snow_wizard Posted November 29, 2021 Report Share Posted November 29, 2021 Definitely more amplification on this ECMWF run. That pesky cutoff finally helps us later on. 1 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GobBluth Posted November 29, 2021 Report Share Posted November 29, 2021 At the very least the nagging ridge over the west is gone. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TigerWoodsLibido Posted November 29, 2021 Report Share Posted November 29, 2021 2 minutes ago, Phil said: 00z Euro still ends up way too progressive. Not even close. I doubt we see an Arctic airmass impact this area for at least 5 more years. 1 2 3 Quote Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats: Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024) Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024) Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024) Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024) Total snowfall: 0.0" Total ice: 2.25” Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9") Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F) Last White Christmas: 1990 Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0 Personal Stats: Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F) Last White Christmas: 2008 Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0" Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4 Venmo GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2 My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope 24 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted November 29, 2021 Report Share Posted November 29, 2021 2 minutes ago, Phil said: 00z Euro still ends up way too progressive. Not even close. You're really reaching here. Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted November 29, 2021 Report Share Posted November 29, 2021 Just now, TigerWoodsLibido said: I doubt we see an Arctic airmass impact this area for at least 5 more years. For one thing I don't even agree with his post. Looks decent to me. Not Arctic, but one more step toward getting there. 2 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 29, 2021 Report Share Posted November 29, 2021 Call me crazy, but Day 6.5+ the EURO is much closer to going places perhaps a major cold blast. *Shrugs with one shoulder 6z GFS in 2 hours 48 minutes 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TigerWoodsLibido Posted November 29, 2021 Report Share Posted November 29, 2021 Just now, snow_wizard said: For one thing I don't even agree with his post. Looks decent to me. Not Arctic, but one more step toward getting there. We've gone 5 years without one. We could easily go another 5. Quote Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats: Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024) Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024) Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024) Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024) Total snowfall: 0.0" Total ice: 2.25” Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9") Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F) Last White Christmas: 1990 Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0 Personal Stats: Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F) Last White Christmas: 2008 Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0" Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4 Venmo GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2 My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope 24 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted November 29, 2021 Report Share Posted November 29, 2021 2 minutes ago, snow_wizard said: You're really reaching here. You looking at the same run I am? 1 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 29, 2021 Report Share Posted November 29, 2021 Day 9'er 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted November 29, 2021 Report Share Posted November 29, 2021 Nice little cold shot there, and surface gradients become favorable. Worlds better than where we've been. 1 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted November 29, 2021 Report Share Posted November 29, 2021 3 minutes ago, TigerWoodsLibido said: We've gone 5 years without one. We could easily go another 5. You've gone that long. 1 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted November 29, 2021 Report Share Posted November 29, 2021 3 minutes ago, Phil said: You looking at the same run I am? I see a greatly improved pattern from where we've been with good potential. 1 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 29, 2021 Report Share Posted November 29, 2021 1 minute ago, snow_wizard said: I see a greatly improved pattern from where we've been with good potential. Yeah. Just needs a little tinkering here and there. Less energy coming off eastern Siberia would be nice. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TigerWoodsLibido Posted November 29, 2021 Report Share Posted November 29, 2021 3 minutes ago, snow_wizard said: You've gone that long. Yes, hard as it is to believe, we are in the midst of our longest stretch on record without one. 1 1 Quote Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats: Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024) Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024) Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024) Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024) Total snowfall: 0.0" Total ice: 2.25” Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9") Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F) Last White Christmas: 1990 Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0 Personal Stats: Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F) Last White Christmas: 2008 Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0" Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4 Venmo GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2 My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope 24 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 29, 2021 Report Share Posted November 29, 2021 Day 10 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted November 29, 2021 Report Share Posted November 29, 2021 We haven’t been below 20 since March 2019. Yikes. 1 1 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 29, 2021 Report Share Posted November 29, 2021 Patience. As we move into the first week of December it all changes as the MJO moves from phase 6 to 7 and blocking dominates. MBG! 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TigerWoodsLibido Posted November 29, 2021 Report Share Posted November 29, 2021 3 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said: We haven’t been below 20 since March 2019. Yikes. Jeez. You’d figure the other shoe would drop down here but I think we are in a cycle that we won’t get out of until after we’re dead. Quote Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats: Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024) Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024) Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024) Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024) Total snowfall: 0.0" Total ice: 2.25” Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9") Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F) Last White Christmas: 1990 Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0 Personal Stats: Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F) Last White Christmas: 2008 Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0" Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4 Venmo GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2 My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope 24 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TacomaWaWx Posted November 29, 2021 Report Share Posted November 29, 2021 13 minutes ago, snow_wizard said: For one thing I don't even agree with his post. Looks decent to me. Not Arctic, but one more step toward getting there. We’re overdue here too. Last time Arctic air made it to the south sound was early February 2019 juuust barely met the criteria. Was 24 degrees here in the middle of the afternoon with light snow and strong north winds…fun times! Probably the last legit shot of Arctic air was February 2014. 3 Quote Tacoma WA elevation 300’ Monthly rainfall-3.56” Warm season rainfall-11.14” Max temp-88 +80 highs-2 +85 highs-2 +90 highs-0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TacomaWaWx Posted November 29, 2021 Report Share Posted November 29, 2021 5 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said: We haven’t been below 20 since March 2019. Yikes. Haven’t been below 25 since March 2019. We did get into the teens in February 2019 but we just haven’t had any legit cold in several years now. Quote Tacoma WA elevation 300’ Monthly rainfall-3.56” Warm season rainfall-11.14” Max temp-88 +80 highs-2 +85 highs-2 +90 highs-0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 29, 2021 Report Share Posted November 29, 2021 00z ECMWF 10 Day Rainfall, Snowfall totals Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawniganLake Posted November 29, 2021 Report Share Posted November 29, 2021 8 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said: We haven’t been below 20 since March 2019. Yikes. February 2019 for me. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted November 29, 2021 Report Share Posted November 29, 2021 Just now, ShawniganLake said: February 2019 for me. January 2020 for me. 19! Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TacomaWaWx Posted November 29, 2021 Report Share Posted November 29, 2021 Today was a torch 60/53 0.11” of rain and 9.60” for the month. Looking like we may have a hard time hitting 10” of rain for the month but it’ll be close…fine with me kind of glad rain has underperformed here a bit for once. Everything is just soaked ready for cooler drier weather for a bit. 1 Quote Tacoma WA elevation 300’ Monthly rainfall-3.56” Warm season rainfall-11.14” Max temp-88 +80 highs-2 +85 highs-2 +90 highs-0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TacomaWaWx Posted November 29, 2021 Report Share Posted November 29, 2021 Euro finally shows us getting a freeze on 12/7. Would be our latest first freeze since 2008 (12/14). Coldest low this season is still just 34 degrees. 1 1 Quote Tacoma WA elevation 300’ Monthly rainfall-3.56” Warm season rainfall-11.14” Max temp-88 +80 highs-2 +85 highs-2 +90 highs-0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted November 29, 2021 Report Share Posted November 29, 2021 So the Euro was awesome/shitty? Got it. 2 Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Slushy Inch Posted November 29, 2021 Report Share Posted November 29, 2021 With the new travel restrictions I wonder if the weather models will go crazy again because of the lack of data from planes. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted November 29, 2021 Report Share Posted November 29, 2021 2 1 2 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Skagit Weather Posted November 29, 2021 Report Share Posted November 29, 2021 1 hour ago, SilverFallsAndrew said: We haven’t been below 20 since March 2019. Yikes. Bellingham has only had 10 years without a low below 20 and while they dropped to 15 on January 17, 2020 they haven't gotten into the teens since. It will soon be BLI's 7th longest stretch without going below 20 (680 days), although they'd have to make it to the beginning of February to set the record. 1 Quote Home Wx Station Stats (Since January 2008): Max Temp: 96.3F (2009) Min Temp: 2.0F (2008) Max Wind Gust: 45 mph (2018, 2021) Wettest Day: 2.34 (11/4/22) Avg Yearly Precip: 37" 10yr Avg Snow: 8.0" Snowfall Totals '08-09: 30" | '09-10: 0.5" | '10-11: 21" | '11-12: 9.5" | '12-13: 0.2" | '13-14: 6.2" | '14-15: 0.0" | '15-16: 0.25"| '16-17: 8.0" | '17-18: 0.9"| '18-19: 11.5" | '19-20: 11" | '20-21: 10.5" | '21-22: 21.75" | '22-23: 10.0" 2023-24: 7.0" (1/17: 3", 1/18: 1.5", 2/26: 0.5", 3/4: 2.0", Flakes: 1/11, 1/16) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Skagit Weather Posted November 29, 2021 Report Share Posted November 29, 2021 Ended up with 0.9" for Sunday which puts me at 10.35" on the month and just over 35" on the year. This was looking like it was going to be a dryish year (I average around 35-37" a year), but no longer. 1 Quote Home Wx Station Stats (Since January 2008): Max Temp: 96.3F (2009) Min Temp: 2.0F (2008) Max Wind Gust: 45 mph (2018, 2021) Wettest Day: 2.34 (11/4/22) Avg Yearly Precip: 37" 10yr Avg Snow: 8.0" Snowfall Totals '08-09: 30" | '09-10: 0.5" | '10-11: 21" | '11-12: 9.5" | '12-13: 0.2" | '13-14: 6.2" | '14-15: 0.0" | '15-16: 0.25"| '16-17: 8.0" | '17-18: 0.9"| '18-19: 11.5" | '19-20: 11" | '20-21: 10.5" | '21-22: 21.75" | '22-23: 10.0" 2023-24: 7.0" (1/17: 3", 1/18: 1.5", 2/26: 0.5", 3/4: 2.0", Flakes: 1/11, 1/16) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bryant Posted November 29, 2021 Report Share Posted November 29, 2021 Whatcom County schools may be closed again tomorrow morning 5 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TigerWoodsLibido Posted November 29, 2021 Report Share Posted November 29, 2021 1 minute ago, Bryant said: Whatcom County schools may be closed again tomorrow morning Good to see you back again man! 1 2 Quote Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats: Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024) Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024) Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024) Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024) Total snowfall: 0.0" Total ice: 2.25” Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9") Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F) Last White Christmas: 1990 Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0 Personal Stats: Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F) Last White Christmas: 2008 Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0" Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4 Venmo GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2 My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope 24 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
High Desert Mat? Posted November 29, 2021 Report Share Posted November 29, 2021 9 hours ago, SilverFallsAndrew said: WOW. Hour 348? Haven’t we been seeing this for 2 weeks now? 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
High Desert Mat? Posted November 29, 2021 Report Share Posted November 29, 2021 3 hours ago, SilverFallsAndrew said: Yeah... I definitely haven't given up on December. Yay. More rain. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
High Desert Mat? Posted November 29, 2021 Report Share Posted November 29, 2021 Done looking at models for a couple days. Hopefully something will come out of them soon. By January at least. Jim’s enthusiasm isn’t cutting it anymore. Throw in the towel man. Wait until the EPS shows something remotely interesting. That’s the one to watch. Not run to run. Have faith in it. We’re in a temperate climate. Central Oregon sucks too right now. Could be a bad year. It is what it is. 1 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
smerfylicious Posted November 29, 2021 Report Share Posted November 29, 2021 1 hour ago, High Desert Mat? said: Done looking at models for a couple days. Hopefully something will come out of them soon. By January at least. Jim’s enthusiasm isn’t cutting it anymore. Throw in the towel man. Wait until the EPS shows something remotely interesting. That’s the one to watch. Not run to run. Have faith in it. We’re in a temperate climate. Central Oregon sucks too right now. Could be a bad year. It is what it is. That's right. We can call it everyone. Al Gore said it so it must be true. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TigerWoodsLibido Posted November 29, 2021 Report Share Posted November 29, 2021 1 3 Quote Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats: Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024) Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024) Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024) Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024) Total snowfall: 0.0" Total ice: 2.25” Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9") Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F) Last White Christmas: 1990 Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0 Personal Stats: Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F) Last White Christmas: 2008 Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0" Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4 Venmo GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2 My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope 24 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meatyorologist Posted November 29, 2021 Author Report Share Posted November 29, 2021 Oregon Cascades are completely demolished at the end of the 06z. Would be some all time snowfall records with that band. 1 1 Quote Weather stats for MBY Snowfall: -Total snowfall since joining: 50.25" -2018-19: 21" -2019-20: 2.5" -2020-21: 13" -2021-22: 8.75" -2022-23: 5.75" -2023-24*: 0.25" -Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024 -Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021 -Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019 Temperatures: -Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021 -Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021 -Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
smerfylicious Posted November 29, 2021 Report Share Posted November 29, 2021 Wow 06z delivers some goodies. Looks like hr 138 is a nice little shot of wet snow for me, and from that point on it's storm after storm with precip at near freezing temps. Lots of chances for snow. The end of that run is just a monster system. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 29, 2021 Report Share Posted November 29, 2021 6z GEFS more improvements were noted with this run throughout the long range period with a bit better blocking as ridging dominates, tilt of block, a few notches better amplification, increasing heights over Alaska, energy is shunted back towards eastern Siberia, southeast US ridge, and the Pacific jet dies retracting held back west of ~180 W/date line. All encouraging signs. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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