PNW October 2021, Pumpkin Spice Edition

[snow_wizard]

2 minutes ago, Chewbacca Defense said:

So you're saying we can lock it in....

 

 

I'm just saying people need to notice that is one ensemble member out of 51 showing that.  It's not a model run.

[Gradient Keeper]

2 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

I think in any given winter the deck is always stacked against us for something historic. 

True, except for this year. Hint: Go buy a snowmobile.

[snow_wizard]

2 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

I think in any given winter the deck is always stacked against us for something historic. 

On the other hand historic events have been a dime a dozen globally this year.  Amplification causes that.

[Cloud]

1 minute ago, snow_wizard said:

On the other hand historic events have been a dime a dozen globally this year.  Amplification causes that.

I’d say one extreme deserves another. The heatwave back in June deserves something to that effect this winter. Cold and snowy. 

[Deweydog]

3 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

On the other hand historic events have been a dime a dozen globally this year.  Amplification causes that.

How many more than average!??????

[Cloud]

Tomorrow is going to be last full day of “nice” — would take advantage of that if we can. 

[Cloud]

7 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

I'm just saying people need to notice that is one ensemble member out of 51 showing that.  It's not a model run.

I would hope someone/everyone saw that considering it was plastered in red. If this verifies whoever want to pick that member should go buy the lottery.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Fall color is peaking up here this week. Just gorgeous. 

[TigerWoodsLibido]

24 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

You seriously didn't have a sub 60 high until today?  Amazing.

Correct. The airport has had 2 but the city proper and the rest of the S valley stayed at 60F or warmer. And these warmer and drier conditions keep creeping further and further north every year...

[GHweatherChris]

33 minutes ago, Cloud said:

Definitely and I have no desire for it to happen as well. But why does it feel like the deck is stack for something historic to happen this fall/winter? Seems like we are due for a historic windstorm sometimes this fall.

Late June 2021 would agree that something historic could happen again this year!

[GHweatherChris]

7 minutes ago, iFred said:

I'm sorry and I'll never post an ensemble run again. It was wreckless of me to do so. 

I wish others would heed this advice

[Requiem]

Here's the UKMET solution for that potential system:

 

 

[Requiem]

Though what the UKMET spits out for actual wind gusts inland isn't that impressive, it certainly is interesting that there's such a disparity between the weak GFS and the more powerful (and consequently more offshore) storm solutions painted by nearly every other model. Will be interesting to see this active pattern evolve as time goes on. All eyes on the EURO!

[SouthHillFrosty]

[RentonHill]

20 minutes ago, SouthHillFrosty said:

Alright maybe you weren’t ready for the subscription. Ban him @iFred

[luminen]

19 minutes ago, SouthHillFrosty said:

Looking good... 

[MossMan]

Mid October moonlight. 
And fall color outside my front door. 
55/43 on the day. 

[Geos]

5 minutes ago, RentonHillTC said:

Alright maybe you weren’t ready for the subscription. Ban him @iFred

I never knew a 1104 hour snowfall map even existed! For any type of weather map for that matter.

[Gradient Keeper]

00z ECMWF Day 6 (Past 4 runs) Trough axis trending deeper and closer to the coast. Uh oh

[Gradient Keeper]

C'mon and slingshot that wave north right off the coast! C'MON!!!!

[Gradient Keeper]

Nope. Cali gets the fun.

[Gradient Keeper]

[Requiem]

7 minutes ago, DJ Droppin said:

Models obviously still all over the place but dang the GFS-type runs are a bummer. Real hard to get windstorms lately. 

[Requiem]

At face value EURO at the very least looks quite active and wet.

[Gradient Keeper]

00z ECMWF - 10 Day GIF: 500mb Height Anomaly. 10 Day Rainfall totals. Very similar to the GFS with big time rains. Check out the totals on the central and southern Oregon Coast/Range 12-21" WOW!

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Night shift?

[Cloud]

0z Models comparison between Euro and GFS. Pretty remarkable totals and agreement. Euro is wetter overall at the OR/CA border

[Gradient Keeper]

6 minutes ago, TigerWoodsLibido said:

Night shift?

Too sleepy. We may need to do so by Thursday night or Friday though.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Goddam!!

[smerfylicious]

10 minutes ago, TigerWoodsLibido said:

Goddam!!

Poor Lake Oswego Joshua, he's gonna have a really hard time with this. That's some nasty drought weather heading his way.

[Meatyorologist]

1 hour ago, TigerWoodsLibido said:

Goddam!!

 Dang!

[Meatyorologist]

[Cloud]

Couldn’t sleep… so checking out the 6z. Why are there random holes all over the map? Nobody knows.  
 

Goofus. 

[Phil]

Dr. Roundy’s experimental analog pool goes bonkers with NPAC/Alaska ridging towards Thanksgiving.

Verbatim that’d be a prelude to some serious cold loading in Canada.

http://www.atmos.albany.edu/facstaff/roundy/waves/analogs/analogs.html

[Joshua Lake Oswego]

3 hours ago, smerfylicious said:

Poor Lake Oswego Joshua, he's gonna have a really hard time with this. That's some nasty drought weather heading his way.

Absolutely epic 00z runs. I am confident we are entering a wet stretch starting Thursday night. How wet? We’ll see. I wouldn’t be surprised if what actually falls is only 1/3rd of the 00z Euro/GFS forecast.

[TT-SEA]

1 hour ago, Cloud said:

Couldn’t sleep… so checking out the 6z. Why are there random holes all over the map? Nobody knows.  
 

Goofus. 

Moisture interacting with topography.  Just looking at WA... you can clearly see the rain shadow of the Olympics and Cacades... which are supposedly 'random' holes.  

[SilverFallsAndrew]

55 minutes ago, Joshua Lake Oswego said:

Absolutely epic 00z runs. I am confident we are entering a wet stretch starting Thursday night. How wet? We’ll see. I wouldn’t be surprised if what actually falls is only 1/3rd of the 00z Euro/GFS forecast.

I think it’s a good bet we see about 4” by the end of October, which would get us to average. See if we can pull off the rare wet September/October combo. 

[T-Town]

Got a shot of the setting moon this morning. The fancy new iPhone camera has its limits because the photo doesn’t do it justice. 

[Blizzard777]

Looking forward to the model runs today and action down the road! 
41*

[Phil]

7 hours ago, Requiem said:

Models obviously still all over the place but dang the GFS-type runs are a bummer. Real hard to get windstorms lately. 

Is that true, though?

Plotting # of days/yr with gusts at/above 40mph @ PDX since those records began yields an interesting upward trend.

(Note: 40mph = 34.759kts).