Chewbacca Defense Posted November 3, 2022 Report Share Posted November 3, 2022 8 hours ago, Skagit Weather said: The most miserable weather experience of my life was February 22-24, 2014. February 22: 0.56" precip, Hi: 36F, Low: 31F (before precip arrived) February 23: 0.87" precip, Hi: 34F, Low: 33F February 24: 1.09" precip, Hi: 35F, Low: 33F 60 hours straight of snow mixed with rain, no accumulation, 2.52" of precipitation total. If I went two miles north there was 8" of snow on the ground, but there was next to nothing at my house. Bellingham was buried and to the south was in the upper 30s, low 40s but my house was the battleground. We've had a couple of those here in Bellingham proper. There was one year that I think we got *maybe* 2-3" at our house, but 2-3 miles to the north it jumped to 8-12"+ and another 2-3 miles north of that was legit blizzard conditions. It might have actually been 2014 now that I think about it. 1 Britton Rd Bellingham Weather Station: https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KWABELLI103?cm_ven=localwx_pwsdash Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fubario Posted November 3, 2022 Report Share Posted November 3, 2022 1 hour ago, TT-SEA said: Definitely enough sun the last few months. But this type of pattern in which we get a bunch of rain at once and dry stretches in between with some sun is just a bonus in November. Sometimes it continues like this all winter. Love this for you. 1 2 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Popular Post Dave Posted November 3, 2022 Popular Post Report Share Posted November 3, 2022 Currently 1 degree F at Horse Ridge in central Oregon. 7 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted November 3, 2022 Report Share Posted November 3, 2022 Looks like we hit freezing again this morning . 2 Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Snap Posted November 3, 2022 Report Share Posted November 3, 2022 Just missed out on the first freeze getting down to 33 this morning. I’m going to Arizona today and wont be back until Sunday night. So it’s definitely coming Sunday now. 3 1 1 1 2023 - 2024 Cold Season Stats Total Snowfall - 0.75” Max Snow Depth - 0.5” Coldest High Temp - 21 (Jan 13) Coldest Low Temp - 9 (Jan 13) Number of Freezes - 51 Sub-40 highs - 12 Highs 32 or lower - 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doinko Posted November 3, 2022 Report Share Posted November 3, 2022 5 hours ago, TigerWoodsLibido said: Day 5 Still a bit too far west but better than the 00z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doinko Posted November 3, 2022 Report Share Posted November 3, 2022 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doinko Posted November 3, 2022 Report Share Posted November 3, 2022 4 minutes ago, Doinko said: GFS is probably overdoing the cold air of course but it shows a high of 30 on Wednesday in Portland with east winds. Then Thursday starts out in the 20s and warms up to around 33 by the very end of the day with a transition snow/ice event. Here are the temps for Portland from the 06z. Tuesday: 37/31 Wednesday: 30/26 Thursday: 33/26 Definitely overdoing it but still it's better than the 00z which is good Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Omegaraptor Posted November 3, 2022 Report Share Posted November 3, 2022 Lows this morning Sunriver - 10 Lakeview - 10 Chester - 7 Burns - 6 Alturas - 5 Not bad for 11/3. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phishy Wx Posted November 3, 2022 Report Share Posted November 3, 2022 mainly cold and dry next week. maybe a decent snow Sunday night into Monday 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted November 3, 2022 Report Share Posted November 3, 2022 (edited) The 06z GFS was pretty nippy. At face value I would say highs in the lower 40s for PDX and down the valley. Edited November 3, 2022 by SilverFallsAndrew 1 Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted November 3, 2022 Report Share Posted November 3, 2022 10 minutes ago, Omegaraptor said: Lows this morning Sunriver - 10 Lakeview - 10 Chester - 7 Burns - 6 Alturas - 5 Not bad for 11/3. Not bad. Looks like the record at BNO is -2 from 1995. Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doinko Posted November 3, 2022 Report Share Posted November 3, 2022 Just now, SilverFallsAndrew said: The 06z GFS was pretty nippy. At face value I would say lows in the lower 40s for PDX and down the valley. Maybe slightly colder near the gorge if we get any sort of transition event I think. Hoping that feature stays consistent 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Randyc321 Posted November 3, 2022 Report Share Posted November 3, 2022 The HRRR is much drier than either the NAM or the WRF. The two latter are much closer to each other and earlier in the runs look closer to the actual current radar. Hoping the HRRR is the wrong one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted November 3, 2022 Report Share Posted November 3, 2022 2 minutes ago, Doinko said: Maybe slightly colder near the gorge if we get any sort of transition event I think. Hoping that feature stays consistent Yes, I'm just talking about the sunny days. Yeah colder if there are clouds and an overrunning type event. Just a note of caution, we have a pretty chilly airmass right now and PDX hit a low of 43 this morning. I get it, low clouds and higher DP's, but still... 1 Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doinko Posted November 3, 2022 Report Share Posted November 3, 2022 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doinko Posted November 3, 2022 Report Share Posted November 3, 2022 Better 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doinko Posted November 3, 2022 Report Share Posted November 3, 2022 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeInEverett Posted November 3, 2022 Report Share Posted November 3, 2022 One notch east at a time (Previous name: MillCreekMike) Everett, WA (elev. 180’) 2023-2024 Snowfall: 1/11: Tr. 1/18: Tr. Go M’s Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doinko Posted November 3, 2022 Report Share Posted November 3, 2022 Just now, MillCreekMike said: One notch east at a time Yeah, 850s are colder too 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RentonHill Posted November 3, 2022 Report Share Posted November 3, 2022 1 minute ago, Doinko said: Yeah, 850s are colder too Euros gonna cave happy the gold jackets yours!! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RentonHill Posted November 3, 2022 Report Share Posted November 3, 2022 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doinko Posted November 3, 2022 Report Share Posted November 3, 2022 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeInEverett Posted November 3, 2022 Report Share Posted November 3, 2022 1 minute ago, Doinko said: Looks just like the ensemble mean from the last few runs (Previous name: MillCreekMike) Everett, WA (elev. 180’) 2023-2024 Snowfall: 1/11: Tr. 1/18: Tr. Go M’s Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dave Posted November 3, 2022 Report Share Posted November 3, 2022 20 minutes ago, Doinko said: It's so cool that I'll be riding my snowmobile on the streets of Eugene in 4 days. I love when that happens in early Nov. Sweet! 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FroYoBro Posted November 3, 2022 Report Share Posted November 3, 2022 1 minute ago, MillCreekMike said: Looks just like the ensemble mean from the last few runs I wouldn’t pay super close attention to the ensemble or main GFS surface temperatures. But yeah, the 12z looks slightly cooler from a upper level perspective. Chilly! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted November 3, 2022 Report Share Posted November 3, 2022 5 minutes ago, Doinko said: Record low at SLE on the 9th is 25 from 1936, it is essentially their lowest hanging fruit in terms of November record lows. 3 Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doinko Posted November 3, 2022 Report Share Posted November 3, 2022 Transition event is still here 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted November 3, 2022 Report Share Posted November 3, 2022 If we actually get some dry air/off shore flow accompanying this trough than these lows look reasonable. Highs in the mid-30s with sunshine just wouldn't be in the cards though, record min maxes in the NW Oregon lowlands for the middle of next week are around 40. 1 Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted November 3, 2022 Report Share Posted November 3, 2022 1 minute ago, Doinko said: Transition event is still here This seems the most likely lowland snow scenario to me. If you look at historical precedent, there are some examples of transition events in November, this is still a little early, but there are several examples in the November 15-20 range, so it would not be overly freakish. 4 Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Omegaraptor Posted November 3, 2022 Report Share Posted November 3, 2022 Wish I could head to the Cascades to chase those single digit lows on Wednesday morning. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doinko Posted November 3, 2022 Report Share Posted November 3, 2022 Canadian so far 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snownerd3000 Posted November 3, 2022 Report Share Posted November 3, 2022 12z GFS looks colder. Nasty ice storm for PDX and SEA next Thursday with the transition event. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doinko Posted November 3, 2022 Report Share Posted November 3, 2022 Canadian reforming the block! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doinko Posted November 3, 2022 Report Share Posted November 3, 2022 Canadian is very cold, strong surface high to our east and no systems mixing out the cold air. More reasonable than the GFS with highs though. 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snownerd3000 Posted November 3, 2022 Report Share Posted November 3, 2022 Weird, no ext GEFS ran yesterday. I know its clown range but curious to see what the Weeklies show today going into Dec. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlTahoe Posted November 3, 2022 Report Share Posted November 3, 2022 I know you guys are hoping for the GFS outcome but the Euro and Canadian show a classic huge Sierra snow storm setup. We would be looking at 36"+ at lake level and even Reno and Carson would approach their Nov 1985 totals of 18" GFS doesn't bring us much of anything. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MR.SNOWMIZER Posted November 3, 2022 Report Share Posted November 3, 2022 (edited) Things become much easier when you stop looking at gfs snow maps past 72hrs. Comical it's so bad. Edited November 3, 2022 by MR.SNOWMIZER 6 We come from the land of the ice and snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TacomaWx Posted November 3, 2022 Report Share Posted November 3, 2022 Looks like we pulled off a 44/37 yesterday…got down to 37 this morning as well. Models are still looking good for some chilly weather. Pretty decent cold snap for this early in the season. Maybe we get lucky and see some snow out of this somehow there’s almost always surprises with cold snaps. Besides 2014 (which was an El Niño so we can likely throw out that analog) November cold worked out well in 2006, 2010 and 2017 for something else later on in the winter. 2010 and 2017 were both La Nina’s that worked out well later in the year. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawniganLake Posted November 3, 2022 Report Share Posted November 3, 2022 GFS and its ensemble is so much colder than the other models that it’s hard to take seriously. Could happen I guess. The mean drops below -10C for SW BC, could produce some record cold if it verifies. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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