interesting. But hey, if something epic comes up down the pipe, 20 years from now (if this forums still exist) we can look back at the runs we archived and look at the shitty pattern we’re in right now leading up to something fun. I’m definitely one of those people that takes clown range forecasts with a HUGE grain of salt, but it’s still weather-related and still germane to the topic of this forum. 1 Quote It's called clown range for a reason. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Swamp Posted January 3, 2021 Report Share Posted January 3, 2021 I look forward to DJ dropping the models each night. Yeah, I can look them up myself but D**n he does a good job. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted January 3, 2021 Report Share Posted January 3, 2021 Given the retrogression path seems the most likely pattern evolution ahead I assume we'd initially begin with a minor backdoor intrusion of cooler air which turns progressively colder and colder, then as the evolving block migrates further west we develop BC sliders/short over water trajectory. Just what I could see playing out into week 3. C'MON!!!! 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted January 3, 2021 Author Report Share Posted January 3, 2021 54 minutes ago, Cloud said: Are you being shadowed? Because it’s quite different here. Approaching 1” for SEA for the day. Yep been shadowed all day up until the last half hour. Pouring now, up to .18” on the day. 1 Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bainbridgekid Posted January 3, 2021 Report Share Posted January 3, 2021 12 minutes ago, ShawniganLake said: Hmm. I don’t recall that. Shawnigan lake averages about 50” per year. Maybe 34” of snow? Or was that perhaps Vancouverislandsouth that had 34” ? Maybe it was and I misremembered. That would make more sense because I think Victoria only gets like 25" a year. Quote Everett Snowfall (510 feet elevation) Snow since February 2019: 91" 2023-24: 6" 2022-23: 17.5" 2021-22: 17.75" 2020-21: 14.5” 2019-20: 10.5" 2018-19: 24.75" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted January 3, 2021 Author Report Share Posted January 3, 2021 .30” now! 1 Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TacomaWaWx Posted January 3, 2021 Report Share Posted January 3, 2021 We only get about 6” of snow per year on average in Tacoma. Only had 2” in 2020. Quote Tacoma WA elevation 300’ Monthly rainfall-3.56” Warm season rainfall-11.14” Max temp-88 +80 highs-2 +85 highs-2 +90 highs-0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cloud Posted January 3, 2021 Report Share Posted January 3, 2021 Wind is gonna peak soon then quickly subsides as the cold front moves thru. Heavy rain next couple hours. Not all that hard to spot the cold front on the radar! 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted January 3, 2021 Report Share Posted January 3, 2021 1 minute ago, Cloud said: Wind is gonna peak soon then quickly subsides as the cold front moves thru. Heavy rain next couple hours. Not all that hard to spot the cold front on the radar! The ECMWF shows a really impressive temp drop with the front later tonight too. Showing mid 30s for some places in the Puget Sound Lowlands. It also showed some lowland snow at least on the 12z, but that is really iffy. Some positive splat tests are certainly possible though. 3 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted January 3, 2021 Report Share Posted January 3, 2021 The extended GFS ensemble continues to look good for later in the month. That was extended from last nights 0z run.. Interestingly the 18z regular ensemble mean moved up the timing on the flip to negative PNA to about the 17th. It had been showing about the 20th. 1 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cloud Posted January 3, 2021 Report Share Posted January 3, 2021 4 minutes ago, snow_wizard said: The ECMWF shows a really impressive temp drop with the front later tonight too. Showing mid 30s for some places in the Puget Sound Lowlands. It also showed some lowland snow at least on the 12z, but that is really iffy. Some positive splat tests are certainly possible though. The euro was showing T-0.3” for my area but I don’t know if that’s going to happen. Certainly better chance for the foothills and the EPSL. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cloud Posted January 3, 2021 Report Share Posted January 3, 2021 I-90 EB is shut down due to heavy snow. Saw some DOT cams over the pass where vehicles are stuck. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
luminen Posted January 3, 2021 Report Share Posted January 3, 2021 #1949-50 #1968-69 #1971-72 #Nov1985 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted January 3, 2021 Report Share Posted January 3, 2021 I'm pretty stoked about watching the models over the next couple of days. The end of the GFS runs will be getting into the range the extended ensembles have been showing the pattern change really starting to kick in. Let's hope the 18z was onto something and the timing moves up a bit. 1 1 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheNewCulverJosh Posted January 3, 2021 Report Share Posted January 3, 2021 Always wait 2 weeks, lol. Tomorrow and the next day's models are going to tell a lot about what happens mid-month or so. Some straws are being grasped at but when that's all you have.................. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted January 3, 2021 Report Share Posted January 3, 2021 3 minutes ago, Cloud said: I-90 EB is shut down due to heavy snow. Saw some DOT cams over the pass where vehicles are stuck. I actually thought it would be raining up there. It's an absolute torch east of the mountains this evening. Apparently the cooler air aloft is already moving in. 1 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted January 3, 2021 Report Share Posted January 3, 2021 3 minutes ago, TheNewCulverJosh said: Always wait 2 weeks, lol. Tomorrow and the next day's models are going to tell a lot about what happens mid-month or so. Some straws are being grasped at but when that's all you have.................. Not really. Mid January is the time that has been advertised for a bit now. People forget about the SSW and the fact we are in a favorable base state for the mid and late winter to rock this time. I'm willing to put some stock in the Jan 15 to 20 time frame being the big pattern change. 2 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rubus Leucodermis Posted January 3, 2021 Report Share Posted January 3, 2021 7 minutes ago, luminen said: #1949-50 #1968-69 #1971-72 #Nov1985 1 Quote It's called clown range for a reason. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AbbyJr Posted January 3, 2021 Report Share Posted January 3, 2021 Just now, snow_wizard said: Not really. Mid January is the time that has been advertised for a bit now. People forget about the SSW and the fact we in a favorable base state for the mid and late winter to rock this time. I'm willing to put some stock in the Jan 15 to 20 time frame being the big pattern change. -ENSO/+QBO/SSW. Have we actually had that combo before in the past? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
luminen Posted January 3, 2021 Report Share Posted January 3, 2021 4 minutes ago, snow_wizard said: I actually thought it would be raining up there. It's an absolute torch east of the mountains this evening. Apparently the cooler air aloft is already moving in. It was 40F all the way up to Prince George today. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheNewCulverJosh Posted January 3, 2021 Report Share Posted January 3, 2021 5 minutes ago, snow_wizard said: Not really. Mid January is the time that has been advertised for a bit now. People forget about the SSW and the fact we are in a favorable base state for the mid and late winter to rock this time. I'm willing to put some stock in the Jan 15 to 20 time frame being the big pattern change. Let us pin that at the top then! iFred? Let us all see if your words hold any water. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TacomaWaWx Posted January 3, 2021 Report Share Posted January 3, 2021 6 minutes ago, Rubus Leucodermis said: Lol there’s not even a rug to pull yet. 4 1 Quote Tacoma WA elevation 300’ Monthly rainfall-3.56” Warm season rainfall-11.14” Max temp-88 +80 highs-2 +85 highs-2 +90 highs-0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard777 Posted January 3, 2021 Report Share Posted January 3, 2021 15 minutes ago, Cloud said: I-90 EB is shut down due to heavy snow. Saw some DOT cams over the pass where vehicles are stuck. No thanks! Ouch Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rubus Leucodermis Posted January 3, 2021 Report Share Posted January 3, 2021 3 minutes ago, TheNewCulverJosh said: Let us pin that at the top then! iFred? Let us all see if your words hold any water. C’mon, man. It’s an hour 384 model run. When have those ever let us down? Quote It's called clown range for a reason. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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