December 2019 Weather Discussion for the PNW

[Omegaraptor]

Oregon department of agriculture recently released their December-February forecast. It is not pretty... The 3 analogs they used were 1969-70, 1977-78, 1980-81. OUCH.

 

Pretty sure they predicted a warmer than average October, a dry September, and a cool August as well. I would not worry too much about them. Also 1980-81 was a solar max year.

 

Monthly forecasts have one thing in common: they’re almost never accurate.

[Bryant]

Wives... who needs em?!

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Wives... who needs em?!

 

It's why we die younger. Its like congress. We like our wife, but we don't understand how anyone else would like theirs. 

[El_Nina]

Clear and 33 with a thin smog layer about 100ft thick still remaining.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Dipped as low as 33 so far this morning. Currently 36 with dense fog. 

[Phil]

People need to make up their minds.

 

Zonal, blocking, zonal blocking, zonally infused blockbusters, zombified Chuck Knoblauchs, etc.

 

Time is wasting and Christmas lists need to be submitted S O O N.

[TT-SEA]

EPS has been very consistent in the long range.   Definitely more active... but not that cold.   Still a hint of split flow as well.

 

 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Pretty mild morning in the valley. Looks like most temps are running in the mid-40s. 

[Gradient Keeper]

6z GFS HUGE Mt. Snows and even some for the Coast Range.

 

[Gradient Keeper]

SSTs tanking across the board with a huge resurgence of cold water off South America. #2ndYearNinoHOAX

 

 

 

[El_Nina]

Temperatures are about 5 degrees cooler in the southeast metro outside of the city. 33 in Damascus, 36 Happy Valley but 40 in Gresham.

[Tyler Mode]

Very shallow fog that keeps coming in going.  Temperatures are bouncing between 36-40 as it moves in and out.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

EPS has been very consistent in the long range.   Definitely more active... but not that cold.   Still a hint of split flow as well.

 

 

 

A better pattern, but definitely no hint of lowland snow. 

[Phil]

SSTs tanking across the board with a huge resurgence of cold water off South America. #2ndYearNinoHOAX

 

 

 

Meh. Just a small upwelling wave. Not even on-par with the one in September.

 

There’s a deeper downwelling wave building out in the WPAC now.

 

[Jesse]

43 and cloudy this morning.

[ShawniganLake]

SSTs tanking across the board with a huge resurgence of cold water off South America. #2ndYearNinoHOAX]

SON ONI came in at +0.3

[SilverFallsAndrew]

This must be one of the strongest Nino's on record right now. Right Phillip?

[Jesse]

06z GFS was a fantastic run. I’d probably throw down a crisp Andrew Jackson to see that verify verbatim.

[Phil]

This must be one of the strongest Nino's on record right now. Right Phillip?

It’s Philip, with one L. Nobody can figure that out, lol.

 

Definitely one of the strongest +IODs on record, which is largely responsible for your dryness (E-IO/Maritime Continent subsidence). Which is “El Niño adjacent”.

[Phil]

I’ve seen discussion of this lately, and I wholeheartedly agree. There should be a “niño 5” added to the western portion of the Pacific Basin to capture the western flank of the warm pool, and instead of taking the Niño 3.4 average, one should average the entirety of the ENSO regions (with a 6 month running mean for niño 1.2) to calculate the ONI.

 

Would correlate much more strongly to atmospheric dynamics across the NH during boreal fall/winter.

[Phil]

And perhaps factor the VP200 anoms/upper level dynamics from 100E to 120W into the picture via a low pass filter to really gauge the spatial/multi-domain communication of the “ENSO” system state.

 

Would solve so many problems, even if not all of them.

[Phil]

Because this winter is a nightmare of mixed messages from the forecasting community.

 

“ENSO NEUTRAL!!!”..yeah not so much. Okay, yes it’s true that the current regime is not remotely close to a *canonical* El Niño, but no way in hell is the system state indicative of a “neutral” ENSO. It’s been an unwavering background state across the EHEM that is “El Niño adjacent”..through which many modoki/niño-west characteristics that arising and translating into the Pacific, even if modestly. Remember the EHEM is where many (if not most) of the El Niño effects on wavetrains come from anyways (the circulation over the E-IO/Indo-Pacific/warm pool heat engine).

[FroYoBro]

Because this winter is a nightmare of mixed messages from the forecasting community.

 

“ENSO NEUTRAL!!!”..yeah not so much. Okay, yes it’s true that the current regime is not remotely close to a *canonical* El Niño, but no way in hell is the system state indicative of a “neutral” ENSO. It’s been an unwavering background state across the EHEM that is “El Niño adjacent”..through which many modoki/niño-west characteristics that arising and translating into the Pacific, even if modestly. Remember the EHEM is where many (if not most) of the El Niño effects on wavetrains come from anyways (the circulation over the E-IO/Indo-Pacific/warm pool heat engine).

Who cares ya silly science man!

 

When snow?

[Phil]

Thing is, modoki/niño west events have a history of producing decent winters in the PNW outside that brutal stretch in the 1980s/1990s, which was mostly due a terrible BDC/stratosphere (thanks to solar/volcanism/CFCs) that only delivered out there during Niña/+QBO winters or solar minima and failed in almost every other circumstance.

 

Can’t treat every ENSO the same. Depends on the entire nature and capacity of the background state it exists within.

[GHweatherChris]

Who is Phil talking to?

[MossMan]

Currently 31 and partly foggy.

[Phil]

Who cares ya silly science man!

 

When snow?

Brief window of opportunity late month, if that fails next chance (maybe the best chance?) is late January (IMO).

 

Models right now are a gargantuan hot mess. Some of these projections for late December are lol-tastic and will probably end up backwards vs reality.

[TacomaWaWx]

Morning low of 43 in Tacoma. No rainfall overnight...we’re at 0.60” for December.

[Phil]

[MossMan]

Brief window of opportunity late month, if that fails next chance (maybe the best chance?) is late January (IMO).

 

Models right now are a gargantuan hot mess. Some of these projections for late December are lol-tastic and will probably end up backwards vs reality.

I want to hear that January will be epic. All of January.

 

That is all.

[TacomaWaWx]

The next 5 days on the gfs look good. 1-2 inches of rain in the western OR/WA lowlands...not major snow in the cascades but a much needed boost.

[Rubus Leucodermis]

Clear and frosty in north Bellingham this mornong.

[Rubus Leucodermis]

I want to hear that January will be epic. All of January.

 

That is all.

 

Was: #endOfNovember #allOfDecember

Is: #endOfDecember #allOfJanuary

Coming soon: #endOfJanuary #allOfFebruary

[Phil]

Finally looks like we eliminate that stupid Scandinavian vortex/Mongolian high during week 2. Closes a pathway for downstream frictional torque of AAM input from East-Asia and manifests pressure on the NAM.

[Rubus Leucodermis]

Finally looks like we eliminate that stupid Scandinavian vortex/Mongolian high during week 2. Closes a pathway for downstream frictional torque of AAM input from East-Asia and manifests pressure on the NAM.

 

AAM?

NAM?

[TT-SEA]

Crystal clear here this morning... some light frost.

[Front Ranger]

I want to hear that January will be epic. All of January.

 

That is all.

I'm still liking later this month into early January. The timing seems right given pattern progressions this cold season, and the state of the Pacific.

[ShawniganLake]

[Rubus Leucodermis]

I'm still liking later this month into early January. The timing seems right given pattern progressions this cold season, and the state of the Pacific.

 

Always nice when there's snow to accompany the holiday decorations.

[Omegaraptor]

Atmospheric angular momentum and something else. I think

I would guess North American Monsoon but I don’t know if that’s a thing at this time of year.