May Winter Continue 2022 PNW

[Phil]

Just now, Cascadia_Wx said:

The GEFS has a monthly? Can’t imagine it being much better than the CFS

It’s no EPS, that’s for sure. But it’s at least a little more consistent than the CFS (which really isn’t saying much, lol).

[RentonHill]

1 hour ago, MossMan said:

You want it? It’s my half brother in laws and they are selling it. Been stored at my place for years since they have no parking for it at their place. 

DM me some details…

[snow_wizard]

7 minutes ago, TacomaWaWx said:

39 here this morning and 38 yesterday morning. 54 and mostly clear here currently DP 40. 

My lows have sucked here with this cold snap until today's 37.  This area does great when it clears out though.

[snow_wizard]

3 minutes ago, ShawniganLake said:

We were blessed with an absolutely stunning day today. Mostly sunny and 61F with a nice breeze.  Thank you lord. 

It didn't rain!  Really lifted my spirits today.

[Brian_in_Leavenworth]

14 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

I wasn't aware of that either.  I would think it might have better skill than the CFS due to higher resolution.

I thought everyone knew that.  It gets posted here quite a bit during the winter.   Run every day off the 0Z runs.  And free on pivotalweather.com 

https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gefsens&p=500h_anom&rh=2022051000&fh=loop&r=na&dpdt=&mc=

[snow_wizard]

2 minutes ago, Brian_in_Leavenworth said:

I thought everyone knew that.  It gets posted here quite a bit during the winter.   Run every day off the 0Z runs.  And free on pivotalweather.com 

https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gefsens&p=500h_anom&rh=2022051000&fh=loop&r=na&dpdt=&mc=

I was just looking at it again....and yeah....I did know about it.  I thought they were talking about way out seasonal stuff.

BTW...I was in the Liberty area last weekend and it was insanely cold.  Just a way different year this time around.

[snow_wizard]

It has only reached 60+ two days here so far this month.  Pretty exceptional for May.

[ShawniganLake]

5 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

It didn't rain!  Really lifted my spirits today.

Everyone I crossed paths with today was in a great mood and commented on how nice it was to feel the suns warmth. 

[Anti Marine Layer]

13 minutes ago, ShawniganLake said:

Everyone I crossed paths with today was in a great mood and commented on how nice it was to feel the suns warmth. 

You probably did not cross paths with the person who has this in his signature.

[Cascadia_Wx]

1 minute ago, Mr Marine Layer said:

You probably did not cross paths with the person who has this in his signature.

I was out in the sun on a hike all day. Got a little sunburnt actually. It was a nice day.

[Brian_in_Leavenworth]

26 minutes ago, Brian_in_Leavenworth said:

I thought everyone knew that.  It gets posted here quite a bit during the winter.   Run every day off the 0Z runs.  And free on pivotalweather.com 

https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gefsens&p=500h_anom&rh=2022051000&fh=loop&r=na&dpdt=&mc=

We're still getting freezing temps overnight.   Just doesn't feel like May.  But great to still see snow on the mountains around us.

[Meatyorologist]

The way I see it, we're making up for that really dry ridgy mid Jan-late Mar period.

And I swear to god if a certain someone quotes this with rainfall statistics, I will pry open my own eyes and rub into them a handful of powdered glass.

Yes, I am aware we ended up "above normal." But no, the two weekends where AR's poured an entire month's average did not provide the same ecological benefit as a steady consistent supply of light precipitation. You know, climo.

[RentonHill]

1 minute ago, Meatyorologist said:

The way I see it, we're making up for that really dry ridgy mid Jan-late Mar period.

And I swear to god if a certain someone quotes this with rainfall statistics, I will pry open my own eyes and rub into them a handful of powdered glass.

Yes, I am aware we ended up "above normal." But no, the two weekends where AR's poured an entire month's average did not provide the same ecological benefit as a steady consistent supply of light precipitation. You know, climo.

[Meatyorologist]

2 minutes ago, RentonHillTC said:

lol it came out way more angry sounding than i intended....  maybe i need less coffee 

[TacomaWaWx]

11 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

The way I see it, we're making up for that really dry ridgy mid Jan-late Mar period.

And I swear to god if a certain someone quotes this with rainfall statistics, I will pry open my own eyes and rub into them a handful of powdered glass.

Yes, I am aware we ended up "above normal." But no, the two weekends where AR's poured an entire month's average did not provide the same ecological benefit as a steady consistent supply of light precipitation. You know, climo.

Every month would be better if it rained 10 inches in a day then was dry the rest of the month. Just get it out of the way all at once. 

[RentonHill]

5 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

lol it came out way more angry sounding than i intended....  maybe i need less coffee 

I find myself angrier than ever these days. Lack of sleep and excessive stimulants will do that to a man. We were roasting s’mores tonight with my 4 year old and he just ate the marshmallow off his stick without sticking it in the fire and I just about threw the whole bag into the flames to teach his a** a lesson

[Meatyorologist]

Just now, RentonHillTC said:

I find myself angrier than ever these days. Lack of sleep and excessive stimulants will do that to a man. We were roasting s’mores tonight with my 4 year old and he just ate the marshmallow off his stick without sticking it in the fire and I just about threw the whole bag into the flames to teach his a** a lesson

inexcusable! no marshmallow should ever be disrespected like that... 

[Phil]

2 minutes ago, RentonHillTC said:

I find myself angrier than ever these days. Lack of sleep and excessive stimulants will do that to a man. We were roasting s’mores tonight with my 4 year old and he just ate the marshmallow off his stick without sticking it in the fire and I just about threw the whole bag into the flames to teach his a** a lesson

I’ve been awake 45hrs straight cramming for exams. I feel you.

About to doze off now.  

[TacomaWaWx]

Just now, Phil said:

I’ve been awake 45hrs straight cramming for exams. I feel you.

I’ve been awake for 46 hours. 

[TT-SEA]

13 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

The way I see it, we're making up for that really dry ridgy mid Jan-late Mar period.

And I swear to god if a certain someone quotes this with rainfall statistics, I will pry open my own eyes and rub into them a handful of powdered glass.

Yes, I am aware we ended up "above normal." But no, the two weekends where AR's poured an entire month's average did not provide the same ecological benefit as a steady consistent supply of light precipitation. You know, climo.

Dude.    Getting a little intense!

And does it really matter how the rain comes in the winter when everything is dormant.   I swear some of you think our trees cannot survive without being inundated every single day. 

[Phil]

Just now, TacomaWaWx said:

I’ve been awake for 46 hours. 

Better take a clonazepam! 

[Phil]

00z GFS keeps the fun going into late May!

Much faster retrograde this run. Ridge doesn’t even have time to establish before it’s offshore again.

[RentonHill]

6 minutes ago, TacomaWaWx said:

I’ve been awake for 46 hours. 

cheers my Zero sleep brethren. I can feel the advil PM and cheap wine flowing through my veins…my time for sleep has almost come. 

[Front Ranger]

1 hour ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

I was out in the sun on a hike all day. Got a little sunburnt actually. It was a nice day.

Vitamin d/carcinogenic rays!!

[Front Ranger]

27 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

The way I see it, we're making up for that really dry ridgy mid Jan-late Mar period.

And I swear to god if a certain someone quotes this with rainfall statistics, I will pry open my own eyes and rub into them a handful of powdered glass.

Yes, I am aware we ended up "above normal." But no, the two weekends where AR's poured an entire month's average did not provide the same ecological benefit as a steady consistent supply of light precipitation. You know, climo.

But...it was weekends.

[TacomaWaWx]

1 minute ago, Front Ranger said:

Vitamin d/carcinogenic rays!!

Hard choice…carcinogenic rays or Andrews “SATANIC” rainfall. 

[snow_wizard]

Thursday and Thursday night are looking especially chilly right now.  Rain and a very cool air mass keep the daytime max way below normal and then it clears out gets into the 30s that night.

[Front Ranger]

19 minutes ago, TacomaWaWx said:

I’ve been awake for 46 hours. 

 

19 minutes ago, Phil said:

I’ve been awake 45hrs straight cramming for exams. I feel you.

About to doze off now.  

I'd expect these posts during an epic winter event.

And is it just me or has Phil been in college for 12 years?

[snow_wizard]

17 minutes ago, Phil said:

Better take a clonazepam! 

After being awake for 46 hours that would probably knock you on your azz.  Great anti anxiety med.

[snow_wizard]

18 minutes ago, Phil said:

00z GFS keeps the fun going into late May!

Much faster retrograde this run. Ridge doesn’t even have time to establish before it’s offshore again.

Classic recurring cold trough scenario.  Been a long time.

[TacomaWaWx]

3 minutes ago, Front Ranger said:

 

I'd expect these posts during an epic winter event.

And is it just me or has Phil been in college for 12 years?

I blame the humidity mostly for the slow progress. 

[TT-SEA]

Improvement on the GFS for the weekend... might not be a washout.   

And I do like the idea of parking a cold trough over the middle of the country... hope that holds 

[Phil]

5 minutes ago, Front Ranger said:

 

I'd expect these posts during an epic winter event.

And is it just me or has Phil been in college for 12 years?

7 years.

I had a change of heart and switched degree programs. Whether it was the right decision or not..remains to be seen.

[Phil]

1 minute ago, TT-SEA said:

Improvement on the GFS for the weekend... might not be a washout.   

And I do like the idea of parking a cold trough over the middle of the country... hope that holds 

It won’t hold. At least not for long.

[Phil]

This CCKW and global +MT should try to push things eastward a bit next week.

But AAM removal and return to EHEM/Indo convection is right on its heels.  Flash in the pan.

[TT-SEA]

1 hour ago, ShawniganLake said:

We were blessed with an absolutely stunning day today. Mostly sunny and 61F with a nice breeze.  Thank you lord. 

The great bounty and blessings of our Lord Jesus Christ and Savior... the gift of life-giving sunshine to grow our food and provide nourishment.    Praise the almighty.  

[TT-SEA]

9 minutes ago, Phil said:

It won’t hold. At least not for long.

No kidding.   I am just riding this out until July.   Anything we get... even for a few hours like today... is a bonus.   

[The Blob]

46 minutes ago, TacomaWaWx said:

Every month would be better if it rained 10 inches in a day then was dry the rest of the month. Just get it out of the way all at once. 

[Phil]

The monster is waking up.

 

[Omegaraptor]

42 minutes ago, Phil said:

00z GFS keeps the fun going into late May!

Much faster retrograde this run. Ridge doesn’t even have time to establish before it’s offshore again.

Looks much more like typical spring troughing than near-record cold though?