PNW December 2022, winter might be coming; but mostly canceled.

[Everleigh]

2 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

No kids of mine..

The eldest has turned into a Grinch about snow, cause he has to drive in it to get to work. I *AM* thinking about dis-owning him.....

[Meatyorologist]

This conversation just made me miss my lightrail stop...

[Meatyorologist]

7 minutes ago, RentonHillTC said:

My sister beat my a** one year because I stepped outside of her footprints before we got to the street. Must have been 1996

Serves you right

[RentonHill]

ICON not running on tidbits. Suspicious

[MWG]

We don't have kids but we have a dog and can't get mad seeing the doggo playing in the snow. 

[Snownerd3000]

I don't know. I feel like we're going to have continued model discrepancy until at least the weekend, af least when it comes to gfs/euro. Would love ro see more EPS/Gefs support too. 

[LowerGarfield]

Light dusting last night. Really just a trace. But this wasn't expected to have much.

[RentonHill]

6 minutes ago, RentonHillTC said:

ICON not running on tidbits. Suspicious

There it is

[TT-SEA]

3 minutes ago, RentonHillTC said:

There it is

Definitely not as good through Sunday.

[TT-SEA]

19 minutes ago, Everleigh said:

Mine are 15, 16 and 20 now, so they really don't want to go out in it. The dogs on the other hand are the ones that mess up my perfect snow! lol

Yes... the dog is also an issue here.    Just makes a mess of the snow in no time.

[Nov1985]

33 minutes ago, ShawniganLake said:

Hopefully it gets cold enough that the kids won’t want to go outside

Last nights ECMWF was the warmest in a while. And I see other forecasts warmed for weekend through Tue as well. So I think we get to choose here big cold or big snow, but not both.  EDIT - last night's run was colder later in the run.

 

 

[van city]

Dont look at the ICON. 

[yellowstone]

2 minutes ago, Nov1985 said:

Last nights ECMWF was the warmest in a while. And I see other forecasts warmed for weekend through Tue as well. So I think we get to choose here big cold or big snow, but not both. 

 

This looks like yesterdays 12z not last nights 0z. Point may still stand but looks like you attached wrong graphic. 

[TT-SEA]

4 minutes ago, van city said:

Dont look at the ICON. 

Ridiculously wet... but too warm.  

One thing that is becoming more consistent across all the models is copious undercutting moisture plowing into the PNW next week.    Devil in the details with how much cold air gets in place first and the strength of the warm push.  Generally speaking that is a recipe for an ice storm somewhere.    Not an issue on the ICON which warms it up fast.

[RentonHill]

1 minute ago, TT-SEA said:

Ridiculously wet... but too warm.  

One thing that is becoming more consistent across all the models is copious undercutting moisture plowing into the PNW next week.    Devil in the details with how much cold air gets in place first and the strength of the warm push.  Generally speaking that is a recipe for an ice storm somewhere.    Not an issue on the ICON which warms it up fast.

I think arctic cold is completely off table. Probably heavy snow and heavy rain a lock now. Just how much and where is tbd

[Nov1985]

1 minute ago, yellowstone said:

This looks like yesterdays 12z not last nights 0z. Point may still stand but looks like you attached wrong graphic. 

Doh fixed. Need your eagle eyes when I do my taxes next time. Thanks!

[Phishy Wx]

Bonus snow overnight, around 1.5-2" still coming down.  Lol local news at 11pm said a 'skiff of snow at most'

[Everleigh]

34.3° and its trying to.....rain? There are drops of something wet lightly falling, but nada on radar.....

[MossMan]

I’m good with a Jan 2012 redux! My Jetta was buried! 
And yeah try having multiple kids AND dogs…Untouched snow doesn’t have a chance. Though the side yard where the dogs can’t get to and the kids don’t really go to either is usually our pure untouched area! 
Currently 30 degrees.  

[Terreboner]

1 minute ago, Phishy Wx said:

Bonus snow overnight, around 1.5-2" still coming down.  Lol local news at 11pm said a 'skiff of snow at most'

Pendleton AFD was on top of it.  They said that short wave was growing increasingly wetter.  It's cloudy here and the sky almost looks like snow but not happening.

[Terreboner]

And what is up with the "all of a sudden" warm bias with the GooFuS?????  It's almost as if Poindexter from IT went in a few days ago and adjusted some algorithms.

[Brian_in_Leavenworth]

50 minutes ago, yellowstone said:

That’s looking dramatically better than yesterdays 12z spaghetti chart!

Yesterday's 12z chart was for 15 days, this is for only 6 days.  So did you mean better for those 6 days?

[Cascadia_Wx]

Foggy and 35 this morning after a low of 33.

[LowerGarfield]

 

 

Woke up to a trace but didn't measure. It's now starting to pick up and accumulate again. NWS Spokane says we have a chance for maybe an inch today.

[ShawniganLake]

27 minutes ago, RentonHillTC said:

ICON not running on tidbits. Suspicious

I wish it hadn’t run or at least I hadn’t looked at it.  

[yellowstone]

4 minutes ago, Brian_in_Leavenworth said:

Yesterday's 12z chart was for 15 days, this is for only 6 days.  So did you mean better for those 6 days?

Yes

[TT-SEA]

2 minutes ago, LowerGarfield said:

 

 

Woke up to a trace but didn't measure. It's now starting to pick up and accumulate again. NWS Spokane says we have a chance for maybe an inch today.

Did not even notice that snow over there in the models.   Most of the WSU students are heading home today for the holiday break including my son.    Hwy 26 is snow covered all the way to Vantage.   Hope it gets better during the day.  

[SnarkyGoblin]

Block on the GFS just a tad south....maybe?

[MWG]

Currently 34F and cloudy seems like it was cloudy and misty all night so temps didn't went from 30F.

I don't mind not having snow for xmas but please not this spring like weather! I hope this changes. 

[Terreboner]

4 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Did not even notice that snow over there in the models.   Most of the WSU students are heading home today for the holiday break including my son.    Hwy 26 is snow covered all the way to Vantage.   Hope it gets better during the day.  

Was supposed to be a mainly orographic event but trended stronger last night.

[jcmcgaffey]

I feel like deep cold arctic fronts have been more rare but the larger snowstorms have been more common over the years. This makes sense if long term we are getting warmer and wetter. Some of the events in recent years may have have been drier colder events but these days turn into warmer snowier events.

[Timmy]

Icon cancels winter

[MossMan]

Anyone else nervous about todays model runs? Stupid ICON

[Timmy]

This might be the model battle of our generation. 

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

The gfs possible has had this figured out for days. If so I'm impressed. 

[TT-SEA]

1 minute ago, MossMan said:

Anyone else nervous about todays model runs? Stupid ICON

12Z GFS also trending farther north and warmer... at least so far.

Since when does the GFS have a problem aggressively sending cold air southward??  

[FroYoBro]

The GFS has the 540 thickness line past pdx on Monday! 
 

YESSSSSSSSSSSSSSSS!!!!!!

[LowerGarfield]

6 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Did not even notice that snow over there in the models.   Most of the WSU students are heading home today for the holiday break including my son.    Hwy 26 is snow covered all the way to Vantage.   Hope it gets better during the day.  

I bet you're excited for the snow but also a bit concerned for his safety too. Should tapper off here in the afternoon per Spokane AFD but it's also very compact snow.

[BLI snowman]

Just now, TT-SEA said:

12Z GFS also trending farther north and warmer... at least so far.

Since when does the GFS have a problem aggressively sending cold air southward??  

When the Little Ice Age loving Goofus can't get on board at all with something besides climo, it's probably a bad sign. Regardless of the Euro. 

[Christensen87]

I feel like GFS has to be correct, unfortunately. It’s just the most realistic. I’m not looking forward to a moment where Euro caves…

CAUTIOUSLY OPTIMISTIC!