Snownerd3000 Posted November 29, 2022 Report Share Posted November 29, 2022 5 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said: 00z GFS Day 10: We reloading? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted November 29, 2022 Report Share Posted November 29, 2022 3 minutes ago, bainbridgekid said: Kind of a weird AFD from Seattle NWS. Especially puzzling first part about less cold air than initially expected. Not sure why they would have expected anything more than we've already seen this evening. Not as much cold air has moved into the area as initially expected. The relatively warmer surface conditions will working against lowland snow. It is not just temperatures that are working against lowland snow, wind will also be a factor. Ahead of the front the easterly winds will work to dry out low levels. As the warm front moves through strong persistent southerlies will raise snow and freezing levels up. Making the potential for lowland snow decrease. That said, there is still the potential. With high precipitation rates dragging cold air aloft down to the surface there remains the potential for accumulating snow in the lowlands. Snow on the east side of the Olympic Peninsula and South of the Olympic mountains could begin seeing snow during the period of easterly winds ahead of the frontal system. This area will likely transition over to rain as the warm front moves through. However, additional snow is possible during heavier periods of precipitation. The big question mark in precipitation type is for the Seattle metro area. Between the easterlies and southerlies the chance of accumulating snow for the south end of the area is less likely. For the north end precipitation rates could be strong enough that areas do see some wet slushy accumulations. This is most likely on the higher hills of the area. The north side of the Seattle metro area will also have the potential for snow due to post frontal convergence early Wednesday morning. The lowland snow accumulation for north of the Seattle metro is tricky. Snow levels are expected to only rise to 2000 feet briefly during the early morning hours Wednesday. With the more persistent cold air the chance of accumulation is more likely particularly when it comes to the post frontal showers Wednesday morning. Maybe they were thinking the 4 degrees at Hoquiam was an actual thing? 6 1 My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted November 29, 2022 Report Share Posted November 29, 2022 3 minutes ago, bainbridgekid said: Kind of a weird AFD from Seattle NWS. Especially puzzling first part about less cold air than initially expected. Not sure why they would have expected anything more than we've already seen this evening. Not as much cold air has moved into the area as initially expected. The relatively warmer surface conditions will working against lowland snow. It is not just temperatures that are working against lowland snow, wind will also be a factor. Ahead of the front the easterly winds will work to dry out low levels. As the warm front moves through strong persistent southerlies will raise snow and freezing levels up. Making the potential for lowland snow decrease. That said, there is still the potential. With high precipitation rates dragging cold air aloft down to the surface there remains the potential for accumulating snow in the lowlands. Snow on the east side of the Olympic Peninsula and South of the Olympic mountains could begin seeing snow during the period of easterly winds ahead of the frontal system. This area will likely transition over to rain as the warm front moves through. However, additional snow is possible during heavier periods of precipitation. The big question mark in precipitation type is for the Seattle metro area. Between the easterlies and southerlies the chance of accumulating snow for the south end of the area is less likely. For the north end precipitation rates could be strong enough that areas do see some wet slushy accumulations. This is most likely on the higher hills of the area. The north side of the Seattle metro area will also have the potential for snow due to post frontal convergence early Wednesday morning. The lowland snow accumulation for north of the Seattle metro is tricky. Snow levels are expected to only rise to 2000 feet briefly during the early morning hours Wednesday. With the more persistent cold air the chance of accumulation is more likely particularly when it comes to the post frontal showers Wednesday morning. Odd. By that discussion why did they issue a WSW? And it’s currently 25 degrees at my house. Was I supposed to be in the teens? 4 Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Skagit Weather Posted November 29, 2022 Report Share Posted November 29, 2022 3 minutes ago, bainbridgekid said: Kind of a weird AFD from Seattle NWS. Especially puzzling first part about less cold air than initially expected. Not sure why they would have expected anything more than we've already seen this evening. Not as much cold air has moved into the area as initially expected. The relatively warmer surface conditions will working against lowland snow. It is not just temperatures that are working against lowland snow, wind will also be a factor. Ahead of the front the easterly winds will work to dry out low levels. As the warm front moves through strong persistent southerlies will raise snow and freezing levels up. Making the potential for lowland snow decrease. That said, there is still the potential. With high precipitation rates dragging cold air aloft down to the surface there remains the potential for accumulating snow in the lowlands. Snow on the east side of the Olympic Peninsula and South of the Olympic mountains could begin seeing snow during the period of easterly winds ahead of the frontal system. This area will likely transition over to rain as the warm front moves through. However, additional snow is possible during heavier periods of precipitation. The big question mark in precipitation type is for the Seattle metro area. Between the easterlies and southerlies the chance of accumulating snow for the south end of the area is less likely. For the north end precipitation rates could be strong enough that areas do see some wet slushy accumulations. This is most likely on the higher hills of the area. The north side of the Seattle metro area will also have the potential for snow due to post frontal convergence early Wednesday morning. The lowland snow accumulation for north of the Seattle metro is tricky. Snow levels are expected to only rise to 2000 feet briefly during the early morning hours Wednesday. With the more persistent cold air the chance of accumulation is more likely particularly when it comes to the post frontal showers Wednesday morning. Yeah, I was wondering about that as well when I read it. To be fair the Euro predicts temperatures in the high teens and low 20s up here by 10 p.m. tonight which doesn't look likely, but I don't know how they could have known that when they put out this forecast this afternoon. And the Euro was clearly an outlier in that regard. Every other model seems to be verifying as predicted. Perhaps they were referring to the model runs a couple days ago? 3 Home Wx Station Stats (Since January 2008): Max Temp: 96.3F (2009) Min Temp: 2.0F (2008) Max Wind Gust: 45 mph (2018, 2021) Wettest Day: 2.34 (11/4/22) Avg Yearly Precip: 37" 10yr Avg Snow: 8.0" Snowfall Totals '08-09: 30" | '09-10: 0.5" | '10-11: 21" | '11-12: 9.5" | '12-13: 0.2" | '13-14: 6.2" | '14-15: 0.0" | '15-16: 0.25"| '16-17: 8.0" | '17-18: 0.9"| '18-19: 11.5" | '19-20: 11" | '20-21: 10.5" | '21-22: 21.75" | '22-23: 10.0" 2023-24: 7.0" (1/17: 3", 1/18: 1.5", 2/26: 0.5", 3/4: 2.0", Flakes: 1/11, 1/16) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lowlandsnow Posted November 29, 2022 Report Share Posted November 29, 2022 I thought temps were colder than expected 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 29, 2022 Report Share Posted November 29, 2022 1 minute ago, Deweydog said: Maybe they were thinking the 4 degrees at Hoquiam was an actual thing? Wait. So that's not happening now? I told my relatives in Ocean Shores it was going to be 5 degrees! 3 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cloud Posted November 29, 2022 Report Share Posted November 29, 2022 5 minutes ago, bainbridgekid said: Kind of a weird AFD from Seattle NWS. Especially puzzling first part about less cold air than initially expected. Not sure why they would have expected anything more than we've already seen this evening. Not as much cold air has moved into the area as initially expected. The relatively warmer surface conditions will working against lowland snow. It is not just temperatures that are working against lowland snow, wind will also be a factor. Ahead of the front the easterly winds will work to dry out low levels. As the warm front moves through strong persistent southerlies will raise snow and freezing levels up. Making the potential for lowland snow decrease. That said, there is still the potential. With high precipitation rates dragging cold air aloft down to the surface there remains the potential for accumulating snow in the lowlands. Snow on the east side of the Olympic Peninsula and South of the Olympic mountains could begin seeing snow during the period of easterly winds ahead of the frontal system. This area will likely transition over to rain as the warm front moves through. However, additional snow is possible during heavier periods of precipitation. The big question mark in precipitation type is for the Seattle metro area. Between the easterlies and southerlies the chance of accumulating snow for the south end of the area is less likely. For the north end precipitation rates could be strong enough that areas do see some wet slushy accumulations. This is most likely on the higher hills of the area. The north side of the Seattle metro area will also have the potential for snow due to post frontal convergence early Wednesday morning. The lowland snow accumulation for north of the Seattle metro is tricky. Snow levels are expected to only rise to 2000 feet briefly during the early morning hours Wednesday. With the more persistent cold air the chance of accumulation is more likely particularly when it comes to the post frontal showers Wednesday morning. Curious to know what they were working with initially. Certainly seems like it’s colder than expected to me. Odd. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nov1985 Posted November 29, 2022 Report Share Posted November 29, 2022 6 minutes ago, VancouverIslandSouth said: GFS keeps 925mb temperatures in the Salish Sea below freezing right through tomorrow evening. In many places it never goes above freezing. the warm sector collapses by Wednesday afternoon, and there's nothing to drive a warmup from there on - GFS really holds this cold line very differently than the other models. I noticed sliding through hours in yesterdays runs it basically blocks warming progress here while the other models nose warmth up to the CA border. And in GFS, then the colder air fills in from the northwest, never really going above freezing behind the line. That's the ballgame right there. See how it does tomorrow. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Popular Post MossMan Posted November 29, 2022 Popular Post Report Share Posted November 29, 2022 2 minutes ago, Cloud said: Curious to know what they were working with initially. Certainly seems like it’s colder than expected to me. Odd. I think they wrote that AFD just to see our reaction to it…They are probably all gathered around one of their computers laughing at our posts as we speak! 1 10 1 1 Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted November 29, 2022 Report Share Posted November 29, 2022 Just now, Nov1985 said: GFS really holds this cold line very differently than the other models. I noticed sliding through hours in yesterdays runs it basically blocks warming progress here while the other models nose warmth up to the CA border. And in GFS, then the colder air fills in from the northwest, never really going above freezing behind the line. That's the ballgame right there. See how it does tomorrow. Its really seems to assume the Cascades aren't there. 3 1 **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gummy Posted November 29, 2022 Report Share Posted November 29, 2022 Per Cliff's blog update tonight, he is NOT onboard. Between Cliff and the NWS the trends are, well, you know. 1 1 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Snap Posted November 29, 2022 Report Share Posted November 29, 2022 24 minutes ago, TacomaWx said: Nice little cold shot at the beginning of next week. I’m not even worried about next week right now though this weeks gonna be good. I’m still just baffled at the turnaround on the models. This was in serious bust territory then it all changed. Don’t think I can recall a time where we went from excellent runs, to terrible runs then back to some really good stuff very close to an event. Yeah things definitely turned around today and I’m happy about it. This experience just goes to show you can never be sure until about 24 hours to the event. 2 1 2023 - 2024 Cold Season Stats Total Snowfall - 0.75” Max Snow Depth - 0.5” Coldest High Temp - 21 (Jan 13) Coldest Low Temp - 9 (Jan 13) Number of Freezes - 51 Sub-40 highs - 12 Highs 32 or lower - 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowWillarrive Posted November 29, 2022 Report Share Posted November 29, 2022 Just now, Gummy said: Per Cliff's blog update tonight, he is NOT on board. Between Cliff and the NWS the trends are, well, you know. Basically they read Cliff blog and decided to go conservative. That’s fine. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lowlandsnow Posted November 29, 2022 Report Share Posted November 29, 2022 Have dew points and temperatures risen? 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Popular Post TT-SEA Posted November 29, 2022 Popular Post Report Share Posted November 29, 2022 Just now, Gummy said: Per Cliff's blog update tonight, he is NOT on board. Between Cliff and the NWS the trends are, well, you know. Best sign yet that this will be big. 9 1 1 **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poulsbo Snowman Posted November 29, 2022 Report Share Posted November 29, 2022 31 with a dew point of 18 in Poulsbo. 1 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poulsbo Snowman Posted November 29, 2022 Report Share Posted November 29, 2022 1 minute ago, lowlandsnow said: Have dew points and temperatures risen? Both continue to fall. We're set up nicely for tomorrow. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 29, 2022 Report Share Posted November 29, 2022 00z GEFS PDX high temp Saturday 33 4 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
smerfylicious Posted November 29, 2022 Report Share Posted November 29, 2022 WRF wants to snow hole me with nothing. I hate that model since the GFS upgrade. 2 2 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Requiem Posted November 29, 2022 Report Share Posted November 29, 2022 I'm glad the GEM likes us, at the very least. I'm hoping the EURO possesses some better trends tonight, though I'm not holding my breath. 4 1 "Let's mosey!" --Cloud Strife ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Top 5 Snow Events (post 2014): (1. January 10th, 2017: 18.5 in.(2. February 6th, 2014: 7.5 inches(3. February 20th, 2018: 5.0 inches(4. February 21st, 2018: 4.0 inches(5. December 14th, 2016: 3.5 inches Honourable Mentions: December 7th, 2018, February 9th, 2019. Total since joining the Weather Forums: 3" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted November 29, 2022 Report Share Posted November 29, 2022 3 minutes ago, Gradient Keeper said: 00z GEFS PDX high temp Saturday 33 Might be their low that day… 2 2 My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted November 29, 2022 Report Share Posted November 29, 2022 Yeah way too warm tonight. We are screwed. 1 4 1 1 Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cloud Posted November 29, 2022 Report Share Posted November 29, 2022 Just now, MossMan said: Yeah way too warm tonight. We are screwed. Bust out da boat! 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
selkirks Posted November 29, 2022 Report Share Posted November 29, 2022 9 minutes ago, Gummy said: Per Cliff's blog update tonight, he is NOT onboard. Between Cliff and the NWS the trends are, well, you know. this is good news. we don't listen to or care about cliff or anything he says 1 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CliffMassYelledAtMe Posted November 29, 2022 Report Share Posted November 29, 2022 18 minutes ago, bainbridgekid said: Kind of a weird AFD from Seattle NWS. Especially puzzling first part about less cold air than initially expected. Not sure why they would have expected anything more than we've already seen this evening. Not as much cold air has moved into the area as initially expected. The relatively warmer surface conditions will working against lowland snow. It is not just temperatures that are working against lowland snow, wind will also be a factor. Ahead of the front the easterly winds will work to dry out low levels. As the warm front moves through strong persistent southerlies will raise snow and freezing levels up. Making the potential for lowland snow decrease. That said, there is still the potential. With high precipitation rates dragging cold air aloft down to the surface there remains the potential for accumulating snow in the lowlands. Snow on the east side of the Olympic Peninsula and South of the Olympic mountains could begin seeing snow during the period of easterly winds ahead of the frontal system. This area will likely transition over to rain as the warm front moves through. However, additional snow is possible during heavier periods of precipitation. The big question mark in precipitation type is for the Seattle metro area. Between the easterlies and southerlies the chance of accumulating snow for the south end of the area is less likely. For the north end precipitation rates could be strong enough that areas do see some wet slushy accumulations. This is most likely on the higher hills of the area. The north side of the Seattle metro area will also have the potential for snow due to post frontal convergence early Wednesday morning. The lowland snow accumulation for north of the Seattle metro is tricky. Snow levels are expected to only rise to 2000 feet briefly during the early morning hours Wednesday. With the more persistent cold air the chance of accumulation is more likely particularly when it comes to the post frontal showers Wednesday morning. Love the NWS, but this type of AFD has me more hopeful for snow that any GFS 10:1 map. It always seems that we get overperforming systems when stuff gets communicated this way. Here's a watch, but nothing will probably happen, so don't worry about it. Bring out the snow boots! 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lowlandsnow Posted November 29, 2022 Report Share Posted November 29, 2022 1 minute ago, MossMan said: Yeah way too warm tonight. We are screwed. Total bust dewpoint is only 17 at Seatac not cold enough 1 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 29, 2022 Report Share Posted November 29, 2022 2 minutes ago, Deweydog said: Might be their low that day… Probably more accurate. Then again if a low dives south of us it would pull in colder Gorge winds. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 29, 2022 Report Share Posted November 29, 2022 I fully expect the EURO to continue to take a big chunky shit on all of our hopes and dreams of Cold and SNOW! 00z ECMWF in 44 minutes 2 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TigerWoodsLibido Posted November 29, 2022 Report Share Posted November 29, 2022 1 minute ago, Gradient Keeper said: I fully expect the EURO to continue to take a big chunky shit on all of our hopes and dreams of Cold and SNOW! 00z ECMWF in 44 minutes We call it Dr. No for a reason. 1 1 1 Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats: Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024) Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024) Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024) Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024) Total snowfall: 0.0" Total ice: 2.25” Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9") Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F) Last White Christmas: 1990 Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0 Personal Stats: Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F) Last White Christmas: 2008 Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0" Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4 Venmo GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2 My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope 24 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeepFriedEgg Posted November 29, 2022 Report Share Posted November 29, 2022 33/30 in west PDX metro 5 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 29, 2022 Report Share Posted November 29, 2022 2 minutes ago, DeepFriedEgg said: 33/30 in west PDX metro Not bad! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TigerWoodsLibido Posted November 29, 2022 Report Share Posted November 29, 2022 32F in Springfield. DP 30F. All the graupel and rain that fell is frozen to the cars and grass. 5 1 3 Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats: Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024) Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024) Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024) Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024) Total snowfall: 0.0" Total ice: 2.25” Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9") Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F) Last White Christmas: 1990 Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0 Personal Stats: Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F) Last White Christmas: 2008 Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0" Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4 Venmo GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2 My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope 24 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthHillFrosty Posted November 29, 2022 Report Share Posted November 29, 2022 3 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthHillFrosty Posted November 29, 2022 Report Share Posted November 29, 2022 1 1 2 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Popular Post MR.SNOWMIZER Posted November 29, 2022 Popular Post Report Share Posted November 29, 2022 Light snow and 30 degrees here. 8 4 2 1 1 We come from the land of the ice and snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Anti Marine Layer Posted November 29, 2022 Report Share Posted November 29, 2022 34 minutes ago, bainbridgekid said: Kind of a weird AFD from Seattle NWS. Especially puzzling first part about less cold air than initially expected. Not sure why they would have expected anything more than we've already seen this evening. Not as much cold air has moved into the area as initially expected. The relatively warmer surface conditions will working against lowland snow. It is not just temperatures that are working against lowland snow, wind will also be a factor. Ahead of the front the easterly winds will work to dry out low levels. As the warm front moves through strong persistent southerlies will raise snow and freezing levels up. Making the potential for lowland snow decrease. That said, there is still the potential. With high precipitation rates dragging cold air aloft down to the surface there remains the potential for accumulating snow in the lowlands. Snow on the east side of the Olympic Peninsula and South of the Olympic mountains could begin seeing snow during the period of easterly winds ahead of the frontal system. This area will likely transition over to rain as the warm front moves through. However, additional snow is possible during heavier periods of precipitation. The big question mark in precipitation type is for the Seattle metro area. Between the easterlies and southerlies the chance of accumulating snow for the south end of the area is less likely. For the north end precipitation rates could be strong enough that areas do see some wet slushy accumulations. This is most likely on the higher hills of the area. The north side of the Seattle metro area will also have the potential for snow due to post frontal convergence early Wednesday morning. The lowland snow accumulation for north of the Seattle metro is tricky. Snow levels are expected to only rise to 2000 feet briefly during the early morning hours Wednesday. With the more persistent cold air the chance of accumulation is more likely particularly when it comes to the post frontal showers Wednesday morning. Bummer 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeepFriedEgg Posted November 29, 2022 Report Share Posted November 29, 2022 Wow. KHIO (Hillsboro) down to 28/28. Hotbox PDX still at 37/30 6 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RayRay Posted November 29, 2022 Report Share Posted November 29, 2022 is the radar down for the puget sound area? It seems like there is nothing… 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
smerfylicious Posted November 29, 2022 Report Share Posted November 29, 2022 26/25 here in Gold Bar. Wife is chillin' at the hospital with kiddo. I have older kiddo duty, so I have a cool remote webcam i get to watch I guess. Overlake's NICU is kitted out though. very impressive. 4 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthHillFrosty Posted November 29, 2022 Report Share Posted November 29, 2022 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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