GHweatherChris Posted February 21, 2014 Report Share Posted February 21, 2014 I don't care what several people have said. Look at the models yourself. You can go back and view past runs, too. People don't seem to talk about the Canadian much in here, that doesn't mean it hasn't been consistent. It is clear the the Euro has trended toward the GEM. It's not ambiguous: it is what it is. The GFS is on its own. Out of all three, the GFS is the only one not to waver at all since it started showing up in the models, and the GFS was the first to pick up on it. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
westcoastexpat Posted February 21, 2014 Report Share Posted February 21, 2014 Well one thing is for sure. All this nail biting bickering and cheering wont make a difference. Absolutely. I don't really get why GHweatherChris is so aggressive in response to anything I post. It just clogs up this forum with junk. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
westcoastexpat Posted February 21, 2014 Report Share Posted February 21, 2014 Out of all three, the GFS is the only one not to waver at all since it started showing up in the models, and the GFS was the first to pick up on it. GEM hasn't wavered, dude. Anyway, this is turning into a cyclic argument. I've realized that I can't convince you of the facts, it's something you'll have to look at yourself. I just advise you to look at models yourself rather than banking purely on what you've read in this forum. Please take it to PM with me if you wish to discuss this further. Nobody wants to read this back and forth. I'm bored of it myself. I appreciate your...spirit. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GHweatherChris Posted February 21, 2014 Report Share Posted February 21, 2014 Absolutely. I don't really get why GHweatherChris is so aggressive in response to anything I post. It just clogs up this forum with junk.And your KM posts a bit ago don't? Nothing I dislike more than a hypocrite. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GHweatherChris Posted February 21, 2014 Report Share Posted February 21, 2014 GEM hasn't wavered, dude. Anyway, this is turning into a cyclic argument. I've realized that I can't convince you of the facts, it's something you'll have to look at yourself. I just advise you to look at models yourself rather than banking purely on what you've read in this forum. Please take it to PM with me if you wish to discuss this further. Nobody wants to read this back and forth. I'm bored of it myself. I appreciate your...spirit.You sir, are a piece of work. The GFS showed this event before the other two, that is a fact. And agreed, I would rather talk to my cat. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
westcoastexpat Posted February 21, 2014 Report Share Posted February 21, 2014 And your KM posts a bit ago don't? Nothing I dislike more than a hypocrite. They were light hearted! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighlandExperience Posted February 21, 2014 Report Share Posted February 21, 2014 You sir, are a piece of work. The GFS showed this event before the other two, that is a fact. And agreed, I would rather talk to my cat. Yup gotta give the GFS some props. It saw this event long before some of the other models. Just saying.. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BLI snowman Posted February 21, 2014 Report Share Posted February 21, 2014 Dewpoint already at 26 at BLI. I'm going to be honest, this looks pretty awesome for us in Whatcom County. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MR.SNOWMIZER Posted February 21, 2014 Report Share Posted February 21, 2014 Dewpoint already at 26 at BLI. I'm going to be honest, this looks pretty awesome for us in Whatcom County.I agree. Quote We come from the land of the ice and snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MR.SNOWMIZER Posted February 21, 2014 Report Share Posted February 21, 2014 One thing is for sure, I'd sure hate to be the NWS right now. Most places (especially Central Sound) could see anything from plain ol rain to 5 inches of snow. Makes it kind of hard to notify the public when even more experienced forecasters can't figure it out. Puts them in a hard spot. Go for the gusto, risk getting busted big time. Go for too little, people will say there wasn't enough warning.This is the hardest forecast for snow we have had in a long time. And they know it. I remember in 1996 they said they would just have to see where the snow line settled and make the forecast as the day goes along. This could go that way. Quote We come from the land of the ice and snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poulsbo Snowman Posted February 21, 2014 Report Share Posted February 21, 2014 These recent patterns have been unusually complex; not sure any model had a handle on much of anything this winter. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
westcoastexpat Posted February 21, 2014 Report Share Posted February 21, 2014 These recent patterns have been unusually complex; not sure any model had a handle on much of anything this winter. The Canadian. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MR.SNOWMIZER Posted February 21, 2014 Report Share Posted February 21, 2014 Interesting that at hr 84 on the 18z nam is shows another possible reload close to us again. Quote We come from the land of the ice and snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Monty67 Posted February 21, 2014 Report Share Posted February 21, 2014 Dewpoint already at 26 at BLI. I'm going to be honest, this looks pretty awesome for us in Whatcom County. Abbotsford down to 26 as well. Nanaimo a fairly impressive 22.5 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowman5678 Posted February 21, 2014 Report Share Posted February 21, 2014 Cliff mass wrote an awesome post about the model uncertainty during the February 2011 snow...some of what he said can be applied to this situation. http://cliffmass.blogspot.com/2011/02/how-good-or-bad-was-snow-forecast.html Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
luminen Posted February 21, 2014 Report Share Posted February 21, 2014 Finally sunny here. It's been a dreary month overall. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
χιόνι (chióni) Posted February 21, 2014 Report Share Posted February 21, 2014 Cliff mass wrote an awesome post about the model uncertainty during the February 2011 snow...some of what he said can be applied to this situation. http://cliffmass.blogspot.com/2011/02/how-good-or-bad-was-snow-forecast.htmlNotice the rain/snow shadow over the Central Sound. February 2011 sucked for B.I. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted February 21, 2014 Report Share Posted February 21, 2014 You fool. Don't you know who I am?? I make more money than any mets in the entire region! People FLOCK to my website! Excuse me while I go masturbate to my photo and my weather forecasts.This is only funny because it's true. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brennan Posted February 21, 2014 Report Share Posted February 21, 2014 No posts in an hour... Is this site down or something??? 25 going on 15 today 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
seattleweatherguy Posted February 21, 2014 Report Share Posted February 21, 2014 so the models flop or show something historic because no one has said anything for a long while. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Swamp Posted February 21, 2014 Report Share Posted February 21, 2014 Boo! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GHweatherChris Posted February 21, 2014 Report Share Posted February 21, 2014 so the models flop or show something historic because no one has said anything for a long while.No, the all important GEM doesn't run again until tonight. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted February 21, 2014 Report Share Posted February 21, 2014 No, the all important GEM doesn't run again until tonight.Yeah, getting a little tired of all the bossy, know-it-all posts from everybody's favorite scholarly met today. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MR.SNOWMIZER Posted February 21, 2014 Report Share Posted February 21, 2014 18z looks on track. Amazing steady runs from the gfs. Quote We come from the land of the ice and snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GHweatherChris Posted February 21, 2014 Report Share Posted February 21, 2014 18z looks on track. Amazing steady runs from the gfs.Don't trust it, its wrong. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
seattleweatherguy Posted February 21, 2014 Report Share Posted February 21, 2014 Rain. Low around 35. Calm wind becoming southeast 5 to 7 mph in the evening. Chance of precipitation is 80%. SundayRain likely before 10am, then snow likely. Cloudy, with a high near 42. East northeast wind 5 to 7 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%. New snow accumulation of around an inch possible. Sunday NightSnow likely. Cloudy, with a low around 34. Chance of precipitation is 70%. New snow accumulation of 1 to 2 inches possible. MondayA 30 percent chance of rain. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 42. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
seattleweatherguy Posted February 21, 2014 Report Share Posted February 21, 2014 Timing says Sunday versus Sat hmmm. for NWS Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
westcoastexpat Posted February 21, 2014 Report Share Posted February 21, 2014 No, the all important GEM doesn't run again until tonight. Yeah, getting a little tired of all the bossy, know-it-all posts from everybody's favorite scholarly met today. Don't trust it, its wrong. Oh c'mon guys. If you have an issue with my "bossy" and "all knowing" demeanour then please address it in PM and I will do my best to remedy it. This is a weather forum where we discuss weather; as with anything, there will be disagreeing but if we can't have a mature back and forth, raising fair questions without degrading into insultingly passive aggressive remarks, then the system falls apart. I've even stated that I am barely 60% confident in my own forecast, so even that should assure you that I do not feel all knowing by any stretch--especially in such a borderline situation. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Parksvillewx Posted February 21, 2014 Report Share Posted February 21, 2014 I guess EC doesn't think this is going to amount to much here. They just ended the special weather statement and have "Rain mixed with snow or snow over higher terrain up to 4cm" in the forecast for tonight and tomorrow. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
richard mann Posted February 21, 2014 Report Share Posted February 21, 2014 -Oh c'mon guys. If you have an issue with my "bossy" and "all knowing" demeanour then please address it in PM and I will do my best to remedy it. This is a weather forum where we discuss weather; as with anything, there will be disagreeing but if we can't have a mature back and forth, raising fair questions without degrading into insultingly passive aggressive remarks, then the system falls apart. I've even stated that I am barely 60% confident in my own forecast, so even that sure assure you that I do not feel all knowing by any stretch--especially in such a borderline situation. .. I'll side with deference and form where regarding discussion, of any subject more academic. ( i.e. "good luck". [with that.] ) Quote --- Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted February 21, 2014 Report Share Posted February 21, 2014 Seeing as neither camp of models (cold/warm, rain/snow) has jumped to the other side considerably as we all hoped, I'll be interested to see which suite of models the NWS decides to go with this afternoon. Which ones they might give more credence to. The everlasting, defiant GFS or the climo, equally defiant ECMWF? Blend of the two, most likely.Looks like they are going with the Euro per the latest discussion. Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Skagit Weather Posted February 21, 2014 Report Share Posted February 21, 2014 I am confused with what the NWS is doing, but maybe they are really going conservative. They actually lowered the snow forecasts up here and in Bellingham down to an inch or two. It seems like I should be in a relatively good position for this event, but I guess I will just have to see what falls. Quote Home Wx Station Stats (Since January 2008): Max Temp: 96.3F (2009) Min Temp: 2.0F (2008) Max Wind Gust: 45 mph (2018, 2021) Wettest Day: 2.34 (11/4/22) Avg Yearly Precip: 37" 10yr Avg Snow: 8.0" Snowfall Totals '08-09: 30" | '09-10: 0.5" | '10-11: 21" | '11-12: 9.5" | '12-13: 0.2" | '13-14: 6.2" | '14-15: 0.0" | '15-16: 0.25"| '16-17: 8.0" | '17-18: 0.9"| '18-19: 11.5" | '19-20: 11" | '20-21: 10.5" | '21-22: 21.75" | '22-23: 10.0" 2023-24: 7.0" (1/17: 3", 1/18: 1.5", 2/26: 0.5", 3/4: 2.0", Flakes: 1/11, 1/16) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
westcoastexpat Posted February 21, 2014 Report Share Posted February 21, 2014 I guess EC doesn't think this is going to amount to much here. They just ended the special weather statement and have "Rain mixed with snow or snow over higher terrain up to 4cm" in the forecast for tonight and tomorrow. EC for Vancouver is notoriously conservative with these types of events. I'm sure the snowfall warning will be issued after the warning criteria snow has already fallen. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
seattleweatherguy Posted February 21, 2014 Report Share Posted February 21, 2014 Looks like they are going with the Euro per the latest discussion.seattle weather man hate admittting it will snow. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MR.SNOWMIZER Posted February 21, 2014 Report Share Posted February 21, 2014 Euro is the gold standard. Quote We come from the land of the ice and snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bainbridgekid Posted February 21, 2014 Report Share Posted February 21, 2014 41 here and the DP is already down to 22. 850mb temps currently -7 and 925mb temps -2. Love it. 1 Quote Everett Snowfall (510 feet elevation) Snow since February 2019: 91" 2023-24: 6" 2022-23: 17.5" 2021-22: 17.75" 2020-21: 14.5” 2019-20: 10.5" 2018-19: 24.75" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Canadian guy Posted February 21, 2014 Report Share Posted February 21, 2014 I guess EC doesn't think this is going to amount to much here. They just ended the special weather statement and have "Rain mixed with snow or snow over higher terrain up to 4cm" in the forecast for tonight and tomorrow. I think they are in the process of updating their forecast....looks like snowfall warnings are being issued on the island or at least for the Victoria area. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted February 21, 2014 Report Share Posted February 21, 2014 I am confused with what the NWS is doing, but maybe they are really going conservative. They actually lowered the snow forecasts up here and in Bellingham down to an inch or two. It seems like I should be in a relatively good position for this event, but I guess I will just have to see what falls.Yeah I was hoping for a little more detail with their afternoon discussion. Sounds like they want to follow the Euro so there will not be as much drama. They are going extremely conservative which is fine with me! Seems like whenever they do that, someone in Western Wa will get buried! That discussion seems eerily familiar to what they had posted on that Friday in Nov 2006 when I got hammered with 1.5FT of snowfall on that Sunday into Monday. Maybe history will repeat itself! Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather101 Posted February 21, 2014 Report Share Posted February 21, 2014 EC for Vancouver is notoriously conservative with these types of events. I'm sure the snowfall warning will be issued after the warning criteria snow has already fallen.Bingo Quote 2013/2014 Winter season Coldest Low: 14 F December 7thColdest High: 27.3 F December 7thColdest Wind chill: 5 F December 7thLowest Dew Point: -2.2 F December 6thDays below freezing: 5Total Snowfall: 11 inchesMost snowfall in a Day: 8 inchesDays With Snow: 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighlandExperience Posted February 21, 2014 Report Share Posted February 21, 2014 NWS discussion today is boring. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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