MossMan Posted January 28, 2021 Author Report Share Posted January 28, 2021 https://youtu.be/kRPGPAnPNa8 1 3 Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kolk1604 Posted January 28, 2021 Report Share Posted January 28, 2021 4 minutes ago, MossMan said: https://youtu.be/kRPGPAnPNa8 Your funny 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted January 28, 2021 Report Share Posted January 28, 2021 1 1 Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthHillFrosty Posted January 28, 2021 Report Share Posted January 28, 2021 Forgot 384 hours out! This is only 200 hours out!! 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weather_fan Posted January 28, 2021 Report Share Posted January 28, 2021 Which is the best model for predicting this? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bainbridgekid Posted January 28, 2021 Report Share Posted January 28, 2021 The GEM solution is obviously very unlikely, but it's important to remember it's actually quite unusual for models to pick up on an arctic blast 2+ weeks out and that ones that happen are just as likely to pop up around day 9-10 without a lot of long range warning. 1 1 Quote Everett Snowfall (510 feet elevation) Snow since February 2019: 91" 2023-24: 6" 2022-23: 17.5" 2021-22: 17.75" 2020-21: 14.5” 2019-20: 10.5" 2018-19: 24.75" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthHillFrosty Posted January 28, 2021 Report Share Posted January 28, 2021 2 minutes ago, weather_fan said: Which is the best model for predicting this? EURO usually but....GFS has been better on picking up on things in the last year Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MR.SNOWMIZER Posted January 28, 2021 Report Share Posted January 28, 2021 1 minute ago, bainbridgekid said: The GEM solution is obviously very unlikely, but it's important to remember it's actually quite unusual for models to pick up on an arctic blast 2+ weeks out and that ones that happen are just as likely to pop up around day 9-10 without a lot of long range warning. I went back in the gfs runs and found some solutions for that same time frame that were pretty close to what Canadian shows. 1 1 Quote We come from the land of the ice and snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MR.SNOWMIZER Posted January 28, 2021 Report Share Posted January 28, 2021 4 minutes ago, weather_fan said: Which is the best model for predicting this? The MRF. 1 1 Quote We come from the land of the ice and snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted January 28, 2021 Report Share Posted January 28, 2021 1 minute ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said: The MRF. The ICON once we are inside 180 hours. 3 1 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
luminen Posted January 28, 2021 Report Share Posted January 28, 2021 Sorry but I'm really looking forward to the first 25C day of the year. This winter can go hide in shame. Horrible horrible winter. Even worse than 15/16. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted January 28, 2021 Author Report Share Posted January 28, 2021 12 minutes ago, weather_fan said: Which is the best model for predicting this? THE GEM!! Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted January 28, 2021 Author Report Share Posted January 28, 2021 How’s the JMA looking? 1 Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kolk1604 Posted January 28, 2021 Report Share Posted January 28, 2021 20 minutes ago, SouthHillFrosty said: EURO usually but....GFS has been better on picking up on things in the last year GFS huh? K I'm rolling with the parallel! Bring on the single digit lows Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted January 28, 2021 Report Share Posted January 28, 2021 Tonight it's the GEM that has a great run. I'm really starting to think this is going to happen now. The GFS operational has temporarily kind of gone off track, but I think that's just a blip. The big story is every model is showing high amp blocking, and a low somewhere near Hawaii. The details will sort themselves out, but it should be a ridge somewhere in the 140 to 150 range when all is said and done. It appears the bridge to the NAO block is gaining support also. Even the operational GFS shows that later in the run. It appears the parallel is heading for another good run. It's running low tonight. 2 1 1 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted January 28, 2021 Report Share Posted January 28, 2021 3 minutes ago, hawkstwelve said: That ridge axis is fairly close to the sweet spot. The edges are smoothed out a bit given it's an ensemble but the mean position ain't half bad. The EPS mean was good on position also on today's 12z. This is coming together! Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kolk1604 Posted January 28, 2021 Report Share Posted January 28, 2021 1 minute ago, snow_wizard said: Tonight it's the GEM that has a great run. I'm really starting to think this is going to happen now. The GFS operational has temporarily kind of gone off track, but I think that's just a blip. The big story is every model is showing high amp blocking, and a low somewhere near Hawaii. The details will sort themselves out, but it should be a ridge somewhere in the 140 to 150 range when all is said and done. It appears the bridge to the NAO block is gaining support also. Even the operational GFS shows that later in the run. It appears the parallel is heading for another good run. It's running low tonight. Yeah the parallel is running on dial-up tonight Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted January 28, 2021 Report Share Posted January 28, 2021 Wow. I just saw the GEM. Yeah.... Just imagine IF by some magical rare miracle the EURO follows that or even to a good extent .... 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MR.SNOWMIZER Posted January 28, 2021 Report Share Posted January 28, 2021 3 minutes ago, snow_wizard said: Tonight it's the GEM that has a great run. I'm really starting to think this is going to happen now. The GFS operational has temporarily kind of gone off track, but I think that's just a blip. The big story is every model is showing high amp blocking, and a low somewhere near Hawaii. The details will sort themselves out, but it should be a ridge somewhere in the 140 to 150 range when all is said and done. It appears the bridge to the NAO block is gaining support also. Even the operational GFS shows that later in the run. It appears the parallel is heading for another good run. It's running low tonight. Is 150 ridge placement about perfect for a heavy snow pattern for us? Quote We come from the land of the ice and snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cloud Posted January 28, 2021 Report Share Posted January 28, 2021 So sick and tired of Comcast around these areas. I wish there’s a better alternative... is down constantly and at least once a month. Called in and their reasoning this time for the outage is because of the storm in California... like how the F? A storm in California is causing an outage up here? Really?! Paid way too much monthly for a crappy service. /end rant. 3 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted January 28, 2021 Report Share Posted January 28, 2021 00z ECMWF Day 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MR.SNOWMIZER Posted January 28, 2021 Report Share Posted January 28, 2021 The snow in Tahoe is ripping now. Snow is adding up fast in some of the cams. Quote We come from the land of the ice and snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cloud Posted January 28, 2021 Report Share Posted January 28, 2021 Just now, MR.SNOWMIZER said: The snow in Tahoe is ripping now. Snow is adding up fast in some of the cams. I don’t know if they brought the cam back up yet since my internet is down but last I checked they had to bring the airport cam offline. Must be bc the snow is covering everything up. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted January 28, 2021 Report Share Posted January 28, 2021 Quite a number of -10 and below ensemble members tonight. Could we actually be looking at another major cold wave in February? Really amazing to see how Feb has stepped up to the plate over the past decade. 4 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GHweatherChris Posted January 28, 2021 Report Share Posted January 28, 2021 6 minutes ago, Cloud said: So sick and tired of Comcast around these areas. I wish there’s a better alternative... is down constantly and at least once a month. Called in and their reasoning this time for the outage is because of the storm in California... like how the F? A storm in California is causing an outage up here? Really?! Paid way too much monthly for a crappy service. /end rant. We are having major issues the last hour as well with them. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted January 28, 2021 Report Share Posted January 28, 2021 6 minutes ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said: Is 150 ridge placement about perfect for a heavy snow pattern for us? Yup. 150 is the best for Seattle. It seems that about 145 is the best for Portland. It took me a long time to figure that one out. it makes sense when you really look at it. Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted January 28, 2021 Report Share Posted January 28, 2021 Day 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnarkyGoblin Posted January 28, 2021 Report Share Posted January 28, 2021 8 minutes ago, Cloud said: So sick and tired of Comcast around these areas. I wish there’s a better alternative... is down constantly and at least once a month. Called in and their reasoning this time for the outage is because of the storm in California... like how the F? A storm in California is causing an outage up here? Really?! Paid way too much monthly for a crappy service. /end rant. Too late to write something but.... 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted January 28, 2021 Report Share Posted January 28, 2021 Definitely looks like the parallel is heading for something great. Back digging at hour 204 down the BC Coast. 1 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted January 28, 2021 Report Share Posted January 28, 2021 7 minutes ago, Cloud said: I don’t know if they brought the cam back up yet since my internet is down but last I checked they had to bring the airport cam offline. Must be bc the snow is covering everything up. I saw it was down and then it just came back up... at least temporarily. 2 Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted January 28, 2021 Report Share Posted January 28, 2021 9 minutes ago, hawkstwelve said: Improvement on the GEM and GEFS both under the 300 hour mark that's so often decried. Come on EPS... You know you want to... The EPS was certainly getting there on the 12z. 1 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted January 28, 2021 Report Share Posted January 28, 2021 Day 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meatyorologist Posted January 28, 2021 Report Share Posted January 28, 2021 1 minute ago, hawkstwelve said: 00z GFS operational was definitely a warm outlier. That's a great look. Lots of cold members. 3 Quote Weather stats for MBY Snowfall: -Total snowfall since joining: 50.25" -2018-19: 21" -2019-20: 2.5" -2020-21: 13" -2021-22: 8.75" -2022-23: 5.75" -2023-24*: 0.25" -Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024 -Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021 -Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019 Temperatures: -Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021 -Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021 -Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cloud Posted January 28, 2021 Report Share Posted January 28, 2021 5 minutes ago, GHweatherChris said: We are having major issues the last hour as well with them. What’s actually really annoyed me recently with Comcast is the fact they put in a 1.2TB data limit for customers. The cost I can deal with.... but the downtime and data limit sucks. I almost hit it last month bc I spent a lot of time working from home as well. Now I really have to watch it carefully. So lame. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted January 28, 2021 Report Share Posted January 28, 2021 Parallel is cold before day 10. This is getting real now. I expect the regular GFS will come back on the next few runs. 2 1 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted January 28, 2021 Report Share Posted January 28, 2021 2 minutes ago, hawkstwelve said: 00z GFS operational was definitely a warm outlier. A good number of cold ones there. Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted January 28, 2021 Report Share Posted January 28, 2021 1 minute ago, Cloud said: What’s actually really annoyed me recently with Comcast is the fact they put in a 1.2TB data limit for customers. The cost I can deal with.... but the downtime and data limit sucks. I almost hit it last month bc I spent a lot of time working from home as well. Now I really have to watch it carefully. So lame. Same thing happened to us... we decided to just pay for the unlimited. The way they did it really sucked. 1 1 Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted January 28, 2021 Report Share Posted January 28, 2021 Day 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnarkyGoblin Posted January 28, 2021 Report Share Posted January 28, 2021 1 minute ago, Cloud said: What’s actually really annoyed me recently with Comcast is the fact they put in a 1.2TB data limit for customers. The cost I can deal with.... but the downtime and data limit sucks. I almost hit it last month bc I spent a lot of time working from home as well. Now I really have to watch it carefully. So lame. You can pay extra to get unlimited data. I think 20 bucks? A perk to living in a city is more competitive pricing and more options. My Centurylink symmetrical gigabit internet has unlimited data. Think I used around 30 TB last month? All for $65/month including taxes and fees. Sorry, I know me telling you this doesn't help your situation. :(. StarLink will be game changer for many and a worthwhile investment if it ever went public. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted January 28, 2021 Report Share Posted January 28, 2021 5 minutes ago, DJ Droppin said: Day 4 This may be the run we've been waiting for. The GEM and GFD parallel we're both good by day 10. Wouldn't be shocking to see the ECMWF good at that point. Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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