PNW October 2021, Pumpkin Spice Edition

[Chewbacca Defense]

2 hours ago, hawkstwelve said:

12z Euro shows a couple different wind events. One Sunday night and another Tuesday night. 

Regardless of how things shake out exactly, next week looks like the most interesting windstorm potential that we've had in a while.

I wonder what the landing thresholds are for the dash8-Q400.  I've seen some crazy videos on youtube, and once when I flew into Tallahassee I could see the runway from my seat on final approach....I was in the 7th row of a Beech 1900.  Maybe I'll get the same ride Sunday night!

[Gradient Keeper]

2 hours ago, iFred said:

With my parents living in Ocean Shores now, these events suddenly have a bit more meaning.

My Aunt & Uncle live there near Duck Lake off Chenois Ave. I love it there. Deer, Bears, and Mountain Lions everywhere.

00z ECMWF in 4 hours 45 minutes

[SilverFallsAndrew]

50/42 Today. Chilly. 

[The Blob]

It's been chilly here too, the 5 min have 59/48 for today

[Kayla]

1 hour ago, Chewbacca Defense said:

I wonder what the landing thresholds are for the dash8-Q400.  I've seen some crazy videos on youtube, and once when I flew into Tallahassee I could see the runway from my seat on final approach....I was in the 7th row of a Beech 1900.  Maybe I'll get the same ride Sunday night!

Dash8-Q400 has a crosswind component of around 35kts I believe which is pretty decent.
 

BLI is 34/16 so you’ll just likely be moving REAL slow on final and watching cars on the ground past you by rather than looking down the runway from your window seat.

[Phil]

3 hours ago, Timmy_Supercell said:

I especially like 63 degree rain. During the Dec 2007 coastal gale there was a day like that in Hillsboro.

Tropical! I stood outside in the rain without a jacket on and was wonderful. lol

You ready to experience 83 degree rain in KY?

[TT-SEA]

1 minute ago, Phil said:

You ready to experience 83 degree rain in KY?

I grew up experiencing 83 degree rain every summer... usually accompanied by thunder and pretty fun.

[Timmy Supercell]

19 minutes ago, Phil said:

You ready to experience 83 degree rain in KY?

It's probably not all day long and I have experienced rain in the 70's before. Never without a good rumbler! 

[Timmy Supercell]

51/37. First 5000 ft snow of the season! 

Euro still shows an inch at my place Wednesday morning. 

[Phil]

21 minutes ago, Timmy_Supercell said:

It's probably not all day long and I have experienced rain in the 70's before. Never without a good rumbler! 

Tropical systems can be steam baths. Even if you’re warm sectored in the ET transition you can get several hours of 80+ degree rain since there’ll be some BL mixing.

And unlike the PNW, you have true warm rain processes that will dump a LOT of water in a short amount of time. MD has the world record for most rainfall in 1 minute (1.26” IIRC).

[snow drift]

46 minutes ago, Phil said:

You ready to experience 83 degree rain in KY?

Georgia is like that. You keep thinking it will cool off, and it never does.

[Timmy Supercell]

8 minutes ago, Phil said:

Tropical systems can be steam baths. Even if you’re warm sectored in the ET transition you can get several hours of 80+ degree rain since there’ll be some BL mixing.

And unlike the PNW, you have true warm rain processes that will dump a LOT of water in a short amount of time. MD has the world record for most rainfall in 1 minute (1.26” IIRC).

There was one t'storm that happened in Aug 2020 that dumped about 1/3rd of this last water year's rainfall in one hour, it can happen anywhere with the right setup. Of course it just happens more often east of us. 

One of the reasons this year for convection sucked where I live; I actually use flooding underpasses in downtown as a gauge for these seasons. It didn't happen once this summer. 

[Chewbacca Defense]

6 minutes ago, Kayla said:

Dash8-Q400 has a crosswind component of around 35kts I believe which is pretty decent.
 

BLI is 34/16 so you’ll just likely be moving REAL slow on final and watching cars on the ground past you by rather than looking down the runway from your window seat.

For sure, that would be entertaining to see.  I'm guessing the full flaps approach speed has to be around 120-130 kts, so depending on the wind speed our ground speed would probably get pretty close to freeway speed.  And yeah, 35kts is pretty impressive, but I'm sure a storm like this is just another day at the office for the pilots....an exciting day, but something they have to be pretty used to to fly in the PNW.

 

Surprisingly, I've never had a rough weather flight into or out of BLI, or SEA for that matter. 

[Phil]

4 minutes ago, Timmy_Supercell said:

There was one t'storm that happened in Aug 2020 that dumped about 1/3rd of this last water year's rainfall in one hour, it can happen anywhere with the right setup. Of course it just happens more often east of us. 

One of the reasons this year for convection sucked where I live; I actually use flooding underpasses in downtown as a gauge for these seasons. It didn't happen once this summer. 

I’m skeptical warm rain processes can exist out there in OR. The high freezing levels and inordinate amount of BL moisture involved requires a true tropical airmass, which don’t exist up there.

Imagine rainfall rates so heavy that you have several inch deep, rapidly flowing water on hilltops within a few minutes, and gutters maxed out and gushing after just 20 seconds.

Warm rain rates are next level insane. Even the most severe wet microbursts in thunderstorms can’t compete. And those can dump a lot of rain too.

[Timmy Supercell]

3 minutes ago, Phil said:

I’m skeptical warm rain processes can exist out there in OR. The high freezing levels and inordinate amount of BL moisture involved requires a true tropical airmass, which don’t exist up there.

Imagine rainfall rates so heavy that you have several inch deep, rapidly flowing water on hilltops within a few minutes, and gutters maxed out and gushing after just 20 seconds.

Warm rain rates are next level insane. Even the most severe wet microbursts in thunderstorms can’t compete. And those can dump a lot of rain too.

Yes, not actual airmasses like that. But the most concentrated rains can come from our most short lived events especially east of the cascades. It takes a really solid AR in December for rain in the winter to be legit 'heavy' in Klamath Falls.

[Phil]

8 minutes ago, Timmy_Supercell said:

Yes, not actual airmasses like that. But the most concentrated rains can come from our most short lived events especially east of the cascades. It takes a really solid AR in December for rain in the winter to be legit 'heavy' in Klamath Falls.

Btw, I was wrong it’s 1.23”, not 1.26”. In other words, an approximately 74”/hr rainfall rate. Yikes.

That’d be 740”/hr if it were snow.  

https://www.wunderground.com/blog/weatherhistorian/what-is-the-most-rain-to-ever-fall-in-one-minute-or-one-hour.html

[Cloud]

12 minutes ago, hawkstwelve said:

Finally got my weewx server and website fixed! I think Ambient might have updated their reporting protocol or something as my weewx data cut off on the 10th and it's been a pain in the a** to get it working again. Ended up having to change to a weather underground protocol, intercepting that data, and feeding it to my weewx server/website. It's now updating like before, thank God. That was ridiculous. 

Now to try and figure out how to backfill the missing data into the DB so my monthly and yearly stats aren't all messed up. Although might just chalk that up as a W tonight and tackle the DB stuff tomorrow. I have a really bad cold (COVID negative thankfully) and my head feels like it's about to explode. Don't feel like messing with SQL tonight.

Oh man… that’s great to hear with your station, definitely the time of year to get it functional. And feel better soon!! I’m on the same boat as you, been battling a really bad cold (Covid results negative) as well and my head has been pounding/feels like exploding. Definitely going to get flu shot once I feel better. 

[Requiem]

28 minutes ago, Cloud said:

Oh man… that’s great to hear with your station, definitely the time of year to get it functional. And feel better soon!! I’m on the same boat as you, been battling a really bad cold (Covid results negative) as well and my head has been pounding/feels like exploding. Definitely going to get flu shot once I feel better. 

That makes three of us-- gonna get tested if this keeps up. Still, grateful to have kept up some semblance of health.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Just 58F today. Springfield's first sub-60F high and we are currently at our low of 48F. Nice, cooler than normal day with some clouds. Beautiful fall weather here in the south Willamette Valley.

[Gradient Keeper]

6 minutes ago, iFred said:

Wow, my parents are out by North Bay park. Maybe we need to have a Wx forum meetup out there.

That's at the end of Chenois on Albatross. Wow close. Yeah, maybe we do.

00z ECMWF in 1 hour 41 minutes

[Brian_in_Leavenworth]

11 hours ago, AlTahoe said:

Nice. Upper Kingsbury. 

Exactly.  

[Requiem]

GFS refuses to show anything organized for that potential wind event period.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

25 minutes ago, DJ Droppin said:

That's at the end of Chenois on Albatross. Wow close. Yeah, maybe we do.

00z ECMWF in 1 hour 41 minutes

We should all meetup somewhere like the north Oregon Coast and have a bonfire with an extravagant feast.

[Gradient Keeper]

7 minutes ago, Requiem said:

GFS refuses to show anything organized for that potential wind event period.

Hopefully the GEM and EURO don't blink. I say hopefully because I happen to find high winds exciting.

[Meatyorologist]

5 minutes ago, iFred said:

Taken from https://twitter.com/pnwmiketrof/status/1450306788260126724 but posting the image to save for posterity.

DISCLAIMER - THIS IS ONE ENSEMBLE MEMBER OUT OF 51 MEMBERS AND FOR THE MODELS TO PLAY OUT LIKE THIS IS LIKE PLANNING YOUR RETIREMENT AROUND POWERBALL

 

holy f******* s***

[Gradient Keeper]

00z GFS - 10 Day GIF: 500mb Height Anomaly. 10 Day Rainfall Totals. 6" for PDX!

[snow_wizard]

Looks like the cloud cover is slowly eroding from the SW.  Can't wait for it to get clear here and plunge.

The fall color I saw around the area today was amazing.  The non native trees are off the charts and even the cottonwoods are showing signs they may really turn good this year.

[Cloud]

0z is crazy wet for the next 10 days. 4-5” for the Puget sound and 6” for PDX. 🌧 

[snow_wizard]

7 minutes ago, iFred said:

Taken from https://twitter.com/pnwmiketrof/status/1450306788260126724 but posting the image to save for posterity.

DISCLAIMER - THIS IS ONE ENSEMBLE MEMBER OUT OF 51 MEMBERS AND FOR THE MODELS TO PLAY OUT LIKE THIS IS LIKE PLANNING YOUR RETIREMENT AROUND POWERBALL

 

People need to notice that disclaimer.  If this were to verify it would be devastating.  I have no desire to see that.

[Requiem]

11 minutes ago, DJ Droppin said:

Hopefully the GEM and EURO don't blink. I say hopefully because I happen to find high winds exciting.

GEM has stayed consistent if not a bit closer with a powerful low.

[snow_wizard]

Just now, Cloud said:

0z is crazy wet for the next 10 days. 4-5” for the Puget sound and 6” for PDX. 🌧 

There is one really impressive baroclinic band being shown in particular.  Incredibly dynamic October in the works!

[Chewbacca Defense]

1 hour ago, hawkstwelve said:

Finally got my weewx server and website fixed! I think Ambient might have updated their reporting protocol or something as my weewx data cut off on the 10th and it's been a pain in the a** to get it working again. Ended up having to change to a weather underground protocol, intercepting that data, and feeding it to my weewx server/website. It's now updating like before, thank God. That was ridiculous. 

Now to try and figure out how to backfill the missing data into the DB so my monthly and yearly stats aren't all messed up. Although might just chalk that up as a W tonight and tackle the DB stuff tomorrow. I have a really bad cold (COVID negative thankfully) and my head feels like it's about to explode. Don't feel like messing with SQL tonight.

I'm still wrestling with my set up.  I got to the point of MQTT working, put it aside for a week and when I picked it back up, MQTT wasn't working anymore....learning my new job took over and I haven't been able to get back to it.  Also got busy trying to set up a R-Pi for HAM radio....trying to start 2 hobbies at once is probably not the best idea.  I'll probably pick the weewx back up again this winter.  I am at least capturing an archive of my weather data, so hopefully I can load it in once everything else is up and running.

 

Glad to hear you got your set up sorted out!

[Cloud]

3 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

People need to notice that disclaimer.  If this were to verify it would be devastating.  I have no desire to see that.

Definitely and I have no desire for it to happen as well. But why does it feel like the deck is stack for something historic to happen this fall/winter? Seems like we are due for a historic windstorm sometimes this fall.

[Geos]

13 minutes ago, iFred said:

Taken from https://twitter.com/pnwmiketrof/status/1450306788260126724 but posting the image to save for posterity.

DISCLAIMER - THIS IS ONE ENSEMBLE MEMBER OUT OF 51 MEMBERS AND FOR THE MODELS TO PLAY OUT LIKE THIS IS LIKE PLANNING YOUR RETIREMENT AROUND POWERBALL

 

Holy cow...!

The most dangerous path is for a strong low to head towards Forks/Cape Flattery area isn't it? - For the Puget Sound region.

[Meatyorologist]

1 minute ago, Cloud said:

Definitely and I have no desire for it to happen as well. But why does it feel like the deck is stack for something historic to happen this fall/winter? Seems like we are due for a historic windstorm sometimes this fall.

Historically boring is historic, too  

[Chewbacca Defense]

5 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

People need to notice that disclaimer.  If this were to verify it would be devastating.  I have no desire to see that.

So you're saying we can lock it in....

 

 

[snow_wizard]

54 minutes ago, TigerWoodsLibido said:

Just 58F today. Springfield's first sub-60F high and we are currently at our low of 48F. Nice, cooler than normal day with some clouds. Beautiful fall weather here in the south Willamette Valley.

You seriously didn't have a sub 60 high until today?  Amazing.

[Deweydog]

2 minutes ago, Cloud said:

Definitely and I have no desire for it to happen as well. But why does it feel like the deck is stack for something historic to happen this fall/winter? Seems like we are due for a historic windstorm sometimes this fall.

I think in any given winter the deck is always stacked against us for something historic. 

[snow_wizard]

3 minutes ago, Cloud said:

Definitely and I have no desire for it to happen as well. But why does it feel like the deck is stack for something historic to happen this fall/winter? Seems like we are due for a historic windstorm sometimes this fall.

We're more due for a cold / snowy January.  No doubt we have a window of opportunity for a big wind though.

[Cloud]

Just now, Deweydog said:

I think in any given winter the deck is always stacked against us for something historic. 

Quite true!