January 2015 Observations for the Pacific Northwest

[snow_wizard]

Not much ensemble support for the -PNA in the 10 to 15 day period, but there are a few members on the GFS and Canadian that support the operational GFS in that regard.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Two years ago at this time I was driving home to feed my dogs after spending the day at Salem Hospital, with heavy wet snow falling. Happy birthday to my beautiful little girl. 

[snow_wizard]

The ECMWF says the nightmare continues.

[richard mann]

(.. cross-reference.)
 
http://theweatherforums.com/index.php/topic/735-early-winter-2014-15-colder-air-mass-movement-and-distribution-projections/?p=66334

[richard mann]

The models are a mess trying to figure out next week. Beyond that, who knows. February could easily have some good things in store. It's very unlikely it will be a repeat of January.

As I see things, the models are having a rough time with at this point colder air's both slowing where considering its main movement and progress east, while at the same time still receding more northward. These ideas along with also, as evidence by the broader-based area of colder air sitting out over the Central Pacific at this point—having moved off of Eastern Asia six or so days ago and having been moving fairly slowly east since—colder air's over-all decreased, even decreasing more general force of movement currently.

 

http://www.ghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/globalir.html

[TT-SEA]

Cool view of the fog this morning...

 

http://s29.postimg.org/riqvy0k5j/nb12.jpg

[TT-SEA]

Updated view... 45 minutes later.

 

http://s3.postimg.org/qtkxuywgz/nb16.jpg

[TT-SEA]

10 days out and the 12Z ECMWF shows the same old thing...

 

http://old.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts/d/getchart/catalog/products/forecasts/medium/deterministic/msl_uv850_z500!Geopotential%20500%20hPa%20and%20Temperature%20at%20850%20hPa!240!North%20America!pop!od!oper!public_plots!2015012812!!chart.gif

[Timmy]

10 days out and the 12Z ECMWF shows the same old thing...

 

 

It wasn't too bad yesterday.  I feel like saying "this run is utter crap"  doesn't hold a lot of weight anymore that "crap" is the new normal.  But seriously, I need to start working at home more because warm fog is a waste of a winter, only when you get above 400ft or so do you get out of the murk and at least get to enjoy the ridging some.

[TT-SEA]

With nice weather through Saturday... it looks like my location will end up with 15 days with rain and 16 dry days for January.     A great month in that regard.   

 

There were 14 dry days in November and 10 dry days in December as well.    

 

40 dry days so far this winter here and a large percentage of the dry days have featured sunshine... even some of the rainy days.     

 

I remember comparing this winter to 1958-59 which had 13 dry days TOTAL from late October through early April and which I consider to be one of the worst winters in history in terms of consistent precipitation.    

 

Already 3 times the number of dry days here compared to that miserable year with 2 months to go!  

[ShawniganLake]

With nice weather through Saturday... it looks like my location will end up with 15 days with rain and 16 dry days for January.     A great month in that regard.   

 

There were 14 dry days in November and 10 dry days in December as well.    

 

40 dry days so far this winter here and a large percentage of the dry days have featured sunshine... even some of the rainy days.     

 

I remember comparing this winter to 1958-59 which had 13 dry days TOTAL from late October through early April and which I consider to be one of the worst winters in history in terms of consistent precipitation.    

 

Already 3 times the number of dry days here compared to that miserable year with 2 months to go!  

Weren't you planning on taking some out of state vacations this January?

[TT-SEA]

Weren't you planning on taking some out of state vacations this January?

 

 

Plans changed... taking a trip in February and another in March.

 

Worked out well because this has been a perfectly pleasant January to be home.   

[AlTahoe]

With nice weather through Saturday... it looks like my location will end up with 15 days with rain and 16 dry days for January.     A great month in that regard.   

 

There were 14 dry days in November and 10 dry days in December as well.    

 

40 dry days so far this winter here and a large percentage of the dry days have featured sunshine... even some of the rainy days.     

 

I remember comparing this winter to 1958-59 which had 13 dry days TOTAL from late October through early April and which I consider to be one of the worst winters in history in terms of consistent precipitation.    

 

Already 3 times the number of dry days here compared to that miserable year with 2 months to go!  

Man the dry day's streak down here in California is off the charts again. The average dry spell in winter for SFO is 19 days. Before this drought there had only been one streak in the 40's since 1950. 1962-1963 had a 42 day streak. 2011-2012 crushed it with 49 days. Sfo looks like they could reach 40+ again this year with models showing nothing through the 7th of Feb and further.

 

From 1950 till 2011 there had only been streaks of 30 days or more 4 times. 

Then after 2011 we had the following

 

        2011-2012 49 days

        2013-2014 36 days

        2014-2015 31 days and counting. 

Pretty remarkable. 

[Rustysprocket]

My impression of model riding as late: Ridge and mild 10 days out = mild.  Cold trough, zonal flow, artic blast, back door event, snow, all 10 days out = mild.

[westcoastexpat]

Yeah... 12Z Euro is awful the entire run. All that cold air wasted to the east. They don't even want it!

[TT-SEA]

Some cherry blossoms in Seattle today... not bad for January 28th.  

 

[TT-SEA]

GFS has come around to a warmer solution for later next week... strong southerly flow and warm 850mb temps.   Good mixing could result in some warm surface temps.

 

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/data/gfs/18/gfs_namer_198_precip_p03.gif

[Deweydog]

Gonna be a quiet start to the month.

[richard mann]

Some cherry blossoms in Seattle today... not bad for January 28th.

Do you know for sure this is a Cherry. ?

[TT-SEA]

Do you know for sure this is a Cherry. ?

 

 

Actually no... but someone can probably verify.   Just assumed based on the look.

[richard mann]

.. I think it's a "plum". The reason that I'd asked is because "cherries" typically flower a mouth later then "plums". You get the general inference here of course. Best years, here more south at least, "quince", "plum", cherry", earlier to later near to a month apart. 

[liquidsnow]

50 days and 22 hours till spring.

[richard mann]

My own best possible scenario spin, attached what's showing both now and where looking ahead out to a week or so.

First, I'm figuring that the models may be at least a bit off. This with what I've suggested above where considering colder air more. And then, with the different elements of what I've suggested as likely playing out, no. 1 the main mass of cold having gathered over Alaska—with not being more firmly established—moving a bit slower SE than what I've noted tacked in here above more model-wise, with some of it hopefully sticking to the more western side of the main Divide north. These ideas with and if otherwise, even if it doesn't, some of its influence mixing with lesser dense cold a bit more west (cold more residual remaining over AK, along with that to its more immediate west.), moving (spreading.) daily south, more as a whole, from the 31st forward.

[TT-SEA]

50 days and 22 hours till spring.

This is not spring?

[richard mann]

What's cookin' on the "Bar-B" this evening, "Tim". (?)

[Tyler Mode]

3rd 60 degree day in January.  That's a first for me!

[Snowman5678]

My friend's dog Jack just north of Concord today. She had to dig out path's for her dog to do his buisness before she could shovel out her driveway and some of her doorways outside. 

[chinook]

Do you know for sure this is a Cherry. ?

I'm not 100 percent positive but going out on a limb (pun intended) I'm thinking it is a flowering cherry. Perhaps, a cultivar named Autumnalis. It's early here for flowering or fruiting plum to bloom. Definitely, not quince.

[richard mann]

.. Warm as it's been. More hoping it hadn't been.

[snow_wizard]

This place is like a tomb this evening. Not surprising.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

This has to be in the top 3 most depressing winters I can remember here. All this after a miserable hot summer. Going to be nice when our normal weather returns.

[snow_wizard]

After a couple of promising GFS runs the 0z is back to pure again.

[snow_wizard]

This has to be in the top 3 most depressing winters I can remember here. All this after a miserable hot summer. Going to be nice when our normal weather returns.

The winter proper has been the horrendous to say the least. Then you have the worthless October thrown in beforehand. In all likelihood we will go into a nice cold period whenever this finally ends. I really don't even have a guess about this summer. I suppose the most likely would be a very warm spring and then summer beginning to gravitate toward normal.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

I would be happy to see front after front and endless rain over this shitty crap.

[snow_wizard]

I would be happy to see front after front and endless rain over this shitty crap.

We're due for a year with persistent NW flow. Those are my favorite kind of years.

[Snowman5678]

Some pictures from the cape during and after the storm.

 

 

Our spit:

 

Community service truck that got stuck in the snow.

 

During the blizzard from the top of the beach...visibility is about 50-100ft. 

 

 

 

Hopefully these posts aren't too off topic but considering how dead it is in here...

[Dan the Weatherman]

Man the dry day's streak down here in California is off the charts again. The average dry spell in winter for SFO is 19 days. Before this drought there had only been one streak in the 40's since 1950. 1962-1963 had a 42 day streak. 2011-2012 crushed it with 49 days. Sfo looks like they could reach 40+ again this year with models showing nothing through the 7th of Feb and further.

 

From 1950 till 2011 there had only been streaks of 30 days or more 4 times. 

Then after 2011 we had the following

 

        2011-2012 49 days

        2013-2014 36 days

        2014-2015 31 days and counting. 

Pretty remarkable. 

It is as if our climate has changed at the flick of a switch sometime in 2011-12 or 2012-13.

[Deweydog]

Rogue calls early in the month for quiet the rest of the way sure are biting those reckless prognosticators in the a**.

 

#don'ttestmothernature

[snow_wizard]

At least it's in the 30s tonight!!! My standards are at an all time low right now.

[epiceast]

http://download.ecmwf.org/data/web249/get_legacy_plot-web249-20150129065611-10003-0111.gif

00z alert/11!!!!!!11!! hour 240 shows some of the most bestest strong zonal flow all winter.