PNW December 2022 - Part II

[bainbridgekid]

Heavy sticking snow in Arlington and Smokey Point per webcams.

[MossMan]

Temp down to 32.6

[CliffMassYelledAtMe]

14 minutes ago, MossMan said:

I heard that a quarter inch and more starts doing damage. 

I have heard that too, but Im sure there must be complicating factors. Less ice but higher winds are probably even more damaging. Sloppy, wet, heavy snow with a thin layer of ice also has to be damaging. 

We lost half of a double trunk tree very early in the 2012 ice storm before we had a big accumulation so I think the rule of thumb just depends. (That half fell towards the street, while the other half would have fallen on our house where the kids were playing has made me *very* wary of zr.)

[snow_wizard]

If we ever needed a GFS / ECMWF compromise the time is now!  OLM to SEA are on the bubble now unfortunately.  

The good news for King County folks is the ECMWF still has some backwash snow on the back side of the low Tuesday night.  That stuff is often underdone.  Still a decent chance the entire event will be snow, but a fair chance it won't be also.

[snow_wizard]

2 minutes ago, CliffMassYelledAtMe said:

I have heard that too, but Im sure there must be complicating factors. Less ice but higher winds are probably even more damaging. Sloppy, wet, heavy snow with a thin layer of ice also has to be damaging. 

We lost half of a double trunk tree very early in the 2012 ice storm before we had a big accumulation so I think the rule of thumb just depends. (That half fell towards the street, while the other half would have fallen on our house where the kids were playing has made me *very* wary of zr.)

Still a decent shot of avoiding heavy accumulations of that.

[Front Ranger]

14 minutes ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

19 in Ferndale, sumas, Lynden.  This outflow is the real deal so hopefully it can move south.

BLI already down to 23. Seems ahead of schedule.

[MossMan]

Our family Lake Goodwin lake house must be a snow globe at the moment. Getting brighter here unfortunately. 

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

3 minutes ago, Front Ranger said:

BLI already down to 23. Seems ahead of schedule.

Ya the forecast for high in upper 20's low 30's is a bust.

[Brian_in_Leavenworth]

25 minutes ago, Hawksfan2008 said:

I have never experienced a significant ice storm. How much does it take around here to cause big issues? 

Like Randy said, a quarter inch or more.   Branches start to break, you get power outages, etc.

One thing though is if the precip starts as accumulating snow, the freezing rain on top of snow on the road is a lot better than freezing rain falling on bare pavement.  So driving in that situation is not as bad.  But freezing rain falling on tree branches full of snow makes that situation worse.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

4 minutes ago, Front Ranger said:

BLI already down to 23. Seems ahead of schedule.

I'm surprised how little the wind is blowing with the gradient right now. Pretty strange.  I think last I looked it was around 17mb Bellingham to Williams lake.

[Rubus Leucodermis]

A temporary lull in the action after getting about 2.5". Sledding has begun in the park across the street.

[Kolk1604]

EPS is actually better at this hour than the 00z run 

[Skagit Weather]

Heavy snow and 35F with the temp dropping like a rock so we may get some accumulation before the moisture runs out.

[snow_wizard]

8 minutes ago, Front Ranger said:

BLI already down to 23. Seems ahead of schedule.

It seems like the ECMWF is a bit anemic with the CAA, and the GFS might be too aggressive.  A compromise would work for many of us.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Jim how does the 7 degrees at Lytton compare to other outflows? Pretty cold!

[Hawksfan2008]

NBM

[BLI snowman]

35 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Looks like the freezing rain threat is gone when the next band of moisture arrives on Saturday morning but this going to be a real mess in the gorge.

 

No question that the wimpy onshore push the Euro shows would do little or nothing to scour our PDX on Saturday, in that scenario. Takes more than 10mph WSW winds aloft to mix out a thoroughly entrenched low level cold pool that advects them down to 15.

[Rubus Leucodermis]

5 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

It seems like the ECMWF is a bit anemic with the CAA, and the GFS might be too aggressive.  A compromise would work for many of us.

Euro was almost dead on with the arrival time, however. Missed by only an hour.

[BLI snowman]

19 minutes ago, antipex said:

Absolutely dumping now with occasional NNE breezes. Front is almost here. 11F with NE wind just 28 miles away.

11 degrees before the front feels like a different universe......

[BLI snowman]

18 minutes ago, Front Ranger said:

BLI already down to 23. Seems ahead of schedule.

12z Euro had them at 28 at 10am, at which time they were 24. Never a bad sign, and this ongoing model war craziness is one time where nowcasting seems more useful than ever.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Can someone check the temp output on euro for Bellingham today?

[Hawksfan2008]

Control pretty close to the operational with a slight jump north. 

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Just now, BLI snowman said:

12z Euro had them at 28 at 10am, at which time they were 24. Never a bad sign, and this ongoing model war craziness is one time where nowcasting seems more useful than ever.

We were thinking the same thing.

[bainbridgekid]

5 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

11 degrees before the front feels like a different universe......

I think he meant it’s 11 degrees 28 miles North of him where the front has already moved through.

[runninthruda206]

1 minute ago, Hawksfan2008 said:

Control pretty close to the operational with a slight jump north. 

ill take this all day with freezing temps on the backend 

[MikeInEverett]

Radar looks good up north too. Taking a drive up towards Bellingham with the wife in a couple hours. Hoping for snow all the way back on the drive home!!

[Kolk1604]

2 minutes ago, Hawksfan2008 said:

Control pretty close to the operational with a slight jump north. 

Outlier surface Temps are too warm

[SouthHillFrosty]

I’m starting to get nervous about this event. 

[Guest hawkstwelve]

43 minutes ago, MossMan said:

I heard that a quarter inch and more starts doing damage. 

The 1996 storm brought a quarter inch to Bonney Lake and wrecked just about every tree and power pole.

In 2017 we have a tenth of an inch outside of Philly, it sagged power lines but was enough to give a pretty glaze to the sleet piles that had built up. Those piles lasted for a couple weeks in mid 40s weather.

[BLI snowman]

1 minute ago, bainbridgekid said:

I think he meant it’s 11 degrees 28 miles North of him where the front has already moved through.

That makes sense. He did mention his temp was 22 a few hours ago. Still a different universe!

[seattleweatherguy]

Sunday snow not happening?

[SnowWillarrive]

27 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

If we ever needed a GFS / ECMWF compromise the time is now!  OLM to SEA are on the bubble now unfortunately.  

The good news for King County folks is the ECMWF still has some backwash snow on the back side of the low Tuesday night.  That stuff is often underdone.  Still a decent chance the entire event will be snow, but a fair chance it won't be also.

Looks like we are getting screwed 

[Hawksfan2008]

Best EPS yet for snowfall in the sound. 

[Jbolin]

38 minutes ago, ShawniganLake said:

Graupel on a north wind here now. My 5 year old said it was hail.  She’s in a time out now. 

Way to go dad, she'll never learn otherwise.

[Meatyorologist]

2 hours ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

How was late December 1968 in the upper levels? I know that was a low level beast spawned by somewhat of a glancing blow to our NE, but I would imagine it probably had better upper level support at some point?

[Gummy]

Temps are definitely not dropping as fast as modeled by the WRF, not a big shocker.

 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

So you can imagine what 1-2” of ZR did down here in February 2021. Lol

[North_County]

42 minutes ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

19 in Ferndale, sumas, Lynden.  This outflow is the real deal so hopefully it can move south.

Yes, and the wind is biting pretty good. I'm in a Santa costume for the next hour, so I'm good now. But it was surprisingly brutal when I left the house.....without a jacket.

[Kolk1604]

5 minutes ago, SouthHillFrosty said:

I’m starting to get nervous about this event. 

Don't fret i got your back 

[Cold Snap]

Still getting caught up on everything this morning but just wanted to say I did not record a Sub-40 high today. Temp briefly spiked up to 40 for a few minutes with a decent south wind. Back down to 39 now.