October 2022 PNW weather Discussion. + Ultimate Leg Reveal Extravaganza

[TigerWoodsLibido]

24 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

Don't forget about Hamma Hamma.  Weird azz names on the Eastern Olympic Peninsula.

It's almost as if these places had names from peoples with Y-chromosomal haplogroup Q that spoke a different language and named it Hab'hab, and peoples with Y-chromosomal haplogroup R1b misheard it and gave it their own, similar sounding name in their written language.

[Cascadia_Wx]

For what it’s worth (probably a lot since it would mean continued warmth and drought) the 12z Euro control run looks quite a bit like some GFS runs yesterday, with a relatively quick return to ridging late month.

[Kayla]

1 minute ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

For what it’s worth (probably a lot since it would mean continued warmth and drought) the 12z Euro control run looks quite a bit like some GFS runs yesterday, with a relatively quick return to ridging late month.

The EPS control run!? You’re really working hard (and I totally understand the skepticism!) to find reasons why the pattern change is not coming!

[Sonny Summers]

3 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

For what it’s worth (probably a lot since it would mean continued warmth and drought) the 12z Euro control run looks quite a bit like some GFS runs yesterday, with a relatively quick return to ridging late month.

The EURO deluge would be welcomed by all. Nobody wants the fire season going into November. The GFS will come around.

[Front Ranger]

2 hours ago, Phishy Wx said:

Its Coming!

 

 

Heading to the 4 corners! The 2017 eclipse was a special experience.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Just now, Front Ranger said:

Heading to the 4 corners! The 2017 eclipse was a special experience.

I was so lucky that came right over my house. 2 mins of totality.

[Randyc321]

2 hours ago, TT-SEA said:

ECMWF not backing down at all... very wet one week from today.

Ok.  We need an Oh God please let this happen emoji.

[Cascadia_Wx]

13 minutes ago, Kayla said:

The EPS control run!? You’re really working hard (and I totally understand the skepticism!) to find reasons why the pattern change is not coming!

I don’t think it will be a lasting change. We can check back on the 31st and see how things turned out. Something tells me it will be scary  

[Cascadia_Wx]

13 minutes ago, Sonny Summers said:

The EURO deluge would be welcomed by all. Nobody wants the fire season going into November. The GFS will come around.

That post wasn’t even about the GFS?

[Sonny Summers]

For what it's worth, the CPC seems bullish about our precipitation chances.

[Kayla]

8 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

I don’t think it will be a lasting change. We can check back on the 31st and see how things turned out. Something tells me it will be scary  

Spooky! I do agree with you though. I'm hopeful you can get 2-3" by months end and finally put an end to the fire season out there at least. Could be waiting until mid to late November (or December even??) before NPAC blocking takes hold allowing cold and hopefully moist NW flow.

Those are at least my thoughts on the most likely outcome for what it's worth.

[Randyc321]

1 hour ago, NWbyNW said:

72 at Quilcene as well.  Nearby Duckabush and Debob are a bit cooler.  Yes, this was posted just so I could use Duckabush and Debob in a sentence.  You will probably never hear their names mentioned again. 

The Duckabush is probably the prettiest river on the peninsula and one of the least visited. 

It is a wild river.  Love it

[Gradient Keeper]

12z EPS looks superb if you've been awaiting classic Fall weather to arrive.

[Deweydog]

***UPDATE***

PDX now running -0 compared to this time yesterday.

[Cascadia_Wx]

12 minutes ago, DJ Droppin said:

12z EPS looks superb if you've been awaiting classic Fall weather to arrive.

That control run though.

[ShawniganLake]

13 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

That control run though.

You know the rules!  We only speak of control runs when they show cold and/or snowstorms.  Come on man!!!

[Gradient Keeper]

3 minutes ago, ShawniganLake said:

You know the rules!  We only speak of control runs when they show cold and/or snowstorms.  Come on man!!!

Correct.

00z GFS in 5 hours 12 minutes

[Iceresistance]

Quick! We must have the PDX go more positive to keep the toes of Meatyorologist attached!

[Deweydog]

Grandpa Joe is gonna have some stellar, albeit smoky, weather for his visit.

[Kolk1604]

Guys... It's time to get the band back together? Where's everyone at? 

 

 

[snow_wizard]

47 minutes ago, Kayla said:

Spooky! I do agree with you though. I'm hopeful you can get 2-3" by months end and finally put an end to the fire season out there at least. Could be waiting until mid to late November (or December even??) before NPAC blocking takes hold allowing cold and hopefully moist NW flow.

Those are at least my thoughts on the most likely outcome for what it's worth.

NW flow actually looks the most likely with this change.

[Kolk1604]

12z Euro. 

 

[Randyc321]

4 minutes ago, Kolk1604 said:

Guys... It's time to get the band back together? Where's everyone at? 

 

 

 

[GobBluth]

Good trends with the crazy uncle.

[snow_wizard]

18z GFS looks good.

[snow_wizard]

Noice!

 

[Doinko]

1 minute ago, snow_wizard said:

Noice!

 

lol PDX stays at 50

[Kolk1604]

2 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

Noice!

 

Is that afternoon highs? 

[snow_wizard]

The second trough on the 18z is even more favorable for cold mins with weak offshore flow and northerly flow aloft.

[snow_wizard]

3 minutes ago, Doiinko said:

lol PDX stays at 50

Those aren't lows, so I'm sure they would go below.

[snow_wizard]

2 minutes ago, Kolk1604 said:

Is that afternoon highs? 

This probably isn't going to be a 1935 redux. 

[snow_wizard]

Wow!  It is showing mid afternoon temps in the low 50s with clear skies on a couple of days.

[Doinko]

4 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

This probably isn't going to be a 1935 redux. 

Two EPS members showed some snow for Portland. There's a (small) chance!

[snow_wizard]

[snow_wizard]

I love this run.  I'm sure I'll get a weenie tag for this, but I don't care. 

[Doinko]

 

This WRF run also shows gusts in the 30mph range here. Calm just a few miles away towards Hillsboro though

[Joshua Lake Oswego]

Another great GFS run.

 

[snow_wizard]

4 minutes ago, Joshua Lake Oswego said:

Another great GFS run.

 

This run gets pretty darn chilly though.  Looks like a better shot for rain a bit after this.

[Brennan]

From Hot, dry and smoky in mid October to low snow levels and early winter weather a week later! That's my kind of transition. None of this in between junk. 

[TacomaWx]

wake me up when October ends