SnowWillarrive Posted January 11, 2023 Report Share Posted January 11, 2023 15 minutes ago, TT-SEA said: In its natural state... western fires and smoke were much worse than what we see today. Its not even close. We decided in the 1940s to go full board on fire suppression and that worked well for about 60 years. But you can only hold back nature so long and now we have a massive fire deficit to pay back. And a warming climate is accelerating that payback. The absolute worst fire years now pale in comparison to acreage burned before we started messing with nature. In other words... what you and others remember from childhood was unfortunately never going to be sustainable. 100+ years ago fires were much worse. People today would think it was the apocalypse. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tyler Mode Posted January 11, 2023 Report Share Posted January 11, 2023 I shoulda went somewhere this morning...nice sunrise complete with a rainbow. 7 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted January 11, 2023 Report Share Posted January 11, 2023 10 minutes ago, Tyler Mode said: I shoulda went somewhere this morning...nice sunrise complete with a rainbow. Second morning in a row here with rain ending just before dawn and clearing skies as the sun comes up. Good timing. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted January 11, 2023 Report Share Posted January 11, 2023 43 degrees. Wet deck. .01” on the day. .96” for the month. Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phishy Wx Posted January 11, 2023 Report Share Posted January 11, 2023 surprise bonus snow this morning. was suppose to be rain or mixed about 1/4" still dumping winter just letting us know its still winter 6 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted January 11, 2023 Report Share Posted January 11, 2023 Not a bad Gfs run. Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RentonHill Posted January 11, 2023 Report Share Posted January 11, 2023 6 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said: Not a bad Gfs run. Jim's piggy back ridge... @snow_wizard dont lose hope my man!! 6 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doinko Posted January 11, 2023 Report Share Posted January 11, 2023 Chilly pattern toward the end on the 12z GFS 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LowerGarfield Posted January 11, 2023 Report Share Posted January 11, 2023 2 hours ago, AlTahoe said: Work parking lot snow berm is getting intimidating! You should share that snow berm picture with the dog on this site that you posted on WW. Almost looked like Moss Man's house. 1 Quote Garfield County/Pomeroy, WA: 2023-2024 Snowfall totals: 14.3 inches HIghest snow total (per event): 5.8 inches total 1/11/24 - 1/12/24. Most recent accumulation (non trace): 0.20 inches on 2/26/24 Days with trace or more snowfall: 12/01/23 (0.60), 1/8/24 (1.0), 1/10/24 (3.5), 1/11/23 (3.5 inches with Thundersnow; separate event from prior day), 1/12/24 (2.30). 1/14/24 (T), 1/17/24 (1.20 inches), 1/18/24 (1.5 inches), 1/19/24 (0.20), 2/09/24 (0.30), 2/26/24 (0.20-mainly graupel), 4/5/24 (T) First Freeze: 10/27/2023 Last Sub freezing Day: 1/20/24 (12th) (8 days in a row from 1/12/24-1/20/24) Coldest low: -12F (!!!!!!!!) (1/12/24) Last White Christmas: 2022 at my location (on ground) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
joelgombiner Posted January 11, 2023 Report Share Posted January 11, 2023 2 hours ago, TT-SEA said: In its natural state... western fires and smoke were much worse than what we see today. Its not even close. We decided in the 1940s to go full board on fire suppression and that worked well for about 60 years. But you can only hold back nature so long and now we have a massive fire deficit to pay back. And a warming climate is accelerating that payback. The absolute worst fire years now pale in comparison to acreage burned before we started messing with nature. In other words... what you and others remember from childhood was unfortunately never going to be sustainable. I hope Cliff Mass and the Seattle Times read this the next time they try to write about wildfires. Great explanation that incorporates multiple causes. 1 Quote Useful weather links Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cascadia_Wx Posted January 11, 2023 Report Share Posted January 11, 2023 It’s coming. #colderJanuarythan2022 2 1 Quote Summer grows while Winter goes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian_in_Leavenworth Posted January 11, 2023 Report Share Posted January 11, 2023 9 minutes ago, LowerGarfield said: You should share that snow berm picture with the dog on this site that you posted on WW. Almost looked like Moss Man's house. Moss Man doesn't get berms like that, at least not from street plowing. I do, though, and it makes getting in and out of your driveway a real challenge. The driveway gets narrower and narrower, and you can't see into the street that you are backing into. Shoveling and snowblowing becomes a challenge when you have to throw the snow over a 7-10 foot berm. And if you don't get it over, it just slides right down to where it was. So far about 100 inches of snow this winter with 3 to 5 more coming. 6 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian_in_Leavenworth Posted January 11, 2023 Report Share Posted January 11, 2023 13 minutes ago, joelgombiner said: I hope Cliff Mass and the Seattle Times read this the next time they try to write about wildfires. Great explanation that incorporates multiple causes. He already has written about it https://cliffmass.blogspot.com/2022/09/wildfires-are-old-normal-for-pacific.html?m=1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted January 11, 2023 Report Share Posted January 11, 2023 Cliff says La Nina is about done... https://cliffmass.blogspot.com/2023/01/la-ninas-days-are-numbered.html 1 Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted January 11, 2023 Report Share Posted January 11, 2023 Pretty good GFS run. 5 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
joelgombiner Posted January 11, 2023 Report Share Posted January 11, 2023 1 minute ago, Brian_in_Leavenworth said: He already has written about it https://cliffmass.blogspot.com/2022/09/wildfires-are-old-normal-for-pacific.html?m=1 He downplays the global warming effect with no evidence. Formal attribution studies have been done on this showing that global warming is an important factor, along with human activity, ecology, and forest management. Cliff uses anecdotes and hand-waving to make his points. That's fine for a blog, a forum chat or a bar. 4 Quote Useful weather links Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phishy Wx Posted January 11, 2023 Report Share Posted January 11, 2023 5 minutes ago, joelgombiner said: He downplays the global warming effect with no evidence. Formal attribution studies have been done on this showing that global warming is an important factor, along with human activity, ecology, and forest management. Cliff uses anecdotes and hand-waving to make his points. That's fine for a blog, a forum chat or a bar. Mass is a rube, no shock there 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cascadia_Wx Posted January 11, 2023 Report Share Posted January 11, 2023 9 minutes ago, joelgombiner said: He downplays the global warming effect with no evidence. Formal attribution studies have been done on this showing that global warming is an important factor, along with human activity, ecology, and forest management. Cliff uses anecdotes and hand-waving to make his points. That's fine for a blog, a forum chat or a bar. And Tim’s post was different how? Quote Summer grows while Winter goes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
oceanmom Posted January 11, 2023 Report Share Posted January 11, 2023 2 hours ago, AlTahoe said: Work parking lot snow berm is getting intimidating! Thank you for the pictures! My niece lives near you I think (Myers area) and works at the hospital so I love seeing what they are seeing! 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
joelgombiner Posted January 11, 2023 Report Share Posted January 11, 2023 2 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said: And Tim’s post was different how? It gave a more prominent role to global warming, alongside forest management, which is in line with the findings in the peer-reviewed literature (as I remember it). 1 Quote Useful weather links Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doinko Posted January 11, 2023 Report Share Posted January 11, 2023 18 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said: Pretty good GFS run. GEM looks to be going somewhere similar at the end 2 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted January 11, 2023 Report Share Posted January 11, 2023 15 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said: It’s coming. #colderJanuarythan2022 Seems aspirational. Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cascadia_Wx Posted January 11, 2023 Report Share Posted January 11, 2023 2 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said: Seems aspirational. I think we can do it Andrew Quote Summer grows while Winter goes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted January 11, 2023 Report Share Posted January 11, 2023 47 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said: And Tim’s post was different how? How would you describe the situation any differently? Decades of fire suppression and a warming climate contributing to an increase in fires. That is hyperbole and hand waving? Seems pretty obvious and factual to me. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RentonHill Posted January 11, 2023 Report Share Posted January 11, 2023 GEFS making things interesting. Lets see where it goes! 7 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phishy Wx Posted January 11, 2023 Report Share Posted January 11, 2023 should I start paying attention to the models again yet? pepto in view? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted January 11, 2023 Report Share Posted January 11, 2023 44 minutes ago, joelgombiner said: It gave a more prominent role to global warming, alongside forest management, which is in line with the findings in the peer-reviewed literature (as I remember it). Apparently Jesse has all the answers and those don't involve the factors we mentioned... which include decades of fire suppression policies and climate change. I would love to hear what is really involved from the true expert. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FroYoBro Posted January 11, 2023 Report Share Posted January 11, 2023 Already 52 degrees here before 11am. January! 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlTahoe Posted January 11, 2023 Report Share Posted January 11, 2023 55 minutes ago, oceanmom said: Thank you for the pictures! My niece lives near you I think (Myers area) and works at the hospital so I love seeing what they are seeing! That picture if from the Hospital parking lot! 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cascadia_Wx Posted January 11, 2023 Report Share Posted January 11, 2023 12z GEFS through day 12 or so. Nice to see the mid range troughy period getting expanded upon in recent runs. 5 Quote Summer grows while Winter goes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted January 11, 2023 Report Share Posted January 11, 2023 2 minutes ago, FroYoBro said: Already 52 degrees here before 11am. January! Rain on the way 1 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rubus Leucodermis Posted January 11, 2023 Report Share Posted January 11, 2023 1 hour ago, joelgombiner said: He downplays the global warming effect with no evidence. Formal attribution studies have been done on this showing that global warming is an important factor, along with human activity, ecology, and forest management. Cliff uses anecdotes and hand-waving to make his points. That's fine for a blog, a forum chat or a bar. Tim shared a peer-reviewed study that was very comprehensive in its methodology. IIRC you had to go back to the Little Ice Age to find a period of time as fire-free as most of the 20th century was. It looked to me like a very comprehensive study and my retraction searches came up dry (i.e. no retractions, its conclusions still stand). 1 Quote It's called clown range for a reason. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RentonHill Posted January 11, 2023 Report Share Posted January 11, 2023 14 minutes ago, Phishy Wx said: should I start paying attention to the models again yet? pepto in view? Might be time to start looking at the normal ensemble runs instead of the long range ones. GEFS shows a good dump of cold air into NAm but it will get pushed east (at least initially) with out more established blocking on our side? i'm just guessing. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted January 11, 2023 Report Share Posted January 11, 2023 Just now, RentonHillTC said: Might be time to start looking at the normal ensemble runs instead of the long range ones. GEFS shows a good dump of cold air into NAm but it will get pushed east (at least initially) with out more established blocking on our side? i'm just guessing. Just nice to be back in the game. 3 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted January 11, 2023 Report Share Posted January 11, 2023 12Z ECMWF says some snow for Randy with that trough later next week... 3 1 1 1 Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted January 11, 2023 Report Share Posted January 11, 2023 7 minutes ago, TT-SEA said: 12Z ECMWF says some snow for Randy with that trough later next week... I’m in the blue! 2 2 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RentonHill Posted January 11, 2023 Report Share Posted January 11, 2023 through end of the run. promising! Canadian ensembles show some cold air further east with blocking centered over us instead...probably more realistic than assuming perfectly placed blocking for us immediately. 6 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RentonHill Posted January 11, 2023 Report Share Posted January 11, 2023 GEFS vs CMCE at the end of the run. lol 1 5 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TacomaWx Posted January 11, 2023 Report Share Posted January 11, 2023 3 minutes ago, RentonHillTC said: through end of the run. promising! Canadian ensembles show some cold air further east with blocking centered over us instead...probably more realistic than assuming perfectly placed blocking for us immediately. Yeah you’d think we would start out with a ridge over us…or just offshore before retrograding west later on. 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rubus Leucodermis Posted January 11, 2023 Report Share Posted January 11, 2023 10 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said: I’m in the blue! I’m in the gray once you correct for terrain bleed! 1 Quote It's called clown range for a reason. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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