Stacsh Posted February 14, 2022 Report Share Posted February 14, 2022 GRR radar will be down for 2 weeks 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted February 15, 2022 Report Share Posted February 15, 2022 18z Euro slightly wider with the snow shield and a little more juiced. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OttumwaSnomow Posted February 15, 2022 Report Share Posted February 15, 2022 2 hours ago, bud2380 said: Close up Kuchera Compared to 12z Kinda ridiculous. So here in Ottumwa Ia, its 0 to 18"? Models are a joke. Either gfs scores a massive winner or its a absolute joke. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jayhawker85 Posted February 15, 2022 Report Share Posted February 15, 2022 2 minutes ago, Clinton said: 18z Euro slightly wider with the snow shield and a little more juiced. The Euro is stubborn south and the American is stubborn to the North. Which one will cave in and be right! 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted February 15, 2022 Report Share Posted February 15, 2022 18z Euro slightly further north. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clintbeed1993 Posted February 15, 2022 Report Share Posted February 15, 2022 5 minutes ago, OttumwaSnomow said: Kinda ridiculous. So here in Ottumwa Ia, its 0 to 18"? Models are a joke. Either gfs scores a massive winner or its a absolute joke. I have no clue what they're having such trouble with, but they are rarely THIS far apart in different universes this close to a storm. They have performed particularly badly this winter. I wonder if it's the progressive split flow pattern that's the culprit... 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stacsh Posted February 15, 2022 Report Share Posted February 15, 2022 15 minutes ago, clintbeed1993 said: I have no clue what they're having such trouble with, but they are rarely THIS far apart in different universes this close to a storm. They have performed particularly badly this winter. I wonder if it's the progressive split flow pattern that's the culprit... Gotta look at the ensembles because the op models are struggling with the cold push. At this point like the last storm a few miles will make a difference it seems. Euro gives me a few inches. GFS is a storm we haven’t had here in years. I’m siding with euro right now. It did better here last time. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted February 15, 2022 Report Share Posted February 15, 2022 18z Euro looks beautiful for S MI. 1 1 Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted February 15, 2022 Report Share Posted February 15, 2022 18z EC is further NW this run and the Mean also 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted February 15, 2022 Report Share Posted February 15, 2022 1 hour ago, Jayhawker85 said: The Euro is stubborn south and the American is stubborn to the North. Which one will cave in and be right! I bet they meet in the middle, the Euro just gave a little lets see what the GFS does tonight. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clintbeed1993 Posted February 15, 2022 Report Share Posted February 15, 2022 47 minutes ago, Stacsh said: Gotta look at the ensembles because the op models are struggling with the cold push. At this point like the last storm a few miles will make a difference it seems. Euro gives me a few inches. GFS is a storm we haven’t had here in years. I’m siding with euro right now. It did better here last time. The ensembles are also worlds apart, so that doesn't help much here 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted February 15, 2022 Report Share Posted February 15, 2022 15 minutes ago, Clinton said: 18z EC is further NW this run and the Mean also That dry slot really hasn’t budged all winter in any storm. From here to South Dakota the beat goes on. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted February 15, 2022 Report Share Posted February 15, 2022 21 minutes ago, CentralNebWeather said: That dry slot really hasn’t budged all winter in any storm. From here to South Dakota the beat goes on. Hope that gets broke down before spring even if it's rain. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterfreak Posted February 15, 2022 Report Share Posted February 15, 2022 NAM: 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterfreak Posted February 15, 2022 Report Share Posted February 15, 2022 NAM QPF: 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shakjen Posted February 15, 2022 Report Share Posted February 15, 2022 Caplan had a pretty good breakdown of the models on his Facebook. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted February 15, 2022 Report Share Posted February 15, 2022 4 minutes ago, winterfreak said: NAM: Looks like it will join team GFS. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted February 15, 2022 Report Share Posted February 15, 2022 Pretty solid shift north by the nam. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted February 15, 2022 Report Share Posted February 15, 2022 3 hours ago, Stacsh said: I’m just gonna assume this will miss again like the last one a few counties south. I’m ok with that. I’m just gonna assume this will miss again like the last one a few counties north. I’m ok with that. Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstorm83 Posted February 15, 2022 Report Share Posted February 15, 2022 Not to brag but I do have a 7% chance of 1” 2 Quote Snowfall in Lincoln, NE: 2017-18: 21.4" 2018-19: 55.5" 2019-20: 17.6" 2020-21: 49.4" 2021-22: 5.1" Average: 26" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted February 15, 2022 Report Share Posted February 15, 2022 CPC - Gives Chicago and SW from there the winds. They always get the winds while here it's like winds during winter storms don't exist. 1 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted February 15, 2022 Report Share Posted February 15, 2022 0z RDPS more in line with the Euro. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterfreak Posted February 15, 2022 Report Share Posted February 15, 2022 2 minutes ago, Clinton said: 0z RDPS more in line with the Euro. Can’t wait to see the CMC… 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted February 15, 2022 Report Share Posted February 15, 2022 4 minutes ago, someweatherdude said: The amounts seem so much more realistic than the NAM/GFS, which makes me think this solution (or something very similar) is more likely to verify. Maybe the track of the NAM with the RDPS amounts. I still think KC does better than me with this one. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted February 15, 2022 Report Share Posted February 15, 2022 The ICON has had a slight drift north but it's been maybe the most consistent with track and amounts for KC. Here is the last 5 runs. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stacsh Posted February 15, 2022 Report Share Posted February 15, 2022 31 minutes ago, jaster220 said: I’m just gonna assume this will miss again like the last one a few counties north. I’m ok with that. Kazoo to Lansing special 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
indianajohn Posted February 15, 2022 Report Share Posted February 15, 2022 1 hour ago, shakjen said: Caplan had a pretty good breakdown of the models on his Facebook. Probably does the best job going through all the models.. the ice part is very concerning for my area… Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stacsh Posted February 15, 2022 Report Share Posted February 15, 2022 GFS stronger and north lol. I don’t know what think lol Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OmahaSnowFan Posted February 15, 2022 Report Share Posted February 15, 2022 38 minutes ago, snowstorm83 said: Not to brag but I do have a 7% chance of 1” And I'm at 8%. Ha! 3 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted February 15, 2022 Report Share Posted February 15, 2022 Cmon GFS. Be right just once. I’m still hoping for an even further shift north. But it shows 15” this run for Iowa city 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted February 15, 2022 Report Share Posted February 15, 2022 3 minutes ago, OmahaSnowFan said: And I'm at 8%. Ha! I’m at 0%. I got you both beat. 1 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted February 15, 2022 Report Share Posted February 15, 2022 GFS has a blizzard from Topeka through Michigan. 3 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MKEstorm Posted February 15, 2022 Report Share Posted February 15, 2022 GFS stronger and north! Would like to see the Canadian and Euro do the same though. Usually when these Panhandle Hook storms get stronger, they go more north. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KCSmokey Posted February 15, 2022 Report Share Posted February 15, 2022 NWS KC Thoughts (Thread) https://twitter.com/NWSKansasCity/status/1493415309176311808 As you all are probably aware, we are monitoring a potentially significant winter storm for Thursday, but are hesitant to narrow down the specifics at this time. Why is that? And what are the unknowns? Well, it’s complicated. A thread 1/7… 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted February 15, 2022 Report Share Posted February 15, 2022 0z GEFS 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted February 15, 2022 Report Share Posted February 15, 2022 Canadian a tad further north. But not anywhere near the gfs. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted February 15, 2022 Report Share Posted February 15, 2022 UK also north. But still not near the GFS Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted February 15, 2022 Report Share Posted February 15, 2022 00z UK 1 1 Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted February 15, 2022 Report Share Posted February 15, 2022 Think our odds in E IA are somewhat better with this one compared to the last storm. But that doesn't mean they're good... 2 Quote 2021-22 Snowfall: (Hiawatha) TOTAL: 10.2" (12/28: 3.0") (12/29: 0.8") (1/1: 6.4") Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted February 15, 2022 Report Share Posted February 15, 2022 00z Euro - Nearly the same as 12z central and east, but much better for eastern KS into west-central MO. It's looking good for Clinton. 2 Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Join the conversation
You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.