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December 2021 Observations and Discussion


Tom
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Uneventful December doesn't surprise me, but nothing in Oct or Nov either does. Going to have to start watching for latest measurable snows. December 31, 2006 for both Omaha and Lincoln. 7.5" fell that day in Lincoln. 

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Snowfall in Lincoln, NE:

2017-18: 21.4"   2018-19: 55.5"   2019-20: 17.6"   2020-21: 49.4"   2021-22: 5.1" 🤮

Average: 26"

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The latest GFS has a week of 50s to near 60º here next week.  If it's not going to snow (no snow through Xmas on the GFS), then I'll gladly take mild air.

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season snowfall: 27.1"

 

'20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"

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Sunrise from Dec 1st I forgot to share. 

20211201_071920.jpg

20211201_072240.jpg

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Ashland, KY Weather

'21-'22 Cold Season

Snowfall - 16.1"
December: 0.1"
January: 9.9"
February: 1.3"
March: 4.8"

Snow days: 10 - 4.8" - 3/12
Cold Highs (32 or below): 7
Coolest: 21 (Jan 7th)
Extreme Lows (below 10): 4 
Minimum: 5 (Jan 22nd)
Max wind: 40mph (Feb 18th)

Thunders: 10
3/6, 3/23, 4/7, 4/11, 4/30, 5/1, 5/3, 5/6, 5/14, 5/16
5/-

[Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021]
https://imgur.com/SuGTijl

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1 minute ago, GDR said:

So I’ve been told that if I thought November and December was warm then wait til Jan. Record heat is on the table. 

Warmth in November is more understandable but crazy in January. Nov can be a wild card month especially where I lived before.

Ashland, KY Weather

'21-'22 Cold Season

Snowfall - 16.1"
December: 0.1"
January: 9.9"
February: 1.3"
March: 4.8"

Snow days: 10 - 4.8" - 3/12
Cold Highs (32 or below): 7
Coolest: 21 (Jan 7th)
Extreme Lows (below 10): 4 
Minimum: 5 (Jan 22nd)
Max wind: 40mph (Feb 18th)

Thunders: 10
3/6, 3/23, 4/7, 4/11, 4/30, 5/1, 5/3, 5/6, 5/14, 5/16
5/-

[Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021]
https://imgur.com/SuGTijl

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I see the fun already started in western KY. 

KPAH_loop-20211205.gif

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Ashland, KY Weather

'21-'22 Cold Season

Snowfall - 16.1"
December: 0.1"
January: 9.9"
February: 1.3"
March: 4.8"

Snow days: 10 - 4.8" - 3/12
Cold Highs (32 or below): 7
Coolest: 21 (Jan 7th)
Extreme Lows (below 10): 4 
Minimum: 5 (Jan 22nd)
Max wind: 40mph (Feb 18th)

Thunders: 10
3/6, 3/23, 4/7, 4/11, 4/30, 5/1, 5/3, 5/6, 5/14, 5/16
5/-

[Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021]
https://imgur.com/SuGTijl

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17 hours ago, jaster220 said:

GRR

Things are slower, less amped-up on the NAM. This will limit the serious WAA shown on earlier model runs that really bombed this sucker over NMI. Looks like the N half of The Mitt may escape the sloppy rain/mix altogether and just go into the dryslot. Meanwhile, frozen is more likely further south than originally thought. Was surprised how quickly it dropped into the 30's here even before dark.

1F634B9D-B250-40CA-8745-E0A9D74C4BCF.thumb.png.b551846d772c4b17138ec4430919d559.png
 

looks like just north of my house they are getting some significant frozen precipitation judging by road conditions.  

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38 minutes ago, westMJim said:

There looks to be rather heavy snow falling at this time in Houghton Michigan.

https://www.mtu.edu/webcams/view/

And there looks to be a good amount of snow on the ground in the Gaylord area at this time.

http://www.snowmancam.com/

 

 

The beauty about living up in the UP is your almost guaranteed to have real Winter every year.  Last time I was up there was in my early 20’s.  I gotta find the time to get up there again. 

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5 hours ago, Stacsh said:

1F634B9D-B250-40CA-8745-E0A9D74C4BCF.thumb.png.b551846d772c4b17138ec4430919d559.png
 

looks like just north of my house they are getting some significant frozen precipitation judging by road conditions.  

So, this part of the AFD was correct then?

"NOTE: When we issue this headline, it will be from 1 block NORTH of Stacsh's house north to the US10 corridor.."

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Winter 2021-22 Snow Total = 35.7"  Largest Storm: 5.6" (2/2-3)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 7.7 Dec: 2.5 Jan: 8.4 Feb: 12.3 Mar: 3.2 Apr: 1.6

 

Annual avg for mby = XX.X" ??

2020-21 = 36.2"  2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

 

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Southern SEMI got a huge jump-start. Totally not climo.

 

20201204 MRCC Seasonal Snowfall.PNG

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Winter 2021-22 Snow Total = 35.7"  Largest Storm: 5.6" (2/2-3)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 7.7 Dec: 2.5 Jan: 8.4 Feb: 12.3 Mar: 3.2 Apr: 1.6

 

Annual avg for mby = XX.X" ??

2020-21 = 36.2"  2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

 

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5 hours ago, Tom said:

The beauty about living up in the UP is your almost guaranteed to have real Winter every year.  Last time I was up there was in my early 20’s.  I gotta find the time to get up there again. 

Yeah, but the rumor is they miss T-storms, lol

Winter 2021-22 Snow Total = 35.7"  Largest Storm: 5.6" (2/2-3)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 7.7 Dec: 2.5 Jan: 8.4 Feb: 12.3 Mar: 3.2 Apr: 1.6

 

Annual avg for mby = XX.X" ??

2020-21 = 36.2"  2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

 

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Earlier this evening, there was snow mixing w rain and sleet, but quickly went to rain. Temps rise into the 40s tanite, b4 they tumble tomorrow.  I haven't really checked the latest, but from what I glanced on just recently, next week will be a roller coaster ride, as far as temps go. Do I dare say near 50F by this upcoming weekend. Holy smokes. December will most likely be AN through at least mid December, if not a little more than that. Hopefully b4 Christmas, it will get colder w some decent snow chances. "Tis the Season."

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Snowfall as of today May, 2022 is: 47.1" Detroit Metro Area

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58 minutes ago, jaster220 said:

Southern SEMI got a huge jump-start. Totally not climo.

 

20201204 MRCC Seasonal Snowfall.PNG

Indeed amigo..so far snowfallwise, we are doing fantastic. November featured BN temps and AN snowfall. I'll accept that!

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Snowfall as of today May, 2022 is: 47.1" Detroit Metro Area

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Ashland jumped over 10 degrees as soon as the wind changed to SSW on the observations.

I never had wild changes like that until moving here. ;)

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Ashland, KY Weather

'21-'22 Cold Season

Snowfall - 16.1"
December: 0.1"
January: 9.9"
February: 1.3"
March: 4.8"

Snow days: 10 - 4.8" - 3/12
Cold Highs (32 or below): 7
Coolest: 21 (Jan 7th)
Extreme Lows (below 10): 4 
Minimum: 5 (Jan 22nd)
Max wind: 40mph (Feb 18th)

Thunders: 10
3/6, 3/23, 4/7, 4/11, 4/30, 5/1, 5/3, 5/6, 5/14, 5/16
5/-

[Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021]
https://imgur.com/SuGTijl

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4 hours ago, james1976 said:

Wind Advisory tonight for 50mph gusts😯 15min ago it was calm. Just stepped out and its getting breezy suddenly. 

Local met still has light snow Tuesday. Maybe we can whiten the ground a bit. Regardless, they have upper 40s in the 8-10 day.

I will probably be put in an "Wind Advisory" too, most likely by tomorrow am's package. Winds could occasionally gust to as high as 50mph.

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Snowfall as of today May, 2022 is: 47.1" Detroit Metro Area

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9 hours ago, Hawkeye said:

The latest GFS has a week of 50s to near 60º here next week.  If it's not going to snow (no snow through Xmas on the GFS), then I'll gladly take mild air.

It will get mild, no question about that. My temps will be approaching near 50F by this upcoming weekend. Not as warm as ur area, but near 50F, or maybe slightly better is in the cards (mind you only one day) then, temps tumble the next day. As for no snow till Christmas, that is way too far out to let it disappoint you.

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Snowfall as of today May, 2022 is: 47.1" Detroit Metro Area

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@TomDo ya remember this.....

https://cms.accuweather.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/12/AP21047525991611.jpg?w=632

https://cms.accuweather.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/12/AP21047644750032.jpg?w=632

Cars parked for several days Tuesday, Feb. 16, 2021, are covered in cumulative snow in Chicago, the morning after a snowstorm dumped up to 18 inches in the greater Chicago area.

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Snowfall as of today May, 2022 is: 47.1" Detroit Metro Area

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1 minute ago, Niko said:

@TomDo ya remember this.....

https://cms.accuweather.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/12/AP21047525991611.jpg?w=632

Cars parked for several days Tuesday, Feb. 16, 2021, are covered in cumulative snow in Chicago, the morning after a snowstorm dumped up to 18 inches in the greater Chicago area.

That was my favorite  southeast Iowa storm.  17 inches and 7 foot drifts. It took me 3 hrs just to get to town to plow out the few commercial accounts  we had then. If that were to happen now my entire company  would  be totally swamped since were up to 50 commercial  accounts  to take care of!

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1 minute ago, OttumwaSnomow said:

That was my favorite  southeast Iowa storm.  17 inches and 7 foot drifts. It took me 3 hrs just to get to town to plow out the few commercial accounts  we had then. If that were to happen now my entire company  would  be totally swamped since were up to 50 commercial  accounts  to take care of! My bad! I was thinking the groundhog day chicago snow

 

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I will say, can't remember ever seeing AK, HI, and The Mitt with such active headlines simultaneously.
image.png.25405d17a5f0ca8d7e3ba76f7ef3ef00.png

 

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Winter 2021-22 Snow Total = 35.7"  Largest Storm: 5.6" (2/2-3)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 7.7 Dec: 2.5 Jan: 8.4 Feb: 12.3 Mar: 3.2 Apr: 1.6

 

Annual avg for mby = XX.X" ??

2020-21 = 36.2"  2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

 

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3 minutes ago, OttumwaSnomow said:

That was my favorite  southeast Iowa storm.  17 inches and 7 foot drifts. It took me 3 hrs just to get to town to plow out the few commercial accounts  we had then. If that were to happen now my entire company  would  be totally swamped since were up to 50 commercial  accounts  to take care of!

Those drifts can be phenomenal.

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Snowfall as of today May, 2022 is: 47.1" Detroit Metro Area

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The Friday snow event is back on all the major models.  Here's the Euro.

sn10_acc.us_mw.png

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season snowfall: 27.1"

 

'20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"

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5 hours ago, Niko said:

@TomDo ya remember this.....

https://cms.accuweather.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/12/AP21047525991611.jpg?w=632

https://cms.accuweather.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/12/AP21047644750032.jpg?w=632

Cars parked for several days Tuesday, Feb. 16, 2021, are covered in cumulative snow in Chicago, the morning after a snowstorm dumped up to 18 inches in the greater Chicago area.

Yup, I sure did...the way Winter ended here last year was amazing.  Snow falling every other day in extremely cold temps.  That date above was the aftermath, iirc, of the combination of system snow and lake effect snow that walloped the city.  I recall some neighborhoods had over 20"!  Hope to see that again this season.  

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The "Mid Month Torch" is undeniable...but...is there a glimpse of hope that Winter shall return??  It's a big "IF", but the latest trends among all the models is that by late Week 2 (around the 20th or Winter Solstice), the pattern is showing signs of change.  I'll dive deeper into this period bc it has had my attn for a while.  I'm going to bust on the big time torch coming our way but with the "bad" comes the "good".  I'd rather have it come early in the month then later.  I know it sucks to see some of you who get snow this weekend will likely see it melt away but at least you'll see some snow falling from the sky.

1.png

 

The + positive signs among the models are that they appear to all agree that the MJO moves into Phase 7 come mid month.

image.png

 

image.png

The LR clues up in the Strat suggest to me that the pressure pattern in W Canada will reverse course come the 20th of the month.  The CFSv2 has been jumping on this idea.  The animation below shows the troughing that has been dominating the pattern in the NE PAC/W Canada from what seems like all of NOV that eventually reverses course late NOV.  Fast Forward 3-4 weeks from the 28th of NOV and it will line up with the Week of the 19th, or rather, Christmas week!  So, with that being said, it may begin to look a lot like Christmas but we are going to get through this torch.  Hey, look on the bright side, if you haven't put your outdoor decor then you still got time (that includes me).

 

temp10anim.gif

Notice the warm colors that are blossoming over AK and N/NE Canada...thats a nice LR clue for HP to grow come Week 3 & 4 of DEC.  My mistake is that I was to quick on the cold to press and the BSR LR forecasting method didn't really pan out the way I expected it to.  Tough month to forecast for many MET's in the industry.  Nonetheless, is the best yet to come???

temp50anim.gif

 

 

 

Check out the pressure pattern on the CFSv2 during the aforementioned week above...

4.png

 

Corresponding temp pattern....I'm not going to back down on the idea that the cold will eventually "press" by the time we are entering the official start to Winter.  Those out west and north will see it first and eventually it'll bleed S/SE.  I foresee a very active SW Flow pattern evolving.  I suggested @Mr Marine Layerto look out for a wet month down in SoCal based on the LRC and the models are pointing in that direction.

 

8.png

We have to look for an active STJ as this is a strong feature of this years LRC off the SW coast of the western US.  As the saying goes, "keep your head up"...don't throw in the towel yet for winter to return after the Torch that is cometh.

image.png

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I'm really nervous about keeping this snowpack starting next week. It can handle one day in the mid-30s, but not three or four.

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>1" snowfalls at KFAR in 2021-22: 11/11-12 (1.0"), 11/13 (1.8"), 12/2 (1.0"), 12/4-5 (4.8"), 12/21 (3.1"), 12/25 (3.2"), 12/26-27 (8.6"), 12/28 (2.9"), 1/4-5 (3.2"), 1/14 (2.7"), 1/22 (2.8"),

 

Total 2021-22 snowfall at KFAR: 51.7"                                                  Coldest Minimum: -28*F (1/1, 1/7)

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Currently not torch-like, though. -3°F (first negative of the season) with a -25°F wind chill.

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>1" snowfalls at KFAR in 2021-22: 11/11-12 (1.0"), 11/13 (1.8"), 12/2 (1.0"), 12/4-5 (4.8"), 12/21 (3.1"), 12/25 (3.2"), 12/26-27 (8.6"), 12/28 (2.9"), 1/4-5 (3.2"), 1/14 (2.7"), 1/22 (2.8"),

 

Total 2021-22 snowfall at KFAR: 51.7"                                                  Coldest Minimum: -28*F (1/1, 1/7)

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Squall line just came overhead and it's torrential rain! It blocked all the downtown lights from my view.

Almost no lightning in these storms, I thought that's strange. 

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Ashland, KY Weather

'21-'22 Cold Season

Snowfall - 16.1"
December: 0.1"
January: 9.9"
February: 1.3"
March: 4.8"

Snow days: 10 - 4.8" - 3/12
Cold Highs (32 or below): 7
Coolest: 21 (Jan 7th)
Extreme Lows (below 10): 4 
Minimum: 5 (Jan 22nd)
Max wind: 40mph (Feb 18th)

Thunders: 10
3/6, 3/23, 4/7, 4/11, 4/30, 5/1, 5/3, 5/6, 5/14, 5/16
5/-

[Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021]
https://imgur.com/SuGTijl

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1 minute ago, Timmy_Supercell said:

Squall line just came overhead and it's torrential rain! It blocked all the downtown lights from my view.

Almost no lightning in these storms, I thought that's strange. 

Even though it's dark still, I could make out a gust front right before the downpours. 

Ashland, KY Weather

'21-'22 Cold Season

Snowfall - 16.1"
December: 0.1"
January: 9.9"
February: 1.3"
March: 4.8"

Snow days: 10 - 4.8" - 3/12
Cold Highs (32 or below): 7
Coolest: 21 (Jan 7th)
Extreme Lows (below 10): 4 
Minimum: 5 (Jan 22nd)
Max wind: 40mph (Feb 18th)

Thunders: 10
3/6, 3/23, 4/7, 4/11, 4/30, 5/1, 5/3, 5/6, 5/14, 5/16
5/-

[Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021]
https://imgur.com/SuGTijl

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The next two days will feel like winter.  Lake effect snow and winds 30-40 mph gusts higher along the lake shore.  Only looking at an inch which will be immeasurable due to the wind.   Gonna be cold with snow in the air and small piles of blowing powdery snow.   Perhaps I’ll experience my second whiteout of the year so far.   

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Wet today! Already picked up about an inch of rain and this line is not done feeding into NE Kentucky. 

KJKL_loop.gif

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Ashland, KY Weather

'21-'22 Cold Season

Snowfall - 16.1"
December: 0.1"
January: 9.9"
February: 1.3"
March: 4.8"

Snow days: 10 - 4.8" - 3/12
Cold Highs (32 or below): 7
Coolest: 21 (Jan 7th)
Extreme Lows (below 10): 4 
Minimum: 5 (Jan 22nd)
Max wind: 40mph (Feb 18th)

Thunders: 10
3/6, 3/23, 4/7, 4/11, 4/30, 5/1, 5/3, 5/6, 5/14, 5/16
5/-

[Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021]
https://imgur.com/SuGTijl

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Today, I can officially say Winter has arrived in my book...the gusty winds, cold temps and flurries flying make it look and feel like the season.  I guess my blood thinned out a bit while I was out in AZ bc this is quite the smack in the face!  I can't imagine being up north right now in the single digits and subzero WC's....I literally just got the chillz thinking about that.

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Street lights turned back on. ;)

Ashland, KY Weather

'21-'22 Cold Season

Snowfall - 16.1"
December: 0.1"
January: 9.9"
February: 1.3"
March: 4.8"

Snow days: 10 - 4.8" - 3/12
Cold Highs (32 or below): 7
Coolest: 21 (Jan 7th)
Extreme Lows (below 10): 4 
Minimum: 5 (Jan 22nd)
Max wind: 40mph (Feb 18th)

Thunders: 10
3/6, 3/23, 4/7, 4/11, 4/30, 5/1, 5/3, 5/6, 5/14, 5/16
5/-

[Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021]
https://imgur.com/SuGTijl

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70's are a real possibility this Friday in KC and than again a few days next week....WOW

 

Looks like the storm later this week will deliver a nice snow storm north of KC. Enjoy it while it lasts as it looks to melt a few days later. 

So, is the storm for late this week the Oct. 10/11th storm? If so, day 1 of LRC cycle two started today or starts tomorrow. Right?

 

 

 

 

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The UK is well north as well.  Minnesota is looking good.

This makes sense as the models show the cold relaxing ahead of the system (540 thickness line lifts north of Iowa).

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season snowfall: 27.1"

 

'20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"

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