January 2021 weather observations for the PNW

[MossMan]

8 minutes ago, TacomaWaWx said:

Phred should make it so you get locked out of the forum after 3 cancels and uncancels! 

That would be Jesse’s dream!! 

[Rubus Leucodermis]

2 hours ago, MossMan said:

Well all I got is lumpy rain from my current shades of grey. Hope this works out a little better. 

I got slushy rain that was occasionally all snow, with no accumulations. A little bit more wintry, but not much.

[SouthHillFrosty]

50 minutes ago, TacomaWaWx said:

2” of snow here the last 2 winters combined lol. We only average like 6” a year though. 

1.2 inches in the last two years here....could be worse!!

[Deweydog]

Winter cancels in a cancel culture just over 30 years after Cop Rock was cancelled.  No coincidence that our top tier air mass futility since then has been perennial.

[Winterdog]

I deleted my post on winter canceling because it was way too controversial.

[Chewbacca Defense]

It held off until I got back to my car but now it’s really dumping up here...

[TT-SEA]

North Bend is making a run at 50 this afternoon...

 

[Slushy Inch]

Yesterday's CFS run vs todays. Pattern is looking better in the long range. GEFS from this morning also has troughing a bit closer to the PNW, hope the trend continues.

[TT-SEA]

[Timmy Supercell]

Winter '20-'21

[TacomaWaWx]

41 minutes ago, Acer said:

I deleted my post on winter canceling because it was way too controversial.

lol I mean it’s just like for instance canceling summer because it’s been wet and rainy all the way through July 27th. Still all of august left! There’s still lots of time in the game. Not that us canceling winter has any actual effect on what the weather does. We just can’t see reliably past 5-7 days usually. Ensembles look good right now though! 

[TT-SEA]

Just now, TacomaWaWx said:

lol I mean it’s just like for instance canceling summer because it’s been wet and rainy all the way through July 27th. There’s still lots of time in the game. Not that us canceling winter has any actual effect on what the weather does. We just can’t see reliably past 5-7 days usually. Ensembles look good right now though! 

Actually that is quite a bit different... wet and rainy all the way through July 27th would warrant some level of summer cancel.   In the winter we are just looking for one nice regional event of cold and snow that might last 3 or 4 days to call it a good winter.   We are not looking for just a couple nice days in the summer that feel like summer.    That would be sad.   

[Timmy Supercell]

2 minutes ago, TacomaWaWx said:

lol I mean it’s just like for instance canceling summer because it’s been wet and rainy all the way through July 27th. Still all of august left! There’s still lots of time in the game. Not that us canceling winter has any actual effect on what the weather does. We just can’t see reliably past 5-7 days usually. Ensembles look good right now though! 

Or like in 1995 when summer was in September.

[Timmy Supercell]

Summer gets a slightly different treatment. I was one of the few that didn't mind 2012 even though on paper the first half was statistically very wet. Still, some nice moments to be had that summer.

[Timmy Supercell]

[TacomaWaWx]

16 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Actually that is quite a bit different... wet and rainy all the way through July 27th would warrant some level of summer cancel.   In the winter we are just looking for one nice regional event of cold and snow that might last 3 or 4 days to call it a good winter.   We are not looking for just a couple nice days in the summer that feel like summer.    That would be sad.   

You get my point though 

[Deweydog]

30 minutes ago, TacomaWaWx said:

lol I mean it’s just like for instance canceling summer because it’s been wet and rainy all the way through July 27th. Still all of august left! There’s still lots of time in the game. Not that us canceling winter has any actual effect on what the weather does. We just can’t see reliably past 5-7 days usually. Ensembles look good right now though! 

July 27th and January 27th are not direct opposites of each other, climatologically speaking. Summer seasonal lag is far more pronounced here.  We don’t lament the fact “winter starts on January 5th” for a reason. Climate norms dictate that summer temps remain at their seasonal peak into mid August.  We waved goodbye to our winter peak almost three weeks ago.

That said, meteorological winter ends February 28th. There’s no way to know when that occurs but a blend of the MRF, AVN and NOGAPS suggest it’s about a month out.  Time will tell!

[TT-SEA]

4 minutes ago, TacomaWaWx said:

You get my point though 

I understand not canceling winter in January.   Particularly in a Nina year when we could easily see multiple events even in March.   It seems foolhardy right now to assume there will be no cold and snow for the rest of the cold season.

But your summer analogy is a bad one for reasons previously stated.

 

[TT-SEA]

The summer analogy might be good if you compare it to cheering for just one extreme heat event for a few days to call it a good summer... which is comparable to cheering for one good cold and snow event to call it a good winter.   It would not be wise to assume there is no chance of a heat wave after July 27th regardless of what has happened up to that point. 

[The Blob]

Just putting the pressure on, thanks Garden Time TV.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

3 minutes ago, The Blob said:

Just putting the pressure on, thanks Garden Time TV.

Looks like you have this place figured out!

[The Blob]

1 minute ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Looks like you have this place figured out!

I would hope after a year I would know everyone's weather preference.

[TT-SEA]

10 minutes ago, The Blob said:

Just putting the pressure on, thanks Garden Time TV.

This is not right... spring starts in 32 days.  

[SilverFallsAndrew]

3 minutes ago, The Blob said:

I would hope after a year I would know everyone's weather preference.

My preference is perpetual disappointment and overwhelming sadness.

[The Blob]

3 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

My preference is perpetual disappointment and overwhelming sadness.

I'm still sad it won't be 90° next month 

[Prairiedog]

Winter not canceled until the frogs start chorusing.  Oh oh, that will be in about a week.  It's like clockwork.  Hopefully there will be some frogs with iced over ponds yet maybe?.  Noticed that a few birds are starting to sing.  Happens every end of Jan regardless of weather.  All about photoperiods.  Same for the frogs. 

[BLI snowman]

Sub-498 thickness for Bellingham!

[MossMan]

I like snow and cold in the winter, and sun and warmth in the summer. I hate the month of April. 

[MossMan]

2 minutes ago, Prairiedog said:

Winter not canceled until the frogs start chorusing.  Oh oh, that will be in about a week.  It's like clockwork.  Hopefully there will be some frogs with iced over ponds yet maybe?.  Noticed that a few birds are starting to sing.  Happens every end of Jan regardless of weather.  All about photoperiods.  Same for the frogs. 

I had frogs last week!! 

[GHweatherChris]

2 minutes ago, Prairiedog said:

Winter not canceled until the frogs start chorusing.  Oh oh, that will be in about a week.  It's like clockwork.  Hopefully there will be some frogs with iced over ponds yet maybe?.  Noticed that a few birds are starting to sing.  Happens every end of Jan regardless of weather.  All about photoperiods.  Same for the frogs. 

They are already singing here.

[Omegaraptor]

I don’t think I can trust any significant Arctic cold and lowland snow shown more than 4-5 days out. Kinda learned my lesson after last winter.

[jakerepp]

1 minute ago, MossMan said:

I like snow and cold in the winter, and sun and warmth in the summer. I hate the month of April. 

But baseball starts 

[Prairiedog]

Just now, MossMan said:

I had frogs last week!! 

Dang!  You live close to Hanford then.  LOL

[Prairiedog]

Not sure what's wrong with mine.  Usually any day now in the last week of Jan or first of Feb.  They need to start singing pretty soon. 

[Timmy Supercell]

When this place starts getting crickets at night, we'll know the season is wrapping up.

[Prairiedog]

4 minutes ago, jakerepp said:

But baseball starts 

https://www.springtrainingcountdown.com/

[jakerepp]

3 minutes ago, Prairiedog said:

https://www.springtrainingcountdown.com/

Hey! I feel like I haven't seen you around in a while!

[TT-SEA]

44 minutes ago, The Blob said:

Just putting the pressure on, thanks Garden Time TV.

Saw this on facebook today... from SE Vancouver Island.   This does not prevent an arctic blast from happening in February!  

 

[Prairiedog]

I do a lot of salmon and steelhead fishing.  I'm in and out of my sled a lot and take a little time to catch up on what kind of drama is brewing here when there's a threat of cold rain, fog, or slush or letter E.  LOL

[Winterdog]

41 minutes ago, TacomaWaWx said:

lol I mean it’s just like for instance canceling summer because it’s been wet and rainy all the way through July 27th. Still all of august left! There’s still lots of time in the game. Not that us canceling winter has any actual effect on what the weather does. We just can’t see reliably past 5-7 days usually. Ensembles look good right now though! 

When I say winter is "cancelled" or "over" or "the ship has sailed", that means according to my interpretation of the model consensus it looks like there is nothing to really hang our hats on.  In late January, when the models extend their coverage out to mid-February and show nothing indicating a real chance for snow or cold, the weenie in me thinks things are looking bad and I might half heartedly claim this winter is over out of exasperation.  Sure, anything can happen but odds are against anything very noteworthy this late in the game.  It's like a 180 from those that get unrealistically excited over some positive indicators that are not showing up in the models.  We are all looking for the same thing and I never quit looking at the models even when I think it really is all over.