PNW January 2022, Contact Info for Phil

[snow_wizard]

2 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Hard to expect to much from January. At least we are set up for a big February... Could be the 5th February in a row at SLE that is cooler than January... We are already in uncharted waters. 

Given up already?

FWIW the EPS shuts the Pacific down again just after day 10.  I still expect a good event later in the month.

[snow_wizard]

11 minutes ago, KingstonWX said:

I remember that too from all my childhood trips over there, but maybe that was the lack of snow in the puget sound bias. Or things have just changed, meteorologically, but that seems fairly unlikely, at least to that extent. 

EDIT: In fact, now that I think about it, they always had snow, but never a crazy amount. I remember a few times they got dumped on, but for the most part, it was a couple inches of cold dry snow and that was that.

I Iived north of Ellenburg for a couple of winters and they got way less snow than where I was.  It's very dry there.  They usually have snow cover for weeks, but it's not that deep usually.

[snow_wizard]

Still 26 here.  Nice to be one of the cold spots for a change.  Freeze number 20 is in the bag for this season.

[TacomaWaWx]

2 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

Still 26 here.  Nice to be one of the cold spots for a change.  Freeze number 20 is in the bag for this season.

32 at home so we got our 9th freeze in a row. 

[Skagit Weather]

Whelp, it's certainly unique out there currently. Right now I'm in Montana for a week, but with a temperature of 40F at home (even if the dew point is only 24F), I would say we can close the door on this event. The models look quite snowy for this upcoming week, although much of it looks pretty questionable. Anyways, if we end up getting more snow it seems like it should be a new event. Here are my highs/lows/snowfall over the past week:

12/24: 42.2/33.1/Tr
12/25: 37.1/24.3/5"
12/26: 24.3/9.2/3"
12/27: 17.5/6.6/1.5"
12/28: 22.7/8.8/Tr
12/29: 27.3/10.7/1"
12/30: 32.2/16.7/3"
12/31: 29.1/15.3/0"
01/01: 40.6/20.9/0"

5 days below freezing for 115 continuous hours (just missed out on Thursday with about an hour above freezing otherwise I would have notched 6 days and 164 consecutive hours below freezing). I think I may have stayed below freezing for more than a week in 2008, but I didn't archive the data so I can't remember exactly. I had three days with low temperatures in the single digits, 6 days with lows in the teens, and the coldest temperature since December 2008 (second coldest I've recorded) at 6.6F. My high of 17.5F (16.7F during the day) was the coldest high I've recorded by 7 degrees.

I ended up with 13.5" of snow and a peak snow depth of 8-9" on the morning of the 30th. I would say that this event didn't quite top 2008 for me, but was the second best snow/cold event I can remember. (I wasn't here for February 2019, but temperatures were warmer and I got less snow so it's hard to imagine it would have topped this event). So happy to have experienced it, especially the cold sunny days with snow on the ground, and was glad to see most of the rest of the area pick up some snow.

Happy New Year and here's to more snow as the winter progresses!

[Omegaraptor]

A wild inversion appeared!

[ShawniganLake]

28 to 38 in about an hour with a southerly breeze. Starting to rain lightly. This light powdery snow base is actually going to melt a lot faster than our typical consolidated concrete snow. 

[BLI snowman]

Topped out at 32 here yesterday. First subfreezing high in January since 2017. Actually was also the first sub-38F high!

[Cloud]

Temperatures continues to fluctuate here quite a bit with the winds. Been bouncing back and forth between 30 to 34F. 

[KingstonWX]

1 hour ago, snow_wizard said:

The 925s are going to fall when the heavy precip set in tomorrow night.  We knew all of this already.

My mom said that's a promise, and if you break it, well then, you owe me even more snow. 

[KingstonWX]

1 hour ago, snow_wizard said:

I Iived north of Ellenburg for a couple of winters and they got way less snow than where I was.  It's very dry there.  They usually have snow cover for weeks, but it's not that deep usually.

That lines up with my memory the more I really think about it. I was just fascinated with snow, the amount wasn't really important and everything seemed to operate as normal so it probably wasn't much, even though it seemed fascinating to me as a kid. I'm a snow freak, that's why I'm here. It is sorta like Leavenworth too though. Leavenworth can have winters where it's completely snowed in for a month or more, but it can also have winters that are basically like what us in Western WA are experiencing right now. Some snow, some melt, some more snow, total melt, then more snow, etc. My cabin is a ways up the Chumstick so it snows more than it does down in the town, but some years are just off, others are on. 

[NWbyNW]

I posted this in last's month's topic by mistake.

Very quiet today.  

Here are some various things for people to look at.  All from GFS. First one shows Sunday, Monday, Tues, Wed, Thurs for precipitation forecast.  Last images show various GFS models of predicted temps.  Dates can be seen in each respective picture.

 

 

[smerfylicious]

Looks like Wunderground thinks I'm gonna get 2 feet of snow by Friday. Sure. We'll add to my yard glaciers

[KingstonWX]

5 minutes ago, smerfylicious said:

Looks like Wunderground thinks I'm gonna get 2 feet of snow by Friday. Sure. We'll add to my yard glaciers

It says 1.14" of rain for me today lol. If that could be snow, man. I'd either die happy or get whatever tattoo necessary. 

That being said, my ex and my son were up your way last week. They said there was TONS of snow there where they stayed, outside Goldbar. That 2ft isn't really all that crazy in the right circumstances is it?

[smerfylicious]

2 minutes ago, KingstonWX said:

It says 1.14" of rain for me today lol. If that could be snow, man. I'd either die happy or get whatever tattoo necessary. 

That being said, my ex and my son were up your way last week. They said there was TONS of snow there where they stayed, outside Goldbar. That 2ft isn't really all that crazy in the right circumstances is it?

Yeah it wouldn't be too crazy, though if I don't score Index and east of likely will. There seems to be a mysterious cutoff to marginal events, and it starts just past the "Let's Go Espresso" haha. 

I still have 10+ inches, compacted on my lawn and my roof is still covered. Didn't get above 33 today and we're below freezing with 20mph winds from the pass. Could happen! We'll just have to see

[crf450ish]

Whatever happened to that Jesse character?

[snow_wizard]

I think the temperatures later this morning are going to be quite telling.  The ECMWF has Western King County warming up much more and much more quickly than the GFS.  If SEA is still in the 30s by mid morning we have to assume the GFS has a better handle on things.  Right now SEA is 30 with some a light east wind blowing.  That is some cold outflow.  There is very cold air in play east of the Cascades.

[snow_wizard]

17 minutes ago, crf450ish said:

Whatever happened to that Jesse character?

Banned.

[snow_wizard]

1 hour ago, BLI snowman said:

Topped out at 32 here yesterday. First subfreezing high in January since 2017. Actually was also the first sub-38F high!

Are you serious?  Yikes!

[TigerWoodsLibido]

7 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

Are you serious?  Yikes!

Only a handful of locations in the PNW have gone longer...

[GHweatherChris]

1 hour ago, BLI snowman said:

Topped out at 32 here yesterday. First subfreezing high in January since 2017. Actually was also the first sub-38F high!

So 32° is sub freezing?  Asking for a friend.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Since 2020 started we have had 4 below normal month temp departures...

[Cloud]

GFS refusing to blink. This is quite extraordinary. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

That trough next weekend looks fantastic on the GFS. 

[Blizzard777]

1 hour ago, snow_wizard said:

I think the temperatures later this morning are going to be quite telling.  The ECMWF has Western King County warming up much more and much more quickly than the GFS.  If SEA is still in the 30s by mid morning we have to assume the GFS has a better handle on things.  Right now SEA is 30 with some a light east wind blowing.  That is some cold outflow.  There is very cold air in play east of the Cascades.

30* here currently with ESE flow 

[Brennan]

7 hours ago, snow_wizard said:

I was just referring to the Vancouver station only having 7 in Nov 1985.  Not sure how that happened.  I hope to tell you I was very jelly in Jan 2005.

Right, I just mean that it seems like Vancouver is a poor spot for cold despite being further north. I’m surprised by that too!

[MossMan]

34.7 with a DP of 28. Still no melting! 

[Tyler Mode]

Today is my coldest average low for the entire year at 29 degrees.  Today's low drops that down to 28.8.

It's also the latest sunrise...

[Tyler Mode]

It always amazes me how quickly the switch can flip in Bellingham!

[Cloud]

Looks like NWS canceled the wind advisory for areas outside of Bellingham. Interesting. 

[Everleigh]

29.1° this morning. Biggest gust of wind....4.5mph. Lol Going to wave bye bye to the snow this morning. Sad to see it leave.  

[MNoggle81]

NWS is either going to be really right, or REALLY wrong. Below is their forecast for Paine Field.

 

Tonight

Rain. Steady temperature around 38. South southeast wind 13 to 17 mph, with gusts as high as 23 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New precipitation amounts between a half and three quarters of an inch possible.

Monday

Rain and snow showers, becoming all rain after 1pm. High near 39. South wind around 11 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. Little or no snow accumulation expected.

[Ray]

Currently 28 this morning and the wind is dead calm.  It will be interesting to see how long we can stay below freezing.  I know it's just a matter of time though.  I have lived in the south King, north Pierce county areas coming up on 60 years now and the performance of this past event is nothing to be ashamed of.  It will be one of the most memorable ones for sure.

[Blizzard777]

Still 30* out  

[Hawksfan2008]

[Blizzard777]

1 hour ago, Everleigh said:

29.1° this morning. Biggest gust of wind....4.5mph. Lol Going to wave bye bye to the snow this morning. Sad to see it leave.  

Sad Panda….I’m with you 

Still beautiful out there this morning 

 

[Blizzard777]

GFS says it’s a bit breezy in PDX Monday morning 

[SnowWillarrive]

10 minutes ago, hawkstwelve said:

Geez... The 12z GFS is still showing 6-9 inches here by 10AM tomorrow even with Kuchera ratios. Normally it starts to cut it's outlandish totals about 24-36 hours before the event but not this time. At least not yet. 06z Euro showed 3-4 inches and the 06z HRDPS also shows 6-8 inches.

I have been pretty dang skeptical of this one for a while now but it sure seems the models think it will happen. NWS remains steadfast that we will see mostly cold rain. Not sure what to believe at this point.

28 degrees here with DP in the 20s. I really thought it be much warmer this morning. Surprised temps still holding below freezing in EPSL. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Looks like we hit 29 this morning at some point, up to 34 now. 

[Esquimalt]

An inch of freezing rain on the gfs this morning here continuing the trend of thrursday’s event being snow to freezing rain. Any clue how damaging that much freezing rain would be?