Timmy Posted January 15, 2021 Report Share Posted January 15, 2021 lots of bitter air in BC in the long rang gfs 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SalemDuck Posted January 15, 2021 Report Share Posted January 15, 2021 The block doesn't wander off either on the GFS in the long range. The PV at day 13 is on the central BC coast 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted January 15, 2021 Report Share Posted January 15, 2021 16 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said: GEM looks a bit better. Snowy. 2 Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Timmy Posted January 15, 2021 Report Share Posted January 15, 2021 3 minutes ago, Front Ranger said: Snowy. just a casual foot here. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard777 Posted January 15, 2021 Report Share Posted January 15, 2021 53 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said: Unfortunately, as exciting as the GFS was last night. It was an extreme cold outlier. Nah, I call it a trailblazer leading us on! 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Blob Posted January 15, 2021 Report Share Posted January 15, 2021 Last nights sunset, I was in a rush to get to work so I didn't make time to post last night. And I usually lurk at night reacting to posts, but I offer no help in posting models. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Blob Posted January 15, 2021 Report Share Posted January 15, 2021 Flash back to January 2017 on this date. 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weather_fan Posted January 15, 2021 Report Share Posted January 15, 2021 The snowflake on the weather app of my phone has disappeared. Is it a rug pull again? 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian_in_Leavenworth Posted January 15, 2021 Report Share Posted January 15, 2021 GEFS 12Z 0Z GEFS, same hour 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Blob Posted January 15, 2021 Report Share Posted January 15, 2021 1 minute ago, weather_fan said: The snowflake on the weather app of my phone has disappeared. Is it a rug pull again? It go pushed back a day on mine Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AbbyJr Posted January 15, 2021 Report Share Posted January 15, 2021 3 hours ago, MossMan said: Good morning! Still no power, just got back from the gas station...So far I have gone though about 18 gallons for the generator. About 54hrs powerless now. This last windstorm definitely ranks in my top 5 coming in at 5. Currently light drizzle and 44 degrees. .03” so far on the day. Does your generator provide full power to your house or just partial power? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AbbyJr Posted January 15, 2021 Report Share Posted January 15, 2021 1 hour ago, Phil said: Consistent theme with the really good runs is they bridge the NAO block with the PNA/EPO block. The more mediocre runs keep them separated to a degree. Do you think the upcoming second burst of warming in the stratosphere is causing the model chaos and flip flopping we are seeing in the long range? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Popular Post AlTahoe Posted January 15, 2021 Popular Post Report Share Posted January 15, 2021 17 minutes ago, The Blob said: Flash back to January 2017 on this date. My street around that same time. Jan 2017 was awesome everywhere. House in the picture is a 2 story. My lab is 100lbs for scale. This was at lake level (banana belt) 10 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cloud Posted January 15, 2021 Report Share Posted January 15, 2021 GFS is being real funky with the the on/off closed off low feature it keeps showing. It showed up, then it was gone, then it showed up again for the 6z, now it’s gone again. The good news is that the cutoff feature seems to be anomalous, as no other models including the Euro picks up on it. Ever. I wouldn’t trust the GFS model inside 3 days let alone a week out. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian_in_Leavenworth Posted January 15, 2021 Report Share Posted January 15, 2021 Comparing the 0Z GEFS to the 12Z GEFS using the upper level winds, you can see how much more over water trajectory there is with last nights run, in fact even a bit of a southerly component to it. Todays run not nearly as much over water. Todays: Last nights: Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TigerWoodsLibido Posted January 15, 2021 Report Share Posted January 15, 2021 Headed up to OHSU today for a peek at the noggin. Looks like it's pretty damp out there. Currently 48F. 2 Quote Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats: Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024) Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024) Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024) Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024) Total snowfall: 0.0" Total ice: 2.25” Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9") Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F) Last White Christmas: 1990 Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0 Personal Stats: Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F) Last White Christmas: 2008 Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0" Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4 Venmo GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2 My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope 24 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian_in_Leavenworth Posted January 15, 2021 Report Share Posted January 15, 2021 3 minutes ago, AlTahoe said: My street around that same time. Jan 2017 was awesome everywhere. House in the picture is a 2 story. My lab is 100lbs for scale. This was at lake level (banana belt) I assume at lake level, it is much warmer, and snow is on again/off again. Are there any communities around the lake maybe at an elevation above the lake where it is colder and the snow is more reliable? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MWG Posted January 15, 2021 Report Share Posted January 15, 2021 22 minutes ago, weather_fan said: The snowflake on the weather app of my phone has disappeared. Is it a rug pull again? On mine I had 2 and all gone this morning! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian_in_Leavenworth Posted January 15, 2021 Report Share Posted January 15, 2021 Still cant believe people actually use weather apps for winter time forecasts. Summer I understand, but winter? 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fircrest Posted January 15, 2021 Report Share Posted January 15, 2021 2 minutes ago, Cloud said: GFS is being real funky with the the on/off closed off low feature it keeps showing. It showed up, then it was gone, then it showed up again for the 6z, now it’s gone again. The good news is that the cutoff feature seems to be anomalous, as no other models including the Euro picks up on it. Ever. I wouldn’t trust the GFS model inside 3 days let alone a week out. I trust it when it shows extreme cold and snow Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Blob Posted January 15, 2021 Report Share Posted January 15, 2021 It's now on the night of the 24th instead if the 23rd like yesterday. Probably don't want people excited. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MWG Posted January 15, 2021 Report Share Posted January 15, 2021 2 minutes ago, Brian_in_Leavenworth said: Still cant believe people actually use weather apps for winter time forecasts. Summer I understand, but winter? I do check them but don't trust them though. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlTahoe Posted January 15, 2021 Report Share Posted January 15, 2021 Just now, Brian_in_Leavenworth said: I assume at lake level, it is much warmer, and snow is on again/off again. Are there any communities around the lake maybe at an elevation above the lake where it is colder and the snow is more reliable? At lake level we average about 190" a year with like 30% of the storms being rain at some point. Once you hit 7k and above the average goes to like 300". So the higher streets in Incline village get buried. The homes on the top of Kingsbury grade on the South shore also get buried. The west side of Truckee goes up to around 7k near and they also get buried. Here's a good video of the snow depth in the higher neighborhoods of Incline Village. All of these homes go for $3 - $20 million so most have heated driveways or people to clear them. 1 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian_in_Leavenworth Posted January 15, 2021 Report Share Posted January 15, 2021 1 minute ago, AlTahoe said: At lake level we average about 190" a year with like 30% of the storms being rain at some point. Once you hit 7k and above the average goes to like 300". So the higher streets in Incline village get buried. The homes on the top of Kingsbury grade on the South shore also get buried. The west side of Truckee goes up to around 7k near and they also get buried. Here's a good video of the snow depth in the higher neighborhoods of Incline Village. All of these homes go for $3 - $20 million so most have heated driveways or people to clear them. That is impressive. I knew the lake levels got a lot of snow (and rain), but not that much. We are staying in Kingsbury in October, looking forward to exploring the whole area. That 30% rain is probably all snow just a bit higher, at least most of the time. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Blob Posted January 15, 2021 Report Share Posted January 15, 2021 2 minutes ago, AlTahoe said: At lake level we average about 190" a year with like 30% of the storms being rain at some point. Once you hit 7k and above the average goes to like 300". So the higher streets in Incline village get buried. The homes on the top of Kingsbury grade on the South shore also get buried. The west side of Truckee goes up to around 7k near and they also get buried. Here's a good video of the snow depth in the higher neighborhoods of Incline Village. All of these homes go for $3 - $20 million so most have heated driveways or people to clear them. I'm in an Owens Valley Facebook group and I love seeing all the snow total pictures. There's one person in Mammoth always posting. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlTahoe Posted January 15, 2021 Report Share Posted January 15, 2021 1 minute ago, Brian_in_Leavenworth said: That is impressive. I knew the lake levels got a lot of snow (and rain), but not that much. We are staying in Kingsbury in October, looking forward to exploring the whole area. That 30% rain is probably all snow just a bit higher, at least most of the time. Bring your Mt bike if you have one. October is the best time of the year with the lake and weather still being warm and most of the tourist are gone. Tahoe rim trail will be next to where your staying. Also go down Kingsbury grade to the little town of Genoa NV. They have the oldest bar in the state Est 1858 and it is only like a 15 minute drive from Kingsbury grade. 2 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlTahoe Posted January 15, 2021 Report Share Posted January 15, 2021 7 minutes ago, The Blob said: I'm in an Owens Valley Facebook group and I love seeing all the snow total pictures. There's one person in Mammoth always posting. The town of Mammoth has to easily be the snowiest inhabited city in America. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted January 15, 2021 Report Share Posted January 15, 2021 Every year my wife says we need to get down to Tahoe. Her cousin lives outside of Reno and comes up and sees us every year, but we have yet to make it down there. 1 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted January 15, 2021 Report Share Posted January 15, 2021 As a young woman my mom did a lot of fly fishing in the Owens River and surrounding streams. She took us there once when I was a teenager, the fishing was tremendous and the scenery spectacular. Some dry country over there in the shadow of the Sierras. 1 1 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dave Posted January 15, 2021 Report Share Posted January 15, 2021 4 hours ago, TigerWoodsLibido said: Headed up to OHSU today for a peek at the noggin. Looks like it's pretty damp out there. Currently 48F. I am pro TWL noggin. Hope things look good. 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlTahoe Posted January 15, 2021 Report Share Posted January 15, 2021 1 minute ago, SilverFallsAndrew said: Every year my wife says we need to get down to Tahoe. Her cousin lives outside of Reno and comes up and sees us every year, but we have yet to make it down there. This year would have left a bad taste in your mouth as we were inundated with Citiots, and Tourons. The state was on lockdown so everyone came to Tahoe. We probably had 5x the usual visitors and they were all trash people that ignored the lockdown. They literally trashed the entire area, and gave 1 out of 4 locals Covid including myself. Hopefully things will go back to normal next summer. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weather_fan Posted January 15, 2021 Report Share Posted January 15, 2021 32 minutes ago, Brian_in_Leavenworth said: Still cant believe people actually use weather apps for winter time forecasts. Summer I understand, but winter? Why not? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Omegaraptor Posted January 15, 2021 Report Share Posted January 15, 2021 17 minutes ago, AlTahoe said: Bring your Mt bike if you have one. October is the best time of the year with the lake and weather still being warm and most of the tourist are gone. Tahoe rim trail will be next to where your staying. Also go down Kingsbury grade to the little town of Genoa NV. They have the oldest bar in the state Est 1858 and it is only like a 15 minute drive from Kingsbury grade. The Carson Valley is another beautiful place, lots of gorgeous ranch country there. Hopefully I can visit the area in the not-too-distant future. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawniganLake Posted January 15, 2021 Report Share Posted January 15, 2021 32 minutes ago, Brian_in_Leavenworth said: Still cant believe people actually use weather apps for winter time forecasts. Summer I understand, but winter? I have never used a weather app. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian_in_Leavenworth Posted January 15, 2021 Report Share Posted January 15, 2021 3 minutes ago, weather_fan said: Why not? Weather apps are automated forecasts made not anywhere near where you live. There is not a person that is making a forecast for your area based on their experience, their knowledge of the terrain, the recent performance of the models, etc. Sometimes it is just a literal spitting out of what one particular model says at that moment at a very low resolution. Works for summer when the weather is benign, but awful for winter, especially snow. Where I live, I remember seeing an app that was based out of Norway. Yes, the app on my phone was from Norway, Microsoft had it as its default weather app. I remember the time it showed rain and 43 degrees for Leavenworth (we average 94 inches of snow in the winter, and are about 10-12 degrees colder than Seattle), and at the same time it showed snow for Seattle and 30 degrees. The actual weather was pretty much the reverse of that. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted January 15, 2021 Author Report Share Posted January 15, 2021 56 minutes ago, AbbyJr said: Does your generator provide full power to your house or just partial power? It runs part of the house, the vital organs like the well pump, septic pump, on demand hot water system, living room lights, refrigerator, the gas fireplace with the blower, and some outlets. Way better than my old house with a smaller portable generator that I had to run extension cords all over. 1 Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted January 15, 2021 Author Report Share Posted January 15, 2021 5 minutes ago, Brian_in_Leavenworth said: Weather apps are automated forecasts made not anywhere near where you live. There is not a person that is making a forecast for your area based on their experience, their knowledge of the terrain, the recent performance of the models, etc. Sometimes it is just a literal spitting out of what one particular model says at that moment at a very low resolution. Works for summer when the weather is benign, but awful for winter, especially snow. Where I live, I remember seeing an app that was based out of Norway. Yes, the app on my phone was from Norway, Microsoft had it as its default weather app. I remember the time it showed rain and 43 degrees for Leavenworth (we average 94 inches of snow in the winter, and are about 10-12 degrees colder than Seattle), and at the same time it showed snow for Seattle and 30 degrees. The actual weather was pretty much the reverse of that. The only app I have found that is half way decent is Dark Sky. Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Omegaraptor Posted January 15, 2021 Report Share Posted January 15, 2021 1 minute ago, MossMan said: The only app I have found that is half way decent is Dark Sky. Windy.com is straight up model output. Has ECMWF, GFS, and NAM. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TigerWoodsLibido Posted January 15, 2021 Report Share Posted January 15, 2021 3 minutes ago, MossMan said: The only app I have found that is half way decent is Dark Sky. WeatherMate is worth the couple bucks. At least for temps I think they mostly roll with the EC solutions. 1 Quote Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats: Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024) Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024) Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024) Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024) Total snowfall: 0.0" Total ice: 2.25” Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9") Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F) Last White Christmas: 1990 Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0 Personal Stats: Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F) Last White Christmas: 2008 Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0" Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4 Venmo GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2 My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope 24 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Blob Posted January 15, 2021 Report Share Posted January 15, 2021 20 minutes ago, AlTahoe said: This year would have left a bad taste in your mouth as we were inundated with Citiots, and Tourons. The state was on lockdown so everyone came to Tahoe. We probably had 5x the usual visitors and they were all trash people that ignored the lockdown. They literally trashed the entire area, and gave 1 out of 4 locals Covid including myself. Hopefully things will go back to normal next summer. Don't get me started on that... the whole area is beautiful and I miss being a 4-5hr drive away. I can still order from Schats though. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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