Minny_Weather Posted December 16, 2021 Report Share Posted December 16, 2021 SREF mean is 4". Not bad. 2 1 Quote Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gimmesnow Posted December 16, 2021 Report Share Posted December 16, 2021 1 hour ago, tStacsh said: The last 1/4 of the GFS would bring epic winter conditions to the state of Michigan. Lock it in. What could go wrong? GFS has been doing that a lot this fall. In fact it seems to wildly fluctuate between each run. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted December 17, 2021 Report Share Posted December 17, 2021 NOAA: Accumulation potential will be greatest where the cold air can hold on the longest (the low track again a big determining factor with the thermal profile), with around an inch on grassy and elevated surfaces possible across most of the region. Best potential for roadways and paved surfaces to see accumulations still looks to be north of M-59 at this time, and depending on rates, would not be surprised to see totals closer to 2-2.5 inches where snow holds on the longest. I'll accept this snowfall in a heart beat. 1 1 Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted December 17, 2021 Report Share Posted December 17, 2021 1 hour ago, Niko said: NOAA: Accumulation potential will be greatest where the cold air can hold on the longest (the low track again a big determining factor with the thermal profile), with around an inch on grassy and elevated surfaces possible across most of the region. Best potential for roadways and paved surfaces to see accumulations still looks to be north of M-59 at this time, and depending on rates, would not be surprised to see totals closer to 2-2.5 inches where snow holds on the longest. I'll accept this snowfall in a heart beat. Skunked in Wayne. Be good if ORD actually got on the board tho Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted December 17, 2021 Report Share Posted December 17, 2021 1 hour ago, Niko said: NOAA: Accumulation potential will be greatest where the cold air can hold on the longest (the low track again a big determining factor with the thermal profile), with around an inch on grassy and elevated surfaces possible across most of the region. Best potential for roadways and paved surfaces to see accumulations still looks to be north of M-59 at this time, and depending on rates, would not be surprised to see totals closer to 2-2.5 inches where snow holds on the longest. I'll accept this snowfall in a heart beat. Actually, NAM has come around. Now showing a decent event JUST north of me. (I get some pingers per GFS). The one thing this autumn/winter has featured here is that every moisture event has been on the higher end of the forecast range, if not above. Would be way cool if this somehow got just cold enough to thump me with some wet white stuff. Only need like 1/2 a county bump south. Not a moon shot 3 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted December 17, 2021 Report Share Posted December 17, 2021 LOL 12z CMC knows who's got the magnet this season = KDTW 1 1 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted December 17, 2021 Report Share Posted December 17, 2021 NAM out to h39 has snow further S like the GEM showed this morning. This could really make my Saturday more festive as the last week for Santa to get it in gear, lol 2 1 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted December 17, 2021 Report Share Posted December 17, 2021 15 hours ago, Tom said: + trends continue to show up for the Holiday week next week...could it end up being a Festive Miracle??? Let's see what the models are showing. Last nights 0z GFS/Euro are now picking up on a storm system to eject out into the Plains and ridge along the thermal boundary setting up across the central Sub. The ensembles are also showing increasing members of this scenario. 0z GFS... 0z Euro...not quite there but showing the possibility....with Arctic Air in toe...this bodes well for a lot of members on here to see some snow by the time Christmas rolls around. I believe Dec 20th is the date whereby if ORD does not receive any measurable snow, it will set an all-time record. This record may be held at bay if there is snow that falls on Sat. Models are suggesting it may snow here but that is looking 50/50 ATM. That west to east slider gradient deal has been $$ for us in the Lwr Lakes over the last decade. The aggressive "bomb storms" have been more-or-less absent, but GHD-2, Dec 2000 bliz, Nov 2015 storms have been the biggies in recent times. I'm still holding out hope due to all these bombastic surface cyclones recently, that we have a chance at snagging something exciting like Bliz of '99 that popped-up after the heat of Dec '98 1 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted December 17, 2021 Report Share Posted December 17, 2021 11 minutes ago, jaster220 said: NAM out to h39 has snow further S like the GEM showed this morning. This could really make my Saturday more festive as the last week for Santa to get it in gear, lol NAM!! 2 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted December 17, 2021 Report Share Posted December 17, 2021 1 hour ago, jaster220 said: Skunked in Wayne. Be good if ORD actually got on the board tho As for now, Wayne looks borderline.....I'd say from my area points north, looks good for a couple of inches. This should be good timing because it stays cold Sunday. Next week looks colder than what yesterdays outlook was showing, mainly mid 30s for highs now, if not colder, so snowcover has staying power. 1 Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted December 17, 2021 Report Share Posted December 17, 2021 6 minutes ago, jaster220 said: NAM!! Sweet! 2-3 inches....I'll sign up for that! Gotta pen..... 1 Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted December 17, 2021 Report Share Posted December 17, 2021 24 minutes ago, jaster220 said: LOL 12z CMC knows who's got the magnet this season = KDTW Sometimes these last second events end up being the best snowevents. 3 Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted December 17, 2021 Report Share Posted December 17, 2021 46 minutes ago, Niko said: Sometimes these last second events end up being the best snow events. Ikr. I am trying to make them all "last minute" by not looking at the LR models. (t)S(t)asch sees a run 252 hrs out that's exciting, only to get down because the very next run it's GONE. I don't need that. That's more depressing than the evening news. I had a TON of FUN when those 2 clippers kinda snuck-up on SEMI. 90hr 12 km NAM is my "go-to" button on the model sites. If it's showing something decent at that range, there's a decent chance it's legit. That's been working out pretty good, tho it was a little tardy to pick up on the Saturday event here. Just coming around with today's runs. Our events have trended better right up to "go time" so this could even do the same. 2 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minny_Weather Posted December 17, 2021 Report Share Posted December 17, 2021 Oh my god I hate weather so much. 2 2 Quote Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OmahaSnowFan Posted December 17, 2021 Report Share Posted December 17, 2021 GFS has us near 60 Christmas Eve and Christmas Day, lolz. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted December 17, 2021 Author Report Share Posted December 17, 2021 7 hours ago, jaster220 said: Skunked in Wayne. Be good if ORD actually got on the board tho 0z GEFS gives ORD hope... 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
westMJim Posted December 17, 2021 Report Share Posted December 17, 2021 December 17, 2021 The official overnight low at GRR so far is 28. Here at my house it is a colder 24 and with clear skies that is the current temperature here at my house. We are now just past the half way point for December 2021 and it has so far been a very mild month with well below average snow fall and a lot of wind. At Grand Rapids the current mean for this December is 36.5 that is a departure of +4.2. At Muskegon they have a mean of 38.9 and that is a departure of +5.3 and at Lansing the mean is 38.5 good for a departure of +7.1. In the snow fall department Grand Rapids has had 3.4” in December that is -6.3 where we should be by this date. For the season the 13.1” is -4.0 where we should be. At Muskegon the numbers on the snow fall are for December just 0.9” has fallen that is -9.6” and for the season 17.0” have fallen and that is -10.5” and to the east at Lansing they have had just 2.2” for December so far that is -3.2” and for the season they have now had 7.9” and that is -1.6”. While there could be some snow over the weekend there really don’t look to be all that much. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minny_Weather Posted December 17, 2021 Report Share Posted December 17, 2021 I was hoping for a last-second North shift on the clipper, but short-range models (which have been decent this year) didn't budge on the 12Z run. We'll see how 18Z goes but right now I'm looking at another 2 incher today. Quote Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted December 17, 2021 Report Share Posted December 17, 2021 47 minutes ago, someweatherdude said: Can someone explain why the cold air just can't get south this year? I know the jet stream is the immediate cause. I mean on a more fundamental level than that. Every time the cold air starts to move south, it seems like it hits a wall and slides back up to the northeast. The MJO is moving into phase 7. The AO is tanking. And yet the models still maintain that all but the northern most parts of the eastern part of the US are going to be AN for most of the next 3 weeks. What is an amateur like me missing? There is usually a lag of around a week with the MJO and AO. The AO is currently neutral and is now only predicted to drop to -2. The other problem is the PNA is deep negative which is not good for us to get artic air. Lets see if the models start trending colder after Christmas when the MJO influence can be a bigger driver. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted December 17, 2021 Report Share Posted December 17, 2021 1 hour ago, FAR_Weather said: I was hoping for a last-second North shift on the clipper, but short-range models (which have been decent this year) didn't budge on the 12Z run. We'll see how 18Z goes but right now I'm looking at another 2 incher today. You know she's not going to be happy with "another 2 incher" 3 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted December 17, 2021 Author Report Share Posted December 17, 2021 31 minutes ago, Clinton said: There is usually a lag of around a week with the MJO and AO. The AO is currently neutral and is now only predicted to drop to -2. The other problem is the PNA is deep negative which is not good for us to get artic air. Lets see if the models start trending colder after Christmas when the MJO influence can be a bigger driver. On point...I mentioned the "devil" or "dagger" to this pattern will be the stout -PNA signal. Unfortunately, this really needs to subside or the MJO head into a more amped Phase 7/8. 1 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tStacsh Posted December 17, 2021 Report Share Posted December 17, 2021 15 hours ago, jaster220 said: Ikr. I am trying to make them all "last minute" by not looking at the LR models. (t)S(t)asch sees a run 252 hrs out that's exciting, only to get down because the very next run it's GONE. I don't need that. That's more depressing than the evening news. I had a TON of FUN when those 2 clippers kinda snuck-up on SEMI. 90hr 12 km NAM is my "go-to" button on the model sites. If it's showing something decent at that range, there's a decent chance it's legit. That's been working out pretty good, tho it was a little tardy to pick up on the Saturday event here. Just coming around with today's runs. Our events have trended better right up to "go time" so this could even do the same. I hear ya, but the runs for the last month would have me at a few feet of snow by now. The problem is the trend is always colder and snowier at the end of the runs, but it never comes to fruition. So anyone basing a pattern change or anything winterlike in the models just keeps being completely wrong. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Timmy Supercell Posted December 17, 2021 Report Share Posted December 17, 2021 Been mid-40's since early this morning. Lightly rained a few times. 1 Quote Ashland, KY Weather '23-'24 Winter Snowfall - 5.50" First freeze: 11/1 (32) Minimum: 2 on 1/17 Measurable snows: 4 Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19) Thunders: 16 1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15 3/26, 3/30, 3/31, 4/2, 4/3, 4/8, Severe storms: 2 ------------------------------------------------------- [Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021] https://imgur.com/SuGTijl Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Timmy Supercell Posted December 17, 2021 Report Share Posted December 17, 2021 New info still coming out on that major tornado that started in Arkansas. It did offically cycle in northwest Tennessee. Still though, it lasted a long 160+ miles in Kentucky and will go down as an impressive December tornado event. Both tracks on the tornado appear to have done EF4 damage. Plus another separate tornado that struck Bowling Green with EF3 damage. 2 1 Quote Ashland, KY Weather '23-'24 Winter Snowfall - 5.50" First freeze: 11/1 (32) Minimum: 2 on 1/17 Measurable snows: 4 Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19) Thunders: 16 1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15 3/26, 3/30, 3/31, 4/2, 4/3, 4/8, Severe storms: 2 ------------------------------------------------------- [Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021] https://imgur.com/SuGTijl Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted December 17, 2021 Report Share Posted December 17, 2021 The only white Christmas seen for many reading will be on the Island of Misfits in Rudolph. A gun that shoots jelly. A boat that doesn't float. A cowboy that rides a rooster. A Charlie in the box? A December to remember? 4 1 Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tStacsh Posted December 17, 2021 Report Share Posted December 17, 2021 Yeah, the latest Euro says there will be no winter anytime soon in the Midwest. The trend continues. Time to start looking towards January at this point. What a disappointing start to the season. I'm think many snow(less) records may be in play in some areas. 2 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OttumwaSnomow Posted December 17, 2021 Report Share Posted December 17, 2021 Its horrible. My company has invested 31k$ in preparation for taking care of 55 commercial accounts and 50 residential. Not even a slush snow to do some salting etc. In fact no measurable rain for 37 days now! Its getting quite depressing. 51 minutes ago, tStacsh said: Yeah, the latest Euro says there will be no winter anytime soon in the Midwest. The trend continues. Time to start looking towards January at this point. What a disappointing start to the season. I'm think many snow(less) records may be in play in some areas. 51 minutes ago, tStacsh said: 2 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GDR Posted December 17, 2021 Report Share Posted December 17, 2021 Some records could be Shattered this winter/maybe winter 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tStacsh Posted December 17, 2021 Report Share Posted December 17, 2021 20 minutes ago, OttumwaSnomow said: Its horrible. My company has invested 31k$ in preparation for taking care of 55 commercial accounts and 50 residential. Not even a slush snow to do some salting etc. In fact no measurable rain for 37 days now! Its getting quite depressing. We always got the good old reliable upgraded GFS to spit out feet of snow in the long range! Pattern been changing on that model the last 30 days lol. 1 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tStacsh Posted December 17, 2021 Report Share Posted December 17, 2021 I hope people are giving credit to the computers and the few who went against a fast start to winter. 2 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minny_Weather Posted December 17, 2021 Report Share Posted December 17, 2021 Radar is ever farther south than short range models were this morning. I'll be lucky to even get an inch this far north. 1 1 Quote Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted December 17, 2021 Report Share Posted December 17, 2021 40 minutes ago, FAR_Weather said: Radar is ever farther south than short range models were this morning. I'll be lucky to even get an inch this far north. SR models ramping up as has been our trend this (kinda) winter: DTX: Quote Accumulations of about an inch to an inch and a half of sleet/snow are currently expected along and south of 8 Mile. Close to Lake Erie, slightly higher temps off the lake will cut into freezing/frozen precip so may just see mainly a cold rain there. North of 8 Mile, generally 1 to 2 inches of wet snow is expected by the afternoon with the low mid-December sun angle making accumulations likely on all surfaces. This is some room for slight overachievement between I-94 and I-69 if the strongest fgen/deformation coincides with pockets of favorable lower stability 1 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted December 17, 2021 Report Share Posted December 17, 2021 3 hours ago, tStacsh said: I hear ya, but the runs for the last month would have me at a few feet of snow by now. The problem is the trend is always colder and snowier at the end of the runs, but it never comes to fruition. So anyone basing a pattern change or anything winter-like in the models just keeps being completely wrong. The h90 NAM has not shown feet of snow for yby. That's what I said, I don't waste my time on LR (heck even MR it's gotten so bad this year). Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted December 17, 2021 Report Share Posted December 17, 2021 3 hours ago, Grizzcoat said: The only white Christmas seen for many reading will be on the Island of Misfits in Rudolph. A gun that shoots jelly. A boat that doesn't float. A cowboy that rides a rooster. A Charlie in the box? A December to remember? Tragic (yet cool) post. Sierra's in CALI look like they're literally "torching" like a live flame-thrower. But that's qpf. What is this, a NINO winter? Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted December 17, 2021 Report Share Posted December 17, 2021 Not a big deal, but a mood coating is welcomed all things considered. 4 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted December 17, 2021 Report Share Posted December 17, 2021 Ill be in Florida 23rd-28th so I expect a snowstorm imby while I'm gone lol jk....yeah ain't lookin good. Hopefully the new year will start off on a different note. 1 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Timmy Supercell Posted December 18, 2021 Report Share Posted December 18, 2021 10 minutes ago, james1976 said: Ill be in Florida 23rd-28th so I expect a snowstorm imby while I'm gone lol jk....yeah ain't lookin good. Hopefully the new year will start off on a different note. Share a few t'storms up this way? I'd like to switch out this gif I've been using since May 2016 at my last place. Cameras are hungry! 2 Quote Ashland, KY Weather '23-'24 Winter Snowfall - 5.50" First freeze: 11/1 (32) Minimum: 2 on 1/17 Measurable snows: 4 Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19) Thunders: 16 1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15 3/26, 3/30, 3/31, 4/2, 4/3, 4/8, Severe storms: 2 ------------------------------------------------------- [Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021] https://imgur.com/SuGTijl Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stacsh Posted December 18, 2021 Report Share Posted December 18, 2021 1 hour ago, jaster220 said: The h90 NAM has not shown feet of snow for yby. That's what I said, I don't waste my time on LR (heck even MR it's gotten so bad this year). I hear ya, but my point is a lot of internet weather people take the long range seriously and provide it as evidence that winter is coming or pattern change etc. I’ve never trusted anything over 5 days out. I don’t know how anyone can. It’s a terrible job to predict long range weather. Not easy and computers just can’t handle the data that far out. It’s why long range tanks every run. The data disappears the farther out the date and causes fools gold every time. 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gimmesnow Posted December 18, 2021 Report Share Posted December 18, 2021 22 minutes ago, Stacsh said: I hear ya, but my point is a lot of internet weather people take the long range seriously and provide it as evidence that winter is coming or pattern change etc. I’ve never trusted anything over 5 days out. I don’t know how anyone can. It’s a terrible job to predict long range weather. Not easy and computers just can’t handle the data that far out. It’s why long range tanks every run. The data disappears the farther out the date and causes fools gold every time. They are just doing it for internet fame. I've seen the Tik Tok videos Quote Hey guys super secret information but winter is coming in two weeks be prepared look at this graphic (shows GFS 12 days out) looks like a real huge storm is coming like and subscribe! 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted December 18, 2021 Report Share Posted December 18, 2021 22 hours ago, jaster220 said: Actually, NAM has come around. Now showing a decent event JUST north of me. (I get some pingers per GFS). The one thing this autumn/winter has featured here is that every moisture event has been on the higher end of the forecast range, if not above. Would be way cool if this somehow got just cold enough to thump me with some wet white stuff. Only need like 1/2 a county bump south. Not a moon shot Per DTX's pm AFD..."Morning precip type is likely to be all snow north of 8 Mile" I am due west of downtown Detroit so about "1 Mile" if there was such. Need to close a 7 mile gap, lol. 0z runs should be interesting.. 1 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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