PNW December 2022 - Part II

[Cloud]

Pavement stickage. This escalated quite fast

[Ice_is_Everywhere]

Now it’s snowing.

[snow_wizard]

The plunge of cold air is well ahead of schedule at least down to Sea-Tac now.   I can't until this scene of shitty gloom turns white!

[SouthHillFrosty]

1 minute ago, snow_wizard said:

The plunge of cold air is well ahead of schedule at least down to Sea-Tac now.   I can't until this scene of shitty gloom turns white!

Facts!  Seems about an hour ahead of schedule 

Edited December 20, 2022 by SouthHillFrosty

[Front Ranger]

7 minutes ago, Ice_is_Everywhere said:

33 degree rain. I hate weather.

You're about to switch to snow.

[KingstonWX]

This is some of the heaviest snowfall I've ever seen. Amazing. 

[PuyallupChris]

Lower queen Anne office. Was dumping snow. Went to the bathroom. Came back, mild drizzly rain.  5 minutes later, back to dumping snow. Temp now crashed to 34. Wife says still 41 and very rainy in Puyallup at 400 ft. No idea what is happening or what to expect.

 

 

[Sam]

It’s DUMPING …. rain

[TT-SEA]

Power just went out here for about 30 minutes.    SW wind was crazy strong.    So much rain that our road has deep water in places because it can't run off due to the snowbanks.    Wind has suddenly quieted down though so the low must be past my area now.    We are pretty protected from the north wind out here so not sure what happens next.  

[snow_wizard]

GFS has a nice trend of increasing hang back snow well into the night in S King County and N Pierce Counties on the past few runs.

[Perturbed Member]

3 hours ago, TT-SEA said:

 I guess the ECMWF won in the lead up.   But remember the GFS showed what is actually happening a couple days ago and then blew it at the end.    The GFS and ECMWF switched solutions about 36 hours ago.     If the GFS had stuck to what it was showing a couple days ago it would have been the clear winner.    The ECMWF only figured it out right before it happened.   

Don't forget that only a few days ago the Euro was sending this low into Oregon and showing snow for PDX instead of SEA. Several other models were also way too far south with this system. The GFS was mostly on its own and showed the system going north and developing into a closed and more organized low. It was closer to reality in that regard.

I don't think the GFS can match the euro especially in the short term and on surface details but it certainly did get somethings right too.

[GoldenEars]

My boss is gonna hate my snow pile when he comes in.

[Timmy]

7 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

Sorry running late can’t find my pants 

No one told me I had to wear pants! This is going to be awkward. 

[andrewr]

Just switched to snow in Burien. Probably at SeaTac as well.

[bainbridgekid]

Roads turning white in Downtown Seattle now.

 

[Front Ranger]

1 minute ago, snow_wizard said:

GFS has a nice trend of increasing hang back snow well into the night in S King County and N Pierce Counties on the past few runs.

I'd be surprised if you don't end up with at least a couple inches, Jim.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Today will be a rare flash freeze.

[dhoffine]

42 degrees in Enumclaw, what a joke!  I know I know, it’s the weather but I really had hopes for today.

[snow_wizard]

4 minutes ago, SouthHillFrosty said:

Facts!  Seems about an hour ahead of schedule 

An hour is huge in this case.  And I think it's more than that.  It's also colder than progged where the cold has already settled in.

[snow_wizard]

Just now, dhoffine said:

42 degrees in Enumclaw, what a joke!  I know I know, it’s the weather but I really had hopes for today.

It' not over yet people!

[Guest hawkstwelve]

Had sleet at 3am with a touch of glaze, then it flipped to snow flurries the remainder of the night. Snow started in earnest at 8am and only has now picked up to a about an inch or so an hour. Looking at the radar and westerly flow, the ingredients seem to be there for Convergence Zone Casino.

[SouthHillFrosty]

I have trust issues now for the GFS and don’t believe this will happen.

[TT-SEA]

2 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

GFS has a nice trend of increasing hang back snow well into the night in S King County and N Pierce Counties on the past few runs.

Its not hanging back from this storm... its an arctic front later tonight.   

Here is what the 12Z ECMWF shows overnight...

[Fircrest]

3 hours ago, Cloud said:

Imagine this… more than 170+ flights canceled out of SeaTac largely thanks to the models uncertainty. This is unacceptable and something needs to be done about the GFS.

We arrived at SeaTac from Palm Springs last night at 10 and it was snowing but just wet runways so definitely no reason to cancel or delay unless related to other airport issues.

Meanwhile the SW wind is ripping through Fircrest and 42 this morning.  Pretty disappointed.

[Blizzard777]

Windshift has happened just like that! 
NNW 9 

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Got to work at 8:30 it was 37. Currently 30 and heavy snow. The temp crash behind this thing is impressive and very aggressive.

[xfkirsten]

10 minutes ago, RentonHillTC said:

We thank you for your sacrifice

I ask only that I be remembered fondly, while I am drinking margaritas in 60-70 degree sunny weather.

[Cloud]

Wow! It is really coming down from this next band and blowing sideways

[Doinko]

Euro shows a nice band of snow to start the event on Thursday

 

[dhoffine]

1 minute ago, snow_wizard said:

It' not over yet people!

I would agree with that if the temp was 36 or even 38, but 42, I think we are shut out.

[snow_wizard]

1 minute ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

Today will be a rare flash freeze.

The treasure trove of cold air over the North Interior can sure change things quickly when the gradients go northerly.

[TacomaWx]

1 minute ago, snow_wizard said:

It' not over yet people!

I have a feeling it’s going to get interesting in the next hour in our area. Wind is trying to switch here in Milton. Going between S and N now. 

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

1 minute ago, TT-SEA said:

Its not hanging back from this storm... its an arctic front later tonight.   

Here is what the 12Z ECMWF shows overnight...

will be interesting. Those fronts can drop A bunch of snow fast.

[HoodCanalBridge]

Still dumping snow in Kingston!  This is on the water looking north.

[Seattle]

3 minutes ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

Today will be a rare flash freeze.

In the middle of the day no less!

[snow_wizard]

2 minutes ago, Fircrest said:

We arrived at SeaTac from Palm Springs last night at 10 and it was snowing but just wet runways so definitely no reason to cancel or delay unless related to other airport issues.

Meanwhile the SW wind is ripping through Fircrest and 42 this morning.  Pretty disappointed.

Why are people talking like this is over?  Really bizarre.

[LowerGarfield]

Can anyone post the latest Euro ice maps for Friday in Portland/Gorge? We're on the verge of canceling our plans.

[TT-SEA]

1 minute ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

Today will be a rare flash freeze.

Not sure about that... at least not in Seattle.   ECMWF shows the crash that happened this morning but still shows temps in the 32-34 degree range all night.     I know... the ECMWF was too slow with the wrap around snow this morning.   But it takes a strong arctic front to have a flash freeze.   

Here is the 10 p.m. temps per the 12Z ECMWF...

 

[bishbish777]

Just now, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

will be interesting. Those fronts can drop A bunch of snow fast.

Should be some really high ratio stuff too. 10:1 is probably too low.

[weatherweenie]

13 minutes ago, weatherweenie said:

aaaaaaaand back to rain.

and we're back to snow.

thanks for coming to my Ted talk.