[Missing] March 2022 PNW Wx Discussion

[Phil]

Interestingly the AAM budget is as La Niña-like as it’s looked anytime during the past 2 years. Largest negative anomalies are in the NH subtropics.

[BLI snowman]

17 minutes ago, Phil said:

Interesting how that’s basically the inverse of our climo. Autumn is the boring season out here. And the worst month is September.

Mid September to late December is easily the most interesting and dynamic part of the year here.

[Deweydog]

12 minutes ago, Phil said:

Interestingly the AAM budget is as La Niña-like as it’s looked anytime during the past 2 years. Largest negative anomalies are in the NH subtropics.

Inflationary pressures.

[Joshua Lake Oswego]

Dryyyyyy

[MossMan]

14 minutes ago, Joshua Lake Oswego said:

Dryyyyyy

Wish I could send some of my mud down your way. Been WET up here. 

[weatherfan2012]

41 minutes ago, Phil said:

Interestingly the AAM budget is as La Niña-like as it’s looked anytime during the past 2 years. Largest negative anomalies are in the NH subtropics.

Yet Larry Cosgrove is predicting a weak El nino by the fall I like Cosgrove and have a ton of respect for him but I'm not sure what he is seeing for him to be thinking that.It interesting none of the less 

[TT-SEA]

1 hour ago, MossMan said:

Wish I could send some of my mud down your way. Been WET up here. 

It has been as wet or even wetter down there this month.    Just as muddy.   It will always be drier than Joshua wants... according to him.   I now envision sand dunes when I think of Portland... but yet it's actually been a wetter than normal rainy season down there. 

Edited March 24, 2022 by TT-SEA

[TT-SEA]

1 hour ago, Phil said:

Days start getting shorter in 13 weeks. 

Days start getting longer in 39 weeks.

[MossMan]

38 degrees. 

[Rubus Leucodermis]

One sunny afternoon. One sunny afternoon, and not a particularly warm one. That’s all it took to get the yoshino cherry blossoms to start opening in Vancouver.

[Rubus Leucodermis]

1 hour ago, TT-SEA said:

It has been as wet or even wetter down there this month.    Just as muddy.   It will always be drier than Joshua wants... according to him.   I now envision sand dunes when I think of Portland... but yet it's actually been a wetter than normal rainy season down there. 

Willamette Valley weenie mode. It’s a thing.

[Meatyorologist]

[Meatyorologist]

Sunday could be very interesting in the Willamette Valley, as well as the Cascades in both WA and OR.

The warm season approacheth

[Joshua Lake Oswego]

7 hours ago, TT-SEA said:

It has been as wet or even wetter down there this month.    Just as muddy.   It will always be drier than Joshua wants... according to him.   I now envision sand dunes when I think of Portland... but yet it's actually been a wetter than normal rainy season down there. 

Except that we are below normal for March, below normal for the year, and will likely soon be below normal for the water year. 

[TT-SEA]

2 minutes ago, Joshua Lake Oswego said:

Except that we are below normal for March, below normal for the year, and will likely soon be below normal for the water year. 

Only -.08 for March... and within an inch of normal for 2022... and +1.69 for the water year.    

Pretty much climo down there.   And the entire NW part of Oregon is no longer even in a drought.    

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Looking at the models it seems that once again a nightmare scenario is developing with summer starting even earlier than ever. Essentially late March this year.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Currently 37 and clear.

[TacomaWaWx]

Got down to 38 this morning. First weekend in April looked pretty nice on the euro might be out camping if it pans out. Euros backed off on rain for the final week of April here…would put us about 1” below normal for the month. 

[TT-SEA]

8 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Looking at the models it seems that once again a nightmare scenario is developing with summer starting even earlier than ever. Essentially late March this year.

Summer never starts in March... or April... and almost never in May up here.   Occasionally in June but most often July.

[FroYoBro]

Chilly morning. Got down to 34 here with mostly clear skies. 

[TacomaWaWx]

9 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Looking at the models it seems that once again a nightmare scenario is developing with summer starting even earlier than ever. Essentially late March this year.

Somethings definitely changed in Oregon in the last decade. Might just be the new normal in terms of climo. Went down there on a road trip in mid September all the way through central Oregon and back up I-5 through Eugene. Despite recent rainfall at the time there was pretty significant drought signs…especially in the central Oregon cascade crest. 

[TT-SEA]

12 minutes ago, TacomaWaWx said:

Somethings definitely changed in Oregon in the last decade. Might just be the new normal in terms of climo. Went down there on a road trip in mid September all the way through central Oregon and back up I-5 through Eugene. Despite recent rainfall at the time there was pretty significant drought signs…especially in the central Oregon cascade crest. 

Its likely related to the expansion of the SW high pressure and ongoing drought down there.     Oregon is caught between the mega drought to the south and the increasing rainfall in SW BC and western WA which is a direct result of the expanding high pressure over the SW as moisture gets pumped in up here around that high pressure.  

Unfortunately, this has happened many times in the past long before humans were altering the climate and seems to be part of a natural cycle.    It could change at any time... or last 100+ years.   There is no way to know.

[Meatyorologist]

9 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Its likely related to the expansion of the SW high pressure and ongoing drought down there.     Oregon is caught between the mega drought to the south and the increasing rainfall in SW BC and western WA which is a direct result of the expanding high pressure over the SW as moisture gets pumped in up here around that high pressure.  

Unfortunately, this has happened many times in the past long before humans were altering the climate and seems to be part of a natural cycle.    It could change at any time... or last 100+ years.   There is no way to know.

It’s likely in response to AGW with interdecadal variability.

Though there are some questions that remain… Does the system respond to AGW as expected, or does the system state remain while also ambiently warming? Evidence points to a combination of the two, leaning towards the former, but it’s nearly impossible to tell for certain. Time will tell.

The western coast of the US is the most sensitive location in the midlatitude northern hemisphere when it comes to climate. Rather benign shifts in weather patterns that would minutely alter climate on the east coast translate to massive changes in annual rainfall over a majority of the west. The OR/CA border region into the OR cascades and down into the Sierras are particularly susceptible to dramatic changes, often changing climate zones alltogether from century to century, or even decade to decade. We’ve already seen this recently in the last 50 years.

Since the region is so heavily forested and harbors such developed ecosystems and large biodiversity, we stand the most to lose with climate change. Though there are no winners of course.

[Timmy Supercell]

10 hours ago, Phil said:

Interesting how that’s basically the inverse of our climo. Autumn is the boring season out here. And the worst month is September.

Depending on the year, September was the driest month in the Klamath Basin. I had one year only a trace of precip was recorded between Sep 1st thru Oct 15th. Internet will say July, but I found t'storm season would have to be near non-existent for that to be the driest.

Early Fall was most of the time a beautiful time of year. Someone will name drop 2018 or 2020 smoke tho, but take it from someone who did more than just drive by town for a week. September even on the dead calm days, typically has 20 mile visibility. Still warm that time of year but not really hot. It wouldn't often get higher than 90 but rarely below 70 through late September, and DP's in the 40 ish range. I just didn't like the weeks in a row of dry, it can get old. 

[Cascadia_Wx]

1 hour ago, TacomaWaWx said:

Somethings definitely changed in Oregon in the last decade. Might just be the new normal in terms of climo. Went down there on a road trip in mid September all the way through central Oregon and back up I-5 through Eugene. Despite recent rainfall at the time there was pretty significant drought signs…especially in the central Oregon cascade crest. 

There are signs of heat and drought damage all over western wa too slightly higher winter rainfall doesn’t offset the warmer and drier warm seasons even up there 

[Timmy Supercell]

9 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

People ignore the drought in central and eastern Washington too because of a certain spammer. 

If it's wet at Prof. Cliff's, all is fine. 

[Rubus Leucodermis]

6 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

There are signs of heat and drought damage all over western wa too slightly higher winter rainfall doesn’t offset the warmer and drier warm seasons even up there 

Not just an issue in OR and WA, either: https://open.library.ubc.ca/soa/cIRcle/collections/ubctheses/831/items/1.0074955

[TT-SEA]

1 hour ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

People ignore the drought in central and eastern Washington too because of a certain spammer. 

Eastern WA gets its water from the Cascades and they are doing great.     Its always dry in central and eastern WA.    Even wetter than normal is still very dry.    And Spokane is almost perfectly normal for the water year and Pullman is +2.18.    

I report on Western WA... where many of us live.    Western WA has been very wet and there is no drought here.   You seem to be saying that discussing our weather up here is spamming because its different in other places.   But one has nothing to do with the other.   Both are realities.     Saying everything is good up here has nothing to do with Oregon or California.   

 

 

[TT-SEA]

17 minutes ago, Timmy_Supercell said:

If it's wet at Prof. Cliff's, all is fine. 

Its definitely fine in WA.  

But I have never said its good in central and eastern Oregon and California or the rest of the West for that matter. Its not.

 

[TT-SEA]

4 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Idk why I even address Tim on here. His nonsense is baked in, it will never change, and he will never stop. I try to Ignore it and should just go back to ignoring it, everyone knows it’s nonsense, no sense getting into a back and forth. 

Tell what is nonsense?   I am literally saying its not good in Oregon and California and across most of the West.     You seem to be on a pity party streak lately and take offense to anyone up here is looking forward to nicer weather and the change of seasons.    Don't know what to tell you.    I understand the overall situation very well.    There is not much room for debate... it is what it is.

[AlTahoe]

12 hours ago, Meatyorologist said:

March is my least favorite month of the year for many reasons.

Meteorologically speaking it's like tepid tapwater. The mid March through early April period in particular is just very, very boring. Late April into May and beyond, we can start getting thunderstorm outbreaks, heatwaves, aesthetic cloudscapes aside from stratoform gray.

In Tahoe June is the no mans land. Usually to early for heatwaves , to late for snow, and to early for the Monsoon.  Our last snow is generally the week of Memorial day weekend (snow on 6 out of the last 8 years) 

[TT-SEA]

4 minutes ago, AlTahoe said:

In Tahoe June is the no mans land. Usually to early for heatwaves , to late for snow, and to early for the Monsoon.  Our last snow is generally the week of Memorial day weekend (snow on 6 out of the last 8 years) 

Wow... we have a pretty good run of nice Memorial Day weekends up here.    

[AlTahoe]

2 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Wow... we have a pretty good run of nice Memorial Day weekends up here.    

The week of memorial day last year was brutal. The ongoing joke up here is to expect snow the week of memorial day. 

[Joshua Lake Oswego]

2 hours ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Looking at the models it seems that once again a nightmare scenario is developing with summer starting even earlier than ever. Essentially late March this year.

Started in March last year too. We had a 7 month summer.

[TT-SEA]

12Z is very wet in early April...

 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

2 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

12Z is very wet in early April...

 

Yes, unfortunately it's like the arctic blast that keeps getting pushed back... 

[MWG]

3 hours ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Looking at the models it seems that once again a nightmare scenario is developing with summer starting even earlier than ever. Essentially late March this year.

I have only lived here for 11 years but I have seen the change. Very warm weather would be in July we would even have some 70's in June. Now it seems like +90F starts in April 

[MossMan]

[SilverFallsAndrew]

4 minutes ago, MossMan said:

We had 10.8" with that event. It's actually the latest significant snow event we've had since I've lived here. Don't really remember much about the setup, but it was a pretty nice event. I remember summer started around April 22nd that year, so a little later... Just kidding, but May was like a normal July that year, and then July was ridiculously warm, I think Salem had 18 90+ days that July. 

[Phil]

3 hours ago, Meatyorologist said:

The western coast of the US is the most sensitive location in the midlatitude northern hemisphere when it comes to climate. Rather benign shifts in weather patterns that would minutely alter climate on the east coast translate to massive changes in annual rainfall over a majority of the west. The OR/CA border region into the OR cascades and down into the Sierras are particularly susceptible to dramatic changes, often changing climate zones alltogether from century to century, or even decade to decade. We’ve already seen this recently in the last 50 years.

Since the region is so heavily forested and harbors such developed ecosystems and large biodiversity, we stand the most to lose with climate change. Though there are no winners of course.

Interesting. I think it depends on the specifics of the forcing(s)/boundary conditions involved.

Based on proxy data, I’d argue the region with the most dramatic climate variability is actually the North Atlantic domain (including Europe and Eastern North America). It appears to be unmatched anywhere else on the planet.

It’s just that the triggers are likely different. And as you alluded to, degree of variability ≠ sensitivity to change at any given point in time, necessarily. Perhaps each region is “sensitive” to a unique set of conditions which may or may not present itself.