TT-SEA Posted January 23, 2021 Report Share Posted January 23, 2021 Just noticed that 18Z ECMWF was also pretty snowy for King County with that c-zone on Sunday night into early Monday morning. 3 1 1 Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlTahoe Posted January 23, 2021 Report Share Posted January 23, 2021 So there is .00001" chance this verifies but I am saving this image as it is the most crazy model output I have ever seen. 244" for South lake Tahoe. LOL 3 1 1 4 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FroYoBro Posted January 23, 2021 Report Share Posted January 23, 2021 1 minute ago, AlTahoe said: So there is .00001" chance this verifies but I am saving this image as it is the most crazy model output I have ever seen. 244" for South lake Tahoe. LOL I imagine that you are crying right now. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlTahoe Posted January 23, 2021 Report Share Posted January 23, 2021 2 minutes ago, FroYoBro said: I imagine that you are crying right now. It happened in Jan 1916 so it could theoretically happen again which is why I gave it a slight chance. LOL. But yeah I am gassing everything up tomorrow and getting groceries before the news starts talking about it. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmet Posted January 23, 2021 Report Share Posted January 23, 2021 21 minutes ago, hawkstwelve said: 00z 3km NAM looked quite nice for the Central Sound. Most of this falls Sunday night. 3 in. here. The only map I need to see. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gummy Posted January 23, 2021 Report Share Posted January 23, 2021 Unfortunately this is probably closer to reality. I will still take it though! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
High Desert Mat? Posted January 23, 2021 Report Share Posted January 23, 2021 2 minutes ago, Gummy said: Unfortunately this is probably closer to reality. I will still take it though! Uh oh, he’s made it over from the “blog”. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted January 23, 2021 Report Share Posted January 23, 2021 00z GFS Day 1 (Past 4 runs) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meatyorologist Posted January 23, 2021 Report Share Posted January 23, 2021 19 minutes ago, AlTahoe said: So there is .00001" chance this verifies but I am saving this image as it is the most crazy model output I have ever seen. 244" for South lake Tahoe. LOL Over twenty feet of snow. How would you be able to function?? I get that you could gradually shovel it, but at some point, even as the snow settles, you'd run out of room for the snow. Sacrifice the backyard for a godzilla snowpile? Accept your homebound fate and pray your roof doesn't collapse? 1 Quote Weather stats for MBY Snowfall: -Total snowfall since joining: 50.25" -2018-19: 21" -2019-20: 2.5" -2020-21: 13" -2021-22: 8.75" -2022-23: 5.75" -2023-24*: 0.25" -Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024 -Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021 -Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019 Temperatures: -Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021 -Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021 -Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted January 23, 2021 Report Share Posted January 23, 2021 Day 2 (Past 4 runs) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted January 23, 2021 Report Share Posted January 23, 2021 Day 3 (Past 4 runs) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FroYoBro Posted January 23, 2021 Report Share Posted January 23, 2021 Holy ****. I’m in the blue! Snowstorm!!!!! 1 3 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted January 23, 2021 Report Share Posted January 23, 2021 Prediction. This run will not be as good as the fabulous 18z. 1 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted January 23, 2021 Report Share Posted January 23, 2021 Day 4 (Past 4 runs) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted January 23, 2021 Author Report Share Posted January 23, 2021 17 minutes ago, Gummy said: Unfortunately this is probably closer to reality. I will still take it though! I’m under a dot of blue! 2 1 Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cloud Posted January 23, 2021 Report Share Posted January 23, 2021 Don’t discount the NAM snow totals... it did pretty well the last wind event we have here. I can’t believe I just said that about the NAM. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted January 23, 2021 Report Share Posted January 23, 2021 5 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said: Prediction. This run will not be as good as the fabulous 18z. Yeah through Day 5 it's a step back in my opinion. It kind of sucks. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlTahoe Posted January 23, 2021 Report Share Posted January 23, 2021 12 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said: Over twenty feet of snow. How would you be able to function?? I get that you could gradually shovel it, but at some point, even as the snow settles, you'd run out of room for the snow. Sacrifice the backyard for a godzilla snowpile? Accept your homebound fate and pray your roof doesn't collapse? Whats even crazier is that our town has grown to 40k full time residents from a normal of about 23k because of covid. These people have no idea what they are in for. In Jan 2017 I had to bring my snow blower onto the roof by building a snow ramp the final 3' to reach my roof. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted January 23, 2021 Report Share Posted January 23, 2021 2 minutes ago, DJ Droppin said: Yeah through Day 5 it's a step back in my opinion. It kind of sucks. We live in a climate where the weather sucks 99.9% of the time. 1 1 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted January 23, 2021 Report Share Posted January 23, 2021 Day 5 If the ridge Day 3.5 to 5 could just slide east.. ugh (Past 4 runs) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meatyorologist Posted January 23, 2021 Report Share Posted January 23, 2021 Just now, AlTahoe said: Whats even crazier is that our town has grown to 40k full time residents from a normal of about 23k because of covid. These people have no idea what they are in for. In Jan 2017 I had to bring my snow blower onto the roof by building a snow ramp the final 3' to reach my roof. If you have any new neighbors, I don't know how comfortable you are with talking to them, but I'd recommend striking up a conversation about it. You could very well be saving a valley transplant from a lot of hassle, if not a lot of money and insurance BS from a collapsed roof. 1 Quote Weather stats for MBY Snowfall: -Total snowfall since joining: 50.25" -2018-19: 21" -2019-20: 2.5" -2020-21: 13" -2021-22: 8.75" -2022-23: 5.75" -2023-24*: 0.25" -Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024 -Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021 -Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019 Temperatures: -Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021 -Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021 -Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cloud Posted January 23, 2021 Report Share Posted January 23, 2021 1 hour ago, TT-SEA said: That stretch of I-5 has been under construction for what seems like more than a decade. I believe the actual construction itself is over 20 years now dating back to 2000 and the planning and whatnot is over 30 years if not more. Kinda ridiculous. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted January 23, 2021 Report Share Posted January 23, 2021 1 minute ago, Cloud said: I believe the actual construction itself is over 20 years now dating back to 2000 and the planning and whatnot is over 30 years if not more. Kinda ridiculous. Infrastructure in the PNW and our nation overall is kind of a joke. They probably will never build a 2nd bridge over the Willamette in Salem, and probably will not replace the Interstate Bridge in Portland until it collapses. 1 1 1 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted January 23, 2021 Report Share Posted January 23, 2021 00z is much warmer for next week. 1 1 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted January 23, 2021 Report Share Posted January 23, 2021 I try to remain cautiously optimistic, but runs like this make that difficult. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FroYoBro Posted January 23, 2021 Report Share Posted January 23, 2021 Get out your sad faces everyone. Andrew is here! 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthHillFrosty Posted January 23, 2021 Report Share Posted January 23, 2021 1 hour ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said: I thought all of tacoma was a slag pile? I love Tacoma. My favorite city in Washington hands down 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Art_Digbee Posted January 23, 2021 Report Share Posted January 23, 2021 Down to 29.8 degrees here in Deer Harbor. Being just off the water it's tough to get below freezing, and being right off a tidal lagoon, it helps considerably when the tide is out - like right now. I'll see the temp increase tonight as the tide comes in. 5 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted January 23, 2021 Report Share Posted January 23, 2021 Just now, FroYoBro said: Get out your sad faces everyone. Andrew is here! Even DJ is recognizing there are no redeeming qualities to this run. Perhaps hour 384 will blast us. Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted January 23, 2021 Report Share Posted January 23, 2021 Day 6 (Past 4 runs) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted January 23, 2021 Report Share Posted January 23, 2021 If this gfs run verifies, I promise to never call it goofus again. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cloud Posted January 23, 2021 Report Share Posted January 23, 2021 7 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said: Infrastructure in the PNW and our nation overall is kind of a joke. They probably will never build a 2nd bridge over the Willamette in Salem, and probably will not replace the Interstate Bridge in Portland until it collapses. But if there are tolls involved they have no problem finishing it in a jiffy. Take the 405 toll stretch up here for example from Bellevue. The 15-mile toll corridor was finished in an instant. edit: idk why I said 40. It’s 15. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BLI snowman Posted January 23, 2021 Report Share Posted January 23, 2021 Looks like I might make it through the end of January without seeing a flake. That is of course completely unprecedented for a La Nina winter here. 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TacomaWaWx Posted January 23, 2021 Report Share Posted January 23, 2021 1 hour ago, T-Town said: 38 degrees currently on the west end of the slag pile. Lol not sure why Tacoma’s getting all of this negativity all the sudden! Some parts of town are kinda shady but quite beautiful on this side of town from downtown northward. 7 Quote Tacoma WA elevation 300’ Monthly rainfall-3.56” Warm season rainfall-11.14” Max temp-88 +80 highs-2 +85 highs-2 +90 highs-0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted January 23, 2021 Report Share Posted January 23, 2021 As hurt as I am by PDX's unforeseen journey to 50+ degrees today, it still was a nice once. Wintery with an east wind developing in the afternoon and low dps. Peaked at 50 here, already down to 38 this evening. Skies have cleared and the wind has died, so could be down to freezing by midnight. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meatyorologist Posted January 23, 2021 Report Share Posted January 23, 2021 Direct 850mb temp outputs are highly dependent on small-scale features, and as such are prone to "wobbling". It's more useful to look at upstream differences. Meanwhile, nice improvements in that building ridge at hour 130-170, both in intensity and in placement. 3 Quote Weather stats for MBY Snowfall: -Total snowfall since joining: 50.25" -2018-19: 21" -2019-20: 2.5" -2020-21: 13" -2021-22: 8.75" -2022-23: 5.75" -2023-24*: 0.25" -Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024 -Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021 -Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019 Temperatures: -Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021 -Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021 -Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TacomaWaWx Posted January 23, 2021 Report Share Posted January 23, 2021 1 hour ago, Jginmartini said: When I was a kid it was still going on! I even remember the dome going up as well....thought that was cool. So many trips and I’m still doing it. Just the opposite way now. The construction on I-5 near the Tacoma dome is a massive pain in the a**. Always has been in my lifetime and don’t know when they’ll fix it. 1 Quote Tacoma WA elevation 300’ Monthly rainfall-3.56” Warm season rainfall-11.14” Max temp-88 +80 highs-2 +85 highs-2 +90 highs-0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted January 23, 2021 Report Share Posted January 23, 2021 Day 7 (Past runs) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted January 23, 2021 Report Share Posted January 23, 2021 4 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said: Direct 850mb temp outputs are highly dependent on small-scale features, and as such are prone to "wobbling". It's more useful to look at upstream differences. Meanwhile, nice improvements in that building ridge at hour 130-170, both in intensity and in placement. You are always so positive. I admire it. Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TacomaWaWx Posted January 23, 2021 Report Share Posted January 23, 2021 I still have hope things will work out and we see some snow Tuesday night/Wednesday morning but we will see. Hoping that February can come through for us. Still over a week until February starts so who knows what’ll happen the remainder of this winter. 2 Quote Tacoma WA elevation 300’ Monthly rainfall-3.56” Warm season rainfall-11.14” Max temp-88 +80 highs-2 +85 highs-2 +90 highs-0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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