August 2022 PNW Observations and Discussion - 1956 Redux!1!!1!

[Rubus Leucodermis]

4 hours ago, Jginmartini said:

Still haven’t seen one on all my journeys down south and I’ve spent plenty of time in their environment. One hike I even looked for them among the crevices of rock.  In Havasu when I checked into my cabin the door was open…..first thought was open invitation for snakes.  Went in with my flashlight checking everything.  Lol, at 3am when I had to use the restroom about 200 yards away I was definitely on snake alert as well and checked all corners of the restroom.  Cool creatures but I hate the dance they make you do when surprised by them 

If you’ve done any hiking in rattlesnake country you have probably been within a few feet of one at least once. They are well-camouflaged and by natural tendency shy and timid.

[Rubus Leucodermis]

13 hours ago, Frontal Snowsquall said:

Wow that's a nice size too. I don't like snakes but I understand they're an important part of the ecosystem. If they overpopulate then it's not good though. Do you live in an area with a lot of them around?

I love snakes (always have, loved lingering in the snake house in the zoo as a child, thought they were beautiful and fascinating, couldn’t understand why so many other people found them creepy and hurried through).

If there’s a lot of rattlesnakes in an area, that typically means there is a lot of rattlesnake food (rodents) in that area. Many areas of Western North America would be overrun with rodents were it not for snakes. This is also why snakes can hang around houses and other inhabited areas: the house is attracting rodents, and the rodents are attracting snakes. Solution is to address the rodent problem, typically by excluding them.

[Cascadia_Wx]

Some nice improvements on the 12z runs. I don’t trust for a minute they will hold though.

[TacomaWx]

Already up to 75 here. 

[Cascadia_Wx]

Some good news for smoke and wildfire enthusiasts though. The 12z Euro finally manages to get us back to a favorable pattern by the end of the run.

[Kayla]

10 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

Some good news for smoke and wildfire enthusiasts though. The 12z Euro finally manages to get us back to a favorable pattern by the end of the run.

It does seem like things are trending in such a way that the GOA low slowly weakens and retrogrades which then of course pops a west coast ridge. Hopefully things continue to retrograde from there.

[Cascadia_Wx]

1 minute ago, Kayla said:

It does seem like things are trending in such a way that the GOA low slowly weakens and retrogrades which then of course pops a west coast ridge. Hopefully things continue to retrograde from there.

Would be nice to avoid yet another strong ridge. Although an offshore ridge with cold troughs dropping to our east (over you, essentially) is probably one of the last patterns we want. Some cool onshore flow would be nice.

[Cascadia_Wx]

3 hours ago, TacomaWx said:

Much better than 1 year ago right now…well 8/14/21. 

 

The suicide inducing wet spring has given us a good buffer, at least so far.

[Deweydog]

35 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

Some good news for smoke and wildfire enthusiasts though. The 12z Euro finally manages to get us back to a favorable pattern by the end of the run.

Trying hard fur a Monday.

[Cascadia_Wx]

8 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

Trying hard fur a Monday.

Gotta keep up with you

[Cloud]

15 hours ago, Mr Marine Layer said:

California fire update?

Unless you know, you want to join us and become the PNW. 

[GobBluth]

1 hour ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

Some nice improvements on the 12z runs. I don’t trust for a minute they will hold though.

Only improvement I see is that when pattern reverts to the big ridge, the 850s don't get to the 25c range.

[Cascadia_Wx]

10 minutes ago, GobBluth said:

Only improvement I see is that when pattern reverts to the big ridge, the 850s don't get to the 25c range.

I’m not just talking about the ridge itself. All runs looked cooler overall for the next 7 days.

[Cloud]

GFS and Euro are too far apart to know for sure if Thurs will guarantee an 11th 90 day a SEA.  

[Cascadia_Wx]

Full 12z EPS 

[The Blob]

In coming Costco fall warning shot.

[Meatyorologist]

41 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

Full 12z EPS 

A bit of a signal for a Fall entrance at the end but the mean is still above normal.

[Deweydog]

Jan from Toyota just said summer is almost over. I concur with her assessment.

[RentonHill]

3 hours ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

I love snakes (always have, loved lingering in the snake house in the zoo as a child, thought they were beautiful and fascinating, couldn’t understand why so many other people found them creepy and hurried through).

If there’s a lot of rattlesnakes in an area, that typically means there is a lot of rattlesnake food (rodents) in that area. Many areas of Western North America would be overrun with rodents were it not for snakes. This is also why snakes can hang around houses and other inhabited areas: the house is attracting rodents, and the rodents are attracting snakes. Solution is to address the rodent problem, typically by excluding them.

We have a terrible rodent problem here since it’s not occupied full time. We literally can’t put out enough traps. We’re dumping buckets full of em every time we come up. We aren’t actively seeking out the snakes and will leave em be if we come across them in the orchards or on the road. But they love to come out onto the big warm concrete patio after dusk and that ain’t gonna fly. Maybe one day we’ll be comfortable enough to just catch and re locate but we’re still wussies here. 

[TacomaWx]

80 here #19 this year. 

[TacomaWx]

2 hours ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

The suicide inducing wet spring has given us a good buffer, at least so far.

Getting a little rain in early July helped too. Faucet was completely shut off in mid June of last year it lingered a little longer this year. Not sure if how widespread the precip that was associated with the storms last week was but that’s probably helped a little despite starting a few fires too. 

[Front Ranger]

On 8/14/2022 at 2:41 PM, snow_wizard said:

Just saying this hasn't felt like it's part of a possible record warm August.  Been very comfortable except for two days so far.  I realize that is probably going to change very soon.

If it ends up being a record warm August at OLM, I will fly out there and film myself doing 1,000 pushups on the tarmac.

By the way, their record warm August came in 1967. Second warmest was 1981.

[Blizzard777]

1 hour ago, Deweydog said:

Jan from Toyota just said summer is almost over. I concur with her assessment.

I’m currently waiting on my 4Runner at Toyota dealership.  No talk of snow or weather  

[TigerWoodsLibido]

And that's another 90F burger!!

[Meatyorologist]

18z GFS fantasy range is awesome

[NWbyNW]

5 hours ago, Mr Marine Layer said:

When did you ask me?

Awhile ago.  I will try to find it.

[NWbyNW]

On 8/3/2022 at 8:54 PM, NWbyNW said:

What are you angry about on my wildfire post @Mr Marine Layer?  Do you want me to include California in my updates for you? I can do that if it helps you out some. 

Here is is, @Mr Marine Layer.

[TacomaWx]

38 minutes ago, NWbyNW said:

Awhile ago.  I will try to find it.

You really shouldn’t worry about anything he has to say

[TacomaWx]

83/55 today. 

[RentonHill]

48 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

18z GFS fantasy range is awesome

[NWbyNW]

WILDFIRE UPDATE

Let's do this again...

NEW Known Wildfires started today! 8/15/22  

Washington - 9 (9 new fires in the state. Many new fires started in the southeastern corner of the State due to lightning strikes.  These are expected to be put out quickly by crews from Clarkston.  There are four large fires in the state.  Several fires have been put out, including all the new fires from yesterday. The total increases from 42 to 46.  This is the first time so far that WA has more fires than OR this fire season.) Total: 46

Oregon - 3 (3 new fires in the state. There are three large fires in the state. The total of fires drops from 45 to 40.) Total: 40

Idaho - 1 (1 new fires in the state.  The 'Ra 7 Mhrfpa Fire' fire was put out after spreading fast yesterday. Eyes remain on the cluster of lightning induced fires in the St. Joe National Forest. Growth potential is possible as there is plenty of fuel to expand. We got from three to four large fires in the state. The total number fires grows from 25 to 26.) Total: 26

California - 31 (Thirty one new fires in the state of California, most occurring in the mountains around the LA Metro area, the Sierra Nevada's and a cluster south of the Bay Area.  Fires are very low for California, especially this time of year. There are currently six large fires in the state, with four in northern California, and two in Central California. There are 60 wildfires burning in the state.) Total: 60

British Columbia - 54 (BC Fire Mapping is broken, so take these numbers with a gray of salt.  Know there is truth in them, but also some errors. A large fire north of Prince Rupert has been put out. This brings to total big fires in the province down to five. The total amount of fires in the province is 145.) Total: 145

Who Has had The Most Amount of Fires (Ranked by days in which they've had the most fires, only counting days we've kept track here.)

1. British Columbia - 21 days with the most wildfires

2. Oregon - 2 days with the most wildfires.

SMOKE UPDATE

Besides isolated areas within some BC valleys, around Wenatchee, and near La Pine, smoke is mostly aloft and out of the breathing air for the populace of the Pacific Northwest. Smoke is mostly aloft over Montana.

The story is not as good for California with fires producing a lot of smoke.  Southward winds are pushing smoke into populated places.  All of California's northern counties are seeing reduced visibility due to smoke.  Air quality is hazardous to moderate from Weaverville, to Redding, to Chico, and parts of Sacramento's metro. Air quality is declining through Napa Valley and the eastern portions of the Bay Area from Vallejo to San Martin. Higher elevations in the southern part of the state are seeing moderate air quality and lower visibility due to smoke, but lowland areas are seeing mostly clean air, though this can vary to moderate throughout the day. 

[NWbyNW]

7 minutes ago, TacomaWx said:

You really shouldn’t worry about anything he has to say

Unless he is pulling my leg, I try to take everyone seriously.  I did include California for them in the latest wildfire/smoke report.  It's a lot to include honestly, so I don't know if I will do it all the time. Big state. 

[Rubus Leucodermis]

86/59 here today.

[Phil]

 

[snow_wizard]

1 hour ago, RentonHillTC said:

A high of 60 on Aug 29 would be pretty epic.  I think a notable cool period is going to happen in the early autumn, but we'll have to see if it happens that soon or not.

[snow_wizard]

45 minutes ago, Phil said:

 

It will be quite interesting to see how that effects things going forward.  I hope it doesn't mess up our prospects for this winter.

[Phil]

1 minute ago, snow_wizard said:

It will be quite interesting to see how that effects things going forward.  I hope it doesn't mess up our prospects for this winter.

It could definitely throw a wrench into things. Only time will tell.

[snow_wizard]

3 hours ago, Front Ranger said:

If it ends up being a record warm August at OLM, I will fly out there and film myself doing 1,000 pushups on the tarmac.

By the way, their record warm August came in 1967. Second warmest was 1981.

1967 was just flat out ugly.  Just looking at the month overall I'd take this one....at least so far.

[snow_wizard]

Just now, Phil said:

It could definitely throw a wrench into things. Only time will tell.

I suppose it could actually help for all we know.  It would royally suck if this had been the winter we had been waiting for and this took it away from us.  We would have no way of knowing that though.

[Phil]

4 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

I suppose it could actually help for all we know.  It would royally suck if this had been the winter we had been waiting for and this took it away from us.  We would have no way of knowing that though.

Yeah I can think of ways it could both help and hurt. Impossible to know at this point.