February Weather in the Pacific Northwest

[DareDuck]

Redmond, OR up to 49 after a morning low of 4.

 

Horse Ridge east of Bend with a 45/-16 day so far.

52/7 so far here today. Lowest min of the season, skied this morning, and now hiking with pups this afternoon.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Wander the yard enjoying the sunshine just now and took some 'before' pics and then will compare after we return.     Although this is already after a couple solid freezes the last two nights... including 26 this morning.

 

 

 

 

I have been paying attention on what and where things are blooming and it varies huge amounts from place to place. I can see trees are coming to life there. Near my house there are some trees beginning to wake up but in my yard barely anything. Down the road in a clear cut I seen some rhodies blooming and mine are not even close. Same with my Cherry trees and my Japanese maple trees. Mine are dormant and I see others are awake. Pretty interesting. 

[Esquimalt]

Yeah pray to God that this 18Z is an anomaly.  If it isn't...well I don't wanna go into that.  

[Geos]

The massive SSW is going to through some models for a loop most likely.

[Deweydog]

Wander the yard enjoying the sunshine just now and took some 'before' pics and then will compare after we return. Although this is already after a couple solid freezes the last two nights... including 26 this morning.

 

 

 

 

Looks like your tape job on those leaves didn't make it through the winter, despite it being pretty tame and lame. Back to the drawing board...

[TT-SEA]

Looks like your tape job on those leaves didn't make it through the winter, despite it being pretty tame and lame. Back to the drawing board...

 

Had to remove the taped leaves in preparation for spring.   Heading out to put it all back up now since it will be awhile.  

[Farmboy]

Phil did say the ssw would be seriously messing with models.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Yeah pray to God that this 18Z is an anomaly. If it isn't...well I don't wanna go into that.

How the hell is that a bad run? It has multiple snow events for the central and south Willamette Valley. Hell, even the north coast could see action. These latest GFS runs have been orgasmic esp for mid/late Feb.

[Perturbed Member]

You know we've had some great model runs lately when people are calling a run that shows no less than five different snow chances a "bad run". 

 

Yeah for a second I thought I had seen the wrong run with people complaining about the 18z. Hardly a bad run. A bit slower with the cold but it gets there eventually.  

[Esquimalt]

How the hell is that a bad run? It has multiple snow events for the central and south Willamette Valley. Hell, even the north coast could see action. These latest GFS runs have been orgasmic esp for mid/late Feb.

It's just not great.  A lot of the time it's a lot of cold rain.   Sure there are a couple of good events, but temps this run seem quite a bit warmer.   

[Jbolin]

It's just not great.  A lot of the time it's a lot of cold rain.   Sure there are a couple of good events, but temps this run seem quite a bit warmer.   

Do you even know how this forum operates? 

 

It goes like this

 

The 18Z comes out and a few folks start panicking

Then Tim comes on and quells some of those fears by showing a massive ridge at 240 hrs out

The Jim comes on and with some relevant posts about the near term the models are currently showing

Then Tim responds to Jim by saying that daffodils in his front yard starting sprouting the day after X-mas

 

And finally

 

Phil posts how our minuscule shred of hope regarding any chance of cold/snow is pissed away by a splitting PV that will eventually be shunted east AGAIN!

 

C'mon man, get with the program.

[ShawniganLake]

Yeah pray to God that this 18Z is an anomaly. If it isn't...well I don't wanna go into that.

Didn’t think it was that bad. One arctic shot followed by chilly NW flow, as the Alaskan ridge de amplifies is a pretty probably outcome. Haven’t seen much support for multiple arctic blasts in the ensembles.

[seattleweatherguy]

advertise a significant pattern

change by the weekend. Recent model runs continue to indicate a

retrograding ridge offshore and a cold low arriving from the

northwest. Winds may be the initial issue, possible advisory level

across the area. It will depend on if the ECMWF is correct with the

deepening low tracking near the WA/B.C. border giving tight

southerly gradient over the area. Other models agree with a system

arriving Saturday but are not as strong with the gradients and wind.

 

Virtually all models show additional energy on the back side of the

high amplitude ridge driving a modified arctic front into the north

interior as outflow winds probably develop. The air aloft is also

colder with this system which almost supports onshore snow near sea-

level. A band of showers Wednesday night could very well fall as

spotty snow around interior Western Washington. If this high

amplitude ridge does develop, cold air will drive over the mountains

and not rely upon Fraser outflow alone. Highs could be cooler than

forecast but kept Sunday and Monday slightly milder than what might

occur. It will be interesting to see how models trend this week.

Mercer

[SilverFallsAndrew]

The 18z is great for snow above 500-1000'. Big time mountain snow. Lord knows we need it.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

NWS forecasting lows of 10-15 here Monday night. 

[Jbolin]

NWS Seattle just tweeted sprinkles with some sleet mixed in

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Ensembles aren't as good. But I am sure we'll live

[Geos]

NWS Seattle just tweeted sprinkles with some sleet mixed in

 

Dew points in the 20s will do that.

[Frontal Snowsquall]

From Steve over at KOIN:

 

Here are my latest thoughts...

 

** WINTER IS NOT OVER YET IN PORTLAND **

 

The coldest air since Christmas is likely this coming holiday weekend and lasting into next week across much of the Pacific Northwest.

 

Models have been consistent in advertising this change, as a cold trough of low pressure will dig down the British Columbia coast this coming weekend. By President's Day considerably colder air is forecast to be in place. Increased easterly gorge outflow across the Portland metro area is likely in this scenario. Daytime highs would likely be in the 30s with overnight lows in the 20s.

 

Although rare, snow and cold weather have occurred in February in Portland. Some of the most recent occurrences include 2014, 1995 and 1993. It is still too early to tell whether there will be any moisture available for snow in the immediate Portland area.

 

Future model runs will need to be watched carefully as changes to the overall forecast are possible. The KOIN 6 weather team will have the latest updates 24/7 on-air and online.

 

Steve Pierce

KOIN 6 Meteorologist

[Deweydog]

President's Day is the new MLK.

 

#weatherisracist

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Ensembles quite a bit warmer for PDX. Still -6 at 850mb but not -8 like it was showing this morning. Operational still shows 1-2 snow possibilities for Salem and Eug tho.

[Geos]

44/24 at home right now. Would be nice to see some hint of frozen precip tonight.

[wxmet]

18z GFS run looked great for Seattle next Monday. You wouldn't know it just reading this read. C-Zone setups nicely. Gladly take 3 inches followed by a few days of sustained cold air. 

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

President's Day is the new MLK.

 

#weatherisracist

Long-haired freaky people need not apply.

[kokaneekidz]

12z EPS for Everett looks amazing. Seattle ends up around 2 inches. Portland ends around 3. Bellingham around 3 as well.

 

Not sure if ensembles can pick up on mesoscale features like CZs, but this lends me to believe they can considering Everett is so much higher than surrounding locations.

That shows an inch tomorrow on Valentine's Day?!? I do not hear anyone mentioning snow on the news Steve Pool sure hasn;'t mentioned this ? Is that a good sign??

[Jbolin]

That shows an inch tomorrow on Valentine's Day?!? I do not hear anyone mentioning snow on the news Steve Pool sure hasn;'t mentioned this ? Is that a good sign??

Steve Pool couldn't forecast a BBQ sandwich 

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Steve Pool couldn't forecast a BBQ sandwich 

Post of the year!!!!

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Steve Pool couldn't forecast a BBQ sandwich 

 

He is without a doubt the worst forecaster ever to live in the PNW. 

[Jbolin]

He is without a doubt the worst forecaster ever to live in the PNW. 

That's b/c Scott Sistek is the real brains behind the operation over at KOMO

[liquidsnow]

He is without a doubt the worst forecaster ever to live in the PNW.

Walter Kelly has him beat.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Rich Marriott  wouldn't forecast snow if we were all pushing it with the bumpers of our cars to work. 

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Walter Kelly has him beat.

 

Walter is a cool dude though. 

[Frontal Snowsquall]

The JMA is stuck at Feb 10 on tropicaltidbits but I just saw what the 12z put out today on meteocentre and man does it look good. Similar to the EURO, arctic air arrives on February 19. No real warm up and a colder reinforcing arctic shot at day 9 just to make sure if the first one wasn't enough. Onto the 00z model runs tonight. ❄❄❄

 

http://img.meteocentre.com/models/jma_amer_12/TT_GZ_UU_VV_144_0850.gif

http://img.meteocentre.com/models/jma_amer_12/TT_GZ_UU_VV_168_0850.gif

http://img.meteocentre.com/models/jma_amer_12/TT_GZ_UU_VV_192_0850.gif

http://img.meteocentre.com/models/jma_amer_12/TT_GZ_UU_VV_216_0850.gif

[Poulsbo Snowman]

President's Day is the new MLK.

 

#weatherisracist

You are one funny mofo... Good to see someone with my humor on here.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

A fairly impressive 38/21 up here today. Down to 31 under mostly clear skies. 

[HighlandExperience]

Snowcover on parts of mt hood looks pathetic.

[snow_wizard]

Looks like fun times coming!

 

There is an unmistakable early indication of another cold shot around day 9 or 10 if you look at the EPS and GEFS 500mb ensemble means.

[snow_wizard]

Snowcover on parts of mt hood looks pathetic.

 

This is what you're worried about right now?

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Looks like fun times coming!

 

There is an unmistakable early indication of another cold shot around day 9 or 10 if you look at the EPS and GEFS 500mb ensemble means.

 

This is true. Its weird the 12z runs yesterday were WAY worse than the 18z today and I was the only person concerned. The 18z today just isn't quite as cold, same general pattern. Nothing to worry about in itself. 

[Winterdog]

Walter Kelly has him beat.

No way. Kelly is at least entertaining. Pool is a human opioid