January 2021 weather observations for the PNW

[TT-SEA]

1 minute ago, Acer said:

When I say winter is "cancelled" or "over" or "the ship has sailed", that means according to my interpretation of the model consensus it looks like there is nothing to really hang our hats on.  In late January, when the models extend their coverage out to mid-February and show nothing indicating a real chance for snow or cold, the weenie in me thinks things are looking bad and I might half heartedly claim this winter is over out of exasperation.  Sure, anything can happen but odds are against anything very noteworthy this late in the game.  It's like a 180 from those that get unrealistically excited over some positive indicators that are not showing up in the models.  We are all looking for the same thing and I never quit looking at the models even when I think it really is all over.

I would say there are enough signs right now of something happening during the second week of February to be hopeful for cold and snow.  

[Cloud]

7 hours ago, Jginmartini said:

All runways way closed currently....update later this afternoon.   Let’s see what magic they work.  

It helps that the airport is fairly small so they do a good job with it. It’s really coming down again there now and covering the runway/tarmac again — quite fast! Within half an hour everything is covered. Seems less windy today so the snow isn’t whipping around as much so it’s sticking a lot faster. 

[Winterdog]

7 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

I would say there are enough signs right now of something happening during the second week of February to be hopeful for cold and snow.  

Yeah, hopefully we can pull off something good.  I ain't over till the fat lady sings anyway.  Do we have any members that are fat ladies? 

[MossMan]

32 minutes ago, jakerepp said:

But baseball starts 

I have a good feeling about those M’s this year!! 

[umadbro]

1 minute ago, MossMan said:

I have a good feeling about those M’s this year!! 

There's always next year.

[TT-SEA]

1 minute ago, umadbro said:

There's always next year.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=okXhAC78d4Q

[Prairiedog]

Just now, MossMan said:

I have a good feeling about those M’s this year!! 

Maybe still a year away.  When they bring up Kelenec, JRod, Gilbert, Hancock, and White matures, then we'll see more W's than L's.  We'll see if there's the sophmore jinx for Lewis.  Dipoto might still add pieces but after these kids come up that's when Dipoto will start adding some trade pieces but yea, I have that good feeling too. 

[MWG]

Almost 50 degrees today! Still some rain/snow forecast for tonight and tomorrow morning but with downslope effects I doubt we get anything.

[Winterdog]

Justin already posted on this but it's so lovely I had to post the 850 chart.  -20 850's over Seattle..

 

[MossMan]

7 minutes ago, Acer said:

Justin already posted on this but it's so lovely I had to post the 850 chart.  -20 850's over Seattle..

 

Oh how I would love to see that verify! 

[Prairiedog]

Sends chills down my spine. 

[seattleweatherguy]

10 minutes ago, Acer said:

Justin already posted on this but it's so lovely I had to post the 850 chart.  -20 850's over Seattle..

 

I would love this, it be close to epic.

[Winterdog]

4 minutes ago, seattleweatherguy said:

I would love this, it be close to epic.

I just checked and it shows -32 850's over northern eastern Washington.

[Timmy Supercell]

22 minutes ago, Acer said:

Justin already posted on this but it's so lovely I had to post the 850 chart.  -20 850's over Seattle..

 

Winter Unshunned! 

[Timmy Supercell]

Winds are loud. The side of the house facing south is rumbling.

[weather_fan]

28 minutes ago, Acer said:

Justin already posted on this but it's so lovely I had to post the 850 chart.  -20 850's over Seattle..

 

Only if these can be wrong be less than 35 degrees

[umadbro]

28 minutes ago, Acer said:

Justin already posted on this but it's so lovely I had to post the 850 chart.  -20 850's over Seattle..

 

Is this the FV16 or the regular ol GFS?

[bainbridgekid]

18 minutes ago, Acer said:

Justin already posted on this but it's so lovely I had to post the 850 chart.  -20 850's over Seattle..

 

The "upgrade" needs a major overhaul. It's really frustrating but hopefully they work out the kinks and biases to help actually make a better GFS in the next year or two.

[Deweydog]

32 minutes ago, Acer said:

Justin already posted on this but it's so lovely I had to post the 850 chart.  -20 850's over Seattle..

 

Nice!

[Winterdog]

5 minutes ago, umadbro said:

Is this the FV16 or the regular ol GFS?

The FV16 unfortunately.

[Chewbacca Defense]

4 hours ago, Jginmartini said:

Apparently the roads were in ok shape.  Looks beautiful and peaceful and it’s all yours  

Yeah, I decided to go for it and turn around if it started to get dicey.  Going up was just fine, alternated between snow and rain until I started the final climb up the mountain, then all snow.  One bridge on that climb was a little exciting.

 

Coming back was a different story, it snowed the whole time I was there, and intensified alot as I was putting my gear away.  I took a drive to the top after I got done.  It was 32 when I got up there but 29  when I was leaving.  Heather Meadows was closed (not sure why or if that was typical for during the week) but there will still a few people up sledding or back country skiiing.  The roads were quite snotty up there, but I managed just fine, especially after I disabled traction control.  Snowed all the way off the mountain, then had sunbreaks on the way home.

 

Currently sitting at 39 here at the house.

[Winterdog]

3 minutes ago, bainbridgekid said:

The "upgrade" needs a major overhaul. It's really frustrating but hopefully they work out the kinks and biases to help actually make a better GFS in the next year or two.

For sure but wasn't there times last year when this version did pretty good?

[AbbyJr]

Seriously, whats going on with the GFS Parallel???

[Meatyorologist]

Lots of random variations in the GEFS, but very close to something good.

[Meatyorologist]

Just now, AbbyJr said:

Seriously, whats going on with the GFS Parallel???

Not enough terrain influence IMO. Like the GFS from the last decade, but not quite as bad.

[Winterdog]

10 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

Not enough terrain influence IMO. Like the GFS from the last decade, but not quite as bad.

Yeah, but the best part of this is the block which really isn't a terrain affected feature.  If we have a block like that we would get cold, how cold it gets is where the terrain plays it's role I think.

[MossMan]

11 minutes ago, bainbridgekid said:

The "upgrade" needs a major overhaul. It's really frustrating but hopefully they work out the kinks and biases to help actually make a better GFS in the next year or two.

You you saying this is not going to verify...

Negitive Nancy. 

[MossMan]

5 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

Not enough terrain influence IMO. Like the GFS from the last decade, but not quite as bad.

C’MON!! The MRF was a weather weenie’s damp dream! 

[Link]

1 hour ago, Acer said:

Yeah, hopefully we can pull off something good.  I ain't over till the fat lady sings anyway.  Do we have any members that are fat ladies? 

You mean something like this?You mean this? Fat lady sings - YouTube

[snow_wizard]

I'm really getting stoked about the prospects for February now.  Another epic parallel GFS run and the the 18z also had a very cold run on the GFS ensemble control.  Besides that the EPS was much better also.  The idea of a bridge between the PNA block and the NAO block is gaining more support all the time which means a displaced PV is pretty possible.

[jakerepp]

1 hour ago, Prairiedog said:

Maybe still a year away.  When they bring up Kelenec, JRod, Gilbert, Hancock, and White matures, then we'll see more W's than L's.  We'll see if there's the sophmore jinx for Lewis.  Dipoto might still add pieces but after these kids come up that's when Dipoto will start adding some trade pieces but yea, I have that good feeling too. 

I’m still not sold on Lewis. Too many strikeouts, although his walk rate last year was encouraging. But he definitely slumped in the second half of the season. Hard to believe he’s only played 76 MLB games, so there’s room to develop still.

But there’s a lot to be excited about, for sure. I expect a fun, if not middling season in 2021, but then a real breakout and contending team in 2022 and beyond.

[snow_wizard]

49 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

Not enough terrain influence IMO. Like the GFS from the last decade, but not quite as bad.

It shows a PV over Alberta at the 500mb level.  Terrain has no influence that high up.  People get too hung up on that when talking about upper level stuff.

[SouthHillFrosty]

1 minute ago, jakerepp said:

I’m still not sold on Lewis. Too many strikeouts, although his walk rate last year was encouraging. But he definitely slumped in the second half of the season. Hard to believe he’s only played 76 MLB games, so there’s room to develop still.

But there’s a lot to be excited about, for sure. I expect a fun, if not middling season in 2021, but then a real breakout and contending team in 2022 and beyond.

The Mariners are like a artic blast, always a letdown and never happen

[MossMan]

Had a high of 43.

Currently 38.

.08” of lumpy rain on the day.

[snow_wizard]

45 minutes ago, MossMan said:

You you saying this is not going to verify...

Negitive Nancy. 

He stating it like he knows the model is bad.  We haven't seen if it's going to be right yet.  He's a definite GFS hater, but it has actually been pretty good this year.  The ECMWF has laid some really rotten eggs as well.

As of now we don't know enough about the parallel to make a judgement.

[snow_wizard]

3 minutes ago, SouthHillFrosty said:

The Mariners are like a artic blast, always a letdown and never happen

We just had Feb 2019 less than two years ago.  Why are people so negative on here all the time?

[MossMan]

We have had many many Arctic blasts since the M’s were last in the playoffs! 

[Winterdog]

45/36 here today with only .01” of lumpless rain.

[snow_wizard]

57 minutes ago, AbbyJr said:

Seriously, whats going on with the GFS Parallel???

Interestingly there is some support for a displaced PV with tanked NAO and AO combining with a -PNA.  Some EPS ensemble members are pretty extreme.  Not saying an extreme outcome is likely, but it' possible.

[snow_wizard]

4 minutes ago, MossMan said:

We have had many many Arctic blasts since the M’s were last in the playoffs! 

Yeah.  It's pretty ridiculous to say we never get Arctic air here.  February has been pretty good the past decade.