January 2017 Observations and Model Discussion for the Pacific Northwest

[Kayla]

I like where this is headed.

[Perturbed Member]

I like where this is headed.

 

You buying into the euro? 

[Parksvillewx]

38F here currently with a 16F dewpoint. East winds starting to pick up.

[Timmy Supercell]

Just about 5 minutes ago here. A brief period of some of the heaviest snow I've seen since last winter.

 

http://i65.tinypic.com/2hn96vo.jpg

 

http://i64.tinypic.com/2lwllk1.jpg

 

Now just light blowing snow a few minutes after taking these.

[luvssnow_spokane]

Looking at number of reporting stations I am not seeing any semblance of an arctic front at all. Pathetic... long range GFS is horrid... Euro Dry and possibly marginal cold, GEM - Same... SO much epic OR and barely memorable for the handful that got snow up here... So much promise, in fact the most promise we have had in decades and it looks to all go to s**t... So sad!

[BLI snowman]

I could definitely go for an afternoon graupel storm. 

 

Now all snow, CAA has done its job since this morning.

[luvssnow_spokane]

Just about 5 minutes ago here. A brief period of some of the heaviest snow I've seen since last winter.

 

http://i65.tinypic.com/2hn96vo.jpg

 

http://i64.tinypic.com/2lwllk1.jpg

 

Now just light blowing snow a few minutes after taking these.

Awesome! I have not seen it snow that hard in over 4 years. That is beautiful!! WOW!!

[Heavy Snow]

For anybody not getting any snow today, the 18z NAM wants to send a system up here on Wednesday.

 

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/nam/2017010118/078/refcmp_ptype.us_nw.png

[Goducks09]

A balmy 39 degrees downtown with bright sunshine.  Ugh.

[Jesse]

There are quite a few high ridges/peaks surrounding the Lewis River and Kalama River basins. Some over 2000', which generally blocks a lot of this lower level stuff that comes in from the NNW.

Yeah, for being well to the west of the main Cascades there is some pretty high, rugged terrain in that area.

[TT-SEA]

Sun is out now at SEA... looks like the snow is melting.   Much less impressive looking on the traffic cams.

[Kayla]

You buying into the euro? 

 

Looks like it's headed that way. Lots of moisture is still hung up in the area as that low has become pretty stagnant. I suppose we shouldn't be all that surprised as these arctic fronts always come in slower than modeled.

[FroYoBro]

A balmy 39 degrees downtown with bright sunshine.  Ugh.

 

Doesn't really matter much. It was always going to be fairly mild today. Almost up to 41 here. 

[Perturbed Member]

That low on the 18z NAM better not go way north the way it does on the GFS. It is looking kind of similar to the GFS in that frame. 

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/namconus/2017010118/namconus_ref_frzn_nwus_52.png

[Kayla]

A balmy 39 degrees downtown with bright sunshine.  Ugh.

 

850mb temps at -7c and 925mb are approaching -3c now. Any steady showers should drop temps down around freezing once they arrive.

[Perturbed Member]

Looks like it's headed that way. Lots of moisture is still hung up in the area as that low has become pretty stagnant. I suppose we shouldn't be all that surprised as these arctic fronts always come in slower than modeled.

 

Yeah, temps sure are looking mild now though. I'm in the upper 30s. Might work with some half decent precip rates and a bit more CAA. 

 

 

EDIT: Nevermind, -3c 925mb should get the job done.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

That low on the 18z NAM better not go way north the way it does on the GFS. It is looking kind of similar to the GFS in that frame.

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/namconus/2017010118/namconus_ref_frzn_nwus_52.png

isn't the NAM based off the gfs

[Brennan]

Hasn't dropped below freezing at all yet at BLI.. lowest it got last night was 33*f. Unbelievable. Gusting out of the NE right now to 30 here.. 36*f...

 

 

What happened to the arctic blasts of the pasy that dropped the temp from 40 to 20 in 6 hours.???

[Timmy Supercell]

The clouds must be very thin. Filtered sun now and stopped snowing.

 

Oh, also edited one of the above snow pictures I posted.

oi67.tinypic.com/1673wpd.jpg

[MossMan]

Things are a melting!!

[epiceast]

Seems like Industrial area in NW Portland, west hills and maybe even the highway/downtown Vancouver and some North Portland could get in on the wraparound action.

[Perturbed Member]

18z RGEM has trended much wetter for this afternoon/evening compared to the 12z run. Maybe a 2-3 hour burst of some decent precip.

 

It does show it as all rain in PDX. We'll see...

 

4PM

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/rgem/2017010118/rgem_mslp_pcpn_frzn_nwus_2.png

[TT-SEA]

Things are a melting!!

 

 

Arctic air blasting in Randy... no melting possible!  

[Perturbed Member]

isn't the NAM based off the gfs

 

Unsure what relationship they have if any. I believe the NAM has entirely different physics.

[snow drift]

Where?

Coeur d' Alene area

[bainbridgekid]

Just landed at Seatac and there's definitely a solid 2" on the ground here.

 

Unfortunately that is delaying us because they are STILL removing snow from the taxiways backing up all the arrivals.

[FroYoBro]

The radar is looking very interesting for the Vancouver area. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Arctic air blasting in Randy... no melting possible!

No need to rub salt in Jim s wounds

[SilverFallsAndrew]

For the first time I reached my quota of likes in a day!

[Jesse]

Just had a shower of the biggest graupel I've ever seen. Some bean sized pellets mixed in. Ouch.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Just had a shower of the biggest graupel I've ever seen. Some bean sized pellets mixed in. Ouch.

Wear a hard hat!!!

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

The picking on jim is old and fukking childish. He probably forgot more about our local climate than most of you will ever know.

[dairyd]

Hasn't dropped below freezing at all yet at BLI.. lowest it got last night was 33*f. Unbelievable. Gusting out of the NE right now to 30 here.. 36*f...

 

 

What happened to the arctic blasts of the pasy that dropped the temp from 40 to 20 in 6 hours.???

 

Looking at the satt the arctic front is rushing south, outflow this time is just ahead of it because of the low pulling it through.  Timing wise it just means it is pulling through air in the 30's instead of the 20's.  It will happen tonight.  NAM is 20 degrees colder this time tomorrow.

[MikeInEverett]

Woke up to a melting half inch of snow.. Maybe next time.

[luvssnow_spokane]

18z is running!! Bring you drunk bastard!

[luvssnow_spokane]

E to SE winds have been pretty gusty here today.

[Jesse]

Wear a hard hat!!!

My beanie offered adequate protection.

[MossMan]

I guess this is warning shot #4 that is starting to melt. I just hope we can get the dry air coming south soon before my snow is gone! Still have about an inch but melting off the trees rapidly now at 33 degrees.

[TT-SEA]

Just had a shower of the biggest graupel I've ever seen. Some bean sized pellets mixed in. Ouch.

 

 

No more likes for me... but I like!

[TT-SEA]

E to SE winds have been pretty gusty here today.

 

 

Really?   Not even a hint of a breeze here today.     29 degrees.