Perturbed Member Posted December 10, 2016 Report Share Posted December 10, 2016 Hmmm, I thought models were showing highs in the mid to upper thirties. Interesting...http://lmgcorporate.com/kptv/weather/ibs_web_7-day.jpg Indeed very rare to see Mark put that on the 7 day this far out. He almost always ignores long range cold on the models. Either he's been drinking or we're in for some fun. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chopper 918 Posted December 10, 2016 Report Share Posted December 10, 2016 Am I weird for really liking the 18z? Nothing wrong with liking it cold, dry and windy. Beats the hell out of 45 and rain every single day. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chopper 918 Posted December 10, 2016 Report Share Posted December 10, 2016 http://lmgcorporate.com/kptv/weather/ibs_web_7-day.jpg Indeed very rare to see Mark put that on the 7 day this far out. He almost always ignores long range cold on the models. Either he's been drinking or we're in for some fun. It is weird...he must think we are going to get snow in that time period. He kept referring to it in his broadcast last night. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted December 10, 2016 Report Share Posted December 10, 2016 I still have some cold air for anyone that wants it. No need for it here with almost no snow to preserve. Still only 31 degrees. Never topped freezing today. I do have quite a layer of ice hanging around. 1 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted December 10, 2016 Report Share Posted December 10, 2016 NWS going with 2"+ for Whatcom County tonight as Fraser outflow continues. Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Goducks09 Posted December 10, 2016 Report Share Posted December 10, 2016 http://lmgcorporate.com/kptv/weather/ibs_web_7-day.jpg Indeed very rare to see Mark put that on the 7 day this far out. He almost always ignores long range cold on the models. Either he's been drinking or we're in for some fun.Looks like he's not latching onto anything for tues/wed just yet. Has potential though! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted December 10, 2016 Report Share Posted December 10, 2016 Things could end up colder than the upper levels would indicate at the surface thanks to healthy snow cover in the Columbia Basin and the Gorge. Little doubt the 18z would be cold at the surface. Some extremely favorable surface pressure gradients being depicted. For here very weak easterly works the best and that's what's shown. If we could somehow manage to have snow going into it things could get really cold. 1 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MR.SNOWMIZER Posted December 10, 2016 Report Share Posted December 10, 2016 Am I weird for really liking the 18z?Hell no! Quote We come from the land of the ice and snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted December 10, 2016 Report Share Posted December 10, 2016 14 inches on the ground here. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Perturbed Member Posted December 10, 2016 Report Share Posted December 10, 2016 Crazy...any chance the mid layers cool back down below freezing to cool the entire column? GFS had 925mb temps of +4c at this hour over PDX and should drop to +2c in the coming hours, but they are not supposed to get cold enough for anything interesting until maybe Monday at the earliest. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted December 10, 2016 Report Share Posted December 10, 2016 The warning shot has lost its luster. That's the problem with weenies and warning shots. The second we hear gunfire we're strapping on Kevlar vests and helmets and busting out the tourniquets. Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted December 10, 2016 Report Share Posted December 10, 2016 Chances are if the GFS is correct in building the block too far east for us to get moisture there's a decent chance it will back up a bit later in the month. I still think a likely incorrect MJO forecast is the culprit with the GFS putting the block to far east all of a sudden. Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Perturbed Member Posted December 10, 2016 Report Share Posted December 10, 2016 I still have some cold air for anyone that wants it. No need for it here with almost no snow to preserve. Still only 31 degrees. Never topped freezing today. I do have quite a layer of ice hanging around. Surface level cold air is abundant for most of us, I hit 34 briefly and am back to freezing. If you have anything to fix the warm air aloft though, that would be appreciated. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted December 10, 2016 Report Share Posted December 10, 2016 Chances are if the GFS is correct in building the block too far east for us to get moisture there's a decent chance it will back up a bit later in the month. I still a likely incorrect MJO forecast is the culprit with the GFS putting the block to far east all of a sudden. right in Phil s timeframe Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighlandExperience Posted December 10, 2016 Report Share Posted December 10, 2016 Chances are if the GFS is correct in building the block too far east for us to get moisture there's a decent chance it will back up a bit later in the month. I still think a likely incorrect MJO forecast is the culprit with the GFS putting the block to far east all of a sudden.Just feels like we have to score sometime in the next 2-3 weeks, before January comes. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Perturbed Member Posted December 10, 2016 Report Share Posted December 10, 2016 Looks like he's not latching onto anything for tues/wed just yet. Has potential though! Not enough model agreement for that. Maybe if the euro shows snow for another run or two and if the GFS trends in that direction. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted December 10, 2016 Report Share Posted December 10, 2016 Down to 31.9° here. Things are icing up again as night has fallen. Flurries flying again. Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heavy Snow Posted December 10, 2016 Report Share Posted December 10, 2016 Hoping the Gorge wont thaw out much before colder air returns early next week. Models have underestimated the low level cold once again. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted December 10, 2016 Report Share Posted December 10, 2016 Latest Seattle AFD is still mentioning snow with the Arctic boundary sliding through Puget Sound on Monday....yet nobody is talking about that...is it bogus info? Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MR.SNOWMIZER Posted December 10, 2016 Report Share Posted December 10, 2016 14 inches on the ground here.dude its going to snow there on and off all weekend Quote We come from the land of the ice and snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted December 10, 2016 Report Share Posted December 10, 2016 dude its going to snow there on and off all weekend No... I know this goes. Precip will end tomorrow morning... then we get a SW wind and warm air with rain some showers... then maybe some light snow as we turn cold again Monday and the flow goes offshore. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted December 10, 2016 Report Share Posted December 10, 2016 The 18z is December 2005 on steriods Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted December 10, 2016 Report Share Posted December 10, 2016 Wind switch and SLE just dropped 10 degrees in the past hour! Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Perturbed Member Posted December 10, 2016 Report Share Posted December 10, 2016 The 18z NAVGEM also showing something the EURO showed, granted a little slower. Shows a Low sending moisture through Oregon and into Washington Tuesday night/Wednesday morning. This map just shows precipitation, not type but it would most likely be all snow for PDX Metro and North as it pulls cold gorge east winds as it heads east. Does the NAVGEM have much credibility? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted December 10, 2016 Report Share Posted December 10, 2016 The 18z is December 2005 on steriods It would be in a totally different class. Funny thing is, it may only end up as cold as that, though. The air mass stays pretty well mixed but never gets exceedingly cold, at least at face value. Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted December 10, 2016 Report Share Posted December 10, 2016 14 inches on the ground here. Wow. You might have 18"+ by tomorrow morning. Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BLI snowman Posted December 10, 2016 Report Share Posted December 10, 2016 Just feels like we have to score sometime in the next 2-3 weeks, before January comes. January will be a nightmare most likely, but February should put out. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bryant Posted December 10, 2016 Report Share Posted December 10, 2016 Does the NAVGEM have much credibility?It's only used when it shows something good 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted December 10, 2016 Report Share Posted December 10, 2016 Arctic front has moved through Salem. Down 10 degrees in the last hour, should be into the teens by 8pm. Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winterdog Posted December 10, 2016 Report Share Posted December 10, 2016 Latest Seattle AFD is still mentioning snow with the Arctic boundary sliding through Puget Sound on Monday....yet nobody is talking about that...is it bogus info?why discuss it.. it's in the clown range. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighlandExperience Posted December 10, 2016 Report Share Posted December 10, 2016 why discuss it.. it's in the clown range.Mm no it's this Monday. That is reasonably close. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MR.SNOWMIZER Posted December 10, 2016 Report Share Posted December 10, 2016 Arctic front has moved through Salem. Down 10 degrees in the last hour, should be into the teens by 8pm.Rod hill was right again!! Quote We come from the land of the ice and snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bryant Posted December 10, 2016 Report Share Posted December 10, 2016 why discuss it.. it's in the clown range.3 days is clown range? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winterdog Posted December 10, 2016 Report Share Posted December 10, 2016 Mm no it's this Monday. That is reasonably close.I rest my case. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kayla Posted December 10, 2016 Report Share Posted December 10, 2016 Wow, when do you think you might start finally thawing out? Honestly thought I'd thaw out early this afternoon but now I would say not until we get that true south wind surge tomorrow afternoon. Have about 1.25" of ice here now with more ZR on the way so I'm afraid it's going to be a long night for all the trees and other vegetation. Quote Cold Season 2023/24: Total snowfall: 26" Highest daily snowfall: 5" Deepest snow depth: 12" Coldest daily high: -20ºF Coldest daily low: -42ºF Number of subzero days: 5 Personal Weather Station on Wunderground: https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=KMTBOZEM152#history Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted December 10, 2016 Report Share Posted December 10, 2016 why discuss it.. it's in the clown range.3 days is clown range these days? 1 Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted December 10, 2016 Report Share Posted December 10, 2016 Wow. You might have 18"+ by tomorrow morning. Yeah... if its all snow tonight. Wondering if we might change to freezing rain though. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winterdog Posted December 10, 2016 Report Share Posted December 10, 2016 3 days is clown range?Lately yes! 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted December 10, 2016 Report Share Posted December 10, 2016 January will be a nightmare most likely, but February should put out. Or we could see things go more the 1948-49, 1961-62, 1970-71, 1971-72, 1978-79, 1984-85, 1992-93 route. It's been awhile, but a consistently cold, blocky winter all the way into February is due. 2008-09 was the closest in recent years, but January wasn't cold. Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Perturbed Member Posted December 10, 2016 Report Share Posted December 10, 2016 It's only used when it shows something good So same level as the JMA then. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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