snow_wizard Posted October 23, 2021 Report Share Posted October 23, 2021 53 minutes ago, SeanNyberg said: I keep my family and friends abreast on what the models are saying and the discussion on boards like this and this one seems different than other storms. I think because the 'bullet' is so big. I mean, it is clear that the thing is going to weaken, even in the strongest runs it weakens as it gets close to land, so I would not put any real money on this being a widespread blow out for Puget Sound. But we've had storms surprise us year after year. It could surprise us and slide north and die faster than forecasted, or it could continue to strengthen and maintain strength as it gets close to Olympic Peninsula. Sure, those two are not likely scenarios, but, they aren't impossible, and the consequence would be pretty terrible if it pushes farther east and maintains its basic size. That would change a breezy day for the interior into a catastrophic event. Again, not saying that is going to happen or is even likely, but it is also not impossible. Crazy to watch something like this. Never before in history. I love me some big weather events, but even I am hoping this thing brings a couple decent, non-damaging gusts, some sideways rain, maybe lightening strike, and some heavy rain to put us to sleep Sunday night. that sounds perfect! The storm is going to be extraordinary, but the wind field is going to be pretty limited and mostly offshore. The best bet for the Puget Sound Lowlands will be some fairly strong easterlies in the foothills. To the average Joe the media hoopla about this is going to end up being much ado about nothing. Such an amazing storm, but most people won't see much from it. 1 1 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted October 23, 2021 Report Share Posted October 23, 2021 4 minutes ago, snow_wizard said: Looks like the GFS goes for a major pattern change in week 2. Much blockier and an opportunity for cold nights. Great pattern to show off the remaining fall colors. The cottonwoods should be great by then. They are turning much better and earlier than normal here. Earlier? Looking at pics from October in past years... our cottonwoods are really slow to turn this year. In some years they have been almost bare by this point. Cottonwoods are sort of a boring fall color tree anyways compared to other trees around here. 1 Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GHweatherChris Posted October 23, 2021 Report Share Posted October 23, 2021 We have a banter thread. 1 2 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted October 23, 2021 Report Share Posted October 23, 2021 Meanwhile the GFS goes for a pretty chilly day tomorrow with some places struggling to top 50. Currently a cool 46 here. 1 1 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted October 23, 2021 Report Share Posted October 23, 2021 The GFS shows major blocking and a cold trough digging down the BC Coast late in the run. 1 2 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted October 23, 2021 Report Share Posted October 23, 2021 7 minutes ago, snow_wizard said: The GFS shows major blocking and a cold trough digging down the BC Coast late in the run. Extrapolaters!!! 1 2 1 1 Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Anti Marine Layer Posted October 23, 2021 Report Share Posted October 23, 2021 26 minutes ago, DJ Droppin said: 00z GFS: Halloween night - Dry, strong east winds. No more snow! 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SeanNyberg Posted October 23, 2021 Report Share Posted October 23, 2021 This is the most highly anticipated Euro run until tomorrow's highly anticipated Euro run. LOL! 1 1 Quote -------------------- Sean Nyberg IG: @SeanNyberg X: @SeanNyberg Facebook: Sean Nyberg Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted October 23, 2021 Report Share Posted October 23, 2021 Huskies got lucky. Showed up for one quarter and that was just barely enough. 3 Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meatyorologist Posted October 23, 2021 Report Share Posted October 23, 2021 From my eye, nothing about this storm spells danger for the inland NW. Mayyybe the coast, but even then, nothing outside climatology, save for the waves, which will be top-tier. These big storms blow up offshore; more often than not further out than modeled; and then curve up into VI. Like clockwork. There are like three to five of them every storm season, often more. This one just happens to possess a very deep central pressure. 1 1 Quote Weather stats for MBY Snowfall: -Total snowfall since joining: 50.25" -2018-19: 21" -2019-20: 2.5" -2020-21: 13" -2021-22: 8.75" -2022-23: 5.75" -2023-24*: 0.25" -Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024 -Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021 -Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019 Temperatures: -Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021 -Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021 -Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted October 23, 2021 Report Share Posted October 23, 2021 00z ECMWF Alert? Hmmm, Sunday's low is 200 miles further south than the previous run more in line to move perhaps into central, south central Vancouver Island. 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted October 23, 2021 Report Share Posted October 23, 2021 7 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said: From my eye, nothing about this storm spells danger for the inland NW. Mayyybe the coast, but even then, nothing outside climatology, save for the waves, which will be top-tier. These big storms blow up offshore; more often than not further out than modeled; and then curve up into VI. Like clockwork. There are like three to five of them every storm season, often more. This one just happens to possess a very deep central pressure. I would love to run out to the coast just to see the wave action! 2 Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted October 23, 2021 Report Share Posted October 23, 2021 Day 2 (Past 4 runs) If this trend continues much stronger winds may occur than previously thought. 1 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow drift Posted October 23, 2021 Report Share Posted October 23, 2021 16 minutes ago, TT-SEA said: Huskies got lucky. Showed up for one quarter and that was just barely enough. They'll probably lose their next four games. They can't run the ball or stop the run. They do have a shot at Wazzu though, because it's a rivalry game. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted October 23, 2021 Report Share Posted October 23, 2021 8 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said: From my eye, nothing about this storm spells danger for the inland NW. Mayyybe the coast, but even then, nothing outside climatology, save for the waves, which will be top-tier. These big storms blow up offshore; more often than not further out than modeled; and then curve up into VI. Like clockwork. There are like three to five of them every storm season, often more. This one just happens to possess a very deep central pressure. This is probably the deepest low I've ever seen in the position that is progged, but it's quite apparent it's going to have limited impact inland. I hate seeing the media hype this kind of thing when the vast majority of the population with see nothing more than a typical fall storm. 2 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted October 23, 2021 Report Share Posted October 23, 2021 .64” on the day. 1 Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cloud Posted October 23, 2021 Report Share Posted October 23, 2021 8 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said: From my eye, nothing about this storm spells danger for the inland NW. Mayyybe the coast, but even then, nothing outside climatology, save for the waves, which will be top-tier. These big storms blow up offshore; more often than not further out than modeled; and then curve up into VI. Like clockwork. There are like three to five of them every storm season, often more. This one just happens to possess a very deep central pressure. These deep central pressure storms also typically develop around the GoA and impact that region instead. This one just happens to be way further south. It's quite fascinating and one of these may end up hitting the region. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted October 23, 2021 Report Share Posted October 23, 2021 Anyone getting that vibe that this may get very real? 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted October 23, 2021 Report Share Posted October 23, 2021 WOW. IF this continues the next 4 runs 3 1 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawksfan2008 Posted October 23, 2021 Report Share Posted October 23, 2021 I don’t understand the doubt from many in here given the trends. Sure, the media hype is ridiculous but there is serious potential. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted October 23, 2021 Report Share Posted October 23, 2021 3 minutes ago, hawkstwelve said: 00z NAM had some pretty strong winds Sunday morning, especially for the coast and EPSL. Those are really the main two places that have the highest shot of strong winds, imo. The low is filling too quickly so that by the time it gets to a spot favorable for winds up the Sound the gradient has laxed and it'll probably just be some breezy winds. Ultimately I'm expecting a similar blow as yesterday here in MV, perhaps a bit stronger if things align right. Notable but nothing crazy. I think a pretty good blow is possible here if the low is a tad further south than expected when the storm bottoms out. If the low is straight west of us the Olympics really interfere with the east wind potential. I just don't see a south wind event with this one. 1 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthHillFrosty Posted October 23, 2021 Report Share Posted October 23, 2021 1 minute ago, DJ Droppin said: WOW. IF this continues the next 4 runs Yea….not liking it but not expecting anything over 50mph 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted October 23, 2021 Report Share Posted October 23, 2021 28 minutes ago, TT-SEA said: Huskies got lucky. Showed up for one quarter and that was just barely enough. BOom. 1 Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted October 23, 2021 Report Share Posted October 23, 2021 Keep the football talk in the banter thread. Don’t need that s hit here. 2 1 1 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted October 23, 2021 Report Share Posted October 23, 2021 Just now, SilverFallsAndrew said: Keep the football talk in the banter thread. Don’t need that s hit here. Go Chiefs, Bearcats! 6z GFS in 3 hours 15 minutes Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SeanNyberg Posted October 23, 2021 Report Share Posted October 23, 2021 There's a lot of time between now and Sunday morning. It'll be interesting to see if trends continue. Something is pushing these things farther east and south the last few runs. 2 Quote -------------------- Sean Nyberg IG: @SeanNyberg X: @SeanNyberg Facebook: Sean Nyberg Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted October 23, 2021 Report Share Posted October 23, 2021 Just now, Hawksfan2008 said: I don’t understand the doubt from many in here given the trends. Sure, the media hype is ridiculous but there is serious potential. I've seen these very strong lows in this situation before and they almost invariably bottom out too far off shore. This low is so exceptional that anything is possible I guess. As I mentioned before we had two like this in January 1880 that both tracked across southern WA. Normally a low of this strength has almost zero chance of tracking inland further south than Northern Vancouver Island. 1 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meatyorologist Posted October 23, 2021 Report Share Posted October 23, 2021 8 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said: Keep the football talk in the banter thread. Don’t need that s hit here. You heard it guys, no soccer! 1 1 Quote Weather stats for MBY Snowfall: -Total snowfall since joining: 50.25" -2018-19: 21" -2019-20: 2.5" -2020-21: 13" -2021-22: 8.75" -2022-23: 5.75" -2023-24*: 0.25" -Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024 -Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021 -Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019 Temperatures: -Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021 -Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021 -Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted October 23, 2021 Report Share Posted October 23, 2021 00z ICON (Past 4 runs) also shifting the low further southeast. 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted October 23, 2021 Report Share Posted October 23, 2021 Tomorrow's runs we must watch to see if the degradation stage is also delayed or nudged further east/southeast. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted October 23, 2021 Report Share Posted October 23, 2021 Already looking impressive! 2 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted October 23, 2021 Report Share Posted October 23, 2021 26 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said: Keep the football talk in the banter thread. Don’t need that s hit here. Quack 1 Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted October 23, 2021 Report Share Posted October 23, 2021 00z ECMWF - 10 Day GIF: 500mb Height Anomaly. 10 Day Rainfall totals. Dry Halloween. Setting up for retrogression? 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TacomaWaWx Posted October 23, 2021 Report Share Posted October 23, 2021 We’ve picked up 0.04” since midnight at home. Have had some light rain out here on and off on the island throughout the night. Quote Tacoma WA elevation 300’ Monthly rainfall-3.56” Warm season rainfall-11.14” Max temp-88 +80 highs-2 +85 highs-2 +90 highs-0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TacomaWaWx Posted October 23, 2021 Report Share Posted October 23, 2021 Lol watch this storm be the anti typhoon bust of 2016 and totally catch us off guard. Not counting on it. Looks like we had a low of 48 this morning. 1 1 Quote Tacoma WA elevation 300’ Monthly rainfall-3.56” Warm season rainfall-11.14” Max temp-88 +80 highs-2 +85 highs-2 +90 highs-0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawksfan2008 Posted October 23, 2021 Report Share Posted October 23, 2021 1 minute ago, TacomaWaWx said: Lol watch this storm be the anti typhoon bust of 2016 and totally catch us off guard. Not counting on it. Looks like we had a low of 48 this morning. Looking at 12z NAM and HRRR it’s not out of the question…both are within striking distance and don’t weaken the system as quickly. Especially the HRRR. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted October 23, 2021 Report Share Posted October 23, 2021 Looks like the last couple GFS have things really drying out and turning mild by the end of the month. Just about 5-6 more days of rain and then severe clear. 1 1 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted October 23, 2021 Report Share Posted October 23, 2021 2 minutes ago, Hawksfan2008 said: Looking at 12z NAM and HRRR it’s not out of the question…both are within striking distance and don’t weaken the system as quickly. Especially the HRRR. Here the 12Z NAM... slight shift east from 00Z run. 1 Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TacomaWaWx Posted October 23, 2021 Report Share Posted October 23, 2021 3 minutes ago, Hawksfan2008 said: Looking at 12z NAM and HRRR it’s not out of the question…both are within striking distance and don’t weaken the system as quickly. Especially the HRRR. There has been a shift southward that puts it at a higher risk of getting us but the odds are still it doesn’t amount to much. Just seems like either way it’ll be weakening too though…Sometimes forecasts bust so we will see. 2 Quote Tacoma WA elevation 300’ Monthly rainfall-3.56” Warm season rainfall-11.14” Max temp-88 +80 highs-2 +85 highs-2 +90 highs-0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawksfan2008 Posted October 23, 2021 Report Share Posted October 23, 2021 1 minute ago, TacomaWaWx said: There has been a shift southward that puts it at a higher risk of getting us but the odds are still it doesn’t amount to much. Just seems like either way it’ll be weakening too though…Sometimes forecasts bust so we will see. Agree. It’s a weird storm with a weird track that is not typical of big winds around here. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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