May Winter Continue 2022 PNW

[Anti Marine Layer]

3 hours ago, Phil said:

The monster is waking up.

 

Send some of his hot breath to the PNW

[MossMan]

39 minutes ago, Phil said:

The monster is waking up.

 

It’s coming! 

[TT-SEA]

ECMWF shows rain moving through on Saturday morning and Sunday afternoon... but the temps get into the 60s both days with southerly flow and there is some sunshine as well.  No c-zone or temps in the 40s with the trough spinning around offshore.   A warmer version of a wet pattern.     

And Monday looks really nice as everything lifts north a bit.    

[Cascadia_Wx]

00z EPS shows more normal spring troughing going forward, but still keeps things near to below average overall 

[Cascadia_Wx]

Low of 37 so far this morning. Scattered clouds kept things just a little too warm for frost 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Looks like we hit 34 this morning.

[TT-SEA]

The trees still aren't at full maturity leaf out yet... everything is green and leafed out but its not that completely full look yet.   And it doesn't seem like much has changed since last week thanks to very cold trough parked over us for the last several days.   This is the slowest progression I have ever seen... even 2011 finished faster.     The trees have been in the leaf out process for almost 2 months now and still not done.    Strange deal... sufficiently warm during winter to get the trees started in March and then basically winter-like weather since which makes for a snail's pace.   In Minnesota they are going from totally bare last week to fully leafed out this week... takes a few days to do what has taken 2 months here. 

I think its pretty likely that the trees will hold their leaves much longer this coming fall and the fall color should be pretty spectacular.   That was true in 2008 for sure.     On the other end of the spectrum... 2016 was the earliest leaf out I have seen here and the trees were yellowing and losing leaves in August despite it being a fairly wet summer (over 8 inches of rain in JJA in the Snoqualmie Valley that summer).  

[AlTahoe]

New may monthly record low set for South lake Tahoe. 12.9F the old record was 13.1F in 1974. 

[Anti Marine Layer]

1 hour ago, AlTahoe said:

New may monthly record low set for South lake Tahoe. 12.9F the old record was 13.1F in 1974. 

Wow!

Also, never knew that the records went down to the tenths.

[Phishy Wx]

18 hours ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

That's probably the downside of working from home. If you went to work 4-5 days a week, what it was doing in your specific rainy location, would be less relevant and less annoying. 

nothing is worth going to a crappy office for.  WFH for Life!

[Meatyorologist]

1 hour ago, TT-SEA said:

The trees still aren't at full maturity leaf out yet... everything is green and leafed out but its not that completely full look yet.   And it doesn't seem like much has changed since last week thanks to very cold trough parked over us for the last several days.   This is the slowest progression I have ever seen... even 2011 finished faster.     The trees have been in the leaf out process for almost 2 months now and still not done.    Strange deal... sufficiently warm during winter to get the trees started in March and then basically winter-like weather since which makes for a snail's pace.   In Minnesota they are going from totally bare last week to fully leafed out this week... takes a few days to do what has taken 2 months here. 

I think its pretty likely that the trees will hold their leaves much longer this coming fall and the fall color should be pretty spectacular.   That was true in 2008 for sure.     On the other end of the spectrum... 2016 was the earliest leaf out I have seen here and the trees were yellowing and losing leaves in August despite it being a fairly wet summer (over 8 inches of rain in JJA in the Snoqualmie Valley that summer).  

June 2021?

[RentonHill]

need some new shorts

[SilverFallsAndrew]

1 hour ago, Phishy Wx said:

nothing is worth going to a crappy office for.  WFH for Life!

I like getting out of the house a few days a week. If I lived alone I would probably like working from home more. 

Edited May 11, 2022 by SilverFallsAndrew

[MossMan]

Now this looks more like May…Though it is quite the chilly breeze right now and the landscape color is behind. 

Edited May 11, 2022 by MossMan

[TT-SEA]

41 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

June 2021?

No idea.    Definitely related to April 2022 as well.

[Deweydog]

A month ago right now it was snowing harder than usual.  A month from right now is my niece’s birthday.

[lowlandsnow]

What's the record low max on Thursday at Seatac?

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Next week is looking pretty troughy/cool again on the GFS, but it doesn't look very wet, just some light showers at times. 

[MossMan]

35 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Next week is looking pretty troughy/cool again on the GFS, but it doesn't look very wet, just some light showers at times. 

I’m good with cool and some showers here and there but it would be nice to dry out just a little up here. 

[Phil]

3 hours ago, TT-SEA said:

The trees still aren't at full maturity leaf out yet... everything is green and leafed out but its not that completely full look yet.   And it doesn't seem like much has changed since last week thanks to very cold trough parked over us for the last several days.   This is the slowest progression I have ever seen... even 2011 finished faster.     The trees have been in the leaf out process for almost 2 months now and still not done.    Strange deal... sufficiently warm during winter to get the trees started in March and then basically winter-like weather since which makes for a snail's pace.   In Minnesota they are going from totally bare last week to fully leafed out this week... takes a few days to do what has taken 2 months here. 

I think its pretty likely that the trees will hold their leaves much longer this coming fall and the fall color should be pretty spectacular.   That was true in 2008 for sure.     On the other end of the spectrum... 2016 was the earliest leaf out I have seen here and the trees were yellowing and losing leaves in August despite it being a fairly wet summer (over 8 inches of rain in JJA in the Snoqualmie Valley that summer).  

Opposite here. We had a slow start then kaboom. Everything fully mature now except elms and sycamores.

And still almost no humidity to speak of. I know it’s inevitable but this pattern has been great for bottling that crap down in the south. 

[T-Town]

1 hour ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

I like getting out of the house a few days a week. If I lived alone I would probably like working from home more. 

Full time WFH became a thing after my kids were grown and mostly out of the house. My commute has always been 60-90 minutes each way, so going to the office has always been a hassle. But,  for people with small children at home and/or an easier commute, I can see the attraction of going to the office. 

[Phil]

3 hours ago, AlTahoe said:

New may monthly record low set for South lake Tahoe. 12.9F the old record was 13.1F in 1974. 

1974 was also part of a 3 year Niña.

Probably not a coincidence.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

6 minutes ago, T-Town said:

Full time WFH became a thing after my kids were grown and mostly out of the house. My commute has always been 60-90 minutes each way, so going to the office has always been a hassle. But,  for people with small children at home and/or an easier commute, I can see the attraction of going to the office. 

Yeah, working from home is nice in some ways. There were periods during the pandemic I was doing it 100% of the time. One of my goals when I got this job 8 years ago was to work one day a week from home. I have small children so that does make it tough too, it's tough when my wife is home because it's hard to see her dealing with the kids and not help, if I stop work to help then I'm not productive, if I don't stop working then I feel I'm letting my family down. On the other hand my wife's maternity leave ends at the end of May, so I will be working from home again twice a week starting in June. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

15 minutes ago, Phil said:

1974 was also part of a 3 year Niña.

Probably not a coincidence.

The three year Ninas of the 70s and 90s were not good for lowland winter weather in NW Oregon. Arguably this one has already been better...

[Thunder98]

I want an el nino!

[BLI snowman]

46 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

The three year Ninas of the 70s and 90s were not good for lowland winter weather in NW Oregon. Arguably this one has already been better...

We've had 10"+ snowfall in each of the last two winters here.

I don't think we even exceeded 6" here locally in any of the 1973-76 or 1998-01 winters. 

[Phil]

3 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

We've had 10"+ snowfall in each of the last two winters here.

I don't think we even exceeded 6" here locally in any of the 1973-76 or 1998-01 winters. 

The one in the 1950s was top notch, though. 

[Phil]

The 12z GEFS and Canadian ensembles both trended towards a more troughy, dynamic pattern for week-2.  

[SilverFallsAndrew]

8 minutes ago, Phil said:

The 12z GEFS and Canadian ensembles both trended towards a more troughy, dynamic pattern for week-2.  

Next week really doesn't look like a washout though. Days like yesterday and today sprinkled in will be nice, still solid negative departures, but lots of sun. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Looks like K-Falls smashed their record low this morning, they hit 21, previous record was 24 set in 1909, 1916, and 2014. 

[TT-SEA]

10 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Next week really doesn't look like a washout though. Days like yesterday and today sprinkled in will be nice, still solid negative departures, but lots of sun. 

Wednesday and Thursday look really wet and cold on the 12Z ECMWF.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

3 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Wednesday and Thursday look really wet and cold on the 12Z ECMWF.

I'll have to check that out. 

[Front Ranger]

13 hours ago, Phil said:

The monster is waking up.

 

Not a fan of this pattern. Gonna be close to 90 here today.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Preliminary #'s from Silver Falls show it being the 5th coldest April in the POR. 2011, 2008, 1975, and 1955 were all colder. Looks like it was the 3rd April on record to have an average max temp below 50. Looks like our average high here at home was exactly the same as at the park, 49.8. 

[BLI snowman]

2 minutes ago, Phil said:

The one in the 1950s was top notch, though. 

Yep, 1954-55 wasn't a blockbuster by any stretch but it did manage a number of decent small events in the area. And the next couple years were all-timers. 

[Omegaraptor]

46 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Looks like K-Falls smashed their record low this morning, they hit 21, previous record was 24 set in 1909, 1916, and 2014. 

All three of those were preceded by very very cold winters. The first two also preceded very very cold winters.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

2 hours ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

The three year Ninas of the 70s and 90s were not good for lowland winter weather in NW Oregon. Arguably this one has already been better...

10" of snow this past December is better than anything that happened here in either of those stretches, plus we had the really cold Feb airmass too this time around.

[TacomaWaWx]

58 here after a low of 39. Nice day yet again. 

[TacomaWaWx]

Euro shows another inch of rain over the next week…with close to an inch in the 7-10 day range. The patterns a bit warmer than what we’ve seen recently but the overall wet theme continues. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

2 minutes ago, TacomaWaWx said:

Euro shows another inch of rain over the next week…with close to an inch in the 7-10 day range. The patterns a bit warmer than what we’ve seen recently but the overall wet theme continues. 

Showing about 3.5" here.