I am also going off trends. The ECMWF has slowly evolved from wet and active to showing no systems and sunshine for most of the next 10 days. If you just looked at the models for the first time since last week you might be expecting a death ridge and now it looks much more reasonable. But if you track the ECMWF every day... the slow and steady trend to drier and sunnier over the last few runs is quite noticeable.
The EPS may lean dry but it lacks the granular resolution to resolve small scale precip opportunites. Not that it's wrong, but there may be more opportunities than it wants to let on.
Need to see mean trough position offshore for a wet pattern. Not sure we are due for anything though. Southern parts of the region have been very wet recently.
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