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July 2021 PNW Weather Discussion


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10 minutes ago, Phil said:

But what about the NARRATIVES?!?!11?!1

I'd like to think the fact that we have had the most unprecedented heat wave in the record books has some sort of bearing on why people are comparing this year to 2015, even though yes, technically this year hasn't had the insane sustained warmth that six years ago did. Sort of unfair to talk about narratives when a lot of people are speaking about their lived experiences in comparing this year with that one.

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--Cloud Strife

 

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 

Top 5 Snow Events (post 2014):

 

(1. January 10th, 2017: 18.5 in.

(2. February 6th, 2014: 7.5 inches

(3. February 20th, 2018: 5.0 inches

(4. February 21st, 2018: 4.0 inches

(5. December 14th, 2016: 3.5 inches

 

Honourable Mentions: December 7th, 2018, February 9th, 2019.

 

Total since joining the Weather Forums: 3"

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Just now, Requiem said:

I'd like to think the fact that we have had the most unprecedented heat wave in the record books has some sort of bearing on why people are comparing this year to 2015, even though yes, technically this year hasn't had the insane sustained warmth that six years ago did. Sort of unfair to talk about narratives when a lot of people are speaking about their lived experiences in comparing this year with that one.

This.

Well said.   

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6 minutes ago, Front Ranger said:

Improved here...been very fortunate this spring/summer.

Takes a bit for data to come out but June ended up being 5th warmest on record for the earth since 1880 and warmest on record for NA, with majority of the heat focused on the Western US obviously contributing to the drought conditions. 
 

Unfortunately with some of the narrative being pushed on here, we wouldn’t know we are in a drought or it’s actually warmer/drier.

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10 minutes ago, Requiem said:

I'd like to think the fact that we have had the most unprecedented heat wave in the record books has some sort of bearing on why people are comparing this year to 2015, even though yes, technically this year hasn't had the insane sustained warmth that six years ago did. Sort of unfair to talk about narratives when a lot of people are speaking about their lived experiences in comparing this year with that one.

Stats are stats. Of course the June heatwave was unprecedented and a historic event that will always live in the minds of those that experienced it.

Doesn't change the fact that despite the extreme heatwave, this summer is running easily cooler than 2015 for most westside stations, and July has been very different than June for most places.

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4 minutes ago, Front Ranger said:

One warm day for the western lowlands and then back to marine influence.

Technically there is almost always marine influence on the west side unless there is offshore flow which is rare in the summer.  

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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4 minutes ago, Front Ranger said:

One warm day for the western lowlands and then back to marine influence.

12z EPS following suit. Knocked off about half of the positive departure in the D5-10 range compared to 12z yesterday.

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15 minutes ago, Front Ranger said:

Stats are stats. Of course the June heatwave was unprecedented and a historic event that will always live in the minds of those that experienced it.

Doesn't change the fact that despite the extreme heatwave, this summer is running easily cooler than 2015 for most westside stations, and July has been very different than June for most places.

Of course stats are stats, but I don't think anyone is even hinting this year is so far hotter than 2015. Still doesn't make it anything close cool summer regardless of the fact we haven't had sustained warmth like in 2015, and the heat wave absolutely shifts the perception of how this summer is going so far. 

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"Let's mosey!"

 

--Cloud Strife

 

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 

Top 5 Snow Events (post 2014):

 

(1. January 10th, 2017: 18.5 in.

(2. February 6th, 2014: 7.5 inches

(3. February 20th, 2018: 5.0 inches

(4. February 21st, 2018: 4.0 inches

(5. December 14th, 2016: 3.5 inches

 

Honourable Mentions: December 7th, 2018, February 9th, 2019.

 

Total since joining the Weather Forums: 3"

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6 minutes ago, Requiem said:

Of course stats are stats, but I don't think anyone is even hinting this year is so far hotter than 2015. Still doesn't make it anything close cool summer regardless of the fact we haven't had sustained warmth like in 2015, and the heat wave absolutely shifts the perception of how this summer is going so far. 

Perception ≠ reality, necessarily.

Outside those 4 days of atrociousness, it has been a tame summer west of the terrain.

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1 minute ago, Requiem said:

Of course stats are stats, but I don't think anyone is even hinting this year is so far hotter than 2015. Still doesn't make it anything close cool summer regardless of the fact we haven't had sustained warmth like in 2015, and the heat wave absolutely shifts the perception of how this summer is going so far. 

There was a lot of speculation in June that a 2015-like pattern was locking in and that this summer was destined to be top tier hot.

Could still end up that way, but I think it was fair to counter Andrew's inference that SEA was the only station running easily cooler than 2015. July has changed things, regardless of the June heatwave and perceptions people had because of it.

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2 minutes ago, Phil said:

Perception ≠ reality, necessarily.

Outside those 4 days of atrociousness, it has been a tame summer west of the terrain.

Would you call a record pace for 90+ days throughout the Willamette and Umpqua Valleys "tame"?

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2 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

Would you call a record pace for 90+ days throughout the Willamette and Umpqua Valleys "tame"?

Definitely been cooler from Portland north.

I dunno...do Portland and Seattle count as part of the PNW?

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1 hour ago, AlTahoe said:

We set record highs on 4 straight days this month which was a record for consecutive record days. Lol 
I am 2000' feet higher than you and averaging 87.5F 

Reno is at your elevation and averaging 100.2F which is astounding! 

I tied 2 this month but technically you have to be +1 over the previous record to break it. Right now a lot of them are 100 or 99. I've been within close range of those a few days.

Before 2021 my last 100+ was in 2013, so KLMT does not see a lot of them. 3 in a row happened in late June. 

Weather Data for Klamath Falls, OR
-------------------------------------------------------------------
Snowfall (with % of seasonal average)

2010-2011 - 60.70" (168%)
2011-2012 - 49.00" (136%)
2012-2013 - 25.10" (70%)
2013-2014 - 9.05" (25%)
2014-2015 - 2.90" (8%)
2015-2016 - 54.45" (151%)
2016-2017 - 63.00" (175%)
2017-2018 - 18.10" (50%)
2018-2019 - 52.30" (145%)
2019-2020 - 37.00" (103%)
2020-2021 - 19.00" (53%)
 
2021 Thunderstorms (7)
05/14, 06/22, 06/24, 07/27, 07/29
07/31, 08/01, 
 
Biggest Snowstorm - 18.4" (Jan 3-4 2017 - 26 hours)
Top 5 Daily Snows: 12.40" (01/03/2017), 8.20" (11/23/2010), 7.50" (12/13/2015), 6.60" (02/07/2017), 6.20" (03/10/2019)
Honorable Mention: 6.00" (03/20/2012), 6.00" (02/28/2012), 6.00" (01/16/2020), 5.70" (12/14/2016), 5.50" (01/18/2012)
Max Depths: 21.00" (01/07/2017), 18.00" (12/24/2015), 13.00" (01/16/2020), 11.00" (11/23/2010), 9.50" (02/27/2019), 9.00" (02/28/2012)
 
T'storm Days: 10 (2020), 14 (2019), 16 (2018), 12 (2017), 13 (2016), 20 (2015), 21 (2014), 16 (2013), 2 (2012), 12 (2011)
1980-2015 Avg = 12
Severe T'storms: 6 (08/05/2020), (08/10/2019), (08/08/2017), (07/24/2017), (01/19/2016), (08/05/2012) 
"Almost" Severe: 2 (08/10/2017), (05/04/2016)
Vicinity Severe T'storms (close enough to hear, with official severe reports)
(06/26/2017), (08/05/2016), (07/09/2015), (07/05/2015), (06/09/2015), (08/05/2014), (08/04/2014), (08/22/2013), (08/12/2013), (09/12/2011), (09/04/2011)

 

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Just now, Front Ranger said:

Definitely been cooler from Portland north.

I dunno...do Portland and Seattle count as part of the PNW?

Yep, merely been a historically warm first half of summer there. As opposed to an all time recordbreaking one with a  record-shattering pace for a major historic benchmark (I mean besides the big one that both of those cities already set three weeks ago).

Great point!

And yeah Western OR has never felt like the PNW to me, either. And the eastside is gross and doesn't count and there's not a lot of real people out there anyways.

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9 minutes ago, TacomaWaWx said:

Love it how the 2 people trying to downplay how warm it’s been this summer live thousands of miles away and aren’t actually even experiencing it. 

Yeah, it's honestly gotten pretty annoying.

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8 minutes ago, Phil said:

Total 15 day positive departure has been cut by roughly 40% on the 12z EPS vs 00z.

😀

That is a new way to troll... don't mention any location or method of calculation. 

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14 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

Yep, merely been a historically warm first half of summer there. As opposed to an all time recordbreaking one with a  record-shattering pace for a major historic benchmark (I mean besides the big one that both of those cities already set three weeks ago).

Great point!

And yeah Western OR has never felt like the PNW to me, either. And the eastside is gross and doesn't count and there's not a lot of real people out there anyways.

Joe Bastardi was downplaying the NW heat. In his eyes, the coastlines were cool and the interior was sweltering. He also pointed out that less than 10% of the NW population lives in the interior region. So it really doesn't matter. Sorry to all the tumbleweeds in Spokane, Yakima, Pendleton, Tri-Cities, and everywhere else.🌵☀🏜

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34 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

1) Since April 1st

2) Last 60 days

3) Last 30 days

4) July so far

 

 

anomimage (7).png

anomimage (8).png

anomimage (9).png

anomimage (10).png

No one is disputing it's been a very warm spring/summer for the PNW and the West overall.

However, unlike 2015 the western lowlands have been spared the worst of it. As I've been saying - a different kind of summer.

JJA15TDeptWRCC-NW.png.4f1328f6d105f59ca15fd347203bb417.png

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R.I.P Gearhart Wilderness. 

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Weather Data for Klamath Falls, OR
-------------------------------------------------------------------
Snowfall (with % of seasonal average)

2010-2011 - 60.70" (168%)
2011-2012 - 49.00" (136%)
2012-2013 - 25.10" (70%)
2013-2014 - 9.05" (25%)
2014-2015 - 2.90" (8%)
2015-2016 - 54.45" (151%)
2016-2017 - 63.00" (175%)
2017-2018 - 18.10" (50%)
2018-2019 - 52.30" (145%)
2019-2020 - 37.00" (103%)
2020-2021 - 19.00" (53%)
 
2021 Thunderstorms (7)
05/14, 06/22, 06/24, 07/27, 07/29
07/31, 08/01, 
 
Biggest Snowstorm - 18.4" (Jan 3-4 2017 - 26 hours)
Top 5 Daily Snows: 12.40" (01/03/2017), 8.20" (11/23/2010), 7.50" (12/13/2015), 6.60" (02/07/2017), 6.20" (03/10/2019)
Honorable Mention: 6.00" (03/20/2012), 6.00" (02/28/2012), 6.00" (01/16/2020), 5.70" (12/14/2016), 5.50" (01/18/2012)
Max Depths: 21.00" (01/07/2017), 18.00" (12/24/2015), 13.00" (01/16/2020), 11.00" (11/23/2010), 9.50" (02/27/2019), 9.00" (02/28/2012)
 
T'storm Days: 10 (2020), 14 (2019), 16 (2018), 12 (2017), 13 (2016), 20 (2015), 21 (2014), 16 (2013), 2 (2012), 12 (2011)
1980-2015 Avg = 12
Severe T'storms: 6 (08/05/2020), (08/10/2019), (08/08/2017), (07/24/2017), (01/19/2016), (08/05/2012) 
"Almost" Severe: 2 (08/10/2017), (05/04/2016)
Vicinity Severe T'storms (close enough to hear, with official severe reports)
(06/26/2017), (08/05/2016), (07/09/2015), (07/05/2015), (06/09/2015), (08/05/2014), (08/04/2014), (08/22/2013), (08/12/2013), (09/12/2011), (09/04/2011)

 

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11 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

Yeah, it's honestly gotten pretty annoying.

I don't get why Phil says it's been humid in D.C. July 3rd only topped out at a 61 degree dewpoint. I mean seriously? It gets worse than that in Finland.

Also the 12z EPS shows humidity departures reduced by 40% compared to the 00z run.

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26 minutes ago, TacomaWaWx said:

Love it how the 2 people trying to downplay how warm it’s been this summer live thousands of miles away and aren’t actually even experiencing it. 

Stats don't care where you live or if you experience them. They are what they are.

I'm not downplaying anything. Andrew made a false claim that I corrected - and there was a lot of speculation in June that this summer was destined to be like 2015 or worse. That has not played out so far in most locations where posters here live.

Not sure why there's so much hesitancy to acknowledge that.

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10 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

😀

That is a new way to troll... don't mention any location or method of calculation. 

SeaTac, 850mb departure averaged over the next 15 days.

How is that trolling? It’s legitimately good news.

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4 minutes ago, Front Ranger said:

Stats don't care where you live or if you experience them. They are what they are.

I'm not downplaying anything. Andrew made a false claim that I corrected - and there was a lot of speculation in June that this summer was destined to be like 2015 or worse. That has not played out so far in most locations where posters here live.

Narratives and feelings > math.

Basically sums it up.

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10 minutes ago, Front Ranger said:

No one is disputing it's been a very warm spring/summer for the PNW and the West overall.

However, unlike 2015 the western lowland have been spared the worst of it.

JJA15TDeptWRCC-NW.png.4f1328f6d105f59ca15fd347203bb417.png

You say “nobody’s been disputing it’s been a warm spring/summer” but have done almost nothing but that recently 😂. The maps for the first half of this summer don’t look much different than 2015 this summer it’s been warm. 

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Monthly rainfall-0.00”

Warm season rainfall-5.26”

+80s-27

+85s-9

+90s-3

+100s-2

Highest temp-106

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9 minutes ago, James Jones said:

I don't get why Phil says it's been humid in D.C. July 3rd only topped out at a 61 degree dewpoint. I mean seriously? It gets worse than that in Finland.

Also the 12z EPS shows humidity departures reduced by 40% compared to the 00z run.

That was an amazing weekend. Second best 4th of July weather I’ve experienced in my lifetime (2014 was #1).

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Just now, TacomaWaWx said:

You say “nobody’s been disputing it’s been a warm spring/summer” but have done almost nothing but that recently 😂. The maps for the first half of this summer don’t look much different than this summers it’s been warm. 

This is simply not true. I have repeatedly said it's been a warm spring and summer.

Pointing out that it hasn't been as warm as many expected this month, and statistically has not been 2015-level hot for the first half of summer on the westside overall, doesn't negate that. We're not talking mutually exclusive things here.

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Just to be clear, my commentary is solely westside centric, particularly the Seattle area which I’m more familiar with and have family to talk to there.

Cannot compare 2021 to 2015 in the Puget Sound region. Completely different animals.

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Just now, Phil said:

Just to be clear, my commentary is solely westside centric, particularly the Seattle area which I’m more familiar with and have family to talk to there.

Cannot compare 2021 to 2015 in the Puget Sound region. Completely different animals.

That is true for the Seattle area. 

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Monthly rainfall-0.00”

Warm season rainfall-5.26”

+80s-27

+85s-9

+90s-3

+100s-2

Highest temp-106

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10 minutes ago, James Jones said:

I don't get why Phil says it's been humid in D.C. July 3rd only topped out at a 61 degree dewpoint. I mean seriously? It gets worse than that in Finland.

Also the 12z EPS shows humidity departures reduced by 40% compared to the 00z run.

Been an incredibly mild and pleasant summer in D.C. +0.3 in June and -0.6 anomaly in July so far. Max of 95 this year, on one whole day.

 Absolutely nothing to complain about there and the conditions have been completely tolerable and pleasant to deal with for anyone with the mental fortitude beyond that of a 3 year old. 

I'm curious what Phil's thoughts are on Salem and Spokane's numbers. I know he's never been within about 300 miles of either and likely couldn't locate them on a map, but I believe he at least has some access to their weather data.

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4 minutes ago, Front Ranger said:

 

This is simply not true. I have repeatedly said it's been a warm spring and summer.

Pointing out that it hasn't been as warm as many expected this month, and statistically has not been 2015-level hot for the first half of summer on the westside overall, doesn't negate that. We're not talking mutually exclusive things here.

There actually has been a stark difference between the anomaly west of the cascades compared to east.

At least in other summers when I'm having 90's for days on end, PDX is doing the same but hasn't been the picture so far.

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Weather Data for Klamath Falls, OR
-------------------------------------------------------------------
Snowfall (with % of seasonal average)

2010-2011 - 60.70" (168%)
2011-2012 - 49.00" (136%)
2012-2013 - 25.10" (70%)
2013-2014 - 9.05" (25%)
2014-2015 - 2.90" (8%)
2015-2016 - 54.45" (151%)
2016-2017 - 63.00" (175%)
2017-2018 - 18.10" (50%)
2018-2019 - 52.30" (145%)
2019-2020 - 37.00" (103%)
2020-2021 - 19.00" (53%)
 
2021 Thunderstorms (7)
05/14, 06/22, 06/24, 07/27, 07/29
07/31, 08/01, 
 
Biggest Snowstorm - 18.4" (Jan 3-4 2017 - 26 hours)
Top 5 Daily Snows: 12.40" (01/03/2017), 8.20" (11/23/2010), 7.50" (12/13/2015), 6.60" (02/07/2017), 6.20" (03/10/2019)
Honorable Mention: 6.00" (03/20/2012), 6.00" (02/28/2012), 6.00" (01/16/2020), 5.70" (12/14/2016), 5.50" (01/18/2012)
Max Depths: 21.00" (01/07/2017), 18.00" (12/24/2015), 13.00" (01/16/2020), 11.00" (11/23/2010), 9.50" (02/27/2019), 9.00" (02/28/2012)
 
T'storm Days: 10 (2020), 14 (2019), 16 (2018), 12 (2017), 13 (2016), 20 (2015), 21 (2014), 16 (2013), 2 (2012), 12 (2011)
1980-2015 Avg = 12
Severe T'storms: 6 (08/05/2020), (08/10/2019), (08/08/2017), (07/24/2017), (01/19/2016), (08/05/2012) 
"Almost" Severe: 2 (08/10/2017), (05/04/2016)
Vicinity Severe T'storms (close enough to hear, with official severe reports)
(06/26/2017), (08/05/2016), (07/09/2015), (07/05/2015), (06/09/2015), (08/05/2014), (08/04/2014), (08/22/2013), (08/12/2013), (09/12/2011), (09/04/2011)

 

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FWIW I’d always expected the Intermountain West, Southwest, and areas east of the Cascades to torch this summer. Don’t think that is surprising given the z-cell regime we’re in. Posted about it dozens of times over the spring.

Minus that fluky June heatwave, it’s basically followed that script. Westside sanctuary, east side furnace (w/ respect to average).

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41 minutes ago, Timmy_Supercell said:

I tied 2 this month but technically you have to be +1 over the previous record to break it. Right now a lot of them are 100 or 99. I've been within close range of those a few days.

Before 2021 my last 100+ was in 2013, so KLMT does not see a lot of them. 3 in a row happened in late June. 

We had not reached 90F or warmer in the last 3 summers. We currently have 5 days at or above 90F this summer with a bunch of 89's as well. Summer of 1988 had 12 days at or above 90F which is mind blowing. 

Edit: Saw Phil's post above and was going to mention that he did call for the Southwest 4CH to expand greatly this summer which my area is definitely feeling. 

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13 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

Been an incredibly mild and pleasant summer in D.C. +0.3 in June and -0.6 anomaly in July so far. Max of 95 this year, on one whole day.

 Absolutely nothing to complain about there and the conditions have been completely tolerable and pleasant to deal with for anyone with the mental fortitude beyond that of a 3 year old. 

I'm curious what Phil's thoughts are on Salem and Spokane's numbers. I know he's never been within about 300 miles of either and likely couldn't locate them on a map, but I believe he at least has some access to their weather data.

I’ve been to Chelan and Leavenworth in the summer. It’s nice.

And yes, an “average” summer in DC is not enjoyable at all. Afternoon heat indices between 95-105 is the best you can hope for, really. Every now and then we’ll get a 2-3 day reprieve.

It was 81 degrees at 730AM back home today.

 

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24 minutes ago, MossMan said:

When is it supposed to start raining today? 

According to the ECMWF... the rain ends for the I-5 corridor around 9 a.m. this morning.    So its over now.   Hope you did not float away.   Picked up .01 here yesterday and 0.00 today.   

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2 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

According to the ECMWF... the rain ends for the I-5 corridor around 9 a.m. this morning.    So its over now.   Hope you did not float away.   Picked up .01 here yesterday and 0.00 today.   

There’s some echoes down around Olympia showing up on radar but not sure if anys reaching the ground. Suns actually partly out now and it’s up to 69 degrees. 

Monthly rainfall-0.00”

Warm season rainfall-5.26”

+80s-27

+85s-9

+90s-3

+100s-2

Highest temp-106

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1 hour ago, Phil said:

Perception ≠ reality, necessarily.

Outside those 4 days of atrociousness, it has been a tame summer west of the terrain.

No Phil, it hasn't. Sure, SEA is probably more tame but it's still quite warm and the rest of the region is clearly warmer especially in the WV, east of the cascades and western Canada. 

But judging from your previous post about how you just focused  on SEA, I have a feeling you are truly trolling. Forget the 2015 talk, it was a clearly different summer with a different setup. But it doesn't negate the fact that this summer so far have been warmer regionally.

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6 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

According to the ECMWF... the rain ends for the I-5 corridor around 9 a.m. this morning.    So its over now.   Hope you did not float away.   Picked up .01 here yesterday and 0.00 today.   

Yesterday’s light drizzle that amounted to 0.00” here was apparently the highlight of the storm! Getting brighter out now. 

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1 minute ago, MossMan said:

Yesterday’s light drizzle that amounted to 0.00” was apparently the highlight of the storm! Getting brighter out now. 

There’s breaks in the clouds. Don’t think it’ll be totally overcast today and we’ve already hit our max high temp for yesterday down here. 

912C6791-9115-46E4-8A35-214D4FB5330B.jpeg

Monthly rainfall-0.00”

Warm season rainfall-5.26”

+80s-27

+85s-9

+90s-3

+100s-2

Highest temp-106

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1 hour ago, sand dune said:

Joe Bastardi was downplaying the NW heat. In his eyes, the coastlines were cool and the interior was sweltering. He also pointed out that less than 10% of the NW population lives in the interior region. So it really doesn't matter. Sorry to all the tumbleweeds in Spokane, Yakima, Pendleton, Tri-Cities, and everywhere else.🌵☀🏜

Well the bigger story here East of the Cascades is the drought.  Not as much in my location, but most of the area is under a pretty serious drought.  Since the heatwave, temps have been pretty warm, but not unusually warm.  Having almost no Spring precip going into Summer, which is always pretty dry anyway, really set things up for a bad fire year.  The heatwave didn't help of course.

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2 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

According to the ECMWF... the rain ends for the I-5 corridor around 9 a.m. this morning.    So its over now.   Hope you did not float away.   Picked up .01 here yesterday and 0.00 today.   

Completely dry month looking pretty likely now for every major I-5 station, except ironically the firepit of EUG. 

Even UIL stands a chance of finishing the month with just 0.04" after today. That would be their 2nd driest July on record, after 2013's 0.01". 

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33 minutes ago, Phil said:

I’ve been to Chelan and Leavenworth in the summer. It’s nice.

And yes, an “average” summer in DC is not enjoyable at all. Afternoon heat indices between 95-105 is the best you can hope for, really. Every now and then we’ll get a 2-3 day reprieve.

It was 81 degrees at 730AM back home today.

 

The dryness here is a curse and a blessing.  Lower humidity levels make things so much more comfortable and does allow for nice cooling at night.  But that also means wildfires can really explode when they happen. 

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