Full EPS

Its a watch... accounting for possibility of high end event.

Frustratingly, uncertainty and thus ensemble spread are both still quite high, so it's tough to say. The next 12 hours will be critical as this low in question develops off the coast west of Los Angeles, so models should in theory be in agreement by noon tomorrow if not tonight's 00z runs. My gut feeling is windy but not catastrophic. But at this point we don't know for certain.

A coastal track makes more sense to me, but with the weaker jet a much weaker surface low and inland track isn’t outlandish. Models should have it sorted out in the next 36 hours or so. P a t i e n c e

It won’t be. Maybe down south somewhere but not up here.