Deweydog Posted January 10, 2021 Report Share Posted January 10, 2021 10 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said: Silverton got down to 12 on back to back days with no snow cover. We managed to hold on to that snow from the 27th here pretty well. Probably still 2-3 inches left once we went into the ice box 2+ days later. Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MR.SNOWMIZER Posted January 10, 2021 Report Share Posted January 10, 2021 1 hour ago, TT-SEA said: EPS is totally on board like previous runs... the last week of January will be memorable. That is my genuine feeling... from someone who will has no problem saying when it seems unlikely or over-hyped. Striking similarities to Feb 2019. Science aside it even has that same feel. 1 Quote We come from the land of the ice and snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted January 10, 2021 Report Share Posted January 10, 2021 13 minutes ago, Omegaraptor said: 66 at Gov't Camp at 2/14 and 64 on 2/15. That month started with over 80" of snowpack at Govy, and two weeks later there was only a foot on the ground. Horse Creek station was 70-75-72-70 for highs on 2/12 through 2/15. Weird that it was on the 16th up there, but it is believable. They gained most of that snow back by the end of the month. I remember coming up to Silver Falls to go sledding and there was easily 18-24” up here. 1 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian_in_Leavenworth Posted January 10, 2021 Report Share Posted January 10, 2021 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted January 10, 2021 Report Share Posted January 10, 2021 Big step in the right direction at the end of the Euro. 1 Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted January 10, 2021 Report Share Posted January 10, 2021 3 hours ago, SilverFallsAndrew said: Pretty incredible. I think you re-run January 2008 10 times, the lowlands see a lot more snow in almost every scenario. The fine details just didn't work out that month. It does seem unlikely the upcoming pattern will deliver true arctic air, but there is still potential for some very chilly weather by month's end, and if that block can reconfigure further east and tilt, then who knows. Agreed. That month was as close as you can get with a very good pattern without widespread lowland scorage. And even then, Eugene still managed a nice snowstorm (TWL). 2 1 Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Timmy Supercell Posted January 10, 2021 Report Share Posted January 10, 2021 2 hours ago, TacomaWaWx said: My friends down in Texas are getting a pretty good snowstorm currently. Hoping that it’s our turn soon. They had a dusting of snow on New Years when I was there but looks like they have a lot more than that down where I was. I think we will be seeing some snow up here soon! 20" in Madrid and now snow somewhere in Texas. PDX would HAVE to have snow now. Quote Ashland, KY Weather '23-'24 Winter Snowfall - 5.50" First freeze: 11/1 (32) Minimum: 2 on 1/17 Measurable snows: 4 Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19) Thunders: 16 1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15 3/26, 3/30, 3/31, 4/2, 4/3, 4/8, Severe storms: 2 ------------------------------------------------------- [Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021] https://imgur.com/SuGTijl Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted January 10, 2021 Report Share Posted January 10, 2021 1 hour ago, SilverFallsAndrew said: I do agree with Dewey that right now what is being shown is mostly cold onshore flow, but by the 25th cold is marinating in W. Canada, it's not out of the realm of possibility as early as the last few days of the month a more favorable pattern develops which delivers more meaningful cold to the region. And that's still 2 weeks out, so who really knows for the last week of the month. Lots of time. Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted January 10, 2021 Report Share Posted January 10, 2021 15 minutes ago, Brian_in_Leavenworth said: Impressive. Can't wait to see the weeklies tomorrow. Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Omegaraptor Posted January 10, 2021 Report Share Posted January 10, 2021 12 minutes ago, Timmy_Supercell said: 20" in Madrid and now snow somewhere in Texas. PDX would HAVE to have snow now. Snow in the Texas panhandle is not that uncommon, FWIW 1 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted January 10, 2021 Report Share Posted January 10, 2021 58 minutes ago, snow_wizard said: Up here we got our big snow with the Arctic front. It dropped to 9 at my place after the snow. Yeah, we got about 6" on super bowl Sunday with that. Stuck around for about a week. Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bainbridgekid Posted January 10, 2021 Report Share Posted January 10, 2021 7 minutes ago, Omegaraptor said: Snow in the Texas panhandle is not that uncommon, FWIW True but this storm is giving significant snow in Louisiana and Southeastern Texas not far from Houston as well. 2 1 Quote Everett Snowfall (510 feet elevation) Snow since February 2019: 91" 2023-24: 6" 2022-23: 17.5" 2021-22: 17.75" 2020-21: 14.5” 2019-20: 10.5" 2018-19: 24.75" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted January 10, 2021 Report Share Posted January 10, 2021 I think people are writing off the Arctic air potential a bit too easily. Most runs show some type of bridging with the NAO block. Very good chance of at least a colder version of Jan 2008. 1 1 1 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawniganLake Posted January 10, 2021 Report Share Posted January 10, 2021 Euro showed some snow here as early as Tuesday. Lock it in! 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Timmy Supercell Posted January 10, 2021 Report Share Posted January 10, 2021 11 minutes ago, Omegaraptor said: Snow in the Texas panhandle is not that uncommon, FWIW I wasn't sure what cities were getting it, but figured the panhandle gets snow more frequently. 1 Quote Ashland, KY Weather '23-'24 Winter Snowfall - 5.50" First freeze: 11/1 (32) Minimum: 2 on 1/17 Measurable snows: 4 Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19) Thunders: 16 1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15 3/26, 3/30, 3/31, 4/2, 4/3, 4/8, Severe storms: 2 ------------------------------------------------------- [Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021] https://imgur.com/SuGTijl Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted January 10, 2021 Report Share Posted January 10, 2021 12 minutes ago, Omegaraptor said: Snow in the Texas panhandle is not that uncommon, FWIW Amarillo is 3600'. 1 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted January 10, 2021 Report Share Posted January 10, 2021 3 minutes ago, snow_wizard said: I think people are writing off the Arctic air potential a bit too easily. Most runs show some type of bridging with the NAO block. Very good chance of at least a colder version of Jan 2008. I don't think anyone is writing it off. The models are just not showing it yet. 1 1 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Timmy Supercell Posted January 10, 2021 Report Share Posted January 10, 2021 2 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said: I don't think anyone is writing it off. The models are just not showing it yet. The next 8 weeks could be incredibly snowy but it's just not showing yet on CFS. Quote Ashland, KY Weather '23-'24 Winter Snowfall - 5.50" First freeze: 11/1 (32) Minimum: 2 on 1/17 Measurable snows: 4 Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19) Thunders: 16 1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15 3/26, 3/30, 3/31, 4/2, 4/3, 4/8, Severe storms: 2 ------------------------------------------------------- [Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021] https://imgur.com/SuGTijl Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SalemDuck Posted January 10, 2021 Report Share Posted January 10, 2021 6 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said: I don't think anyone is writing it off. The models are just not showing it yet. Tell that to the EPS control run 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted January 10, 2021 Report Share Posted January 10, 2021 Looking at various anomaly composites of different parts of January 2008 it's pretty obvious the pattern being depicted by the models is more favorable than it was that month. For the most part the positive anom center over the Pacific was further west and south than what is being progged. Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian_in_Leavenworth Posted January 10, 2021 Report Share Posted January 10, 2021 I wouldn't expect the EPS to show real cold weather in the 12-15 day range, since it is an ensemble mean. 80% of the members could be showing arctic air, the other 20% could be showing warmer than normal and the end result is that it would show colder than normal but not arctic. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted January 10, 2021 Report Share Posted January 10, 2021 GFS seems to be backing of precip down here this week, but still 2-3" up here through mid-week. Not bad. Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted January 10, 2021 Report Share Posted January 10, 2021 22 minutes ago, snow_wizard said: Looking at various anomaly composites of different parts of January 2008 it's pretty obvious the pattern being depicted by the models is more favorable than it was that month. For the most part the positive anom center over the Pacific was further west and south than what is being progged. In reality, there’s no way to know. This month has been very warm and any meaningful cool down is still over a week away. 1 Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted January 10, 2021 Report Share Posted January 10, 2021 2 minutes ago, Deweydog said: In reality, there’s no way to know. This month has been very warm and any meaningful cool down is still over a week away. January 2008 was a fairly cool month from start to finish. SLE only had 4 days the entire month of 50+ and the warmest it got after the 12th was 46. https://climate.usu.edu/mapServer/reports/e15daily.php?stn=USW00024232&year=2008&month=1&unit=EN&network=direct:ghcn&sidebar=0 1 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MR.SNOWMIZER Posted January 10, 2021 Report Share Posted January 10, 2021 When I get ready to look at the 18z I like to put Harvey danger on. Quote We come from the land of the ice and snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Timmy Supercell Posted January 10, 2021 Report Share Posted January 10, 2021 2 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said: January 2008 was a fairly cool month from start to finish. SLE only had 4 days the entire month of 50+ and the warmest it got after the 12th was 46. https://climate.usu.edu/mapServer/reports/e15daily.php?stn=USW00024232&year=2008&month=1&unit=EN&network=direct:ghcn&sidebar=0 A good chunk of that year was a little on the cooler side of things. I remember it snowing in April 2008 in the metro. Quote Ashland, KY Weather '23-'24 Winter Snowfall - 5.50" First freeze: 11/1 (32) Minimum: 2 on 1/17 Measurable snows: 4 Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19) Thunders: 16 1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15 3/26, 3/30, 3/31, 4/2, 4/3, 4/8, Severe storms: 2 ------------------------------------------------------- [Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021] https://imgur.com/SuGTijl Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted January 10, 2021 Report Share Posted January 10, 2021 2 hours ago, Deweydog said: Cold onshore flow. Exactly. I don't want to be a Debbie Downer, but all I am seeing is chilly northwesterly onshore flow. The 12z GEFS 850s for Yakima did however show chilly backdoor air with the mean temp at -8c. Just having the cold/blue shaded fun over us means very little if we don't have higher heights over southern Alaska. Only some OP runs have featured that, but not the ensembles as the block migrates too far west and not amplified enough. That could change though. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted January 10, 2021 Report Share Posted January 10, 2021 Jesse is not going to like the 18z through hour 204 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Timmy Supercell Posted January 10, 2021 Report Share Posted January 10, 2021 Someone on facebook from Abilene, TX shared some photos. Mentions possibly a daily record snowfall. 2 1 Quote Ashland, KY Weather '23-'24 Winter Snowfall - 5.50" First freeze: 11/1 (32) Minimum: 2 on 1/17 Measurable snows: 4 Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19) Thunders: 16 1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15 3/26, 3/30, 3/31, 4/2, 4/3, 4/8, Severe storms: 2 ------------------------------------------------------- [Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021] https://imgur.com/SuGTijl Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted January 10, 2021 Report Share Posted January 10, 2021 I think this week is gonna be a classic east vs. west coast weenie battle. A lot of model volatility. 2 Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Timmy Posted January 10, 2021 Report Share Posted January 10, 2021 14 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said: Jesse is not going to like the 18z through hour 204 I don’t think anyone is 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted January 10, 2021 Report Share Posted January 10, 2021 1 hour ago, SalemDuck said: Tell that to the EPS control run That comes dangerously close to really nailing us with frigid air. A 498 PV moves as close to us as NE Alberta. Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted January 10, 2021 Report Share Posted January 10, 2021 1 hour ago, snow_wizard said: Looking at various anomaly composites of different parts of January 2008 it's pretty obvious the pattern being depicted by the models is more favorable than it was that month. For the most part the positive anom center over the Pacific was further west and south than what is being progged. Don't worry, Jim. Patterns never repeat exactly the same. Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted January 10, 2021 Report Share Posted January 10, 2021 3 minutes ago, snow_wizard said: That comes dangerously close to really nailing us with frigid air. A 498 PV moves as close to us as NE Alberta. 2 1 Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted January 10, 2021 Report Share Posted January 10, 2021 20 minutes ago, DJ Droppin said: Exactly. I don't want to be a Debbie Downer, but all I am seeing is chilly northwesterly onshore flow. The 12z GEFS 850s for Yakima did however show chilly backdoor air with the mean temp at -8c. Just having the cold/blue shaded fun over us means very little if we don't have higher heights over southern Alaska. Only some OP runs have featured that, but not the ensembles as the block migrates too far west and not amplified enough. That could change though. The fact is a legit cold outcome is actually favored after the SSW. I think people are downplaying this too much. Those are some really good ensemble means we're seeing. Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted January 10, 2021 Report Share Posted January 10, 2021 Just now, Front Ranger said: Don't worry, Jim. Patterns never repeat exactly the same. I'm well aware. Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Timmy Posted January 10, 2021 Report Share Posted January 10, 2021 18z isn’t very amplified around hour 300 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted January 10, 2021 Report Share Posted January 10, 2021 17 minutes ago, snow_wizard said: The fact is a legit cold outcome is actually favored after the SSW. I think people are downplaying this too much. Those are some really good ensemble means we're seeing. I'm not downplaying anything. The potential is definitely there if we see better amplification with 500mb heights over Anchorage at least 550dam, but 560dam+ is favored. We all know this though. The pattern change with ridge merger/retrogression is popping up before Day 10 on the GEM Op and just about on the EURO Op too, so that's nice to see. Let's see how the next 2-3 days of model runs transpire. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
High Desert Mat? Posted January 10, 2021 Report Share Posted January 10, 2021 I’m telling everyone via a conference call. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Timmy Posted January 10, 2021 Report Share Posted January 10, 2021 1 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Posted by OysterPrintout,
3 reactions
Go to this post
Join the conversation
You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.