January 2015 Observations for the Pacific Northwest

[richard mann]

So, we know from historical resources and extensive research that some on here have done that the frequency and magnitude of PNW winter events prior to 1980 was greater than now.  Climate info./records seem to become pretty sparse prior to 1880 and mostly come to a halt around the 1850's-60's.  Does anyone have any ideas what winters were like prior to 1850?  Does the trend of uptick and severity of winter events continue to rise the further back in history you go?  How bout the 18th century?  17th century?  16th century?  This really intrigues me.  I can only imagine what PNW climate was like in the years after the ice retreated....

 

 

EDIT:  Sorry if I posted this in the wrong place.  Wasn't sure where else to post...

Maybe here:  "Past Weather Events Discussion 1800s to present", this broader Forum Section, "The West".

 

—> http://theweatherforums.com/index.php/topic/715-past-weather-events-discussion-1800s-to-present/

[Bryant]

Looks like the radar is just starting to show some precip up by the border, anyone seeing any flakes yet?

Had a mist in Bellingham.

[MikeBC]

Looks like the radar is just starting to show some precip up by the border, anyone seeing any flakes yet?

Had mixed precip up here.

 

The arctic front past Yale, BC. That town is about 20 miles north of Hope.

[Front Ranger]

Had mixed precip up here.

 

The arctic front past Yale, BC. That town is about 20 miles north of Hope.

 

Rain has just turned to snow in Hope as the DP dropped a bit. 

 

I have serious doubts anyone south of the border will see any accumulation at this point, but if the outflow could just crank up a little bit, at least the cold air is close.

[Skagit Weather]

37/30 here. Not sure how I have such a low dew point, but it would be nice if it began to snow.

[HighlandExperience]

37/30 here. Not sure how I have such a low dew point, but it would be nice if it began to snow.

 

Sad to think the models just over a week ago were showing us about to get slammed.

 

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2014122818/gfs_T850_nwus_25.png

[MossMan]

I am at a temp of 33 with a DP of 29,

[Skagit Weather]

Looks like 850mb temps are -5 to -3 and 925mb temps are just below freezing so there is a possibility.

 

[MikeBC]

Rain has just turned to snow in Hope as the DP dropped a bit. 

 

I have serious doubts anyone south of the border will see any accumulation at this point, but if the outflow could just crank up a little bit, at least the cold air is close.

I believe there is a chance that Ferndale and Lynden will see light accumulation since they are in the mid 30's. Also, they are in the outflow area so the chance is not out of the question. Im wondering how cold Hope would get in a couple of hours later. They are forecasted to drop to the freezing mark (32F) tonight ...It looks like they might be colder than that.

[snow_wizard]

Would you say the last 30 years have been an anomaly when viewing the last 500 years?

 

Absolutely.

 

There was a period from the winter of 1937-38 through 1941-42 that was probably as bad or worse than any 5 year period we have seen in the last 30, but the overall period of mild winters was less than 10 years (1937-38 through 1945-46).  Quite interesting to note things did a complete 180 starting with 1946-47.

[MossMan]

Wow, a quite night on the forum. Currently 34 and drizzle here.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Not a lot of excitement to look forward to in the models over the next couple of weeks. Hope our northern friends can see a few flakes tonight and some of our B.C. compatriots can get some accumulations. The next 12-18 houers are probably the extent of our winter weather threat for the next two weeks at least.

[IbrChris]

I remember her!  She was the nicest.  Always helped me with my met hw.

 

Ah Dr. Pu...one of my favorites. Can you imagine if Dr. Holton taught dynamic met at the U? I have my textbook still, Dynamic Meterology 4th Ed but d**n that thing was terse.

 

That said, West when were you at the U? I was there Fall 07 to Spring 10.

 

Dr Mace on the other hand...I think his RA/TA taught most of the remote sensing course. Probably one of the least approachable profs I recall and ironically one of the highest paid in the dept (more than Steenburgh who was dept chair in that era). My favorites were Drs. Perry, Pu and Steenburgh. Dr. Strong was good too.

[IbrChris]

Yeah, with Dr. Pu if you had her while you were here.

Yep Derek. If I didn't land my gig here in Portland I would have been doing my Masters over at Wisconsin-Madison. Figured $50k starting was better than loans for the first semester or two at U-Wisc and $20k a year as a TA/RA. I don't regret my decision but the masters would have been nice...probably not in the cards now though as I'm in my early 30s with three kiddos to support.

 

Drew Peterson was working with Pu as an undergrad RA when I was there. He graduated Dec 2009 and joined NWS Sacramento where he is today as far as I know.

[BLI snowman]

What are you thinking for my area? I see that the WRF gives us some snow tonight.

 

It's currently 33.6 with drizzle out here, but a light east wind. It was snowing up at 3,000 where we were sledding today though, so there is some colder air aloft.

 

I'd guess  just a wet mix at best, if not then nothing seems pretty likely. Either way will be a quick event with the onshore push.

[Guest Winterdog]

I know this is old news but not much disagreement among the members on the 18Z, haven't seen a tight array like that in a long time.  It sure looks wet for the next few days and warm for the next couple weeks.  Wow that is ugly.

[HighlandExperience]

I know this is old news but not much disagreement among the members on the 18Z, haven't seen a tight array like that in a long time.  It sure looks wet for the next few days and warm for the next couple weeks.  Wow that is ugly.

1-3-14 18Z Ens.png

 

Looks terrible for the next 10 days. 

[IbrChris]

So, we know from historical resources and extensive research that some on here have done that the frequency and magnitude of PNW winter events prior to 1980 was greater than now.  Climate info./records seem to become pretty sparse prior to 1880 and mostly come to a halt around the 1850's-60's.  Does anyone have any ideas what winters were like prior to 1850?  Does the trend of uptick and severity of winter events continue to rise the further back in history you go?  How bout the 18th century?  17th century?  16th century?  This really intrigues me.  I can only imagine what PNW climate was like in the years after the ice retreated....

 

 

EDIT:  Sorry if I posted this in the wrong place.  Wasn't sure where else to post...

Effects from LIA gave much of North America and Europe rather frequent cold winters from the mid 1600s to mid 1800s...effects were probably more pronounced across eastern NA and NW Europe than western NA however. Dalton Minimum from 1790-1830 probably contributed to cold winters in that timeframe as well. 1816 was the year without a summer in the NE US as a result of Tambora. 1834-1835 was quite cold in the eastern US as well, colder than the modern era along the northern I-95 corridor esp. Earliest detailed data I can find for the PNW is winter 1833-34 at Ft Vancouver when a coldest low of 6 was recorded. It didn't strike me as a super cold winter but a few events with snow occurred. April 1834 featured an early heatwave to rival April 1926 in the Portland area.

[MossMan]

I know this is old news but not much disagreement among the members on the 18Z, haven't seen a tight array like that in a long time.  It sure looks wet for the next few days and warm for the next couple weeks.  Wow that is ugly.

1-3-14 18Z Ens.png

Looks better after mid month anyway!

[Phil]

Effects from LIA gave much of North America and Europe rather frequent cold winters from the mid 1600s to mid 1800s...effects were probably more pronounced across eastern NA and NW Europe than western NA however. Dalton Minimum from 1790-1830 probably contributed to cold winters in that timeframe as well. 1816 was the year without a summer in the NE US as a result of Tambora. 1834-1835 was quite cold in the eastern US as well, colder than the modern era along the northern I-95 corridor esp. Earliest detailed data I can find for the PNW is winter 1833-34 at Ft Vancouver when a coldest low of 6 was recorded. It didn't strike me as a super cold winter but a few events with snow occurred. April 1834 featured an early heatwave to rival April 1926 in the Portland area.

Actually, it's pretty clear based on sediment deposits that there was substantial glacier growth/expansion throughout western North America during the LIA, including in the PNW.

 

The cooling in the PNW during the Maunder Minimum was likely much larger than the cooling during the Dalton Minimum.

[IbrChris]

Actually, it's pretty clear based on sediment deposits that there was substantial glacier growth/expansion throughout western North America during the LIA, including in the PNW.

 

The cooling in the PNW during the Maunder Minimum was likely much larger than the cooling during the Dalton Minimum.

 Wouldn't take much drop in mean temp to commence some impressive glacial expansion given our high precipitation climate with cool summers allowing for varying amounts of winter snow to survive the summer each year. There's a reason it was called Little Ice Age.

[Skagit Weather]

Just in case anyone was wondering...It's going to be wet the next couple of days.

 

http://www.atmos.washington.edu/mm5rt/data/2015010400/images_d3/wa_pcp72.72.0000.gif

[VancouverIslandSouth]

Looking at some of the cams and weather stations tonight this is turning into an interesting little event up in Masset, temperatures dropped steadily through the day up there from about 4C (39F) with rain/drizzle late last night to -1C (30F) and snow now and strong East winds; impressive considering the large body of water the cold air would need to cross and marginal upper level support. Low level cold air seepage at its finest. Not much going on over Vancouver Island at the moment, only point of interest is the Alberni Summit, which is far inland and about 1000ft asl.

[richard mann]

Wow, a quite night on the forum. Currently 34 and drizzle here.

 

Sketchy precip. with the more sketchy organization, broken ridge-crest, lesser low to the NW. .A general reset pattern-wise, with main cold's only just having begun to move and spread more south again. .Not much showing of interest more at 7-10 days out, models wise.  

 

15010112z-15010303z 3-hrly satsfc na-ep.gif  (Gif loop.) 

 

— Perhaps a few of the reasons why. 

[IbrChris]

Just in case anyone was wondering...It's going to be wet the next couple of days.

 

Not bad in the Hillsboro Hole...around 0.32"

[snow_wizard]

I know this is old news but not much disagreement among the members on the 18Z, haven't seen a tight array like that in a long time.  It sure looks wet for the next few days and warm for the next couple weeks.  Wow that is ugly.

1-3-14 18Z Ens.png

 

That downturn at the end is new though.

[snow_wizard]

Effects from LIA gave much of North America and Europe rather frequent cold winters from the mid 1600s to mid 1800s...effects were probably more pronounced across eastern NA and NW Europe than western NA however. Dalton Minimum from 1790-1830 probably contributed to cold winters in that timeframe as well. 1816 was the year without a summer in the NE US as a result of Tambora. 1834-1835 was quite cold in the eastern US as well, colder than the modern era along the northern I-95 corridor esp. Earliest detailed data I can find for the PNW is winter 1833-34 at Ft Vancouver when a coldest low of 6 was recorded. It didn't strike me as a super cold winter but a few events with snow occurred. April 1834 featured an early heatwave to rival April 1926 in the Portland area.

 

1833-34 was supposedly amazing in the Puget Sound region according to some writings from an official of the Hudson's Bay Company who described that winter in Nisqually.

[snow_wizard]

The GFS operational and parallel are in agreement on a big inversion situation during week two.  Something different at least.  The analogs continue to be from years that had something to offer a bit down the road.

[MossMan]

That downturn at the end is new though.

Does the 0z ensembles look similar with that drop after the 15th?

[snow_wizard]

You can certainly add the ECMWF to the inversion camp for week two.  Pressure gradients go to very weak offshore with the PNW being completely high and dry.  In fact the entire United States looks to be totally dominated by surface high pressure in the 8 to 10 period while a gigantic area of low pressure churns well out over the Pacific.  I'm intrigued by how far west that area of low pressure will be compared to what we saw in the Oct - Dec period.

[snow_wizard]

Does the 0z ensembles look similar with that drop after the 15th?

 

It still shows it though not quite as sharp.  May be something to watch.

[snow_wizard]

The Canadian ensemble has a fair number of good members at the end of the run as heights begin to rise over the GOA.  Probably about 1/3 of the members are quite good.

 

I feel a bit better about things than I did a couple of days ago.

[snow_wizard]

It appears this may be a serious round of river flooding coming up.  The trajectory of the moisture being forecast is usually bad news for rivers running off the West slopes of the Cascades in particular.  Going to be a lot of recently fallen snow to melt and add to the problem.

[MikeInEverett]

33 with rain and a dew point of 33 in Everett, WA... So close 

[bainbridgekid]

33 with rain and a dew point of 33 in Everett, WA... So close

You sure about that?

 

It's 38/35 at Paine Field which is at over 500 feet elevation.

[MikeInEverett]

You sure about that?

 

It's 38/35 at Paine Field which is at over 500 feet elevation.

Well I'm basically in the most eastern part of Everett you can get, a little two minute walk and I'm in the Snohomish area code. I should have said Snohomish :/

[westiztehbest]

Getting some lovely powdery snow atm @ 22F.  Will be interesting to see how much piles up today.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Don't expect the week two inversion to be very cold if it develops. 

[stuffradio]

For those who were jealous of us yesterday, don't be. This was a busted forecast with no snow.

[Parksvillewx]

For those who were jealous of us yesterday, don't be. This was a busted forecast with no snow.

 

I guess temps were just a degree or two too warm. Currently raining and 37F here.