August 2022 PNW Observations and Discussion - 1956 Redux!1!!1!

[NWbyNW]

Just hit 80F here in Everett today after sitting at 79F for the past hour. Pure blue sky. 

[Deweydog]

8 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Not sure what to make of the 12Z ECMWF for tomorrow.   It shows the mid level clouds shoved off just to the east but there will be lots of high clouds.   And even with the extensive high cloud cover being shown... the ECMWF is saying 100 at PDX tomorrow.   

A high of 88 will in turn be pretty……. 

[BLI snowman]

16 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

Will have to bump this one later next week.

They definitely might not see another 90s day.

100 today and tomorrow and 80s on Friday.

[Kayla]

24 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

Depending on how they play their HC hand, PDX may not see another 90 veggie burger until the middle of next week at the earliest.

Sooo 100 today AND tomorrow??

[Deweydog]

1 minute ago, Kayla said:

Sooo 100 today AND tomorrow??

I wish…

[Deweydog]

6 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

They definitely might not see another 90s day.

100 today and tomorrow and 80s on Friday.

Willing to bet your manhood on that?

[Kayla]

Just now, Deweydog said:

I wish…

You’ve gotten a cold bias in your old age.

[SnowWillarrive]

19 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Not sure what to make of the 12Z ECMWF for tomorrow.   It shows the mid level clouds shoved off just to the east but there will be lots of high clouds.   And even with the extensive high cloud cover being shown... the ECMWF is saying 100 at PDX tomorrow.   

The Euro just assumes PDX is 100 by default this summer.

[BLI snowman]

2 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

Willing to bet your manhood on that?

I'll bet whatever remains of Fill's, post-castration.

[Deweydog]

5 minutes ago, Kayla said:

You’ve gotten a cold bias in your old age.

Mark Nelsen does NOT approve.

In all seriousness, I’d go with 95 at PDX tomorrow but it’s a crapshoot.

[TT-SEA]

3 minutes ago, SnowWillarrive said:

The Euro just assumes PDX is 100 by default this summer.

Seems too high for sure.   But the ECMWF tends to paint high clouds too extensively.  The WRF gives a better idea of what the satellite will probably look like tomorrow.  Looks like more of an issue down there than up here.   

[BLI snowman]

2 minutes ago, SnowWillarrive said:

The Euro just assumes PDX is 100 by default this summer.

Generally if there is a potential warm weather benchmark (80, 90, or 100) with even modest odds looming above PDX's head, it is a safe bet that they will hit it.

Last two days are a nice example with the even 90 readings, as was last week with its nice round 100 while Vancouver and Hillsboro were 99.

 

[Rubus Leucodermis]

26 minutes ago, Mr Marine Layer said:

Touchdown

Torchdown.

[Deweydog]

5 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

I'll bet whatever remains of Fill's, post-castration.

I left the jewels.

[snow_wizard]

The 18z GFS is fully on board for a month end cool spell.  A lot of runs of a lot of models are hinting at it now.

[TT-SEA]

2 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

The 18z GFS is fully on board for a month end cool spell.  A lot of runs of a lot of models are hinting at it now.

Way too amplified... very unlikely to happen like that.     EPS and GEFS don't show anything like that.

I am guessing the models are trying to pick up on something and struggling... but the reality will probably be more like what the EPS control run is showing with a quick break down and then another ridge. 

 

[The Swamp]

Hints and hints of hints.  This should be a spectacular November/December loading up soon.

[TT-SEA]

89 at SEA... should pick up #11 today and maybe then tie the all time record tomorrow.  

[Rubus Leucodermis]

3 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Way too amplified... very unlikely to happen like that.     EPS and GEFS don't show anything like that.

 

[TacomaWx]

85 here 12th +85 this year. We had 13 last year so we will surpass 2021 for +85 and +90 days overall. 

[ShawniganLake]

59 minutes ago, TacomaWx said:

Wow just 84 here. 

Yea it’s hot here today. Closest station to my house is showing 94F now.  Glad I brought frozen water bottles to work with me today. 

[TacomaWx]

2015 +80s-40 +85s-19 +90s-5

2021 +80s-35 +85s-13 +90s-5

2022 +80s-20 +85s-12 +90s-7

2022 is definitely gonna be up there for my location. 

[bainbridgekid]

Could still be a rounding error, but SEA is reporting 90 degrees. If that holds tomorrow should tie the all time record of twelve 90+ degree days.

[Rubus Leucodermis]

1 minute ago, ShawniganLake said:

Yea it’s hot here today. Closest station to my house is showing 94F now.  Glad I brought frozen water bottles to work with me today. 

87°F in East Van presently. Not looking forward to the bike ride home from Downtown.

[Phishy Wx]

f'ing 98 out.  gross

[GobBluth]

Take the over on tonight's lows...

[Cascadia_Wx]

1 minute ago, GobBluth said:

Take the over on tonight's lows...

Overnight?

[TT-SEA]

21 minutes ago, bainbridgekid said:

Could still be a rounding error, but SEA is reporting 90 degrees. If that holds tomorrow should tie the all time record of twelve 90+ degree days.

Down to 88 there now... suspense is building.    Was it enough for a 90?   We will know in about 12 minutes. 

[T-Town]

9 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Down to 88 there now... suspense is building.    Was it enough for a 90?   We will know in about 12 minutes. 

 

[BLI snowman]

15 minutes ago, GobBluth said:

Take the over on tonight's lows...

Should clear back out just in time for the hundo tomorrow.

[Deweydog]

1 hour ago, MossMan said:

A friend of mine was in that movie! 

Released on December 7, 2001. A day that will live in infamy.

Analog???

[Seattle]

Officially a 90 burger at KSEA!! On to 12 tomorrow.

[TT-SEA]

Officially 90 for a high at SEA!

[Omegaraptor]

100 in the boro!!!

[TT-SEA]

[Deweydog]

1 minute ago, Omegaraptor said:

100 in the boro!!!

101

[TacomaWx]

3 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Looks pretty likely that we will pass 2015s record next week. I bet we pass this years new +90 record before the end of the decade too. 

[Timmy Supercell]

6 minutes ago, Omegaraptor said:

100 in the boro!!!

How many of those this summer?

[TacomaWx]

85/57 here today. 

[T-Town]

1 minute ago, TacomaWx said:

85/57 here today. 

It was 84 here by 2 pm or so but we topped out at 85 as well. Nice and breezy so pretty pleasant. 

[Meatyorologist]

I'm not trying to pull a full on weenie here, but it is definitely encouraging to see LR maps converge on large GOA ridging and classic slider-type hammer dropping setups as the ridiculous summer ridging feedback loops end and the NH wet season circulation re-emerges. Kind of like a snapshot into what we may see a lot of this winter.

[T-Town]

17 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

You screencapped that tweet at 21 seconds old. You win the Internet for the day. 

[TT-SEA]

A summer with analog years of 1999, 2001, and 2011 has no business breaking heat records from 2015.    But here we are.

[Doinko]

1 minute ago, Meatyorologist said:

I'm not trying to pull a full on weenie here, but it is definitely encouraging to see LR maps converge on large GOA ridging and classic slider-type hammer dropping setups as the ridiculous summer ridging feedback loops end and the NH wet season circulation re-emerges. Kind of like a snapshot into what we may see a lot of this winter.

I think there was a mention of a -PNA signal in November from the JMA in one of the East of the Rockies topics. November 1985 + 1955!!!

[TT-SEA]

1 minute ago, T-Town said:

You screencapped that tweet at 21 seconds old. You win the Internet for the day. 

I just noticed that before you mentioned it.

[Timmy Supercell]

1 minute ago, TT-SEA said:

A summer with analog years of 1999, 2001, and 2011 has no business breaking heat records from 2015.    But here we are.

El Nino is the new Nina. And maybe Lake Mead will then stop revealing more bodies.

[Meatyorologist]

2 minutes ago, Doiinko said:

I think there was a mention of a -PNA signal in November from the JMA in one of the East of the Rockies topics. November 1985 + 1955!!!

November is an interesting month teleconnectively... Patterns during that month are often reversed entirely from ENSO climo. Pretty reliably warm during -ENSO, and often chilly during +ENSO. Wouldn't bet on a huge November but it can't be ruled out!

[Frontal Snowsquall]

7 hours ago, Omegaraptor said:

Cool data bit is there were 13 days with measurable precipitation at Yreka in August 1968. Almost half of the days in the month.

Nowadays even getting to one (or for that matter, getting a high below 90) is an accomplishment for there.

Troughing was incredible that month in the West. 

[Cloud]

6 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

I just noticed that before you mentioned it.

You definitely sat there F5-ing the heck out of that didn’t you?

[TT-SEA]

2 minutes ago, Cloud said:

You definitely sat there F5-ing the heck out of that didn’t you?

Actually no... waited until 4:58 and hit refresh on SEA observation page.    Then went to SEA NWS twitter and it was already posted.