Phil Posted May 2, 2022 Report Share Posted May 2, 2022 Getting some serious Tim weather out here today. Full sunshine and 80 degrees with rock bottom humidity. Gonna make the most of these next few weeks since this kind of weather won’t return for 4+ months once the swamp switch turns on. 2 1 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted May 2, 2022 Report Share Posted May 2, 2022 1 hour ago, Cascadia_Wx said: Nice to see the GFS ensembles flatter with the week two ridging than the operational. I remember when the operational runs were sold on a massive ridge starting around the 5th and that has since been reduced to a pretty short lived one between troughs. Will have to see if we get that lucky again with the next round It did that in mid-April as well. Something about the last GFS upgrade really screwed up now it handles NPAC shortwaves during the spring months. Don’t see the issue as much during the second half of summer or autumn. 1 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted May 2, 2022 Report Share Posted May 2, 2022 ECMWF is slower to move the big trough/ULL out next week... guessing that trend will continue. 3 2 Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted May 2, 2022 Report Share Posted May 2, 2022 Minnesota might go from endless winter right into the furnace next week... 1 1 1 Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted May 2, 2022 Report Share Posted May 2, 2022 2 minutes ago, TT-SEA said: Minnesota might go from endless winter right into the furnace next week... At least we stay in E/NE flow with the big ridge in the Midwest. Will keep temps (and especially humidity) at bay. Waters are still chilly enough to serve as an air conditioner at this time of year. 1 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kayla Posted May 2, 2022 Report Share Posted May 2, 2022 26 minutes ago, RentonHillTC said: @Kayla Haha I just saw that! It's showing a massive 12-24" region wide snowstorm early next week. Still a long ways out but most importantly the Euro shows a widespread 3-4" of precip over the next 10 days. Looking like a great start to our wet season. 5 Quote Cold Season 2023/24: Total snowfall: 26" Highest daily snowfall: 5" Deepest snow depth: 12" Coldest daily high: -20ºF Coldest daily low: -42ºF Number of subzero days: 5 Personal Weather Station on Wunderground: https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=KMTBOZEM152#history Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TacomaWaWx Posted May 2, 2022 Report Share Posted May 2, 2022 2 hours ago, TT-SEA said: SEA is just about to 20% of normal rainfall for May just this morning. Lets keep it going and get to above normal for the entire month by this weekend. We’re probably going to be above average precip for may within the first 10 days of the month. Pretty decent snow totals in the WA/OR cascades on this run too. Quote Tacoma WA elevation 300’ Monthly rainfall-3.56” Warm season rainfall-11.14” Max temp-88 +80 highs-2 +85 highs-2 +90 highs-0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard777 Posted May 2, 2022 Report Share Posted May 2, 2022 Moab Opinion from locals - red dust sucks and blows everywhere! Winds are brutal here as well blowing the red dust! Experienced that yesterday. Impossible to keep the 4Runner clean here.!! Can’t imagine trying to keep outdoor furniture clean. meanwhile, beautiful day here once again…..an apology for yesterday 2 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TacomaWaWx Posted May 2, 2022 Report Share Posted May 2, 2022 Starting to get some sunbreaks here. 0.37” so far today and 53 degrees. Quote Tacoma WA elevation 300’ Monthly rainfall-3.56” Warm season rainfall-11.14” Max temp-88 +80 highs-2 +85 highs-2 +90 highs-0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cascadia_Wx Posted May 2, 2022 Report Share Posted May 2, 2022 4 minutes ago, Jginmartini said: Moab Opinion from locals - red dust sucks and blows everywhere! Winds are brutal here as well blowing the red dust! Experienced that yesterday. Impossible to keep the 4Runner clean here.!! Can’t imagine trying to keep outdoor furniture clean. meanwhile, beautiful day here once again…..an apology for yesterday Seems like every climate has its drawbacks 2 Quote Summer grows while Winter goes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted May 2, 2022 Report Share Posted May 2, 2022 48 and dribbles currently. .71” so far on the day. 1 1 Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chewbacca Defense Posted May 2, 2022 Report Share Posted May 2, 2022 36 minutes ago, TT-SEA said: Minnesota might go from endless winter right into the furnace next week... LMAO the sales guy I work with lives outside Minneapolis and has been whining about needing some warm weather for the last 3 months. We have been trying to get a sales conference schedule in L.A. since late February. Finally got it scheduled for........next week. Oh well, at least he will get some beach time. 2 Quote Britton Rd Bellingham Weather Station: https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KWABELLI103?cm_ven=localwx_pwsdash Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted May 2, 2022 Report Share Posted May 2, 2022 Control run completely did away with any ridging for next week... might avert a couple days without rain. 4 1 1 Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard777 Posted May 2, 2022 Report Share Posted May 2, 2022 15 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said: Seems like every climate has its drawbacks Exactly!!! 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RentonHill Posted May 2, 2022 Report Share Posted May 2, 2022 Very dark cloud popping up east of me and cool radar 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted May 2, 2022 Report Share Posted May 2, 2022 Here is the 12Z EPS run... still shows the pattern quieting down after this weekend. The control run is another story. Its comically wet for the next 15 days with basically no break. 3 1 1 Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RentonHill Posted May 2, 2022 Report Share Posted May 2, 2022 US Corn planting matching 2011 pace, not as bad as 2013. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phishy Wx Posted May 2, 2022 Report Share Posted May 2, 2022 45 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said: Seems like every climate has its drawbacks most perfect I can find is the Monterey Peninsula in CA, about 2 miles inland. Its so perfect that it sucks actually. 1 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Anti Marine Layer Posted May 2, 2022 Report Share Posted May 2, 2022 6 minutes ago, Phishy Wx said: most perfect I can find is the Monterey Peninsula in CA, about 2 miles inland. Its so perfect that it sucks actually. Summers are too cold there. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted May 2, 2022 Report Share Posted May 2, 2022 1 minute ago, TT-SEA said: Here is the 12Z EPS run... still shows the pattern quieting down after this weekend. The control run is another story. Its comically wet for the next 15 days with basically no break. Check out the individual solutions. They’re all over the place. Some have death ridges, others have deep troughs. Low predictability, for whatever reason. I think the GFS operational being such an extreme outlier has messed with our expectations a bit. That model has been falsely advertising these ridgy, blocked up patterns for weeks now, and the upcoming pattern is exactly the type that would exploit those problems. Not that the pattern won’t change. Most guidance seems to concur that it will, at least to some extent. But the GFS takes that and goes Amber Heard caliber crazy with it. 2 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted May 2, 2022 Report Share Posted May 2, 2022 13 minutes ago, Phil said: Check out the individual solutions. They’re all over the place. Some have death ridges, others have deep troughs. Low predictability, for whatever reason. I think the GFS operational being such an extreme outlier has messed with our expectations a bit. That model has been falsely advertising these ridgy, blocked up patterns for weeks now, and the upcoming pattern is exactly the type that would exploit those problems. Not that the pattern won’t change. Most guidance seems to concur that it will, at least to some extent. But the GFS takes that and goes Amber Heard caliber crazy with it. Sometimes a big pattern change becomes inevitable when you see wildly different solutions in the short and mid range end up in the same place regardless. The 12Z ECMWF and to larger extent the 12Z control run tells me this is not one of those times and a pattern change is far from inevitable right now. 3 Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TigerWoodsLibido Posted May 2, 2022 Report Share Posted May 2, 2022 50F with some light rain. What a great stretch of spring weather for here. This time last year we already had the AC in. Hopefully can keep the 90F+ football pictures in the QBs and some receivers. 4 1 Quote Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats: Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024) Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024) Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024) Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024) Total snowfall: 0.0" Total ice: 2.25” Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9") Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F) Last White Christmas: 1990 Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0 Personal Stats: Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F) Last White Christmas: 2008 Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0" Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4 Venmo GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2 My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope 24 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthHillFrosty Posted May 2, 2022 Report Share Posted May 2, 2022 Going to Anderson, Cali for a wedding this week. Looks to be 92 and sunny on Wednesday 1 2 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted May 2, 2022 Report Share Posted May 2, 2022 51 minutes ago, TT-SEA said: Sometimes a big pattern change becomes inevitable when you see wildly different solutions in the short and mid range end up in the same place regardless. The 12Z ECMWF and to larger extent the 12Z control run tells me this is not one of those times and a pattern change is far from inevitable right now. To some extent both of those solutions are still pattern changes. At least over the North Pacific. But that might not translate to meaningful weather changes in some regions. There’s also another CCKW type feature projected to cross the pacific in a week, so predictability might be low for awhile if it has any meaningful impact. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Omegaraptor Posted May 2, 2022 Report Share Posted May 2, 2022 1 minute ago, SouthHillFrosty said: Going to Anderson, Cali for a wedding this week. Looks to be 92 and sunny on Wednesday Somehow Redding airport finished April with a positive temp departure. One of the most impressive April cold snaps since probably the 1930s just to the north… and they can’t even manage a below average month out of it. Comical. 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NWbyNW Posted May 2, 2022 Report Share Posted May 2, 2022 It has been raining all morning. It recently turned into showers on and off. Thick cloud cover. Currently a warm-ish 52F, but it feels so much cooler. I'm liking the clouds and rain in this. Hopefully next Monday and beyond will have time to get rainier (Not Mt. Rainier) and cloudier! Loving this spring so far. Keep temps down. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted May 2, 2022 Report Share Posted May 2, 2022 46 minutes ago, NWbyNW said: It has been raining all morning. It recently turned into showers on and off. Thick cloud cover. Currently a warm-ish 52F, but it feels so much cooler. I'm liking the clouds and rain in this. Hopefully next Monday and beyond will have time to get rainier (Not Mt. Rainier) and cloudier! Loving this spring so far. Keep temps down. 62 would be crazy hot... very unusual for May. 1 Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Omegaraptor Posted May 2, 2022 Report Share Posted May 2, 2022 Hood Basin reporting 172% of normal snowpack. Probably going to be nearing or exceeding 200% by Monday. In most of OR and WA, drought is pretty much our last concern right now. Definitely a surplus year thus far. 1 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted May 2, 2022 Report Share Posted May 2, 2022 4 minutes ago, Omegaraptor said: Hood Basin reporting 172% of normal snowpack. Probably going to be nearing or exceeding 200% by Monday. In most of OR and WA, drought is pretty much our last concern right now. Definitely a surplus year thus far. This ^ 1 Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meatyorologist Posted May 2, 2022 Report Share Posted May 2, 2022 59 minutes ago, Omegaraptor said: Somehow Redding airport finished April with a positive temp departure. One of the most impressive April cold snaps since probably the 1930s just to the north… and they can’t even manage a below average month out of it. Comical. That’ll happen when your soil has zero moisture left and is effectively a massive heating blanket. That’s how the dust bowl worked in the 20s and 30s. 1 1 Quote Weather stats for MBY Snowfall: -Total snowfall since joining: 50.25" -2018-19: 21" -2019-20: 2.5" -2020-21: 13" -2021-22: 8.75" -2022-23: 5.75" -2023-24*: 0.25" -Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024 -Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021 -Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019 Temperatures: -Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021 -Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021 -Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phishy Wx Posted May 2, 2022 Report Share Posted May 2, 2022 Suppose to be 62 today, but temps dropped 4 degrees in the last hour from 53 to 49 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phishy Wx Posted May 2, 2022 Report Share Posted May 2, 2022 11 minutes ago, Omegaraptor said: Hood Basin reporting 172% of normal snowpack. Probably going to be nearing or exceeding 200% by Monday. In most of OR and WA, drought is pretty much our last concern right now. Definitely a surplus year thus far. except SE OR. Spokane somehow is still slightly below normal for the year in precip and was below normal in the valley on snow for the season Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted May 2, 2022 Report Share Posted May 2, 2022 5 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said: That’ll happen when your soil has zero moisture left and is effectively a massive heating blanket. That’s how the dust bowl worked in the 20s and 30s. Technically... Redding finished April slightly wetter than normal. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted May 2, 2022 Report Share Posted May 2, 2022 The GFS is still trying to backtrack that Aleutian TPV D4-5. But no other piece of guidance does that now. Not even the warm EPS members. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted May 2, 2022 Report Share Posted May 2, 2022 That thing right there. 18z GFS erroneously absorbs it back into the Aleutian Low, similar to early last month. 2 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phishy Wx Posted May 2, 2022 Report Share Posted May 2, 2022 13 minutes ago, Phishy Wx said: Suppose to be 62 today, but temps dropped 4 degrees in the last hour from 53 to 49 lol now down to 48 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BLI snowman Posted May 2, 2022 Report Share Posted May 2, 2022 Finally some showers popping up here. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted May 2, 2022 Report Share Posted May 2, 2022 12 minutes ago, Phil said: That thing right there. GFS erroneously absorbs it back into the Aleutian Low. Deja-vu all over again. Interestingly... the GEFS mean does the same thing. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
T-Town Posted May 2, 2022 Report Share Posted May 2, 2022 Wet on my morning walk, dry on my afternoon walk. 58 here now. Hoping warm and dry on Mother’s Day since are hosting and would be nice to get outside but that’s not looking too promising at this point. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted May 2, 2022 Report Share Posted May 2, 2022 26 minutes ago, TT-SEA said: Interestingly... the GEFS mean does the same thing. And they’re both probably wrong. Same was true a month ago. I have a hunch the GFS will cave soon (probably on the 00z run tonight) given how close we are in time to the divergence. Less than 4 days out now. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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