December 2016 Observations and Model Discussion for the Pacific Northwest

[bainbridgekid]

00z NAM keeps all the shower activity tonight West of the Sound.

[MossMan]

00z NAM keeps all the shower activity tonight West of the Sound.

I have a bad feeling it will be right.

[luminen]

Still snowing here. 

[snow_wizard]

I have a bad feeling it will be right.

 

There are always surprises in cases like this.  And it's the NAM.

[snow_wizard]

Right now I would put the chances at 50% for the bigger cold wave next week.  Quite a bit of support for it.

[Jbolin]

2008 Memories...

 

Here a few memories from our Dec. 2008 event here in the swamp highlands. This was at the height of it when we had the most snow. Fond Memories... What I loved the most is it stuck around for so long and did not rain on it after it fell. Was literally perfect and super fun. 

 

IMG_5704.jpeg

 

IMG_5705.jpeg

 

IMG_5725.jpeg

 

IMG_5694.jpeg

Is that an Astro van?  

[Jesse]

00z NAM keeps all the shower activity tonight West of the Sound.

 

And hopefully curving inland right over Portland

[HighlandExperience]

Right now I would put the chances at 50% for the bigger cold wave next week.  Quite a bit of support for it.

 

I want snow tonight. Next week is a mirage. =)

[catnip]

Total snowfall so far.

[TT-SEA]

Total snowfall so far.

 

 

Wow!

[westcoastexpat]

Total snowfall so far.

 

[bainbridgekid]

Looks like things are about to get interesting in Bellingham.

 

http://www.atmos.washington.edu/weather/radar.shtml

[SilverFallsAndrew]

NAM says...

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/namconus/2016120600/namconus_ref_frzn_nwus_41.png

[Timmy]

NAM says...

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/namconus/2016120600/namconus_ref_frzn_nwus_41.png

Snow!

[seattleweatherguy]

NAM says...

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/namconus/2016120600/namconus_ref_frzn_nwus_41.png

Good for Oregon bad for north seattle!

[Randyc321]

That little orange area on Bainbridge is right where I live.

 

[Jesse]

Hopefully the northern Oregon Coast Range is on weight watchers tonight.

[Bham_Guy]

Looks like things are about to get interesting in Bellingham.

 

http://www.atmos.washington.edu/weather/radar.shtml

 

It's moving painfully slow though.

[TT-SEA]

Looks like things are about to get interesting in Bellingham.

 

http://www.atmos.washington.edu/weather/radar.shtml

 

Not sure about that... I have seen bands like that just sit offshore up there without ever moving inland.   Might be caused by deformation on the north side of the low interacting with the islands and the water.

[FroYoBro]

Hopefully the northern Oregon Coast Range is on weight watchers tonight.

 

I'm too old to play this game. Better to ignore the radar and hope you wake up to a small surprise. 

[TT-SEA]

Just checked the 12Z ECMWF again.   It keeps the precip around Bellingham this evening offshore while totally dry inland all night.   

 

Also.... the magical King County c-zone or deformation zone is supposed to be going strong by 10 p.m. so it better hurry up.  

[bainbridgekid]

It's moving painfully slow though.

 

True, but that's a good thing assuming it finally reaches you.

Not sure about that... I have seen bands like that just sit offshore up there without ever moving inland.   Might be caused by deformation on the north side of the low interacting with the islands and the water.

True, but it's reached Fairhaven now. The bulk of it may stay West, but it sure looks like it's going to start snowing in Bellingham soon.

 

Definitely true that it will be turning more Northerly the longer it goes though. Clear rotation of the showers around a meso-low spinning around Southern Vancouver Island. The showers South of Vancouver are moving nearly due West.

 

EDIT: Yeah the flow is definitely turning back West around the low. Going to just graze Bellingham.

[Jesse]

I'm too old to play this game. Better to ignore the radar and hope you wake up to a small surprise. 

 

You just got a big boy sticker. Congratulations.

[Kayla]

00z NAM sure keeps a lot of precip going for the PDX area through tomorrow morning.

[FroYoBro]

You just got a big boy sticker. Congratulations.

 

Nah. I only do it out of fear, not courage. I haven't earned it yet. 

[luvssnow_spokane]

Is that an Astro van?

Yah!! We are rock'n the 1990 Astro van. In fact all my kids used it as their main vehicle while in high school and my youngest is a senior this year and drives it everyday for school. Just keeps running!

[Jesse]

Nah. I only do it out of fear, not courage. I haven't earned it yet.

D**n, I was gonna like the crap out of this but just hit my quota for the day.

[MossMan]

Yah!! We are rock'n the 1990 Astro van. In fact all my kids used it as their main vehicle while in high school and my youngest is a senior this year and drives it everyday for school. Just keeps running!

That thing will run forever! Those 4.3 Liters are epically long lasting...unlike our snow.

[mountainman]

Hey Jesse...any snow at ur place?

[Goducks09]

Showers approaching PDX metro... How about some snow for a change? 

[HighlandExperience]

Just checked the 12Z ECMWF again.   It keeps the precip around Bellingham this evening offshore while totally dry inland all night.   

 

Also.... the magical King County c-zone or deformation zone is supposed to be going strong by 10 p.m. so it better hurry up.  

 

Let us hope it is right... 

[jcmcgaffey]

Too bad it wasn't a couple degrees cooler here. It's been raining pretty hard here north of seattle for the last 3-4 hours but no snow. Isn't that the epitome of a seattle winter 33 degrees and rain? In this case it has fluctuated between 34 and 37. I think it's a form of Chinese torchure...

[Jesse]

Hey Jesse...any snow at ur place?

Just a little earlier. We had a dusting in the late morning but nothing since.

[HighlandExperience]

Too bad it wasn't a couple degrees cooler here. It's been raining pretty hard here north of seattle for the last 3-4 hours but no snow. Isn't that the epitome of a seattle winter 33 degrees and rain? In this case it has fluctuated between 34 and 37. I think it's a form of Chinese torchure...

 

Depressing. 

[luvssnow_spokane]

This event is living up to my expectations for my location. Hope a lot of u get snow but I am going to pretty much write it off my area for this first (possibly last) warning shot. Maybe a little overrunning slop to look forward to. Possibly next week but I am highly skeptical.

[FroYoBro]

It is snowing at 200 feet at Staley's Junction on 26.

[Goducks09]

It is snowing at 200 feet at Staley's Junction on 26.

 

This bodes well for the rest of us.  Although, it was snowing over there this AM but rained in Portland proper...  We shall see!

[MikeInEverett]

Hoping that band of precip north of Seattle moves north over to me, doubt it though.

[Deweydog]

Not snowing here.  

[Poulsbo Snowman]

Perhaps a secondary CZ forming near Seattle.