snow_wizard Posted October 19, 2021 Report Share Posted October 19, 2021 2 minutes ago, Chewbacca Defense said: So you're saying we can lock it in.... I'm just saying people need to notice that is one ensemble member out of 51 showing that. It's not a model run. 4 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted October 19, 2021 Report Share Posted October 19, 2021 2 minutes ago, Deweydog said: I think in any given winter the deck is always stacked against us for something historic. True, except for this year. Hint: Go buy a snowmobile. 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted October 19, 2021 Report Share Posted October 19, 2021 2 minutes ago, Deweydog said: I think in any given winter the deck is always stacked against us for something historic. On the other hand historic events have been a dime a dozen globally this year. Amplification causes that. Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cloud Posted October 19, 2021 Report Share Posted October 19, 2021 1 minute ago, snow_wizard said: On the other hand historic events have been a dime a dozen globally this year. Amplification causes that. I’d say one extreme deserves another. The heatwave back in June deserves something to that effect this winter. Cold and snowy. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted October 19, 2021 Report Share Posted October 19, 2021 3 minutes ago, snow_wizard said: On the other hand historic events have been a dime a dozen globally this year. Amplification causes that. How many more than average!?????? Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cloud Posted October 19, 2021 Report Share Posted October 19, 2021 Tomorrow is going to be last full day of “nice” — would take advantage of that if we can. 2 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cloud Posted October 19, 2021 Report Share Posted October 19, 2021 7 minutes ago, snow_wizard said: I'm just saying people need to notice that is one ensemble member out of 51 showing that. It's not a model run. I would hope someone/everyone saw that considering it was plastered in red. If this verifies whoever want to pick that member should go buy the lottery. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted October 19, 2021 Report Share Posted October 19, 2021 Fall color is peaking up here this week. Just gorgeous. 1 1 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TigerWoodsLibido Posted October 19, 2021 Report Share Posted October 19, 2021 24 minutes ago, snow_wizard said: You seriously didn't have a sub 60 high until today? Amazing. Correct. The airport has had 2 but the city proper and the rest of the S valley stayed at 60F or warmer. And these warmer and drier conditions keep creeping further and further north every year... 1 Quote Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats: Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024) Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024) Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024) Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024) Total snowfall: 0.0" Total ice: 2.25” Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9") Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F) Last White Christmas: 1990 Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0 Personal Stats: Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F) Last White Christmas: 2008 Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0" Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4 Venmo GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2 My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope 24 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GHweatherChris Posted October 19, 2021 Report Share Posted October 19, 2021 33 minutes ago, Cloud said: Definitely and I have no desire for it to happen as well. But why does it feel like the deck is stack for something historic to happen this fall/winter? Seems like we are due for a historic windstorm sometimes this fall. Late June 2021 would agree that something historic could happen again this year! 3 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GHweatherChris Posted October 19, 2021 Report Share Posted October 19, 2021 7 minutes ago, iFred said: I'm sorry and I'll never post an ensemble run again. It was wreckless of me to do so. I wish others would heed this advice 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Requiem Posted October 19, 2021 Report Share Posted October 19, 2021 Here's the UKMET solution for that potential system: 2 3 2 Quote "Let's mosey!" --Cloud Strife ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Top 5 Snow Events (post 2014): (1. January 10th, 2017: 18.5 in.(2. February 6th, 2014: 7.5 inches(3. February 20th, 2018: 5.0 inches(4. February 21st, 2018: 4.0 inches(5. December 14th, 2016: 3.5 inches Honourable Mentions: December 7th, 2018, February 9th, 2019. Total since joining the Weather Forums: 3" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Requiem Posted October 19, 2021 Report Share Posted October 19, 2021 Though what the UKMET spits out for actual wind gusts inland isn't that impressive, it certainly is interesting that there's such a disparity between the weak GFS and the more powerful (and consequently more offshore) storm solutions painted by nearly every other model. Will be interesting to see this active pattern evolve as time goes on. All eyes on the EURO! 4 Quote "Let's mosey!" --Cloud Strife ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Top 5 Snow Events (post 2014): (1. January 10th, 2017: 18.5 in.(2. February 6th, 2014: 7.5 inches(3. February 20th, 2018: 5.0 inches(4. February 21st, 2018: 4.0 inches(5. December 14th, 2016: 3.5 inches Honourable Mentions: December 7th, 2018, February 9th, 2019. Total since joining the Weather Forums: 3" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthHillFrosty Posted October 19, 2021 Report Share Posted October 19, 2021 2 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RentonHill Posted October 19, 2021 Report Share Posted October 19, 2021 20 minutes ago, SouthHillFrosty said: Alright maybe you weren’t ready for the subscription. Ban him @iFred 3 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
luminen Posted October 19, 2021 Report Share Posted October 19, 2021 19 minutes ago, SouthHillFrosty said: Looking good... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted October 19, 2021 Report Share Posted October 19, 2021 Mid October moonlight. And fall color outside my front door. 55/43 on the day. 6 1 Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted October 19, 2021 Report Share Posted October 19, 2021 5 minutes ago, RentonHillTC said: Alright maybe you weren’t ready for the subscription. Ban him @iFred I never knew a 1104 hour snowfall map even existed! For any type of weather map for that matter. 1 Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted October 19, 2021 Report Share Posted October 19, 2021 00z ECMWF Day 6 (Past 4 runs) Trough axis trending deeper and closer to the coast. Uh oh 1 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted October 19, 2021 Report Share Posted October 19, 2021 C'mon and slingshot that wave north right off the coast! C'MON!!!! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted October 19, 2021 Report Share Posted October 19, 2021 Nope. Cali gets the fun. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted October 19, 2021 Report Share Posted October 19, 2021 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Requiem Posted October 19, 2021 Report Share Posted October 19, 2021 7 minutes ago, DJ Droppin said: Models obviously still all over the place but dang the GFS-type runs are a bummer. Real hard to get windstorms lately. 1 1 1 Quote "Let's mosey!" --Cloud Strife ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Top 5 Snow Events (post 2014): (1. January 10th, 2017: 18.5 in.(2. February 6th, 2014: 7.5 inches(3. February 20th, 2018: 5.0 inches(4. February 21st, 2018: 4.0 inches(5. December 14th, 2016: 3.5 inches Honourable Mentions: December 7th, 2018, February 9th, 2019. Total since joining the Weather Forums: 3" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Requiem Posted October 19, 2021 Report Share Posted October 19, 2021 At face value EURO at the very least looks quite active and wet. 1 Quote "Let's mosey!" --Cloud Strife ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Top 5 Snow Events (post 2014): (1. January 10th, 2017: 18.5 in.(2. February 6th, 2014: 7.5 inches(3. February 20th, 2018: 5.0 inches(4. February 21st, 2018: 4.0 inches(5. December 14th, 2016: 3.5 inches Honourable Mentions: December 7th, 2018, February 9th, 2019. Total since joining the Weather Forums: 3" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted October 19, 2021 Report Share Posted October 19, 2021 00z ECMWF - 10 Day GIF: 500mb Height Anomaly. 10 Day Rainfall totals. Very similar to the GFS with big time rains. Check out the totals on the central and southern Oregon Coast/Range 12-21" WOW! 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TigerWoodsLibido Posted October 19, 2021 Report Share Posted October 19, 2021 Night shift? 1 1 Quote Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats: Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024) Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024) Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024) Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024) Total snowfall: 0.0" Total ice: 2.25” Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9") Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F) Last White Christmas: 1990 Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0 Personal Stats: Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F) Last White Christmas: 2008 Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0" Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4 Venmo GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2 My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope 24 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cloud Posted October 19, 2021 Report Share Posted October 19, 2021 0z Models comparison between Euro and GFS. Pretty remarkable totals and agreement. Euro is wetter overall at the OR/CA border 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted October 19, 2021 Report Share Posted October 19, 2021 6 minutes ago, TigerWoodsLibido said: Night shift? Too sleepy. We may need to do so by Thursday night or Friday though. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TigerWoodsLibido Posted October 19, 2021 Report Share Posted October 19, 2021 Goddam!! 1 3 1 Quote Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats: Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024) Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024) Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024) Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024) Total snowfall: 0.0" Total ice: 2.25” Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9") Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F) Last White Christmas: 1990 Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0 Personal Stats: Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F) Last White Christmas: 2008 Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0" Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4 Venmo GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2 My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope 24 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
smerfylicious Posted October 19, 2021 Report Share Posted October 19, 2021 10 minutes ago, TigerWoodsLibido said: Goddam!! Poor Lake Oswego Joshua, he's gonna have a really hard time with this. That's some nasty drought weather heading his way. 2 2 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meatyorologist Posted October 19, 2021 Report Share Posted October 19, 2021 1 hour ago, TigerWoodsLibido said: Goddam!! Dang! Quote Weather stats for MBY Snowfall: -Total snowfall since joining: 50.25" -2018-19: 21" -2019-20: 2.5" -2020-21: 13" -2021-22: 8.75" -2022-23: 5.75" -2023-24*: 0.25" -Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024 -Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021 -Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019 Temperatures: -Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021 -Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021 -Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meatyorologist Posted October 19, 2021 Report Share Posted October 19, 2021 1 Quote Weather stats for MBY Snowfall: -Total snowfall since joining: 50.25" -2018-19: 21" -2019-20: 2.5" -2020-21: 13" -2021-22: 8.75" -2022-23: 5.75" -2023-24*: 0.25" -Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024 -Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021 -Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019 Temperatures: -Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021 -Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021 -Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cloud Posted October 19, 2021 Report Share Posted October 19, 2021 Couldn’t sleep… so checking out the 6z. Why are there random holes all over the map? Nobody knows. Goofus. 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted October 19, 2021 Report Share Posted October 19, 2021 Dr. Roundy’s experimental analog pool goes bonkers with NPAC/Alaska ridging towards Thanksgiving. Verbatim that’d be a prelude to some serious cold loading in Canada. http://www.atmos.albany.edu/facstaff/roundy/waves/analogs/analogs.html 1 2 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Joshua Lake Oswego Posted October 19, 2021 Report Share Posted October 19, 2021 3 hours ago, smerfylicious said: Poor Lake Oswego Joshua, he's gonna have a really hard time with this. That's some nasty drought weather heading his way. Absolutely epic 00z runs. I am confident we are entering a wet stretch starting Thursday night. How wet? We’ll see. I wouldn’t be surprised if what actually falls is only 1/3rd of the 00z Euro/GFS forecast. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted October 19, 2021 Report Share Posted October 19, 2021 1 hour ago, Cloud said: Couldn’t sleep… so checking out the 6z. Why are there random holes all over the map? Nobody knows. Goofus. Moisture interacting with topography. Just looking at WA... you can clearly see the rain shadow of the Olympics and Cacades... which are supposedly 'random' holes. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted October 19, 2021 Report Share Posted October 19, 2021 55 minutes ago, Joshua Lake Oswego said: Absolutely epic 00z runs. I am confident we are entering a wet stretch starting Thursday night. How wet? We’ll see. I wouldn’t be surprised if what actually falls is only 1/3rd of the 00z Euro/GFS forecast. I think it’s a good bet we see about 4” by the end of October, which would get us to average. See if we can pull off the rare wet September/October combo. 1 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
T-Town Posted October 19, 2021 Report Share Posted October 19, 2021 Got a shot of the setting moon this morning. The fancy new iPhone camera has its limits because the photo doesn’t do it justice. 7 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard777 Posted October 19, 2021 Report Share Posted October 19, 2021 Looking forward to the model runs today and action down the road! 41* Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted October 19, 2021 Report Share Posted October 19, 2021 7 hours ago, Requiem said: Models obviously still all over the place but dang the GFS-type runs are a bummer. Real hard to get windstorms lately. Is that true, though? Plotting # of days/yr with gusts at/above 40mph @ PDX since those records began yields an interesting upward trend. (Note: 40mph = 34.759kts). Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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