Karl Bonner Posted January 7, 2018 Report Share Posted January 7, 2018 Only a little over 2 hours until the Stoner Cuz (06z) maybe-possibly-just-hopefully gives us a taste of an arctic blast, or at least wet snow in the hills? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted January 7, 2018 Report Share Posted January 7, 2018 The ECMWF ensemble continues the idea of dumping the Siberian ULL into the NW Pacific later in the month which is responsible for pumping up the ridge being shown over the NC Pacific. It indicates the low will continue to dig off the coast of Asia which would slowly amplify the ridge and push it eastward. It's also interesting to note that two of the past 4 CFS runs show Arctic air for us in late January. That is new. 1 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted January 7, 2018 Report Share Posted January 7, 2018 Only a little over 2 hours until the Stoner Cuz (06z) maybe-possibly-just-hopefully gives us a taste of an arctic blast, or at least wet snow in the hills? I'm thinking at least one of the next 4 GFS runs will give us a tease. Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted January 7, 2018 Report Share Posted January 7, 2018 Yes, of course back then they didn't have the green screen behind them he had a 4 sided chalk board with huge piece of chalk. We even had a t.v. caster up here that used chalk and a chalk board with a map on it. Ray Ramsey used chalk. I clearly remember he would always write in the temps for the BC interior when a cold wave was on the way. It is incredible to think how far we have come since then. That having been said it had a certain quaint aspect that is missing from today's media. Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted January 7, 2018 Report Share Posted January 7, 2018 Oh yeah I had no idea on that one, I just remember my dad saying that Ray Ramsey would say “snow snifters” a lot. He was one colorful guy! How could anyone ever forget snow snifters? I think I remember he wore "test pattern" suits also. Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 7, 2018 Report Share Posted January 7, 2018 We have about 13-14 inches, the winter sports club on the other side of town reports 15 inches. Not a huge amount, but it is a solid base, since that is based on about 25 inches or so. I have lived here since 2013, and last winter at one point we had very close to a 36 inch base on the ground. At that time it had probably snowed close to 90 inches overall (we ended up with about 109 inches), but with compacting, evaporation, melting, etc., it was at 36 inches, but a very solid 36 inches that you could walk on and not sink in that much. I know other winters they have had far more, and some far less. That's a nice amount to have on the ground. That's about the most I've ever seen on the ground myself back in the Midwest. I know it gets to be a bit much to shovel/snowblow over the 2' mark.When does Leavenworth usually get its first snowfall that stays around? Thanksgiving...Do you usually have a snow cover all winter? Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eastvanisle Posted January 7, 2018 Report Share Posted January 7, 2018 Did anyone growing up have a cable community channel with weather instruments and would sneak into the living room at night to watch them during a snow or cold weather event. Ours did up in Vancouver B.C. back in the late 60's early 70's they were the dial type. Then about the mid 70's they changed to a digital board read out that was cool. Ya, I remember those. It was on channel 10 in victoria in the 70s Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TigerWoodsLibido Posted January 7, 2018 Report Share Posted January 7, 2018 I think this will be a classic Oregon windstorm/Washington snowstorm event. I'd love that ridge to amplify at the perfect time to then drop that low back down the coast and come inland around Port Orford or so. Quote Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats: Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024) Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024) Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024) Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024) Total snowfall: 0.0" Total ice: 2.25” Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9") Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F) Last White Christmas: 1990 Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0 Personal Stats: Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F) Last White Christmas: 2008 Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0" Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4 Venmo GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2 My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope 24 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Karl Bonner Posted January 7, 2018 Report Share Posted January 7, 2018 This is waaay too early to speculate...but wouldn't it be wild if for once, the coldest airmass of the season came after March 1? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TigerWoodsLibido Posted January 7, 2018 Report Share Posted January 7, 2018 This is waaay too early to speculate...but wouldn't it be wild if for once, the coldest airmass of the season came after March 1?Some sloppy snow that melts by noon? No thanks. 1 Quote Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats: Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024) Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024) Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024) Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024) Total snowfall: 0.0" Total ice: 2.25” Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9") Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F) Last White Christmas: 1990 Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0 Personal Stats: Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F) Last White Christmas: 2008 Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0" Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4 Venmo GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2 My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope 24 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BLI snowman Posted January 7, 2018 Report Share Posted January 7, 2018 This is waaay too early to speculate...but wouldn't it be wild if for once, the coldest airmass of the season came after March 1? Happened in 1906! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BLI snowman Posted January 7, 2018 Report Share Posted January 7, 2018 Here's a cool January 1996 video, part of a segment from KATU that I saw posted on Youtube covering the cold/snow portion of that winter. Fun times! https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dZKeC9tfaRo&t=895s 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted January 7, 2018 Report Share Posted January 7, 2018 6z GFS Op trending toward the more southern track the EURO/UKMET shows. The low is much further southeast than previous 4-5 runs. I created an Animated GIF of the past 6 GFS Op runs showing a clear southward trend with that low. This also may pull colder air into southern BC for a snowy surprise for those folks maybe down into northern Washington.https://imgur.com/iuRQ16g Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted January 7, 2018 Report Share Posted January 7, 2018 Ridge over us is much, much stronger on 6z Op Days 5-9. I don't like that, but whatever. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted January 7, 2018 Report Share Posted January 7, 2018 06z is a good run. Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TigerWoodsLibido Posted January 7, 2018 Report Share Posted January 7, 2018 Meh. Still no action down here on the GFS. Quote Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats: Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024) Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024) Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024) Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024) Total snowfall: 0.0" Total ice: 2.25” Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9") Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F) Last White Christmas: 1990 Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0 Personal Stats: Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F) Last White Christmas: 2008 Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0" Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4 Venmo GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2 My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope 24 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted January 7, 2018 Report Share Posted January 7, 2018 Meh. Still no action down here on the GFS. Each run is a small step in the right direction. Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted January 7, 2018 Report Share Posted January 7, 2018 Ensembles are pretty much the same. Relatively meh.... Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian_in_Leavenworth Posted January 7, 2018 Report Share Posted January 7, 2018 That's a nice amount to have on the ground. That's about the most I've ever seen on the ground myself back in the Midwest. I know it gets to be a bit much to shovel/snowblow over the 2' mark.When does Leavenworth usually get its first snowfall that stays around? Thanksgiving...Do you usually have a snow cover all winter?Often we get snow in November that does not last. The first "permanent" snow can be anywhere between mid November to mid December. It was late this year, with snow in early December that lasted for two weeks and was just about gone until December 19th, but the average date of the first permanent snow is early December. And after that we have snow on the ground until March. We average 94 inches. There are exceptions, like 2013-2014, where we only had a bit of snow on the ground until mid Winter, but that is rare. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted January 7, 2018 Report Share Posted January 7, 2018 Often we get snow in November that does not last. The first "permanent" snow can be anywhere between mid November to mid December. It was late this year, with snow in early December that lasted for two weeks and was just about gone until December 19th, but the average date of the first permanent snow is early December. And after that we have snow on the ground until March. We average 94 inches. There are exceptions, like 2013-2014, where we only had a bit of snow on the ground until mid Winter, but that is rare. I was in Leavenworth around December 20, 2011 and there wasn't much snow, but I think it had been on the ground since late November. The town was definitely stuck in an icy inversion when I was there. Temps stayed in the mid/upper-20s the whole 3 days I was there with dense fog. Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
westcoastexpat Posted January 7, 2018 Report Share Posted January 7, 2018 Anyone else here going to AMS in Austin? I'm flying out tonight. Would be neat to meet up. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted January 7, 2018 Report Share Posted January 7, 2018 12z runs about to initialize. Time to keep that forward momentum going! Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
luvssnow_spokane Posted January 7, 2018 Report Share Posted January 7, 2018 12z runs about to initialize. Time to keep that forward momentum going!I am sure the low will settle into a more northly track as things get closer. Pretty routine outcome with this setup. Quote My Weather Station https://tempestwx.com/station/61434 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted January 7, 2018 Report Share Posted January 7, 2018 12z runs about to initialize. Time to keep that forward momentum going!Nice ridge next weekend on the 12Z GFS. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
luvssnow_spokane Posted January 7, 2018 Report Share Posted January 7, 2018 This will be wonderful to get daffodils and roses started early. Another typica January is on track! I am so glad the east coast is making up for the past 20 years of lackluster winters this year. It would have been tragic to see them get left out again. Quote My Weather Station https://tempestwx.com/station/61434 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted January 7, 2018 Report Share Posted January 7, 2018 Upper levels are cooling on #MLK. #verification! Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
luvssnow_spokane Posted January 7, 2018 Report Share Posted January 7, 2018 Nice ridge next weekend on the 12Z GFS. it is a relief to finally have that ridge sitting directly over us. Such a relief as it has been a really long time!!. I am sure someone has some Stats on ridge placement because having it form and stay right over us like that has to a once in a 100 year event or longer. Exciting! Quote My Weather Station https://tempestwx.com/station/61434 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted January 7, 2018 Report Share Posted January 7, 2018 12z GFS looks like it is prolonging the cold in the upper midwest and delaying our pattern change a bit. Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighlandExperience Posted January 7, 2018 Report Share Posted January 7, 2018 it is a relief to finally have that ridge sitting directly over us. Such a relief as it has been a really long time!!. I am sure someone has some Stats on ridge placement because having it form and stay right over us like that has to a once in a 100 year event or longer. Exciting! Haven’t we had this problem quite a bit in recent winters? I guess it’s a risk we take with lots of blocking Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted January 7, 2018 Report Share Posted January 7, 2018 Upper levels are cooling on #MLK. #verification! Indeed... flash freeze? There is some frigid air just off the coast of Oregon that afternoon! Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
luvssnow_spokane Posted January 7, 2018 Report Share Posted January 7, 2018 Haven’t we had this problem quite a bit in recent winters? I guess it’s a risk we take with lots of blockingIt was Sarcasm... yes been a problem for many years off and on. Quote My Weather Station https://tempestwx.com/station/61434 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted January 7, 2018 Report Share Posted January 7, 2018 For those keeping score... the 12Z GEM agrees on the ridge for next weekend. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted January 7, 2018 Report Share Posted January 7, 2018 Sure wish the rain would stop for at least 10min at some point this weekend... Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted January 7, 2018 Report Share Posted January 7, 2018 For those keeping score... the 12Z GEM agrees on the ridge for next weekend. This post just prompted Bryant to rip off another one of his toe nails. Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted January 7, 2018 Report Share Posted January 7, 2018 12z GFS looks like it is prolonging the cold in the upper midwest and delaying our pattern change a bit. Example of GFS slowly backing off... Here is the 12Z GFS from yesterday morning for at day 12: And here is the new 12Z GFS on the same day: Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Farmboy Posted January 7, 2018 Report Share Posted January 7, 2018 For those keeping score... the 12Z GEM agrees on the ridge for next weekend. You forgot to add the smiley face after your sentence. Quote "Avoiding unwanted weather is a key element of happiness." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
luvssnow_spokane Posted January 7, 2018 Report Share Posted January 7, 2018 Example of GFS slowly backing off... Here is the 12Z GFS from yesterday morning for at day 11: And here is the new 12Z GFS on the same day: You can count on that outcome about 90% of the time... typical... Quote My Weather Station https://tempestwx.com/station/61434 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighlandExperience Posted January 7, 2018 Report Share Posted January 7, 2018 Indeed... flash freeze? There is some frigid air just off the coast of Oregon that afternoon! Colder than mars in Texas 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted January 7, 2018 Report Share Posted January 7, 2018 If you extrapolate the 12Z GFS beyond 17 days and then re-configure the pattern in your mind to something better... you could imagine a major arctic blast. <_> Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
liquidsnow Posted January 7, 2018 Report Share Posted January 7, 2018 We definitely need another ridge. Hopefully we get a dirty ridge so we can get some 48 degree drizzle. I think I saw a Cherry Blossom bud yesterday. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Join the conversation
You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.