PNW February 2023 Weather Discussion - Meteorological winter finale

[TacomaWx]

Based on the models…wouldn’t be too surprised to see some lowland snow Monday/Tuesday in some places. 

[MossMan]

Almost an hour since the last post…Must be the calm before the snowy madness! 

[T-Town]

Extreme dew!!

[TacomaWx]

3 minutes ago, MossMan said:

Almost an hour since the last post…Must be the calm before the snowy madness! 

I haven’t been on much or paying much attention to the models…kinda surprised more people aren’t interested with Monday/Tuesday. Doesn’t look like anything crazy and probably localized but there likely will be some people who do score especially in favored spots. 

[Prairiedog]

No frogs here either.  Surprisingly late.  Usually I get some meager groans by early Feb.  Water temps have been chilly but it's more of a phototaxic thing,  Rumor is alarmists think croaking causes more CO2 than cows producing methane.  There might be a hit out on frogs so for now they're keeping it quiet.  Turkey Vultures should be here by the end of this month(maybe sooner), Hummers (Rufus) middle of March, and Ospreys by April 1.  They're coming!  I need one more shot at winter first.  All I've had is some slush on my windshield.  Been rough.  No rain of consequence either to pop the rivers.  It's made my Steelhead season meager.  I don't see much rain on the horizon either to really push the rivers up. 

[T-Town]

So you’re saying there’s a chance. 

[TacomaWx]

2 minutes ago, T-Town said:

So you’re saying there’s a chance. 

It mostly depends on where the convergence zone activity sets up Monday night. With NW flow it definitely could set up further south over king county. But I’m sure Randy will get 3-16” 

[MossMan]

4 minutes ago, T-Town said:

So you’re saying there’s a chance. 

That is a lot of zeros! 

[Cascadia_Wx]

Ended up with a 53/41 day yesterday. Morning started out chilly and rainy but skies cleared by noon and temps became quite mild again. 

Clearing at times overnight with a low of 35. Mostly cloudy and 37 currently.

[T-Town]

2 minutes ago, MossMan said:

That is a lot of zeros! 

Yeah the text gives you hope and then the chart crushes your dreams. 

[T-Town]

5 minutes ago, TacomaWx said:

It mostly depends on where the convergence zone activity sets up Monday night. With NW flow it definitely could set up further south over king county. But I’m sure Randy will get 3-16” 

I plan to take my standard approach and expect nothing and maybe be pleasantly surprised by a few flakes. 

[SouthHillFrosty]

10in average!

[Rubus Leucodermis]

Four years ago today I was wrapping up an insanely snowy spell on Bainbridge Island.

 

[TacomaWx]

Just now, T-Town said:

I plan to take my standard approach and expect nothing and maybe be pleasantly surprised by a few flakes. 

It’s worked out pretty good so far this winter. Pretty much every event looked like it would miss the south sound this winter but then ended up working out somehow…despite all the snows being fairly light. 

[Rubus Leucodermis]

2 minutes ago, SouthHillFrosty said:

10in average!

Around a foot here!

[Cold Snap]

27 minutes ago, TacomaWx said:

I haven’t been on much or paying much attention to the models…kinda surprised more people aren’t interested with Monday/Tuesday. Doesn’t look like anything crazy and probably localized but there likely will be some people who do score especially in favored spots. 

I’m honestly kind of excited for the Monday/Tuesday event with convection and convergence zones in play you never know what can happen.

[TacomaWx]

2 minutes ago, Cold Snap said:

I’m honestly kind of excited for the Monday/Tuesday event with convection and convergence zones in play you never know what can happen.

Sometimes we get the “double c-zone” with NW flow. Convergence develops off the Olympic mountains and hits the central sound…then also off of Vancouver island at the same time targeting the north sound. 

[SouthHillFrosty]

[Christensen87]

10 minutes ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

Four years ago today I was wrapping up an insanely snowy spell on Bainbridge Island.

 

Hopefully we look like this in 2 weeks. 

[Cold Snap]

Currently 36.4 after a low of 33. So close to getting my 50th freeze but it looks like I will get that next week.

[TacomaWx]

6 minutes ago, Christensen87 said:

Hopefully we look like this in 2 weeks. 

Unfortunately once we get into the 2nd half of February big heavy lowland snows become pretty difficult.  Something like 2011 would be amazing although not everyone won with that one. We had 7” here while there was almost nothing in Seattle. One of the rare times my grandparents at 900’ in graham had way less snow than us. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

12z kinda stunk.

[Jbolin]

37 minutes ago, SouthHillFrosty said:

10in average!

Ha, yer mom

[SnowWillarrive]

27 minutes ago, SouthHillFrosty said:

If we get snow early in the week, it will make any long range stuff more believable. 

[TacomaWx]

My boss has not been pleased with the lack of rain this fall/winter. Has started getting slow at work with the lack of water to treat. Thankfully still getting atleast 40-50 hours a week but was hoping for much more this winter. He keeps asking me when we will actually start to get significant rains…I told him one spring arrives if I had to guess. 

[MWG]

Still NWS Medford predicting less than an inch. 

[Doinko]

 

[Cascadia_Wx]

52 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

12z kinda stunk.

 

[Doinko]

Euro is better for Willamette Valley for Tuesday/Wednesday

[TacomaWx]

2 minutes ago, Doinko said:

 

Looking at the models the timing of precip down there Tuesday morning actually looks favorable. 

[Cold Snap]

Euro looks good for the WV! Kinda skunks puget sound though

[Doinko]

2 minutes ago, TacomaWx said:

Looking at the models the timing of precip down there Tuesday morning actually looks favorable. 

Probably better for the South Valley but I'm l liking what the GFS has started to show. The AFD is pretty interesting

But, if this low does materialize and move across the
coast range as some models are showing, areas near the low and just
to its north could find themselves in the sweet spot for enhanced
snow, even at low elevations.

 

 

[TacomaWx]

@Rubus Leucodermis “wiLL TrENd norTH”

[Doinko]

For what it's worth the NAM shows it too.

 

[Rubus Leucodermis]

1 minute ago, TacomaWx said:

@Rubus Leucodermis “wiLL TrENd norTH”

As all quality winter storm systems do.

[Cold Snap]

I really hope you guys down there can get a decent event out of this. There really hasn’t been a good event for the WV this winter. It feels like that one is kinda sneaking up on you guys.

[SnarkyGoblin]

21 minutes ago, TacomaWx said:

My boss has not been pleased with the lack of rain this fall/winter. Has started getting slow at work with the lack of water to treat. Thankfully still getting atleast 40-50 hours a week but was hoping for much more this winter. He keeps asking me when we will actually start to get significant rains…I told him one spring arrives if I had to guess. 

Lol.  Was being a weather nerd a job requirement?

[Rubus Leucodermis]

Just now, Cold Snap said:

I really hope you guys down there can get a decent event out of this. There really hasn’t been a good event for the WV this winter. It feels like that one is kinda sneaking up on you guys.

Tiger will get at least 10" but say it didn’t count because it failed to come with a subfreezing high, the snow was too wet, or something.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Starting to think this could be the real deal. 

[SnowWillarrive]

5 minutes ago, TacomaWx said:

@Rubus Leucodermis “wiLL TrENd norTH”

Don’t want to waste all that snow on Centralia.