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January 2017 Observations and Model Discussion for the Pacific Northwest

Goducks09

By Goducks09
in West of the Rockies

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Tyler Mode
Tyler Mode

The state of the snow now 4 days after it fell.    I've never seen such staying power in our snow with sunny days as well!  2008 it stuck around a long time but it was pretty much socked in the entire

Jesse
Jesse

Some pictures from the Fort Vancouver Historic Site today.  

Bryant
Bryant

Went ice skating on Cain Lake and Lake Whatcom today with Brennan and Mattias (Bainbridgekid). Cain lake was a good 5-6" thick and we skated from one end to the other with no worries. The lake is a re

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luvssnow_spokane Community Regular

luvssnow_spokane

Posted
Posted

This run may bring some Puget Sounders back...

Doubtful... needs to be more believable range. This is pure vaporware. Dangling carrots ... been there done that at least a couple dozen times this winter. Give me that forecast 2 days out then maybe.

My Weather Station

https://tempestwx.com/station/61434

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Phil Grand Master

Phil

Posted
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Early February always had potential. With the major SSW ongoing, you're going to get wild model swings as the nature of the tropical convective response to decreased static stability becomes clearer.

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foto26446a4f1f801ef3b3d1564dea31df66.png
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SilverFallsAndrew Grand Master

SilverFallsAndrew

Posted
Posted

Well that was fun...

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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VancouverIslandSouth Experienced

VancouverIslandSouth

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Wow, that was quite the 0z run, even better with the ECMWF having been hinting at such a transition the past few runs. Also, things are still looking good for a Puget Sound / SW BC overrunning event Thursday evening ~ Friday. The ECMWF was the first to bring the low sharply north on Thursday/Friday (albeit we have a bit of a ways to go here), could it be the first to pickup on the colder transition as well?

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Brennan Rising Star

Brennan

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Posted

Wow, that was quite the 0z run, even better with the ECMWF having been hinting at such a transition the past few runs. Also, things are still looking good for a Puget Sound / SW BC overrunning event Thursday evening ~ Friday. The ECMWF was the first to bring the low sharply north on Thursday/Friday (albeit we have a bit of a ways to go here), could it be the first to pickup on the colder transition as well?

Maybe that low will stall around southern vancouver island instead of going north into the queen charlottes... and thennnn sag south per 0z gfs
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luvssnow_spokane Community Regular

luvssnow_spokane

Posted
Posted

Early February always had potential. With the major SSW ongoing, you're going to get wild model swings as the nature of the tropical convective response to decreased static stability becomes clearer.

Yep, one reason is as we get into the believable range I will buy it. I expect nothing good from model runs beyond 2 or 3 days and even that may be stretching things a bit.

My Weather Station

https://tempestwx.com/station/61434

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Perturbed Member Grand Master

Perturbed Member

Posted
Posted

GEM looks quite different from the GFS following the mid week low, but eventually brings the cold. 

http://maps3.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/ggem/2017013100/186/500h_anom.na.png

 

 

Snowmageddon coming to SEA

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gem/2017013100/gem_asnow_nwus_30.png

 

 

Just for fun

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gem/2017013100/gem_asnow_nwus_40.png

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SilverFallsAndrew Grand Master

SilverFallsAndrew

Posted
Posted

Massive ensemble improvement... Operational was not an outlier...

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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