PNW February 2022 - Winters Last Stand

[SilverFallsAndrew]

1 minute ago, Deweydog said:

It’s coming.

This is PDX though, so no one will be overly shocked if they shoot up to 50 between 5 minute Obs.

[Cascadia_Wx]

14 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

We don’t advect cold all that well here. Without seriously burley advection or stratiform precip, late October sun angles are gonna do their thing to some extent. It’s the birds and the bees of borderline climates.

Relatively “warm” start playing a role today too

[Meatyorologist]

12 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Are these clouds in Washington going to clear tonight? I am glad we've cleared out so nicely down here. I know many of you would take 1/2" of snow over a sub-25 low, but that's not how I roll. 

Maybe. Though they are keeping it cold here today. 33°F after a high of 34°F earlier this morning. Clouds are thickening up on satellite. Really impressive day for late February sun angles and negligible (now nonexistent after this morning) snowcover.

[Cascadia_Wx]

Nice looking 12z EPS pretty much no above average 850s on this particular run 

 

Growing agreement on a meaningful wet period toward the end of the month/beginning of March too 

[MWG]

Welp no snow for me only a bit of flurries around 8:30am with sun out lol. Low this morning was 30F and currently is 45F. Expecting low for tomorrow morning is 15F. 

[Meatyorologist]

KSEA reporting light snow and 33°F at 2pm. This airmass has some bite to it.

[Deweydog]

3 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

Relatively “warm” start playing a role today too

I’d say that’s pretty negligible. In fact, if we’d seen a more robust wind shift line develop, as was modeled a couple days ago, the down valley winds would have likely had more of a downslope component to them.  The slower dry advection may have actually slowed diurnal warming a bit.

[T-Town]

Flurrying!

[Cascadia_Wx]

4 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

I’d say that’s pretty negligible. In fact, if we’d seen a more robust wind shift line develop, as was modeled a couple days ago, the down valley winds would have likely had more of a downslope component to them.  The slower dry advection may have actually slowed diurnal warming a bit.

We’re so bad at caa we’re even bad at being bad at it 

[Meatyorologist]

2/22/2022 2:22pm and 22 seconds passed

[Blizzard777]

8 minutes ago, T-Town said:

Flurrying!

Here too with sunshine 

[The Blob]

11 minutes ago, T-Town said:

Flurrying!

Sunning here.

[Deweydog]

8 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

2/22/2022 2:22pm and 22 seconds passed

[SilverFallsAndrew]

GFS is drier for everyone!

[Kuna_Idaho_Dude]

Topped out at 29 today. 35 was forecasted, temp now dropping. Currently 28.

[BLI snowman]

15 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

GFS is drier for everyone!

Even Lake Oswego!??

[SilverFallsAndrew]

1 minute ago, BLI snowman said:

Even Lake Oswego!??

ESPECIALLY Lake O. Jim will like where things are going in the long range though... Pacific is SHUT DOWN. With some continental influence.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

I spy some frosty March mornings!

[SouthHillFrosty]

Lightly snowinggggggggg

[Skagit Weather]

Looks like I'll top out around 35F today. Currently clear skies and all the snow is gone except in shaded areas.

The magnitude and timing for this cold air will be remarkably similar to February 2018 (although maybe two days shorter in extent). With that my highs and lows were:

2/19: 36/24
2/20: 38/26
2/21: 33/23
2/22: 40/19
2/23: 36/26

Getting down below 20F tonight would make this feel like a respectable late February cold snap.
 

[Omegaraptor]

The Columbia River is the new Cascade Crest. Washington gets more ARs while Oregon is low and dry!

[Meatyorologist]

Down to 32°F at SeaTac at the 3pm update. Still lightly snowing.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Wow, this is chilly for March!

[SilverFallsAndrew]

1 minute ago, Meatyorologist said:

Down to 32°F at SeaTac at the 3pm update. Still lightly snowing.

Outstanding news!

[Deweydog]

PDX might try to get all cocky and hold up at 38???

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Alrighty then...

[SilverFallsAndrew]

NWS going with a low of 19 at PDX tonight... OK

[RentonHill]

3 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Alrighty then...

whats CFS been saying??

[T-Town]

Temp fell from 35 to 33 with the snow shower. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Just now, RentonHillTC said:

whats CFS been saying??

You know it's all over the freaking place. 

[Joshua Lake Oswego]

58 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

GFS is drier for everyone!

Yep. The inevitable shift north happened. Earlier than expected. I thought the rug would get pulled from us in about 2 more days. The GEM and Euro are completely at odds with the GFS. I know that whichever model is the driest is the one that will happen regardless of how accurate that model normally is. So, the GFS will win in this case.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

23/14 at Horse Creek on the west slopes of the Cascades near the Molalla River drainage. Currently 17 there. Their coldest day in February 2011 was 27/10 and 24/14 in February 2019, so this one stacks up pretty well. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

1 minute ago, Joshua Lake Oswego said:

Yep. The inevitable shift north happened. Earlier than expected. I thought the rug would get pulled from us in about 2 more days. The GEM and Euro are completely at odds with the GFS. I know that whichever model is the driest is the one that will happen regardless of how accurate that model normally is. So, the GFS will win in this case.

Arctic BLAST in the long range.

[Joshua Lake Oswego]

45 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

Even Lake Oswego!??

ARs shift north 100% of the time when the bullseye is originally forecasted to be in my neck of the woods. If the original bullseye is south of here, it will not shift north 100% of the time. It's incredible. 

[Joshua Lake Oswego]

3 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Arctic BLAST in the long range.

I couldn't care less about cold at this point. In fact, I don't want it. It could be detrimental to plants and trees since quite a few are leafing-out or have well-developed buds. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

PDX didn't hit 40.

[TacomaWaWx]

Getting some light snow in parkland. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Severe clear here in Salem. Temp down to 39.

[Cascadia_Wx]

High of 37 at PDX

Sort of impressive for them to go from a high of 67 with east winds to a high 30 degrees colder with east winds a week and a half later.  A decent retrogression 

Ended up holding at 35 here DP around 10 should be interesting to see how low things go tonight 

[Phishy Wx]

Made it to 19,  so a sub 20 high.

winds are starting to relax some too.  gusts now in the 20s

gunna be interesting to see if we can make a run at 0 or below.  forecast low now 2