kokaneekidz Posted November 1, 2022 Report Share Posted November 1, 2022 4 minutes ago, MossMan said: Things I might need to do this weekend. Lookin great Clark!!! 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 1, 2022 Report Share Posted November 1, 2022 Day 4 (Past 4 runs) Model comparison - ECMWF, GEM, GFS 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meatyorologist Posted November 1, 2022 Report Share Posted November 1, 2022 Block is a BIG step east on this run. Holy crap, it might do it. 5 2 1 Quote Weather stats for MBY Snowfall: -Total snowfall since joining: 50.25" -2018-19: 21" -2019-20: 2.5" -2020-21: 13" -2021-22: 8.75" -2022-23: 5.75" -2023-24*: 0.25" -Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024 -Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021 -Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019 Temperatures: -Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021 -Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021 -Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TacomaWx Posted November 1, 2022 Author Report Share Posted November 1, 2022 13 minutes ago, Deweydog said: November cold history is DOMINATED by either backdoor setups or quasi-progressive clippers. This would be somewhat off the charts just from a 500mb perspective. Late October 2003 was another longwave behemoth but it was a much more traditional retrogression pattern. Always nice to hear your honest analysis on things. I remember when I joined a few years ago that was a rare thing lol 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phishy Wx Posted November 1, 2022 Report Share Posted November 1, 2022 King Euro is keeping me up past my bedtime. 2 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthHillFrosty Posted November 1, 2022 Report Share Posted November 1, 2022 2 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meatyorologist Posted November 1, 2022 Report Share Posted November 1, 2022 Nah it's gonna bomb out lol 2 Quote Weather stats for MBY Snowfall: -Total snowfall since joining: 50.25" -2018-19: 21" -2019-20: 2.5" -2020-21: 13" -2021-22: 8.75" -2022-23: 5.75" -2023-24*: 0.25" -Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024 -Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021 -Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019 Temperatures: -Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021 -Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021 -Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted November 1, 2022 Report Share Posted November 1, 2022 Favorable changes in the surface high complex even before day 5 on the 0z ECMWF. 3 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Omegaraptor Posted November 1, 2022 Report Share Posted November 1, 2022 Also if this verifies. Given how persistent the patterns have been this year for the NW I highly doubt this will be some "one hit wonder and then back to business as usual" thing. I feel like this could very well be the direction the general pattern is headed in for quite a while. CPC 8-14 top analog is November 1978. Nov-Jan 1978-79 was one of the true epic stretches of cold for the NW. 3 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted November 1, 2022 Report Share Posted November 1, 2022 Any last words for October? 2 1 Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kokaneekidz Posted November 1, 2022 Report Share Posted November 1, 2022 Excited to see the name given to the november blog 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kokaneekidz Posted November 1, 2022 Report Share Posted November 1, 2022 2 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said: Nah it's gonna bomb out lol Reverse psychology. You must be a Seahawks fan 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 1, 2022 Report Share Posted November 1, 2022 Day 5 (Past 4 runs) Block looks much healthier, but arctic trough may be digging out too far to the north. We'll see how Day 5.5 to 7 turns out. Model comparison - ECMWF, GEM, GFS Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CliffMassYelledAtMe Posted November 1, 2022 Report Share Posted November 1, 2022 I can believe it might get cold. And I can believe it might snow. (But not the snow depths shown, sorry.) What I am having a really hard time with is those temperature spreads. Highs of around freezing and lows in the single digits? I don't remember ever seeing such a thing around Puget Sound. Not to say it can't happen, but the last single digit lows I can remember had high temps in the high teens. That discrepancy is what is making me feel like this is crazy. Like yes, it can get to single digits here but it doesn't get that cold and also that "warm" in the same day. Makes the whole thing suspect for me despite how much I may want snow. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 1, 2022 Report Share Posted November 1, 2022 Day 5.5 hmmmm! 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 1, 2022 Report Share Posted November 1, 2022 Diggggggggggggggg! King EURO is really going to try to pull this off tonight! 6 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Omegaraptor Posted November 1, 2022 Report Share Posted November 1, 2022 2 minutes ago, CliffMassYelledAtMe said: I can believe it might get cold. And I can believe it might snow. (But not the snow depths shown, sorry.) What I am having a really hard time with is those temperature spreads. Highs of around freezing and lows in the single digits? I don't remember ever seeing such a thing around Puget Sound. Not to say it can't happen, but the last single digit lows I can remember had high temps in the high teens. That discrepancy is what is making me feel like this is crazy. Like yes, it can get to single digits here but it doesn't get that cold and also that "warm" in the same day. Makes the whole thing suspect for me despite how much I may want snow. The upper levels are what we want to watch right now. The 2m stuff isn't real accurate this far out. It'll sort itself out later. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kolk1604 Posted November 1, 2022 Report Share Posted November 1, 2022 Just before Day 6 1 2 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Requiem Posted November 1, 2022 Report Share Posted November 1, 2022 I will scream, cry, and throw things (not necessarily in that order) if the latest GFS doesn't verify exactly 1 1 3 Quote "Let's mosey!" --Cloud Strife ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Top 5 Snow Events (post 2014): (1. January 10th, 2017: 18.5 in.(2. February 6th, 2014: 7.5 inches(3. February 20th, 2018: 5.0 inches(4. February 21st, 2018: 4.0 inches(5. December 14th, 2016: 3.5 inches Honourable Mentions: December 7th, 2018, February 9th, 2019. Total since joining the Weather Forums: 3" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 1, 2022 Report Share Posted November 1, 2022 Day 6 (Past 4 runs) Digggggggggggggggg!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! Really good improvements with the EURO tonight. Model comparison - ECMWF, GEM, GFS 5 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MR.SNOWMIZER Posted November 1, 2022 Report Share Posted November 1, 2022 23 minutes ago, MossMan said: Things I might need to do this weekend. 1 1 1 Quote We come from the land of the ice and snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TacomaWx Posted November 1, 2022 Author Report Share Posted November 1, 2022 Geez now the euros showing snow at hour 132 wtf. Temps are suspect tho 4 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian_in_Leavenworth Posted November 1, 2022 Report Share Posted November 1, 2022 1 minute ago, Gradient Keeper said: Day 6 (Past 4 runs) Digggggggggggggggg!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! Really good improvements with the EURO tonight. Model comparison - ECMWF, GEM, GFS Block looks South enough where it won't get undercut so easy. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jbolin Posted November 1, 2022 Report Share Posted November 1, 2022 9 minutes ago, Deweydog said: Any last words for October? So long and thanks for all the Twix 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TigerWoodsLibido Posted November 1, 2022 Report Share Posted November 1, 2022 EC is caving. Holy shitt. 4 2 1 1 Quote Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats: Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024) Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024) Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024) Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024) Total snowfall: 0.0" Total ice: 2.25” Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9") Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F) Last White Christmas: 1990 Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0 Personal Stats: Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F) Last White Christmas: 2008 Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0" Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4 Venmo GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2 My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope 24 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Popular Post Jbolin Posted November 1, 2022 Popular Post Report Share Posted November 1, 2022 5 minutes ago, Gradient Keeper said: Diggggggggggggggg! King EURO is really going to try to pull this off tonight! ECMWF coming for the GFS 6 2 3 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Omegaraptor Posted November 1, 2022 Report Share Posted November 1, 2022 PAYBACK FOR JULY, AUGUST, SEPTEMBER, AND OCTOBER. 8 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Requiem Posted November 1, 2022 Report Share Posted November 1, 2022 looks better 1 1 Quote "Let's mosey!" --Cloud Strife ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Top 5 Snow Events (post 2014): (1. January 10th, 2017: 18.5 in.(2. February 6th, 2014: 7.5 inches(3. February 20th, 2018: 5.0 inches(4. February 21st, 2018: 4.0 inches(5. December 14th, 2016: 3.5 inches Honourable Mentions: December 7th, 2018, February 9th, 2019. Total since joining the Weather Forums: 3" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
westiztehbest Posted November 1, 2022 Report Share Posted November 1, 2022 38 minutes ago, Kolk1604 said: o snap 2 1 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TigerWoodsLibido Posted November 1, 2022 Report Share Posted November 1, 2022 1 1 1 4 Quote Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats: Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024) Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024) Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024) Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024) Total snowfall: 0.0" Total ice: 2.25” Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9") Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F) Last White Christmas: 1990 Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0 Personal Stats: Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F) Last White Christmas: 2008 Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0" Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4 Venmo GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2 My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope 24 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 1, 2022 Report Share Posted November 1, 2022 Day 7 (Past 4 runs) Definite improvements. Not on the wacky GFS level yet. Model comparison - ECMWF, GEM, GFS 1 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Christensen87 Posted November 1, 2022 Report Share Posted November 1, 2022 And to think it was 90° and smoky just a couple of weeks ago. 8 1 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 1, 2022 Report Share Posted November 1, 2022 Day 8 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 1, 2022 Report Share Posted November 1, 2022 Going somewhere! 2 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kokaneekidz Posted November 1, 2022 Report Share Posted November 1, 2022 3 minutes ago, Christensen87 said: And to think it was 90° and smoky just a couple of weeks ago. A HAARP seasonal closure could be our culprit . Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jbolin Posted November 1, 2022 Report Share Posted November 1, 2022 9 minutes ago, JSnowlin said: ECMWF coming for the GFS GET IN LOSER, we're going blizzarding 3 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doinko Posted November 1, 2022 Report Share Posted November 1, 2022 Just a bit too warm but still nice 6 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phishy Wx Posted November 1, 2022 Report Share Posted November 1, 2022 10 minutes ago, Omegaraptor said: PAYBACK FOR JULY, AUGUST, SEPTEMBER, AND AUGTOBER. FYP 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted November 1, 2022 Report Share Posted November 1, 2022 20 minutes ago, CliffMassYelledAtMe said: I can believe it might get cold. And I can believe it might snow. (But not the snow depths shown, sorry.) What I am having a really hard time with is those temperature spreads. Highs of around freezing and lows in the single digits? I don't remember ever seeing such a thing around Puget Sound. Not to say it can't happen, but the last single digit lows I can remember had high temps in the high teens. That discrepancy is what is making me feel like this is crazy. Like yes, it can get to single digits here but it doesn't get that cold and also that "warm" in the same day. Makes the whole thing suspect for me despite how much I may want snow. It dropped to 6 at SEA in Nov 1955...not that much later than this possible event. 1 1 3 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 1, 2022 Report Share Posted November 1, 2022 Day 9'er 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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