October 2017 PNW Discussion Thread

[Phil]

Greenland still hitting the mass-balance weight room. Making solid gains for a second consecutive year (so far).

 

Not sure we can surpass 2016/17, which was the second largest overall mass gain since 1993, but we're off to a solid start.

 

[TT-SEA]

Cool and unsettled looks to be the theme. Very November 1994ish.

 

1994 has been coming up since the summer.   

[Timmy]

Yeah this is feeling like a winter with only 1 snow event here on the valley floor. 07-08 wasn't that great down here.

based on?

[Phil]

1994 has been coming up since the summer.

That was a Niño, though.

[crf450ish]

Clown range 00z GFS is a throwback to the good 'ole days.

 

http://i724.photobucket.com/albums/ww243/phillywillie/Mobile%20Uploads/FEFAC8B6-815B-484B-8F8A-19EFC8A7C021_zpsvlcthzt6.png

Can you post the current map so we can compare

[TT-SEA]

That was a Niño, though.

 

Yeah... probably not a good match.   But we have mentioned it numerous times since early summer.    Lots of similarities locally to the summer of 2017.   Likely meaningless going forward though.

[BLI snowman]

Yeah this is feeling like a winter with only 1 snow event here on the valley floor. 07-08 wasn't that great down here.

 

A solid event that cuts off south of Keizer also feels likely.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

A solid event that cuts off south of Keizer also feels likely.

Yeah Keizer/Salem and then on the west side down to about Corvallis or so with the cold air dam pushing a bit more cold air westward.

[Phil]

Can you post the current map so we can compare

Trend was towards the 2013-present background state, which is +NAO/NE-Pacific ridge.

 

Still a decent pattern for November, but in January this would be a ridgy/inversion pattern with the lower wavenumber.

 

http://i724.photobucket.com/albums/ww243/phillywillie/Mobile%20Uploads/A9EFCC53-24D8-4DB1-8B3B-D7D44546C61F_zpshdywh4zo.png

[wx_statman]

27 this morning at EUG. Turned out to be a decent clipper, considering temps were as high as 76 in the valley four days ago. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

27 this morning at EUG. Turned out to be a decent clipper, considering temps were as high as 76 in the valley four days ago. 

 

Pretty impressive. I see Salem sneaked in their first freeze of the season too.

[Geos]

Geez - this would be a perfect setup if it were just a hair later in the season with 850s a hair colder.

 

High in BC and a low at the mouth of the Columbia providing fairly good Fraser outflow and enough precip to make it count. Unfortunately, it looks like cold rain for most.

 

 

I know it looks like a great setup. Just don't have that reservoir of cold air built up enough to the north in BC yet.

Low of 34 on Friday night in my forecast. So close...

Wonder if areas near Summit Lake west of Olympia will pick up any snow.

[Geos]

Hood Canal snow event?

 

[van city]

Hood Canal snow event?

 

http://wx.graphics/models/ecmwf/2017103112/nw/ecmwf_acc_snow_nw_132.png

Here's a better map.

[seattleweatherguy]

Here's a better map.

Shows and inch for north king and most of Snohomish county too!

[ShawniganLake]

Hood Canal snow event?

 

http://wx.graphics/models/ecmwf/2017103112/nw/ecmwf_acc_snow_nw_132.png

Really close to a decent event there. They can do a lot with marginal temps.

[Geos]

Really close to a decent event there. They can do a lot with marginal temps.

 

I think you're in a pretty good spot to see accumulating snow.

 

I'm hoping just to see it in the air.

[Geos]

Got my wx station up on WU now.

https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=KWABOTHE144#history

 

Trying to figure out how to shield the instrument from the sun so I don't get high readings in the afternoon when the sun is out, but still avoid covering any part of the solar panels.

[seattleweatherguy]

Hate to burst your bubble but there's nothing more than a trace for most places outside of Whatcom County.

No problem. I gotta learn to read map correctly. My bad

[Kayla]

Looks like they are adding per-state maps on the ECMWF weather.us site. Maps are pulling up blank but I'm assuming that's because they are in the process still as these weren't available earlier this morning.

 

http://wx.graphics/models/ecmwf/ecmwf_usa.php

 

Available now...

[Geos]

SEW not biting on the idea of snow in Bellingham yet. Been watching the forecast grids up there. Right now you have to click on spots over 1000 ft asl to see snow in the forecast.

[ShawniganLake]

I think you're in a pretty good spot to see accumulating snow.

 

I'm hoping just to see it in the air.

Very likely snow in the air at some point. Watching for an inch or 2 Friday or Sunday mornings if we have any type of steady precip around. Sunday morning looks really nice with the outflow setting up and precip moving up from the SW, but that is a long ways away in model land.

[Brian_in_Leavenworth]

Posted this in the November thread, but a met named Michael Clark tweeted about the Euro Weeklies, run a day or two ago.  This is for the 4 weeks of November.

 

[Front Ranger]

The lows seen this AM would have been impressive a week ago. But by now they're nothing compared to 2002, 2003, 1971, etc.

[TT-SEA]

18Z GFS continues to be significantly south of the ECMWF with the system on Saturday night into Sunday... 

 

[Geos]

Really nice afternoon today. Good weather for Trick o' treating.

Sitting at 58 right now. Most trees around where I work in Bothell are already bare.

[Jbolin]

Here's a better map.

If Hood Canal/Bellingham even gets a trace I will never discount the EURO again

[TT-SEA]

Really nice afternoon today. Good weather for Trick o' treating.

Sitting at 58 right now. Most trees around where I work in Bothell are already bare.

 

It will be a perfect evening.

 

Those must be a specific type of non-native tree... most of the trees in the Seattle area and out here still have leaves and still showing great color.   The drive from Bellevue to North Bend this afternoon was spectacular.

[Geos]

It will be a perfect evening.

 

Those must be a specific type of non-native tree... most of the trees in the Seattle area and out here still have leaves and still showing great color.   The drive from Bellevue to North Bend this afternoon was spectacular.

 

There's a lot of Sweet Gums and Sugar Maples along the roads here.

[Jesse]

Looks like PDX will end up -0.6 for October.

 

Happy Halloween!

[snow_wizard]

SEW not biting on the idea of snow in Bellingham yet. Been watching the forecast grids up there. Right now you have to click on spots over 1000 ft asl to see snow in the forecast.

 

That is just plain chicken IMO.  Bellingham will probably see some.

[snow_wizard]

Looks like PDX will end up -0.6 for October.

 

Happy Halloween!

 

Good enough.  Very good when you consider how warm the finish was.

[snow_wizard]

Posted this in the November thread, but a met named Michael Clark tweeted about the Euro Weeklies, run a day or two ago.  This is for the 4 weeks of November.

 

DNemEweX4AI83zo.jpg

 

That is the classic shape of negative anomaly field you see in our great winters.  Cold anoms along the northern tier west of the Great Lakes.

[snow_wizard]

The lows seen this AM would have been impressive a week ago. But by now they're nothing compared to 2002, 2003, 1971, etc.

 

Very true.  It dropped to 32 here which is good enough for now.

[snow_wizard]

Got my wx station up on WU now.

https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=KWABOTHE144#history

 

Trying to figure out how to shield the instrument from the sun so I don't get high readings in the afternoon when the sun is out, but still avoid covering any part of the solar panels.

 

That can be really difficult.  I have never had good luck using shielding in direct sunlight.  You might try using using two layers of shielding with a gap in between with fan aspiration to give good air flow.  Keeping the outer layer very clean and as white as possible will help.

[VancouverIslandSouth]

Successive model runs have pushed up the timing of this event. It's now looking colder but drier up here going into Friday morning. Temperatures should be decently cold for snow with 925mb temps approaching -3C ~ -4C but getting moisture at the same time may again be a problem.

[snow_wizard]

The 12z WRF indicates clearing and cold Sunday night.  It is showing some really impressive low temps in a lot of places.

[VancouverIslandSouth]

The 12z WRF indicates clearing and cold Sunday night.  It is showing some really impressive low temps in a lot of places.

 

Temperatures look pretty chilly at the 925mb level for northern areas. There's a clear Fraser outflow signature:

 

[Phil]

Got my wx station up on WU now.

https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=KWABOTHE144#history

 

Trying to figure out how to shield the instrument from the sun so I don't get high readings in the afternoon when the sun is out, but still avoid covering any part of the solar panels.

Awesome, look forward to tracking your obs. If you have a fan aspirated system, the unit should be fine in the sun. Even without that, the cooling fins on the station are designed for maximum ventilation, so as long as your station isn't sitting over asphalt or anything else that will absorb/conduct heat to the atmosphere, you should be fine, I suspect.

 

Also, you'll need the station in the open if you have a tipping bucket rain gauge attached to the ISS unit.

[Phil]

FWIW, your UV index numbers are reading in the thousands, for whatever reason.